Relación entre la abundancia y estructura de la comunidad de peces y el régimen hidrológico, en lagunas de la alta cuenca del río Salado

This thesis explored the relationship between hydrological variability and associated changes in fish communities in the upper Salado river lakes (Pampa plain, Argentina). The sampling design included five sites along the river connected lakes being explored for fish, hydrological and environmental data during different hydrological conditions. The temporal dynamic of main environmental characteristics of these lakes show that hydrology largely regulates some of the most important factors influencing fish ecology. Changes in fish communities associated with this hydrological and environmental dynamic allow to speculate a first approach towards the functioning of the system as a whole. Following oscillation between droughts and floods, study lakes have shown significant changes on abundance of major fish species, as well as on their recruitment success, which finally leaded to marked changes in fish community structure. Interestingly, trophic structure of communities did not change as much. iOdontesthes bonariensis/i was more abundant during droughts and in saltier sites but also displayed an improvement in recruitment success during these harsh abiotic conditions. Conversely, the abundance of iParapimelodus valenciennis, Cyphocharax voga/i and iCyprinus carpio/i as well as its recruitment success, were largely favoured by lower water residence times and total salinity. This dichotomy is mainly based on different life history strategies of these species against flor and environmental variability and it support the existence of different functional groups among the fish species of upper Salado river lakes. iOligosarcus jenynsii/i did not showed as evident functional response. In conclusion, hydrological and environmental variability can be considered as one of the main factors regulating the functioning and structure of fish communities in these very shallow lowland river lakes of the Pampa plain. Following these results some implications for an eventual regulation of the river regime are discussed.

Half-precessional dynamics of monsoon rainfall near the East African Equator

External climate forcings-such as long-term changes in solar insolation-generate different climate responses in tropical and high latitude regions(1). Documenting the spatial and temporal variability of past climates is therefore critical for understanding how such forcings are translated into regional climate variability. In contrast to the data-richmiddle and high latitudes, high-quality climate-proxy records from equatorial regions are relatively few(2-4), especially from regions experiencing the bimodal seasonal rainfall distribution associated with twice-annual passage of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. Here we present a continuous and well-resolved climate-proxy record of hydrological variability during the past 25,000 years from equatorial East Africa. Our results, based on complementary evidence from seismic-reflection stratigraphy and organic biomarker molecules in the sediment record of Lake Challa near Mount Kilimanjaro, reveal that monsoon rainfall in this region varied at half-precessional (similar to 11,500-year) intervals in phase with orbitally controlled insolation forcing. The southeasterly and northeasterly monsoons that advect moisture from the western Indian Ocean were strengthened in alternation when the inter-hemispheric insolation gradient was at a maximum; dry conditions prevailed when neither monsoon was intensified and modest local March or September insolation weakened the rain season that followed. On sub-millennial timescales, the temporal pattern of hydrological change on the East African Equator bears clear high-northern-latitude signatures, but on the orbital timescale it mainly responded to low-latitude insolation forcing. Predominance of low-latitude climate processes in this monsoon region can be attributed to the low-latitude position of its continental regions of surface air flow convergence, and its relative isolation from the Atlantic Ocean, where prominent meridional overturning circulation more tightly couples low-latitude climate regimes to high-latitude boundary conditions.

Statistical downscaling of river flows

An extensive statistical ‘downscaling’ study is done to relate large-scale climate information from a general circulation model (GCM) to local-scale river flows in SW France for 51 gauging stations ranging from nival (snow-dominated) to pluvial (rainfall-dominated) river-systems. This study helps to select the appropriate statistical method at a given spatial and temporal scale to downscale hydrology for future climate change impact assessment of hydrological resources. The four proposed statistical downscaling models use large-scale predictors (derived from climate model outputs or reanalysis data) that characterize precipitation and evaporation processes in the hydrological cycle to estimate summary flow statistics. The four statistical models used are generalized linear (GLM) and additive (GAM) models, aggregated boosted trees (ABT) and multi-layer perceptron neural networks (ANN). These four models were each applied at two different spatial scales, namely at that of a single flow-gauging station (local downscaling) and that of a group of flow-gauging stations having the same hydrological behaviour (regional downscaling). For each statistical model and each spatial resolution, three temporal resolutions were considered, namely the daily mean flows, the summary statistics of fortnightly flows and a daily ‘integrated approach’. The results show that flow sensitivity to atmospheric factors is significantly different between nival and pluvial hydrological systems which are mainly influenced, respectively, by shortwave solar radiations and atmospheric temperature. The non-linear models (i.e. GAM, ABT and ANN) performed better than the linear GLM when simulating fortnightly flow percentiles. The aggregated boosted trees method showed higher and less variable R2 values to downscale the hydrological variability in both nival and pluvial regimes. Based on GCM cnrm-cm3 and scenarios A2 and A1B, future relative changes of fortnightly median flows were projected based on the regional downscaling approach. The results suggest a global decrease of flow in both pluvial and nival regimes, especially in spring, summer and autumn, whatever the considered scenario. The discussion considers the performance of each statistical method for downscaling flow at different spatial and temporal scales as well as the relationship between atmospheric processes and flow variability.

Freshwater influences on hydrology and seagrass dynamics of intermittent estuaries

Many temperate estuaries have intermittently open and closed mouths, a feature that is often related to intermittent freshwater input. These systems, often overlooked due to their small size, can have large hydrological variability over medium-term time scales.

This variability presents potential difficulties for estuarine species particularly where anthropogenic alterations to freshwater flows can cause large deviations from natural patterns of tidal influence and inundation of habitat.

Influences of natural and hydrological variability on seagrasses were examined in two central Victorian estuaries with anthropogenically-modified but naturally-intermittent freshwater flows and mouth openings. Comparisons were focused on differences between an estuary with artificially-augmented freshwater inflow and an adjacent system, in which the volume and timing of inflows were altered by a reservoir. Eight additional estuaries in the region were also used to provide a context for these two main sites.

Hydrological changes during the three-year field component were affected by the ending of a drought and then a major flood a year later as well as by ongoing anthropogenic flow reduction and augmentation. These influences on hydrology were associated with an initially high seagrass coverage that was substantially reduced and showed signs of recovery only in the system that was affected by lower inflows. Such influences and responses also changed seasonally but to a much lesser extent than the responses to stochastic climatic events.

Natural flows were intermittent and varied substantially between years. Flooding flows represented up to 89% of the long-term annual average flow. Water quality was broadly typical of the region, with the exception of low pH in some tributaries, especially those of Anglesea estuary. Anthropogenic changes to flow were most evident at times of low natural flows and resulted in longer and more frequent periods of zero inflow to Painkalac estuary and a continual base flow to Anglesea. This base flow, from ponds containing coal ash, neutralised waters flowing from upstream and increased conductivity, except at times of high natural flow.

A three-state conceptual model of the magnitude and variability of water levels, based largely on the degree of tidal influence was identified and quantitatively assessed for the two estuaries that were the main focus of the study. These states in turn had a large influence on the area and inundation of benthic habitat. Floods tended to open the mouths of estuaries, which then remained tidal given sufficient flow to overcome sedimentary processes at the mouths. Low and zero inflow was a precondition for closure of the mouths of the estuaries. When closed, differences in inflow resulted in different endpoints in salinity patterns. From an initial pattern similar to a classic ‘salt wedge’, Painkalac estuary, with reduced inflow, quickly destratified and gradually became more saline, at times hypersaline. Anglesea estuary, with augmented flow, tended to remain stratified for longer until becoming completely fresh, given a long enough period of closure.

Episodic changes in the water quality of the estuaries were associated with different components of the freshwater flow regimes. At high flows, fresh waters of low pH with a high metal load entered Anglesea estuary. Except during the largest flood, when the estuary was completely flushed, this water was neutralised at the halocline and resulting in precipitation of metals. High flows into Painkalac were associated with elevated concentrations of clay-sourced suspended solids. During a closed period, with zero flow, a release of sediment-bound nutrients triggered by anoxia was observed in Painkalac, followed by an algal bloom.

The large decline in seagrass extent that was observed in both estuaries was closely related to floods and the subsequent reductions in potential habitat associated with the tidal states that followed. Analysis of historical patterns of extent against rainfall records suggested that periods of drought and extended mouth closures were related to establishment and expansion of beds. This model was similar to that described for South African estuaries and contrasted with more-seasonal patterns reported for local marine embayments.

Rates of in situ decomposition of seagrass detritus showed a mix of seasonal and disturbance-driven patterns of change, depending on estuary. Variability of these rates on a scale of 100s of metres was typically not significant, but there were a few episodes that were highly significant. A negative correlation between decomposition rate and seagrass extent was also observed. A novel technique for assessing cellulose decomposition potential in sediment, adapted from soil science, proved to be a useful tool for estuarine research. Results from this component of the study highlighted both small-scale variability that was inconsistent through time, and also stable differences in decomposition potential between depths and estuaries that were consistent with differences in hydrological state and salinity.

Given the relative lack of knowledge about processes in intermittent estuaries, particularly those relating to changes in freshwater inflow, results from this study will be of value both locally and for similar systems elsewhere. Locally, it is likely that flow regimes to both Anglesea and Painkalac estuaries will be reduced, following closure of the mine power station at Anglesea and due to increased demand from the reservoir above Painkalac. There is potential to manage flows from each of these sources to minimise downstream effects. Regionally, and globally, there are many intermittent estuaries in areas with Mediterranean-type climates. It has been predicted that the climates of these regions will become drier but with an increase in intensity of storm events, both of which have ramifications for flow regimes to estuaries. It is hoped that results of this study will contribute to more informed management of intermittent estuaries in the context of these likely changes.

Dinâmica fluvial e regime hidrológico na bacia hidrográfica do rio Paranapanema

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Tendências hidrológicas anuais e sazonais na bacia do Rio Paraibuna, Parque Estadual da Serra do Mar (SP)

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Long-term rainfall trends in Serra da Mantiqueira Environmental Protection Area, southeast Brazil

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Modello bayesiano per la riduzione dell'incertezza nella previsione delle piene del fiume Reno

Many efforts have been devoting since last years to reduce uncertainty in hydrological modeling predictions. The principal sources of uncertainty are provided by input errors, for inaccurate rainfall prediction, and model errors, given by the approximation with which the water flow processes in the soil and river discharges are described. The aim of the present work is to develop a bayesian model in order to reduce the uncertainty in the discharge predictions for the Reno river. The ’a priori’ distribution function is given by an autoregressive model, while the likelihood function is provided by a linear equation which relates observed values of discharge in the past and hydrological TOPKAPI model predictions obtained by the rainfall predictions of the limited-area model COSMO-LAMI. The ’a posteriori’ estimations are provided throw a H∞ filter, because the statistical properties of estimation errors are not known. In this work a stationary and a dual adaptive filter are implemented and compared. Statistical analysis of estimation errors and the description of three case studies of flood events occurred during the fall seasons from 2003 to 2005 are reported. Results have also revealed that errors can be described as a markovian process only at a first approximation. For the same period, an ensemble of ’a posteriori’ estimations is obtained throw the COSMO-LEPS rainfall predictions, but the spread of this ’a posteriori’ ensemble is not enable to encompass observation variability. This fact is related to the building of the meteorological ensemble, whose spread reaches its maximum after 5 days. In the future the use of a new ensemble, COSMO–SREPS, focused on the first 3 days, could be helpful to enlarge the meteorogical and, consequently, the hydrological variability.

Glacial forcing of central Indonesian hydroclimate since 60,000 y B.P.

The Indo-Pacific warm pool houses the largest zone of deep atmospheric convection on Earth and plays a critical role in global climate variations. Despite the region’s importance, changes in Indo-Pacific hydroclimate on orbital timescales remain poorly constrained. Here we present high-resolution geochemical records of surface runoff and vegetation from sediment cores fromLake Towuti, on the island of Sulawesi in central Indonesia, that continuously span the past 60,000 y.We show that wet conditions and rainforest ecosystems on Sulawesi present during marine isotope stage 3 (MIS3) and the Holocene were interrupted by severe drying between ∼33,000 and 16,000 y B.P. when Northern Hemisphere ice sheets expanded and global temperatures cooled. Our record reveals little direct influence of precessional orbital forcing on regional climate, and the similarity between MIS3 and Holocene climates observed in Lake Towuti suggests that exposure of the Sunda Shelf has a weaker influence on regional hydroclimate and terrestrial ecosystems than suggested previously. We infer that hydrological variability in this part of Indonesia varies strongly in response to high-latitude climate forcing, likely through reorganizations of the monsoons and the position of the intertropical convergence zone. These findings suggest an important role for the tropical western Pacific in amplifying glacial–interglacial climate variability.

Sedimentology and geochemistry of Oxygen Isotope Stage 3 and Holocene sediments from Laguna Potrok Aike, Patagonia

Seismic reflection studies in the maar lake Laguna Potrok Aike (51°58? S, 70°23? W) revealed an erosional unconformity associated with a sub-aquatic lake-level terrace at a water depth of 30m. Radiocarbon-dated, multi-proxy sediment studies of a piston core from this location indicate that the sediment below this discontinuity has an age of 45kyr BP (Oxygen Isotope Stage 3), and was deposited during an interval of high lake level. In comparison to the Holocene section, geochemical indicators of this older part of the record either point towards a different sediment source or to a different transport mechanism for Oxygen Isotope Stage 3 sediments. Holocene sedimentation started again before 6790cal. yr BP, providing a sediment record of hydrological variability until the present. Geochemical and isotopic data indicate a fluctuating lake level until 5310cal. yr BP. During the late Holocene the lake level shows a receding tendency. Nevertheless, the lake level did not drop below the 30m terrace to create another unconformity. The geochemical characterization of volcanic ashes reveals evidence for previously unknown explosive activity of the Reclús and Mt. Burney volcanoes during Oxygen Isotope Stage 3.

Stable isotope and geochemical analyses of sediment core SO164-17-2 from the southern Florida Straits

Modeling and proxy studies indicate that a reduction of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) strength profoundly impacts temperatures and salinities in the (sub)tropical Atlantic, especially on subsurface levels. While previous studies focused on prominent periods of AMOC reduction during the last deglaciation, we aim to test whether similar reconfigurations of the subtropical hydrography occurred during the moderate climatic alterations punctuating the last interglacial, Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5. Here, we present temperature and salinity records from a Florida Straits core by combining d18O and Mg/Ca analyses on surface (Globigerinoides ruber, white) and deep-dwelling (Globorotalia crassaformis) foraminifera, covering MIS 5 in high resolution. The data reveal increasing salinities at intermediate depths during interglacial cooling episodes, decoupled from relatively stable surface conditions. This probably indicates the spatial expansion of saline Subtropical Gyre waters due to enhanced Ekman downwelling and might also point to a changed density structure and altered geostrophic balance in Florida Straits. Notably, these oceanographic alterations are not consistently occurring during periods of AMOC reduction. The data suggest that the expansion of gyre waters into Florida Straits was impeded by the increasing influence of Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) from MIS 5.5 to ~107 kyr BP. Afterwards, increasingly positive benthic d13C values imply a recession of AAIW, allowing the temporary expansion of Gyre waters into Florida Straits. We argue that the inferred transient subtropical salt accumulation and warm pool expansion might have played a pivotal role in reinvigorating meridional overturning and dampen the severity of interglacial cold phases.