Contribution of microbial and invertebrate communities to leaf litter colonization in a Mediterranean stream

Leaf litter inputs and retention play an important role in ecosystem functioning in forested streams. We examined colonization of leaves by microbes (bacteria, fungi, and protozoa) and fauna in Fuirosos, an intermittent forested Mediterranean stream. Black poplar (Populus nigra) and plane (Platanus acerifolia) leaf packs were placed in the stream for 4 mo. We measured the biomasses and calculated the densities of bacteria, fungi, protozoa, meiofauna, and macroinvertebrates to determine their dynamics and potential interactions throughout the colonization process. Colonization was strongly correlated with hydrological variability (defined mainly by water temperature and discharge). The 1st week of colonization was characterized by hydrological stability and warm water temperatures, and allocation of C from microbial to invertebrate compartments on the leaf packs was rapid. Clumps of fine particulate organic matter (FPOM) were retained by the leaf packs, and enhanced rapid colonization by microfauna and meiofaunal collector-gatherers (ostracods and copepods). After 2 wk, an autumnal flood caused a 20-fold increase in water flow. Higher discharge and lower water temperature caused FPOM-related fauna to drift away from the packs and modified the subsequent colonization sequence. Fungi showed the highest biomass, with similar values to those recorded at the beginning of the experiment. After 70 d of postflood colonization, fungi decreased to nearly 40% of the total C in the leaf packs, whereas invertebrates became more abundant and accounted for 60% of the C. Natural flood occurrence in Mediterranean streams could be a key factor in the colonization and processing of organic matter.

Statistical downscaling of river flows

An extensive statistical ‘downscaling’ study is done to relate large-scale climate information from a general circulation model (GCM) to local-scale river flows in SW France for 51 gauging stations ranging from nival (snow-dominated) to pluvial (rainfall-dominated) river-systems. This study helps to select the appropriate statistical method at a given spatial and temporal scale to downscale hydrology for future climate change impact assessment of hydrological resources. The four proposed statistical downscaling models use large-scale predictors (derived from climate model outputs or reanalysis data) that characterize precipitation and evaporation processes in the hydrological cycle to estimate summary flow statistics. The four statistical models used are generalized linear (GLM) and additive (GAM) models, aggregated boosted trees (ABT) and multi-layer perceptron neural networks (ANN). These four models were each applied at two different spatial scales, namely at that of a single flow-gauging station (local downscaling) and that of a group of flow-gauging stations having the same hydrological behaviour (regional downscaling). For each statistical model and each spatial resolution, three temporal resolutions were considered, namely the daily mean flows, the summary statistics of fortnightly flows and a daily ‘integrated approach’. The results show that flow sensitivity to atmospheric factors is significantly different between nival and pluvial hydrological systems which are mainly influenced, respectively, by shortwave solar radiations and atmospheric temperature. The non-linear models (i.e. GAM, ABT and ANN) performed better than the linear GLM when simulating fortnightly flow percentiles. The aggregated boosted trees method showed higher and less variable R2 values to downscale the hydrological variability in both nival and pluvial regimes. Based on GCM cnrm-cm3 and scenarios A2 and A1B, future relative changes of fortnightly median flows were projected based on the regional downscaling approach. The results suggest a global decrease of flow in both pluvial and nival regimes, especially in spring, summer and autumn, whatever the considered scenario. The discussion considers the performance of each statistical method for downscaling flow at different spatial and temporal scales as well as the relationship between atmospheric processes and flow variability.

Dinâmica fluvial e regime hidrológico na bacia hidrográfica do rio Paranapanema

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Tendências hidrológicas anuais e sazonais na bacia do Rio Paraibuna, Parque Estadual da Serra do Mar (SP)

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Long-term rainfall trends in Serra da Mantiqueira Environmental Protection Area, southeast Brazil

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Modello bayesiano per la riduzione dell'incertezza nella previsione delle piene del fiume Reno

Many efforts have been devoting since last years to reduce uncertainty in hydrological modeling predictions. The principal sources of uncertainty are provided by input errors, for inaccurate rainfall prediction, and model errors, given by the approximation with which the water flow processes in the soil and river discharges are described. The aim of the present work is to develop a bayesian model in order to reduce the uncertainty in the discharge predictions for the Reno river. The ’a priori’ distribution function is given by an autoregressive model, while the likelihood function is provided by a linear equation which relates observed values of discharge in the past and hydrological TOPKAPI model predictions obtained by the rainfall predictions of the limited-area model COSMO-LAMI. The ’a posteriori’ estimations are provided throw a H∞ filter, because the statistical properties of estimation errors are not known. In this work a stationary and a dual adaptive filter are implemented and compared. Statistical analysis of estimation errors and the description of three case studies of flood events occurred during the fall seasons from 2003 to 2005 are reported. Results have also revealed that errors can be described as a markovian process only at a first approximation. For the same period, an ensemble of ’a posteriori’ estimations is obtained throw the COSMO-LEPS rainfall predictions, but the spread of this ’a posteriori’ ensemble is not enable to encompass observation variability. This fact is related to the building of the meteorological ensemble, whose spread reaches its maximum after 5 days. In the future the use of a new ensemble, COSMO–SREPS, focused on the first 3 days, could be helpful to enlarge the meteorogical and, consequently, the hydrological variability.

Glacial forcing of central Indonesian hydroclimate since 60,000 y B.P.

The Indo-Pacific warm pool houses the largest zone of deep atmospheric convection on Earth and plays a critical role in global climate variations. Despite the region’s importance, changes in Indo-Pacific hydroclimate on orbital timescales remain poorly constrained. Here we present high-resolution geochemical records of surface runoff and vegetation from sediment cores fromLake Towuti, on the island of Sulawesi in central Indonesia, that continuously span the past 60,000 y.We show that wet conditions and rainforest ecosystems on Sulawesi present during marine isotope stage 3 (MIS3) and the Holocene were interrupted by severe drying between ∼33,000 and 16,000 y B.P. when Northern Hemisphere ice sheets expanded and global temperatures cooled. Our record reveals little direct influence of precessional orbital forcing on regional climate, and the similarity between MIS3 and Holocene climates observed in Lake Towuti suggests that exposure of the Sunda Shelf has a weaker influence on regional hydroclimate and terrestrial ecosystems than suggested previously. We infer that hydrological variability in this part of Indonesia varies strongly in response to high-latitude climate forcing, likely through reorganizations of the monsoons and the position of the intertropical convergence zone. These findings suggest an important role for the tropical western Pacific in amplifying glacial–interglacial climate variability.

Sedimentology and geochemistry of Oxygen Isotope Stage 3 and Holocene sediments from Laguna Potrok Aike, Patagonia

Seismic reflection studies in the maar lake Laguna Potrok Aike (51°58? S, 70°23? W) revealed an erosional unconformity associated with a sub-aquatic lake-level terrace at a water depth of 30m. Radiocarbon-dated, multi-proxy sediment studies of a piston core from this location indicate that the sediment below this discontinuity has an age of 45kyr BP (Oxygen Isotope Stage 3), and was deposited during an interval of high lake level. In comparison to the Holocene section, geochemical indicators of this older part of the record either point towards a different sediment source or to a different transport mechanism for Oxygen Isotope Stage 3 sediments. Holocene sedimentation started again before 6790cal. yr BP, providing a sediment record of hydrological variability until the present. Geochemical and isotopic data indicate a fluctuating lake level until 5310cal. yr BP. During the late Holocene the lake level shows a receding tendency. Nevertheless, the lake level did not drop below the 30m terrace to create another unconformity. The geochemical characterization of volcanic ashes reveals evidence for previously unknown explosive activity of the Reclús and Mt. Burney volcanoes during Oxygen Isotope Stage 3.

Stable isotope and geochemical analyses of sediment core SO164-17-2 from the southern Florida Straits

Modeling and proxy studies indicate that a reduction of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) strength profoundly impacts temperatures and salinities in the (sub)tropical Atlantic, especially on subsurface levels. While previous studies focused on prominent periods of AMOC reduction during the last deglaciation, we aim to test whether similar reconfigurations of the subtropical hydrography occurred during the moderate climatic alterations punctuating the last interglacial, Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5. Here, we present temperature and salinity records from a Florida Straits core by combining d18O and Mg/Ca analyses on surface (Globigerinoides ruber, white) and deep-dwelling (Globorotalia crassaformis) foraminifera, covering MIS 5 in high resolution. The data reveal increasing salinities at intermediate depths during interglacial cooling episodes, decoupled from relatively stable surface conditions. This probably indicates the spatial expansion of saline Subtropical Gyre waters due to enhanced Ekman downwelling and might also point to a changed density structure and altered geostrophic balance in Florida Straits. Notably, these oceanographic alterations are not consistently occurring during periods of AMOC reduction. The data suggest that the expansion of gyre waters into Florida Straits was impeded by the increasing influence of Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) from MIS 5.5 to ~107 kyr BP. Afterwards, increasingly positive benthic d13C values imply a recession of AAIW, allowing the temporary expansion of Gyre waters into Florida Straits. We argue that the inferred transient subtropical salt accumulation and warm pool expansion might have played a pivotal role in reinvigorating meridional overturning and dampen the severity of interglacial cold phases.