Information revelation and market incompleteness

\documentstyle[portada,11pt]{article}This paper shows that the presence of private information in aneconomy can be a source of market incompleteness even when it is feasibleto issue a set of securities that completely eliminates the informationalasymmetries in equilibrium. We analyze a simple security design model in which avolume maximizing futures exchange chooses not only the characteristics ofeach individual contract but also the number of contracts. Agents have rationalexpectations and differ in information, endowments and, possibly, attitudestoward risk. The emergence of complete or incomplete markets in equilibriumdepends on whether the {\it adverse selection effect} is stronger or weakerthan the {\it Hirshleifer effect}, as new securitiesare issued and prices reveal more information. When the Hirshleifer effectdominates, the exchange chooses an incomplete set of financial contracts, andthe equilibrium price is partially revealing.

Terminology matters! Why difference is not incompleteness and how early child bilinguals are heritage speakers

This paper integrates research on child simultaneous bilingual (2L1) acquisition more directly into the heritage language (HL) acquisition literature. The 2L1 literature mostly focuses on development in childhood, whereas heritage speakers (HSs) are often tested at an endstate in adulthood. However, insights from child 2L1 acquisition must be considered in HL acquisition theorizing precisely because many HSs are the adult outcomes of child 2L1 acquisition. Data from 2L1 acquisition raises serious questions for the construct of incomplete acquisition, a term broadly used in HL acquisition studies to describe almost any difference HSs display from baseline controls (usually monolinguals). We offer an epistemological discussion related to incomplete acquisition, highlighting the descriptive and theoretical inaccuracy of the term. We focus our discussion on two of several possible causal factors that contribute to variable competence outcomes in adult HSs, input (e.g., Sorace, 2004; Rothman, 2007; Pascual y Cabo & Rothman, 2012) and formal instruction (e.g., Kupisch, 2013; Kupisch et al., 2014) in the HL. We conclude by offering alternative terminology for HS outcomes.

Recovery of the star formation history of the LMC from the VISTA survey of the Magellanic system

The VISTA near infrared survey of the Magellanic System (VMC) will provide deep YJK(s) photometry reaching stars in the oldest turn-off point throughout the Magellanic Clouds (MCs). As part of the preparation for the survey, we aim to access the accuracy in the star formation history (SFH) that can be expected from VMC data, in particular for the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC). To this aim, we first simulate VMC images containing not only the LMC stellar populations but also the foreground Milky Way (MW) stars and background galaxies. The simulations cover the whole range of density of LMC field stars. We then perform aperture photometry over these simulated images, access the expected levels of photometric errors and incompleteness, and apply the classical technique of SFH-recovery based on the reconstruction of colour-magnitude diagrams (CMD) via the minimisation of a chi-squared-like statistics. We verify that the foreground MW stars are accurately recovered by the minimisation algorithms, whereas the background galaxies can be largely eliminated from the CMD analysis due to their particular colours and morphologies. We then evaluate the expected errors in the recovered star formation rate as a function of stellar age, SFR(t), starting from models with a known age-metallicity relation (AMR). It turns out that, for a given sky area, the random errors for ages older than similar to 0.4 Gyr seem to be independent of the crowding. This can be explained by a counterbalancing effect between the loss of stars from a decrease in the completeness and the gain of stars from an increase in the stellar density. For a spatial resolution of similar to 0.1 deg(2), the random errors in SFR(t) will be below 20% for this wide range of ages. On the other hand, due to the lower stellar statistics for stars younger than similar to 0.4 Gyr, the outer LMC regions will require larger areas to achieve the same level of accuracy in the SFR( t). If we consider the AMR as unknown, the SFH-recovery algorithm is able to accurately recover the input AMR, at the price of an increase of random errors in the SFR(t) by a factor of about 2.5. Experiments of SFH-recovery performed for varying distance modulus and reddening indicate that these parameters can be determined with (relative) accuracies of Delta(m-M)(0) similar to 0.02 mag and Delta E(B-V) similar to 0.01 mag, for each individual field over the LMC. The propagation of these errors in the SFR(t) implies systematic errors below 30%. This level of accuracy in the SFR(t) can reveal significant imprints in the dynamical evolution of this unique and nearby stellar system, as well as possible signatures of the past interaction between the MCs and the MW.

Validation of the University of Sao Paolo Sensory Phenomena Scale: Initial Psychometric Properties

Introduction: Although obsessions and compulsions comprise the main features of obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD), many patients report that their compulsions are preceded by a sense of ""incompleteness"" or other unpleasant feelings such as premonitory urges or a need perform action`s until feeling ""just right."" These manifestations have been characterized as Sensory Phenomena (SP). The current study presents initial psychometric data for a new scale designed to measure SP. Methods: Seventy-six adult OCD subjects were probed twice. Patients were assessed with an open clinical interview (considered as the ""gold standard"") and with the following standardized instruments: Structured Clinical Interview for Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition Axis I Disorders, Yale-Brown Obsessive-Compulsive Scale, Dimensional Yale-Brown Obsessive-Compulsive Scale, Yale Global Tic Severity Scale, Beck Anxiety Inventory, and Beck Depression Inventory. Results: SP were present in 51 OCD patients (67.1%). Tics were present in 16 (21.1%) of the overall sample. The presence of SP was significantly higher in early-onset OCD patients. There were no significant differences in the presence of SP according to comorbidity with tics or gender. The comparison between the results from the open clinical interviews and the University of Sao Paulo Sensory Phenomena Scale (USP-SPS) showed an excellent concordance between them, with no significant differences between interviewers. The inter-rater reliability between the expert raters for the USP-SPS was high, with K=.92. The Pearson correlation coefficient between the SP severity scores given by the two raters was .89. Conclusion: Preliminary results suggest that the USP-SPS is a valid and reliable instrument for assessing the presence and severity of SP in OCD subjects. CNS Spectr. 2009;14(6):315-323

Sensory phenomena in obsessive-compulsive disorder and tic disorders: A review of the literature

Introduction: A variety of subjective experiences have been reported to be associated with the symptom expression of obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) and Tourette syndrome (TS). First described in TS patients, these subjective experiences have been defined in different ways. There is no consensus in the literature on how to best define subjective experiences. This lack of consensus may hinder the understanding of study results and prevents the possibility of including them in the search for etiological factors associated with OCD and TS. Methods: The objective of this article was to review the descriptions of subjective experiences in the English-language literature from 1980-2007. This meta-analytic review was carried out using the English-language literature from 1980-2007 available on MEDLINE, PsycINFO, and the Cochrane Library databases using the following search terms: premonitory urges, sensory tics, ""just-right"" perceptions, sensory phenomena, sensory experiences, incompleteness, ""not just-right"" phenomena, obsessive-compulsive disorder and TS, including OCD and/or TS, in all combination searches. We also searched for the references cited in each article previously found that referred to the aforementioned terms. Thirty-one articles were included in the study. Results: Subjective experiences, in particular, the sensory phenomena, were important phenotypic variables in the characterization of the tic-related OCD subtype and were more frequent in the early-onset OCD subtype. There is a paucity of studies using structured interviews to assess sensory phenomena, their epidemiology and the etiological mechanisms associated with sensory phenomena. Conclusion: The current review provides some evidence that sensory phenomena can be useful to identify more homogenous subgroups of OCD and TS patients and should be included as important phenotypic variables in future clinical, genetic, neuroimaging, and treatment-response studies.

Perfectionism and sensory phenomena: phenotypic components of obsessive-compulsive disorder

Background: The aim of the study was to investigate how perfectionism and sensory phenomena (SP) interact as possible phenotypic components of obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD). Methods: Forty-seven adult outpatients, meeting Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition, criteria for OCD, and a control group of 41 community subjects were assessed using the Frost Multidimensional Perfectionism Scale (FM PS), the University of Sao Paulo-Sensory Phenomena Scale, and other standard measures of OCD severity. Results: Three of the FMPS subscales (""concern over mistakes,"" ""doubts about action,"" and ""parental criticism"") were significantly different between OCD patients and control subjects. All subtypes of SP were significantly more frequent and more severe in OCD than in control subjects. The ""incompleteness"" subtype of SP was associated with high scores on all dimensions of the FMPS, whereas the ""just-right"" subtype of SP was only associated with ""doubts about action,"" ""personal standards,"" and ""organization"" subscales of the FMPS. Conclusions: Presence and severity of SP and specific elements of perfectionism clearly distinguish OCD patients from healthy control subjects. Some SP subtypes are associated with specific FPMS subscale scores, whereas others are not. These results emphasize the relevance of assessing different subtypes of perfectionism and SP in OCD patients as important subcomponents of the OCD phenotype. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Triste e incompleta : uma visão feminina da mulher infértil

Este artigo relata resultados de uma pesquisa que teve como objetivo investigar as representações sociais da infertilidade feminina, entre mulheres de diferentes estratos sociais. Foram entrevistadas 180 mulheres, com idade variando entre 18 e 40 anos, sendo 90 moradoras de bairros populares, e 90 moradoras de dois bairros considerados de classe-média. Cada grupo foi dividido em 3 subgrupos: a) 30 mulheres casadas, com pelo menos um filho biológico; b) 30 mulheres casadas há pelo menos 1 ano, sem filhos; c) 30 mulheres solteiras, sem filhos. Para a coleta de dados utilizou-se a técnica de associação livre, tendo como expressão geradora "mulher que não pode ter filhos", além de perguntas específicas sobre a temática de interesse. Os dados mostraram como principais elementos do campo representacional tristeza, incompleta, frustração, cobrança dos outros, solidão, pessoa inferior, adoção, busca de soluções e não é problema, confirmando a permanência da concepção da infertilidade como uma condição estigmatizante para a mulher.

Tendências temporais de mortalidade por câncer de próstata no estado do Espírito Santo

Introdução: O câncer de próstata é o segundo tipo de câncer mais incidente em homens em todas as regiões do Brasil. Aproximadamente 62% dos casos diagnosticados no mundo ocorrem em homens com 65 anos ou mais, caracterizando o único fator de risco estabelecido. Objetivos: Estudar a tendência da completude do Sistema de Informação de Mortalidade (SIM), segundo as variáveis idade, raça/cor, escolaridade e estado civil no período de 2000 a 2010, no Espírito Santo, Região Sudeste e Brasil. Analisar a tendência de mortalidade por câncer de próstata na série histórica no estado do Espírito Santo (ES), no período de 1980 a 2010. Metodologia: Realizou-se um estudo descritivo baseado em dados secundários de todos os óbitos por câncer de próstata obtidos do SIM e dados do Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE) disponíveis no DATASUS departamento de informática do SUS (Sistema Único de Saúde), no ES, Região Sudeste e Brasil, no período de 1980 a 2010. Considerou-se as variáveis (idade, raça/cor, escolaridade e estado civil). Analisou-se o número absoluto e calculou-se o percentual de não preenchimento das informações das declarações de óbitos (DOs), que são a base de informação do SIM, nas localidades selecionadas (ES, Região Sudeste e Brasil). Analisou-se através do Pacote Estatístico para Ciências Sociais (SPSS), versão 18.0. Realizou-se uma análise inferencial com ajustes de curvas para os percentuais de dados faltantes das variáveis demográficas disponíveis no sistema do DATASUS (estado civil, escolaridade, raça/cor). E para a análise de tendência, foi realizado o cálculo do coeficiente de mortalidade por óbitos. As equações do melhor modelo e as estatísticas de ajuste (valor de R2 e o p-valor do teste F de adequação do modelo) foram obtidas do programa SPSS, versão 18.0. Resultados: No período de 2000 a 2010 a variável raça/cor, escolaridade, mostrou-se decrescente para o Brasil. A variável estado civil destacou-se por caracterizar uma tendência crescente no ES, Região Sudeste e Brasil. No período de 1980 a 2010 observou-se 3.561 óbitos no ES. Observa-se na série história que há tendência crescente de mortalidade por câncer de próstata. Conclusão: O trabalho é de grande importância para o estudo de câncer de próstata no Brasil. Identificou-se a crescente não completude dos campos de Estado Civil, enquanto a variável raça/cor foi considerada decrescente, porém com qualidade dos dados ruim. É preciso ações para que o processo de coleta dos dados seja aprimorado pela capacitação dos registradores. Nos resultados observou-se a tendência de crescimento da mortalidade, sendo necessárias ações, estratégias e políticas governamentais voltadas para a integralidade à saúde masculina.

A taxonomy for virtual enterprises

The purpose of this paper is to present a taxonomy able to contribute to building a framework within the domain of Virtual Enterprises (VE), to facilitate the sharing of knowledge and contributions to knowledge, as well as for trust building among VE stakeholders. A VE taxonomy currently does not exist, and this lack is felt in the ambiguous way that some concepts are addressed, leading to a fragment understanding that hinders the development of the science of VE integration and management. The structure of the taxonomy developed is based on the view of the system as a 5-tuple consisting of Input, Control, Output, Mechanism, and Process, which is the underlying system-view in the well-know IDEF0 diagramming technique. In particular, this taxonomy addresses the VE extended lifecycle that implies the use of a meta-organization called Market of Resources, as an original contribution to the VE theory and practice. The taxonomy presented does not repeat what the literature already includes, or the commonplaces, and it is constructed in a way to be easily complemented with other VE partial taxonomies that may be found in literature. Some suggestions for extensions to other interrelated domains (as evolution leaves taxonomies in an open or incompleteness state) are given in the text.

An architecture for ambient intelligent environments

This paper presents the proposal of an architecture for developing systems that interact with Ambient Intelligence (AmI) environments. This architecture has been proposed as a consequence of a methodology for the inclusion of Artificial Intelligence in AmI environments (ISyRAmI - Intelligent Systems Research for Ambient Intelligence). The ISyRAmI architecture considers several modules. The first is related with the acquisition of data, information and even knowledge. This data/information knowledge deals with our AmI environment and can be acquired in different ways (from raw sensors, from the web, from experts). The second module is related with the storage, conversion, and handling of the data/information knowledge. It is understood that incorrectness, incompleteness, and uncertainty are present in the data/information/knowledge. The third module is related with the intelligent operation on the data/information/knowledge of our AmI environment. Here we include knowledge discovery systems, expert systems, planning, multi-agent systems, simulation, optimization, etc. The last module is related with the actuation in the AmI environment, by means of automation, robots, intelligent agents and users.

Improving Assumption based Distributed Belief Revision

Belief revision is a critical issue in real world DAI applications. A Multi-Agent System not only has to cope with the intrinsic incompleteness and the constant change of the available knowledge (as in the case of its stand alone counterparts), but also has to deal with possible conflicts between the agents’ perspectives. Each semi-autonomous agent, designed as a combination of a problem solver – assumption based truth maintenance system (ATMS), was enriched with improved capabilities: a distributed context management facility allowing the user to dynamically focus on the more pertinent contexts, and a distributed belief revision algorithm with two levels of consistency. This work contributions include: (i) a concise representation of the shared external facts; (ii) a simple and innovative methodology to achieve distributed context management; and (iii) a reduced inter-agent data exchange format. The different levels of consistency adopted were based on the relevance of the data under consideration: higher relevance data (detected inconsistencies) was granted global consistency while less relevant data (system facts) was assigned local consistency. These abilities are fully supported by the ATMS standard functionalities.

Estimation of rotational frequency response functions

As it is widely known, in structural dynamic applications, ranging from structural coupling to model updating, the incompatibility between measured and simulated data is inevitable, due to the problem of coordinate incompleteness. Usually, the experimental data from conventional vibration testing is collected at a few translational degrees of freedom (DOF) due to applied forces, using hammer or shaker exciters, over a limited frequency range. Hence, one can only measure a portion of the receptance matrix, few columns, related to the forced DOFs, and rows, related to the measured DOFs. In contrast, by finite element modeling, one can obtain a full data set, both in terms of DOFs and identified modes. Over the years, several model reduction techniques have been proposed, as well as data expansion ones. However, the latter are significantly fewer and the demand for efficient techniques is still an issue. In this work, one proposes a technique for expanding measured frequency response functions (FRF) over the entire set of DOFs. This technique is based upon a modified Kidder's method and the principle of reciprocity, and it avoids the need for modal identification, as it uses the measured FRFs directly. In order to illustrate the performance of the proposed technique, a set of simulated experimental translational FRFs is taken as reference to estimate rotational FRFs, including those that are due to applied moments.

Debt and deficit fluctuations and the structure of bond markets

We analyse the implications of optimal taxation for the stochastic behaviour of debt. We show that when a government pursues an optimal fiscal policy under complete markets, the value of debt has the same or less persistence than other variables in the economy and it declines in response to shocks that cause the deficit to increase. By contrast, under incomplete markets debt shows more persistence than other variables and it increases in response to shocks that cause a higher deficit. Data for US government debt reveals diametrically opposite results from those of complete markets and is much more supportive of bond market incompleteness.

Productivity, Preferences and UIP deviations in an Open Economy Business Cycle Model

We show that a flex-price two-sector open economy DSGE model can explain the poor degree of international risk sharing and exchange rate disconnect. We use a suite of model evaluation measures and examine the role of (i) traded and non-traded sectors; (ii) financial market incompleteness; (iii) preference shocks; (iv) deviations from UIP condition for the exchange rates; and (v) creditor status in net foreign assets. We find that there is a good case for both traded and non-traded productivity shocks as well as UIP deviations in explaining the puzzles.