Identificação de modelos polinomiais narx utilizando algoritmos combinados de detecção de estrutura e estimação de parâmetros com aplicações práticas

A modelagem de processos industriais tem auxiliado na produção e minimização de custos, permitindo a previsão dos comportamentos futuros do sistema, supervisão de processos e projeto de controladores. Ao observar os benefícios proporcionados pela modelagem, objetiva-se primeiramente, nesta dissertação, apresentar uma metodologia de identificação de modelos não-lineares com estrutura NARX, a partir da implementação de algoritmos combinados de detecção de estrutura e estimação de parâmetros. Inicialmente, será ressaltada a importância da identificação de sistemas na otimização de processos industriais, especificamente a escolha do modelo para representar adequadamente as dinâmicas do sistema. Em seguida, será apresentada uma breve revisão das etapas que compõem a identificação de sistemas. Na sequência, serão apresentados os métodos fundamentais para detecção de estrutura (Modificado Gram- Schmidt) e estimação de parâmetros (Método dos Mínimos Quadrados e Método dos Mínimos Quadrados Estendido) de modelos. No trabalho será também realizada, através dos algoritmos implementados, a identificação de dois processos industriais distintos representados por uma planta de nível didática, que possibilita o controle de nível e vazão, e uma planta de processamento primário de petróleo simulada, que tem como objetivo representar um tratamento primário do petróleo que ocorre em plataformas petrolíferas. A dissertação é finalizada com uma avaliação dos desempenhos dos modelos obtidos, quando comparados com o sistema. A partir desta avaliação, será possível observar se os modelos identificados são capazes de representar as características estáticas e dinâmicas dos sistemas apresentados nesta dissertação

On the multicomponent polynomial solution models

The present study addresses the problem of predicting the properties of multicomponent systems from those of corresponding binary systems. Two types of multicomponent polynomial models have been analysed. A probabilistic interpretation of the parameters of the Polynomial model, which explicitly relates them with the Gibbs free energies of the generalised quasichemical reactions, is proposed. The presented treatment provides a theoretical justification for such parameters. A methodology of estimating the ternary interaction parameter from the binary ones is presented. The methodology provides a way in which the power series multicomponent models, where no projection is required, could be incorporated into the Calphad approach.

The Role of Plant Primary and Secondary Metabolites in Root-Herbivore Behaviour, Nutrition and Physiology

Many insect herbivores feed on belowground plant tissues. In this chapter, we discuss how they have adapted to deal with root primary and secondary metabolites. It is becoming evident that root herbivores can use root volatiles and exudates for host location and foraging. Their complex sensory apparatus suggests a sophisticated recognition and signal transduction system. Furthermore, endogenous metabolites trigger attractive or repellent responses in root feeders, indicating that they may specifically fine-tune food uptake to meet their dietary needs. Little evidence for direct toxic effects of root secondary metabolites has accumulated so far, indicating high prevalence of tolerance mechanisms. Root herbivores furthermore facilitate the entry of soil microbes into the roots, which may influence root nutritional quality. Investigating the role of plant metabolites in an ecologically and physiologically relevant context will be crucial to refine our current models on root-herbivore physiology and behaviour in the future.

Forward and backward least angle regression for nonlinear system identification

A forward and backward least angle regression (LAR) algorithm is proposed to construct the nonlinear autoregressive model with exogenous inputs (NARX) that is widely used to describe a large class of nonlinear dynamic systems. The main objective of this paper is to improve model sparsity and generalization performance of the original forward LAR algorithm. This is achieved by introducing a replacement scheme using an additional backward LAR stage. The backward stage replaces insignificant model terms selected by forward LAR with more significant ones, leading to an improved model in terms of the model compactness and performance. A numerical example to construct four types of NARX models, namely polynomials, radial basis function (RBF) networks, neuro fuzzy and wavelet networks, is presented to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed technique in comparison with some popular methods.

Identificação e comparação entre controle preditivo com modelo não linear e PI sintonizados com PSO em sistema de separação gravitacional de águia-óleo

The separation methods are reduced applications as a result of the operational costs, the low output and the long time to separate the uids. But, these treatment methods are important because of the need for extraction of unwanted contaminants in the oil production. The water and the concentration of oil in water should be minimal (around 40 to 20 ppm) in order to take it to the sea. Because of the need of primary treatment, the objective of this project is to study and implement algorithms for identification of polynomial NARX (Nonlinear Auto-Regressive with Exogenous Input) models in closed loop, implement a structural identification, and compare strategies using PI control and updated on-line NARX predictive models on a combination of three-phase separator in series with three hydro cyclones batteries. The main goal of this project is to: obtain an optimized process of phase separation that will regulate the system, even in the presence of oil gushes; Show that it is possible to get optimized tunings for controllers analyzing the mesh as a whole, and evaluate and compare the strategies of PI and predictive control applied to the process. To accomplish these goals a simulator was used to represent the three phase separator and hydro cyclones. Algorithms were developed for system identification (NARX) using RLS(Recursive Least Square), along with methods for structure models detection. Predictive Control Algorithms were also implemented with NARX model updated on-line, and optimization algorithms using PSO (Particle Swarm Optimization). This project ends with a comparison of results obtained from the use of PI and predictive controllers (both with optimal state through the algorithm of cloud particles) in the simulated system. Thus, concluding that the performed optimizations make the system less sensitive to external perturbations and when optimized, the two controllers show similar results with the assessment of predictive control somewhat less sensitive to disturbances

Identification of structural damage in flexible structures using system norm and neural networks

Nowadays there is great interest in damage identification using non destructive tests. Predictive maintenance is one of the most important techniques that are based on analysis of vibrations and it consists basically of monitoring the condition of structures or machines. A complete procedure should be able to detect the damage, to foresee the probable time of occurrence and to diagnosis the type of fault in order to plan the maintenance operation in a convenient form and occasion. In practical problems, it is frequent the necessity of getting the solution of non linear equations. These processes have been studied for a long time due to its great utility. Among the methods, there are different approaches, as for instance numerical methods (classic), intelligent methods (artificial neural networks), evolutions methods (genetic algorithms), and others. The characterization of damages, for better agreement, can be classified by levels. A new one uses seven levels of classification: detect the existence of the damage; detect and locate the damage; detect, locate and quantify the damages; predict the equipment's working life; auto-diagnoses; control for auto structural repair; and system of simultaneous control and monitoring. The neural networks are computational models or systems for information processing that, in a general way, can be thought as a device black box that accepts an input and produces an output. Artificial neural nets (ANN) are based on the biological neural nets and possess habilities for identification of functions and classification of standards. In this paper a methodology for structural damages location is presented. This procedure can be divided on two phases. The first one uses norms of systems to localize the damage positions. The second one uses ANN to quantify the severity of the damage. The paper concludes with a numerical application in a beam like structure with five cases of structural damages with different levels of severities. The results show the applicability of the presented methodology. A great advantage is the possibility of to apply this approach for identification of simultaneous damages.

Identification of the essential histidine residue for high-affinity binding of AlbA protein to albicidin antibiotics

The albA gene from Klebsiella oxytoca encodes a protein that binds albicidin phytotoxins and antibiotics with high affinity. Previously, it has been shown that shifting pH from 6 to 4 reduces binding activity of AlbA by about 30%, indicating that histidine residues might be involved in substrate binding. In this study, molecular analysis of the albA coding region revealed sequence discrepancies with the albA sequence reported previously, which were probably due to sequencing errors. The albA gene was subsequently cloned from K oxytoca ATCC 13182(T) to establish the revised sequence. Biochemical and molecular approaches were used to determine the functional role of four histidine residues (His(78), HiS(125), HiS(141) and His(189)) in the corrected sequence for AlbA. Treatment of AlbA with diethyl pyrocarbonate (DEPC), a histidine-specific alkylating reagent, reduced binding activity by about 95%. DEPC treatment increased absorbance at 240-244 nm by an amount indicating conversion to N-carbethoxyhistidine of a single histidine residue per AlbA molecule. Pretreatment with albicidin protected AlbA against modification by DEPC, with a 1 : 1 molar ratio of albicidin to the protected histidine residues. Based on protein secondary structure and amino acid surface probability indices, it is predicted that HiS125 might be the residue required for albicidin binding. Mutation of HiS125 to either alanine or leucine resulted in about 32% loss of binding activity, and deletion of HiS125 totally abolished binding activity. Mutation of HiS125 to arginine and tyrosine had no effect. These results indicate that HiS125 plays a key role either in an electrostatic interaction between AlbA and albicidin or in the conformational dynamics of the albicidin-binding site.

Identification of Sclerotinia species

A variety of morphological and molecular characters were compared for their ability to separate the three plant pathogenic species that comprise the genus Sclerotinia: Sclerotinia sclerotiorum, Sclerotinia minor and Sclerotinia trifoliorum. Restriction fragment length polymorphism ( RFLP) probes generated from cloned genomic DNA fragments of S. sclerotiorum were used for accurate species designation and to compare against other markers, before further use in population genetics and breeding studies. Other characters used for comparison included host species, sclerotial diameters, ascospore morphism and breeding type. Several RFLP probes, either singly or in combination, enabled clear separation of the Sclerotinia species. Sclerotial diameters remain a good criterion for separating S. minor from S. sclerotiorum and S. trifoliorum, but the host species criterion was inadequate for accurately differentiating the 3 species of Sclerotinia.

Hierarchical Bayesian models for estimating the extent of plant pest invasions

Plant biosecurity requires statistical tools to interpret field surveillance data in order to manage pest incursions that threaten crop production and trade. Ultimately, management decisions need to be based on the probability that an area is infested or free of a pest. Current informal approaches to delimiting pest extent rely upon expert ecological interpretation of presence / absence data over space and time. Hierarchical Bayesian models provide a cohesive statistical framework that can formally integrate the available information on both pest ecology and data. The overarching method involves constructing an observation model for the surveillance data, conditional on the hidden extent of the pest and uncertain detection sensitivity. The extent of the pest is then modelled as a dynamic invasion process that includes uncertainty in ecological parameters. Modelling approaches to assimilate this information are explored through case studies on spiralling whitefly, Aleurodicus dispersus and red banded mango caterpillar, Deanolis sublimbalis. Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation is used to estimate the probable extent of pests, given the observation and process model conditioned by surveillance data. Statistical methods, based on time-to-event models, are developed to apply hierarchical Bayesian models to early detection programs and to demonstrate area freedom from pests. The value of early detection surveillance programs is demonstrated through an application to interpret surveillance data for exotic plant pests with uncertain spread rates. The model suggests that typical early detection programs provide a moderate reduction in the probability of an area being infested but a dramatic reduction in the expected area of incursions at a given time. Estimates of spiralling whitefly extent are examined at local, district and state-wide scales. The local model estimates the rate of natural spread and the influence of host architecture, host suitability and inspector efficiency. These parameter estimates can support the development of robust surveillance programs. Hierarchical Bayesian models for the human-mediated spread of spiralling whitefly are developed for the colonisation of discrete cells connected by a modified gravity model. By estimating dispersal parameters, the model can be used to predict the extent of the pest over time. An extended model predicts the climate restricted distribution of the pest in Queensland. These novel human-mediated movement models are well suited to demonstrating area freedom at coarse spatio-temporal scales. At finer scales, and in the presence of ecological complexity, exploratory models are developed to investigate the capacity for surveillance information to estimate the extent of red banded mango caterpillar. It is apparent that excessive uncertainty about observation and ecological parameters can impose limits on inference at the scales required for effective management of response programs. The thesis contributes novel statistical approaches to estimating the extent of pests and develops applications to assist decision-making across a range of plant biosecurity surveillance activities. Hierarchical Bayesian modelling is demonstrated as both a useful analytical tool for estimating pest extent and a natural investigative paradigm for developing and focussing biosecurity programs.

The benefits of tree-based models for stock selection

The identification of the primary drivers of stock returns has been of great interest to both financial practitioners and academics alike for many decades. Influenced by classical financial theories such as the CAPM (Sharp, 1964; Lintner, 1965) and APT (Ross, 1976), a linear relationship is conventionally assumed between company characteristics as derived from their financial accounts and forward returns. Whilst this assumption may be a fair approximation to the underlying structural relationship, it is often adopted for the purpose of convenience. It is actually quite rare that the assumptions of distributional normality and a linear relationship are explicitly assessed in advance even though this information would help to inform the appropriate choice of modelling technique. Non-linear models have nevertheless been applied successfully to the task of stock selection in the past (Sorensen et al, 2000). However, their take-up by the investment community has been limited despite the fact that researchers in other fields have found them to be a useful way to express knowledge and aid decision-making...

Algorithms for colour image processing based on neurological models

373 p. : il., gráf., fot., tablas

Um processo para utilizar a tecnologia de impressão 3D na construção de instrumentos didáticos para o ensino de Ciências

Pós-graduação em Educação para a Ciência - FC

Location-aided distributed primary user identification in a cognitive radio scenario

We address a cognitive radio scenario, where a number of secondary users performs identification of which primary user, if any, is trans- mitting, in a distributed way and using limited location information. We propose two fully distributed algorithms: the first is a direct iden- tification scheme, and in the other a distributed sub-optimal detection based on a simplified Neyman-Pearson energy detector precedes the identification scheme. Both algorithms are studied analytically in a realistic transmission scenario, and the advantage obtained by detec- tion pre-processing is also verified via simulation. Finally, we give details of their fully distributed implementation via consensus aver- aging algorithms.

Using the canonical modelling approach to simplify the simulation of function in functional-structural plant models

Functional-structural plant models that include detailed mechanistic representation of underlying physiological processes can be expensive to construct and the resulting models can also be extremely complicated. On the other hand, purely empirical models are not able to simulate plant adaptability and response to different conditions. In this paper, we present an intermediate approach to modelling plant function that can simulate plant response without requiring detailed knowledge of underlying physiology. Plant function is modelled using a 'canonical' modelling approach, which uses compartment models with flux functions of a standard mathematical form, while plant structure is modelled using L-systems. Two modelling examples are used to demonstrate that canonical modelling can be used in conjunction with L-systems to create functional-structural plant models where function is represented either in an accurate and descriptive way, or in a more mechanistic and explanatory way. We conclude that canonical modelling provides a useful, flexible and relatively simple approach to modelling plant function at an intermediate level of abstraction.