Dynamics of intraseasonal sea level and thermocline variability in the equatorial Atlantic during 2002-03

Satellite and in situ observations in the equatorial Atlantic Ocean during 2002-03 show dominant spectral peaks at 40-60 days and secondary peaks at 10-40 days in sea level and thermocline within the intraseasonal period band (10-80 days). A detailed investigation of the dynamics of the intraseasonal variations is carried out using an ocean general circulation model, namely, the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM). Two parallel experiments are performed in the tropical Atlantic Ocean basin for the period 2000-03: one is forced by daily scatterometer winds from the Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT) satellite together with other forcing fields, and the other is forced by the low-passed 80-day version of the above fields. To help in understanding the role played by the wind-driven equatorial waves, a linear continuously stratified ocean model is also used. Within 3 degrees S-3 degrees N of the equatorial region, the strong 40-60-day sea surface height anomaly (SSHA) and thermocline variability result mainly from the first and second baroclinic modes equatorial Kelvin waves that are forced by intraseasonal zonal winds, with the second baroclinic mode playing a more important role. Sharp 40-50-day peaks of zonal and meridional winds appear in both the QuikSCAT and Pilot Research Moored Array in the Tropical Atlantic (PIRATA) data for the period 2002-03, and they are especially strong in 2002. Zonal wind anomaly in the central-western equatorial basin for the period 2000-06 is significantly correlated with SSHA across the equatorial basin, with simultaneous/ lag correlation ranging from-0.62 to 0.74 above 95% significance. Away from the equator (3 degrees-5 degrees N), however, sea level and thermocline variations in the 40-60-day band are caused largely by tropical instability waves (TIWs). On 10-40-day time scales and west of 10 degrees W, the spectral power of sea level and thermocline appears to be dominated by TIWs within 5 degrees S-5 degrees N of the equatorial region. The wind-driven circulation, however, also provides a significant contribution. Interestingly, east of 10 W, SSHA and thermocline variations at 10 40- day periods result almost entirely from wind-driven equatorial waves. During the boreal spring of 2002 when TIWs are weak, Kelvin waves dominate the SSHA across the equatorial basin (2 degrees S-2 degrees N). The observed quasi-biweekly Yanai waves are excited mainly by the quasi-biweekly meridional winds, and they contribute significantly to the SSHA and thermocline variations in 1 degrees-5 degrees N and 1 degrees-5 degrees S regions.

Water transports through the four main straits around the South China Sea

A quasi-global high-resolution HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) is used to investigate seasonal variations of water transports through the four main straits in the South China Sea. The results show that the annual transports through the four straits Luzon Strait, Taiwan Strait, Sunda Shelf and Mindoro Strait are -4.5, 2.3, 0.5 and 1.7 Sv (1 Sv=10(6) m(3)s(-1)), respectively. The Mindoro Strait has an important outflow that accounts for over one third of the total inflow through the Luzon Strait. Furthermore, it indicates that there are strong seasonal variations of water transport in the four straits. The water transport through the Luzon Strait (Taiwan Strait, Sunda Shelf, Mindoro Strait) has a maximum value of -7.6 Sv in December (3.1 Sv in July, 2.1S v in January, 4.5Sv in November), a minimum value of -2.1 Sv in June (1.5 Sv in October, -1.0 Sv in June, -0.2 Sv in May), respectively.

热带西太平洋环流动力结构分析与模拟

热带西太平洋环流是副热带环流与热带环流关键分量，毗邻西太平洋暖池，对暖池的形成与变化有重要的作用。然而，目前为止，热带西太平洋环流还有许多问题，包括动力结构还不清楚。因此，论文针对热带西太平洋环流的研究不仅在太平洋环流动力学上有理论意义，而且对气候变化的研究和预测也具有理论和实用价值。 太平洋北赤道流分叉是大洋，特别是太平洋西部边界流海域的一个非常突出的环流现象，它是大洋中副热带大流环和热带流环的发源地，很大程度上决定着海盆尺度的大洋环流结构，在大洋环流动力学上具有非常重要的意义和地位；同时它决定着大洋西边界区质量、热量的经向输送，进而对气候变化产生重要影响，是气候系统中不可忽视的重要分量。因此，北赤道流分叉的研究，不仅具有在海洋动力学上科学意义，而且对气候变化和预测也有实践意义。 从30年代至今，关于北赤道流分叉的研究有两种，一是根据实际观测水文数据，二是由数值模拟结果得出结论。用观测数据做出的结果，相对比较接近实际，但资料的分辨率较差，会引起估算结果的偏差；数值模拟结果有较高的时空分辨率，但由于模式本身的某些缺点会导致结果偏离实际。目前为止，诸多有关北赤道流分叉的结果，如分叉纬度变化的结论很不一致。所以，如何找到一种高时空分辨率的数据或提出一个比较符合物理实际并得到实测数据验证的数值模式是研究北赤道流分叉的关键。 本文用1992年10月到2004年12月高时空分辨率的卫星高度计数据，通过计算迹线的方法，确定了北赤道流分叉的纬度。结果表明，年平均分叉纬度约在13.4°N. 关于北赤道流分叉的季节变化，6月份发生在最南端（12.9°N），12月份发生在最北端（14.1°N）。12年的平均结果显示，7月份的分叉纬度比6月份和8月份明显偏大，这是局地风应力旋度导致的结果。本文同时研究了北赤道流分叉的年际变化，结果表明在厄尔尼诺年，北赤道流分叉纬度北移，在拉尼娜年，分叉纬度南移。 在热带西太平洋地区，特别是西边界流区和印度尼西亚贯通流邻近海域，岛屿众多，地形非常复杂，历史水文数据和测流数据又极少，所以几乎无法用分析观测数据的方法求得这一海域海洋环流，特别是次表层环流结构的深刻了解。因此，本文利用一个既适用于开阔大洋又适宜于地形变化剧烈海域的混合坐标海洋模式HYCOM，模拟了热带西太平洋环流，特别是西边界流及其相关海流，如，新几内亚沿岸潜流、棉兰老潜流、赤道潜流和印度尼西亚贯通流的气候态及其月、季变化。模式结果再现了该海域主要流系及其季节变化，模拟得到的海面高度场与卫星高度计数据基本一致；模拟所得的诸多关键断面上的海流、温度和盐度结构与实地观测数据（Johnson et al., 2002）有良好的一致性，说明本文的HYCOM模拟结果是比较可信、可靠的，可以用来做西太平洋环流分析用。本文得到结果如下： （1）赤道潜流究竟起源于何处，是赤道环流动力学上一个重要问题。鉴于实测数据缺乏和赤道潜流起源邻近海域地形复杂，相关研究很少，仅有的几项研究结果认为赤道潜流起源于135－137°E。本文一系列经向跨赤道断面的纬向流速模拟结果表明，赤道潜流最西源于129－130°E之间；另外，事实上，从200米层水平环流的模拟结果来看，赤道潜流有4个源头，各季有所不同：(i) 新几内亚沿岸潜流在135°E附近汇入赤道潜流；与Tsuchiya et al.（1989）结论相同；(ii) 来自棉兰老海流，这与Lu and McCreary（1995），Gu and Philander（1997）结论相同；(iii) 南海水经民都洛海峡、苏禄海和苏拉威西海西部由哈马黑拉岛以北进入赤道潜流，特别是，在春、夏、秋季；(iv) 印度洋海水经班达海和马鲁古海沿苏拉威西东岸北上沿哈马黑拉岛以东汇入赤道潜流（特别是春季）。所以，赤道潜流就水源来说，它有来自南海、印度洋和棉兰老以东的海水，就其起源来说，还是应该算从129－130°E开始的。 （2）棉兰老潜流发现于80年代末，尽管棉兰老潜流的起源对这一海域环流动力学非常重要，但由于资料缺乏，其起源的研究甚少。本文的模拟结果表明棉兰老潜流似乎有一部分水来自棉兰老海流，这主要在300－500米层。但更重要的是，从马鲁古海西边界（苏拉威西岛以东）向北的一支流更是棉兰老潜流的重要水源，说明棉兰老潜流的水源有相当部分是来自南半球，在600，700米层，特别是800，900和1000米层，棉兰老海流流速急剧减小至几乎看不到，而棉兰老潜流非常突出，其水源主要来自南半球苏拉威西岛东部向北的流动。至于棉兰老潜流的去处，500，600米层的模拟结果显示，棉兰老潜流在12－13°N附近，一大部分向东流去，一小部分向南加入棉兰老海流。在700米层以下，棉兰老潜流则在12°N向东流去，这与Hu and Cui（1989, 1991）和Wang and Hu（1998）的结果一致。 （3）关于印度尼西亚贯通流。HYCOM模拟的印度尼西亚贯通流年平均状况指出：250米以浅，印度尼西亚贯通流由西太平洋主要经由望加锡海峡进入东印度洋；300米以深，印度尼西亚贯通流反向，由东印度洋经由弗罗勒斯海、班达海和马鲁古海的西部边界进入太平洋。由200米层环流可以看出，从民都洛海峡南下的南海水是进入望加锡海峡构成印度尼西亚贯通流的主要的来源，另一小部分来自棉兰老海流。 （4）关于黑潮南海分支。在本文的模拟结果中，一年四季都有明显的黑潮分支由吕宋北端向西北进入南海后，沿大约21°N附近向西南流动，宽约100－200公里，深达300－400米，最大流速一般可达20厘米/秒，最大在冬季，可达40厘米/秒，流量约为6.5Sv，冬季强，5、9月份偏弱。证明了仇德忠、杨天鸿、郭忠信（1984）和郭忠信、杨天鸿、仇德忠（1985）关于南海黑潮分支存在的论述，并在一定程度上定量的解释了其季节变化规律。

Use of recent geoid models to estimate mean dynamic topography and geostrophic currents in South Atlantic and Brazil Malvinas confluence

The use of geoid models to estimate the Mean Dynamic Topography was stimulated with the launching of the GRACE satellite system, since its models present unprecedented precision and space-time resolution. In the present study, besides the DNSC08 mean sea level model, the following geoid models were used with the objective of computing the MDTs: EGM96, EIGEN-5C and EGM2008. In the method adopted, geostrophic currents for the South Atlantic were computed based on the MDTs. In this study it was found that the degree and order of the geoid models affect the determination of TDM and currents directly. The presence of noise in the MDT requires the use of efficient filtering techniques, such as the filter based on Singular Spectrum Analysis, which presents significant advantages in relation to conventional filters. Geostrophic currents resulting from geoid models were compared with the HYCOM hydrodynamic numerical model. In conclusion, results show that MDTs and respective geostrophic currents calculated with EIGEN-5C and EGM2008 models are similar to the results of the numerical model, especially regarding the main large scale features such as boundary currents and the retroflection at the Brazil-Malvinas Confluence.

Use of recent geoid models to estimate mean dynamic topography and geostrophic currents in South Atlantic and Brazil Malvinas confluence

The use of geoid models to estimate the Mean Dynamic Topography was stimulated with the launching of the GRACE satellite system, since its models present unprecedented precision and space-time resolution. In the present study, besides the DNSC08 mean sea level model, the following geoid models were used with the objective of computing the MDTs: EGM96, EIGEN-5C and EGM2008. In the method adopted, geostrophic currents for the South Atlantic were computed based on the MDTs. In this study it was found that the degree and order of the geoid models affect the determination of TDM and currents directly. The presence of noise in the MDT requires the use of efficient filtering techniques, such as the filter based on Singular Spectrum Analysis, which presents significant advantages in relation to conventional filters. Geostrophic currents resulting from geoid models were compared with the HYCOM hydrodynamic numerical model. In conclusion, results show that MDTs and respective geostrophic currents calculated with EIGEN-5C and EGM2008 models are similar to the results of the numerical model, especially regarding the main large scale features such as boundary currents and the retroflection at the Brazil-Malvinas Confluence.

Decadal Variabilities and Trends in the Southwest Atlantic in a model forced with NCEP Reanalysis from 1960 to 2012

Analysis of the NCAR/NCEP Reanalysis show changes in the atmospheric circulation in the Southern hemisphere, with a strengthening and poleward displacement of the westerlies. Because the wind is one of the main sources of the ocean's kinetic energy, a numerical experiment with the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) was forced with monthly means of the NCAR/NCEP Reanalysis products to investigate the effects of the changes in the wind on the ocean circulation in a geographical domain defined by 98W – 114E; 65S – 60N. The results show good agreement with other models and with available satellite data. In the western sector of the South Atlantic there are several indications of changes such as a poleward displacement of the Brazil-Malvinas Confluence and positive trends in temperature and salinity of the southwestern region of the subtropical gyre

Decadal Variabilities and Trends in the Southwest Atlantic in a model forced with NCEP Reanalysis from 1960 to 2012

Analysis of the NCAR/NCEP Reanalysis show changes in the atmospheric circulation in the Southern hemisphere, with a strengthening and poleward displacement of the westerlies. Because the wind is one of the main sources of the ocean's kinetic energy, a numerical experiment with the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) was forced with monthly means of the NCAR/NCEP Reanalysis products to investigate the effects of the changes in the wind on the ocean circulation in a geographical domain defined by 98W – 114E; 65S – 60N. The results show good agreement with other models and with available satellite data. In the western sector of the South Atlantic there are several indications of changes such as a poleward displacement of the Brazil-Malvinas Confluence and positive trends in temperature and salinity of the southwestern region of the subtropical gyre.

Relation of Lagragian structures and drifter dynamics in the Gulf of Mexico

We use a Lagrangian descriptor (the so called function M) which measures the length of particle trajectories on the ocean surface over a given interval of time. With this tool we identify the Lagrangian skeleton of the flow and compare it on three datasets over the Gulf of Mexico during the year 2010. The satellite altimetry data used come from AVISO and simulations from HYCOM GOMl0.04 experiments 30.1 and 31.0. We contrast the Lagrangian structure and transport using the evolution of several surface drifters. We show that the agreement in relevant cases between Lagrangian structures and dynamics of drifters depends on the quality of the data on the studied area.

Lagrangian tools and the assessment of the predictive capacity of geophysical data sets

We examine, with recently developed Lagrangian tools, altimeter data and numerical simulations obtained from the HYCOM model in the Gulf of Mexico. Our data correspond to the months just after the Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the year 2010. Our Lagrangian analysis provides a skeleton that allows the interpretation of transport routes over the ocean surface. The transport routes are further verified by the simultaneous study of the evolution of several drifters launched during those months in the Gulf of Mexico. We find that there exist Lagrangian structures that justify the dynamics of the drifters, although the agreement depends on the quality of the data. We discuss the impact of the Lagrangian tools on the assessment of the predictive capacity of these data sets.

Rotina computacional de obtenção, tratamento e visualização de dados oceanográficos

Atualmente, sensores remotos e computadores de alto desempenho estão sendo utilizados como instrumentos principais na coleta e produção de dados oceanográficos. De posse destes dados, é possível realizar estudos que permitem simular e prever o comportamento do oceano por meio de modelos numéricos regionais. Dentre os fatores importantes no estudo da oceanografia, podem ser destacados àqueles referentes aos impactos ambientais, de contaminação antrópica, utilização de energias renováveis, operações portuárias e etc. Contudo, devido ao grande volume de dados gerados por instituições ambientais, na forma de resultados de modelos globais como o HYCOM (Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model) e dos programas de Reanalysis da NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration), torna-se necessária a criação de rotinas computacionais para realizar o tratamento de condições iniciais e de contorno, de modo que possam ser aplicadas a modelos regionais como o TELEMAC3D (www.opentelemac.org). Problemas relacionados a baixa resolução, ausência de dados e a necessidade de interpolação para diferentes malhas ou sistemas de coordenadas verticais, tornam necessária a criação de um mecanismo computacional que realize este tratamento adequadamente. Com isto, foram desenvolvidas rotinas na linguagem de programação Python, empregando interpoladores de vizinho mais próximo, de modo que, a partir de dados brutos dos modelos HYCOM e do programa de Reanalysis da NOAA, foram preparadas condições iniciais e de contorno para a realização de uma simulação numérica teste. Estes resultados foram confrontados com outro resultado numérico onde, as condições foram construídas a partir de um método de interpolação mais sofisticado, escrita em outra linguagem, e que já vem sendo utilizada no laboratório. A análise dos resultados permitiu concluir que, a rotina desenvolvida no âmbito deste trabalho, funciona adequadamente para a geração de condições iniciais e de contorno do modelo TELEMAC3D. Entretanto, um interpolador mais sofisticado deve ser desenvolvido de forma a aumentar a qualidade nas interpolações, otimizar o custo computacional, e produzir condições que sejam mais realísticas para a utilização do modelo TELEMAC3D.