Hurricane wind speeds in the United States /

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Surface wave and storm surge prediction during Hurricane Sandy

Hurricane Sandy was the largest storm on historical record in the Atlantic Ocean basin with extensive coastal damage caused by large waves and high storm surge. The primary objectives of this thesis are to compare and evaluate three different spatially-varying surface wind fields of Hurricane Sandy to investigate the impact of the differences between the complex wind fields on predictions of the sea surface evolution, and to evaluate the impact of the storm on the hydrodynamics in Great South Bay (GSB) and the discharge of ocean water into the back-barrier bay from overwash over Fire Island. Three different spatially-varying surface wind fields were evaluated and compared to wind observations, including the parametric Holland (1980) model (H80), the parametric Generalized Asymmetric Holland Model (GAHM), and results from the WeatherFlow Regional Atmospheric Modelling System (WRAMS). The winds were used to drive the coupled Delft3D-SWAN hydrodynamic and ocean wave models on a regional grid. The results indicate that the WRAMS wind field produces wave model predictions in the best agreement with significant wave height observations, followed by the GAHM and H80 wind fields and that a regional atmospheric wind model is best for hindcasting hurricane waves and water levels when detailed observations are available, while a parametric vortex model is best for forecasting hurricane sea surface conditions. Using a series of four connected Delft3D-SWAN grids to achieve finer resolution over Fire Island and GSB, a higher resolution WRAMS was used to predict waves and storm surge. The results indicate that strong local winds have the largest influence on water level fluctuations in GSB. Three numerical solutions were conducted with varying extents of barrier island overwash. The simulations allowing for minor and major overwash indicated good agreement with observations in the east end of GSB and suggest that island overwash provided a significant contribution of ocean water to GSB during the storm. Limiting the overwash in the numerical model directly impacts the total discharge into GSB from the ocean through existing inlets. The results of this study indicate that barrier island overwash had a significant impact on the water levels in eastern GSB.

The importance of wind and buoyancy forcing for the boundary density variations and the geostrophic component of the AMOC at 26°N

It is widely thought that changes in both the surface buoyancy fluxes and wind stress drive variability in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), but that they drive variability on different time scales. For example, wind forcing dominates short-term variability through its effects on Ekman currents and coastal upwelling, whereas buoyancy forcing is important for longer time scales (multiannual and decadal). However, the role of the wind forcing on multiannual to decadal time scales is less clear. Here the authors present an analysis of simulations with the Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO) ocean model with the aim of explaining the important drivers of the zonal density gradient at 26°N, which is directly related to the AMOC. In the experiments, only one of either the wind stress or the buoyancy forcing is allowed to vary in time, whereas the other remains at its seasonally varying climatology. On subannual time scales, variations in the density gradient, and in the AMOC minus Ekman, are driven largely by local wind-forced coastal upwelling at both the western and eastern boundaries. On decadal time scales, buoyancy forcing related to the North Atlantic Oscillation dominates variability in the AMOC. Interestingly, however, it is found that wind forcing also plays a role at longer time scales, primarily impacting the interannual variability through the excitation of Rossby waves in the central Atlantic, which propagate westward to interact with the western boundary, but also by modulating the decadal time-scale response to buoyancy forcing.

Radiative forcing of natural forest disturbances

Forest disturbances are major sources of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere, and therefore impact global climate. Biogeophysical attributes, such as surface albedo (reflectivity), further control the climate-regulating properties of forests. Using both tower-based and remotely sensed data sets, we show that natural disturbances from wildfire, beetle outbreaks, and hurricane wind throw can significantly alter surface albedo, and the associated radiative forcing either offsets or enhances the CO2 forcing caused by reducing ecosystem carbon sequestration over multiple years. In the examined cases, the radiative forcing from albedo change is on the same order of magnitude as the CO2 forcing. The net radiative forcing resulting from these two factors leads to a local heating effect in a hurricane-damaged mangrove forest in the subtropics, and a cooling effect following wildfire and mountain pine beetle attack in boreal forests with winter snow. Although natural forest disturbances currently represent less than half of gross forest cover loss, that area will probably increase in the future under climate change, making it imperative to represent these processes accurately in global climate models.

Separating the influence of projected changes in air temperature and wind on patterns of sea level change and ocean heat content

We present ocean model sensitivity experiments aimed at separating the influence of the projected changes in the “thermal” (near-surface air temperature) and “wind” (near-surface winds) forcing on the patterns of sea level and ocean heat content. In the North Atlantic, the distribution of sea level change is more due to the “thermal” forcing, whereas it is more due to the “wind” forcing in the North Pacific; in the Southern Ocean, the “thermal” and “wind” forcing have a comparable influence. In the ocean adjacent to Antarctica the “thermal” forcing leads to an inflow of warmer waters on the continental shelves, which is somewhat attenuated by the “wind” forcing. The structure of the vertically integrated heat uptake is set by different processes at low and high latitudes: at low latitudes it is dominated by the heat transport convergence, whereas at high latitudes it represents a small residual of changes in the surface flux and advection of heat. The structure of the horizontally integrated heat content tendency is set by the increase of downward heat flux by the mean circulation and comparable decrease of upward heat flux by the subgrid-scale processes; the upward eddy heat flux decreases and increases by almost the same magnitude in response to, respectively, the “thermal” and “wind” forcing. Regionally, the surface heat loss and deep convection weaken in the Labrador Sea, but intensify in the Greenland Sea in the region of sea ice retreat. The enhanced heat flux anomaly in the subpolar Atlantic is mainly caused by the “thermal” forcing.

Finite time blow-up and breaking of solitary wind waves

The evolution of surface water waves in finite depth under wind forcing is reduced to an antidissipative Korteweg-de Vries-Burgers equation. We exhibit its solitary wave solution. Antidissipation accelerates and increases the amplitude of the solitary wave and leads to blow-up and breaking. Blow-up occurs in finite time for infinitely large asymptotic space so it is a nonlinear, dispersive, and antidissipative equivalent of the linear instability which occurs for infinite time. Due to antidissipation two given arbitrary and adjacent planes of constant phases of the solitary wave acquire different velocities and accelerations inducing breaking. Soliton breaking occurs in finite space in a time prior to the blow-up. We show that the theoretical growth in amplitude and the time of breaking are both testable in an existing experimental facility.

Probabilistic-based hurricane risk assessment and mitigation considering the potential impacts of climate change

Studies are suggesting that hurricane hazard patterns (e.g. intensity and frequency) may change as a consequence of the changing global climate. As hurricane patterns change, it can be expected that hurricane damage risks and costs may change as a result. This indicates the necessity to develop hurricane risk assessment models that are capable of accounting for changing hurricane hazard patterns, and develop hurricane mitigation and climatic adaptation strategies. This thesis proposes a comprehensive hurricane risk assessment and mitigation strategies that account for a changing global climate and that has the ability of being adapted to various types of infrastructure including residential buildings and power distribution poles. The framework includes hurricane wind field models, hurricane surge height models and hurricane vulnerability models to estimate damage risks due to hurricane wind speed, hurricane frequency, and hurricane-induced storm surge and accounts for the timedependant properties of these parameters as a result of climate change. The research then implements median insured house values, discount rates, housing inventory, etc. to estimate hurricane damage costs to residential construction. The framework was also adapted to timber distribution poles to assess the impacts climate change may have on timber distribution pole failure. This research finds that climate change may have a significant impact on the hurricane damage risks and damage costs of residential construction and timber distribution poles. In an effort to reduce damage costs, this research develops mitigation/adaptation strategies for residential construction and timber distribution poles. The costeffectiveness of these adaptation/mitigation strategies are evaluated through the use of a Life-Cycle Cost (LCC) analysis. In addition, a scenario-based analysis of mitigation strategies for timber distribution poles is included. For both residential construction and timber distribution poles, adaptation/mitigation measures were found to reduce damage costs. Finally, the research develops the Coastal Community Social Vulnerability Index (CCSVI) to include the social vulnerability of a region to hurricane hazards within this hurricane risk assessment. This index quantifies the social vulnerability of a region, by combining various social characteristics of a region with time-dependant parameters of hurricanes (i.e. hurricane wind and hurricane-induced storm surge). Climate change was found to have an impact on the CCSVI (i.e. climate change may have an impact on the social vulnerability of hurricane-prone regions).

Satellite-Derived Variability in Chlorophyll, Wind Stress, Sea Surface Height, and Temperature in the Northern California Current System

Satellite-derived data provide the temporal means and seasonal and nonseasonal variability of four physical and biological parameters off Oregon and Washington ( 41 degrees - 48.5 degrees N). Eight years of data ( 1998 - 2005) are available for surface chlorophyll concentrations, sea surface temperature ( SST), and sea surface height, while six years of data ( 2000 - 2005) are available for surface wind stress. Strong cross-shelf and alongshore variability is apparent in the temporal mean and seasonal climatology of all four variables. Two latitudinal regions are identified and separated at 44 degrees - 46 degrees N, where the coastal ocean experiences a change in the direction of the mean alongshore wind stress, is influenced by topographic features, and has differing exposure to the Columbia River Plume. All these factors may play a part in defining the distinct regimes in the northern and southern regions. Nonseasonal signals account for similar to 60 - 75% of the dynamical variables. An empirical orthogonal function analysis shows stronger intra-annual variability for alongshore wind, coastal SST, and surface chlorophyll, with stronger interannual variability for surface height. Interannual variability can be caused by distant forcing from equatorial and basin-scale changes in circulation, or by more localized changes in regional winds, all of which can be found in the time series. Correlations are mostly as expected for upwelling systems on intra-annual timescales. Correlations of the interannual timescales are complicated by residual quasi-annual signals created by changes in the timing and strength of the seasonal cycles. Examination of the interannual time series, however, provides a convincing picture of the covariability of chlorophyll, surface temperature, and surface height, with some evidence of regional wind forcing.

Tidal and wind influences on circulation in the southern mouth of the Ría de Vigo (NW Iberian Peninsula)

Tidal and wind influences on the velocity field in the Ría de Vigo were assessed using atmospheric data from two meteorological stations located at Bouzas port and on an oceanic buoy off Silleiro Cape along with oceanic data from an ADCP moored in the Ría for a 72-day period. A two-layer circulation pattern was observed. Near-surface and near-bottom currents are primarily influenced by wind (especially remote winds), separated by an intermediate layer dominated by tidal variability. At subtidal frequencies, residual currents are well correlated with wind variability. Remote wind forcing exhibited a markedly high correlation with surface layer currents, indicating the major role played by wind in the long-term upwelling-modulated circulation of the Ría.

Tidal and wind influences on circulation in the southern mouth of the Ría de Vigo (NW Iberian Peninsula)

Tidal and wind influences on the velocity field in the Ría de Vigo were assessed using atmospheric data from two meteorological stations located at Bouzas port and on an oceanic buoy off Silleiro Cape along with oceanic data from an ADCP moored in the Ría for a 72-day period. A two-layer circulation pattern was observed. Near-surface and near-bottom currents are primarily influenced by wind (especially remote winds), separated by an intermediate layer dominated by tidal variability. At subtidal frequencies, residual currents are well correlated with wind variability. Remote wind forcing exhibited a markedly high correlation with surface layer currents, indicating the major role played by wind in the long-term upwelling-modulated circulation of the Ría.

Is there any imprint of the wind variability on the Atlantic Water circulation within the Arctic Basin?

The Atlantic Water (AW) layer in the Arctic Basin is isolated from the atmosphere by the overlaying surface layer, yet observations have revealed that the velocities in this layer exhibit significant variations. Here analysis of a global ocean/sea ice model hindcast, complemented by experiments performed with an idealized process model, is used to investigate what controls the variability of AW circulation, with a focus on the role of wind forcing. The AW circulation carries the imprint of wind variations, both remotely over the Nordic and Barents Seas where they force the AW inflow variability, and locally over the Arctic Basin through the forcing of the wind-driven Beaufort Gyre, which modulates and transfers the wind variability to the AW layer. The strong interplay between the circulation within the surface and AW layers suggests that both layers must be considered to understand variability in either.

Shelf and estuarine transport mechanisms affecting the supply of competent larvae in a suite of brachyuran crabs with different life histories

Supply of competent larvae to the benthic habitat is a major determinant of population dynamics in coastal and estuarine invertebrates with an indirect life cycle. Larval delivery may depend not only on physical transport mechanisms, but also on larval behavior and physiological progress to the competent stage. Yet, the combined analysis of such factors has seldom been attempted. We used time-series analyses to examine tide- and wind-driven mechanisms responsible for the supply of crab megalopae to an estuarine river under a major marine influence in SW Spain, and monitored the vertical distribution of upstream moving megalopae, their net flux and competent state. The species Panopeus africanus (estuarine), Brachynotus sexdentatus (euryhaline) and Nepinnotheres pinnotheres (coastal) comprised 80% of the whole sample, and responded in a similar way to tide and wind forcing. Tidal range was positively correlated to supply, with maxima 0 to 1 d after spring tides, suggesting selective tidal stream transport. Despite being extensively subjected to upwelling, downwind drift under the effect of westerlies, not Ekman transport, explained residual supply variation at our sampling area. Once in the estuary, net flux and competence state matched the expected trends. Net upstream flux increased from B. sexdentatus to P. africanus, favoring transport to a sheltered coastal habitat (N. pinnotheres), or to the upper estuary (P. africanus). Competence state was highest in N. pinnotheres, intermediate in B. sexdentatus and lowest in P. africanus, as expected if larvae respond to cues from adequate benthic habitat. P. africanus megalopae were found close to the bottom, not above, rendering slower upstream transport than anticipated.

Satellite observation and climate system model simulation of the St. Lawrence Island polynya

The St. Lawrence Island polynya (SLIP) is a commonly occurring winter phenomenon in the Bering Sea, in which dense saline water produced during new ice formation is thought to flow northward through the Bering Strait to help maintain the Arctic Ocean halocline. Winter darkness and inclement weather conditions have made continuous in situ and remote observation of this polynya difficult. However, imagery acquired from the European Space Agency ERS-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) has allowed observation of the St. Lawrence Island polynya using both the imagery and derived ice displacement products. With the development of ARCSyM, a high resolution regional model of the Arctic atmosphere/sea ice system, simulation of the SLIP in a climate model is now possible. Intercomparisons between remotely sensed products and simulations can lead to additional insight into the SLIP formation process. Low resolution SAR, SSM/I and AVHRR infrared imagery for the St. Lawrence Island region are compared with the results of a model simulation for the period of 24-27 February 1992. The imagery illustrates a polynya event (polynya opening). With the northerly winds strong and consistent over several days, the coupled model captures the SLIP event with moderate accuracy. However, the introduction of a stability dependent atmosphere-ice drag coefficient, which allows feedbacks between atmospheric stability, open water, and air-ice drag, produces a more accurate simulation of the SLIP in comparison to satellite imagery. Model experiments show that the polynya event is forced primarily by changes in atmospheric circulation followed by persistent favorable conditions: ocean surface currents are found to have a small but positive impact on the simulation which is enhanced when wind forcing is weak or variable.

The seasonal evolution of high vertical–mode internal waves in a deep reservoir

The causal mechanism and seasonal evolution of the internal wave field in a deep, warm, monomictic reservoirare examined through the analysis of field observations and numerical techniques. The study period extends fromthe onset of thermal stratification in the spring until midsummer in 2005. During this time, wind forcing wasperiodic, with a period of 24 h (typical of land–sea breezes), and the thermal structure in the lake wascharacterized by the presence of a shallow surface layer overlying a thick metalimnion, typical of small to mediumsized reservoirs with deep outtakes. Basin-scale internal seiches of high vertical mode (ranging from mode V3 toV5) were observed in the metalimnion. The structure of the dominant modes of oscillation changed asstratification evolved on seasonal timescales, but in all cases, their periods were close to that of the local windforcing (i.e., 24 h), suggesting a resonant response. Nonresonant oscillatory modes of type V1 and V2 becamedominant after large frontal events, which disrupted the diurnal periodicity of the wind forcing