A micro-level simulation for the prediction of intention and behaviour

In this contribution we aim at anchoring Agent-Based Modeling (ABM) simulations in actual models of human psychology. More specifically, we apply unidirectional ABM to social psychological models using low level agents (i.e., intra-individual) to examine whether they generate better predictions, in comparison to standard statistical approaches, concerning the intentions of performing a behavior and the behavior. Moreover, this contribution tests to what extent the predictive validity of models of attitude such as the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) or Model of Goal-directed Behavior (MGB) depends on the assumption that peoples’ decisions and actions are purely rational. Simulations were therefore run by considering different deviations from rationality of the agents with a trembling hand method. Two data sets concerning respectively the consumption of soft drinks and physical activity were used. Three key findings emerged from the simulations. First, compared to standard statistical approach the agent-based simulation generally improves the prediction of behavior from intention. Second, the improvement in prediction is inversely proportional to the complexity of the underlying theoretical model. Finally, the introduction of varying degrees of deviation from rationality in agents’ behavior can lead to an improvement in the goodness of fit of the simulations. By demonstrating the potential of ABM as a complementary perspective to evaluating social psychological models, this contribution underlines the necessity of better defining agents in terms of psychological processes before examining higher levels such as the interactions between individuals.

Social networks and positive and negative affect

We followed 100 university students in the UK for one week, instructing them to record all face-to-face, phone and digital contacts during the day as well as their positive and negative affect. We wanted to see how positive and negative affect spread around a social network while taking into account participants’ socio-demographic data, personality, general health and gratitude scores. We focused on the participants’ connections with those in their class; excluding friends and family outside this group. The data was analysed using actor-based models implemented in SIENA. Results show differences between positive and negative affect dynamics in this environment and an influence of personality traits on the average number and rate of communication.

To reduce and not to reduce resource consumption? That is two questions

Recent research shows that because they rely on separate goals, cognitions about not performing a behaviour are not simple opposites of cognitions about performing the same behaviour. Using this perspective, two studies (N = 758 & N = 104) examined the psycho-social determinants of reduction in resource consumption. Results showed that goals associated with reducing versus not reducing resource consumption were not simple opposites (Study 1). Additionally, the discriminant validity of the Theory of Planned Behaviour constructs associated with reducing versus not reducing resource consumption was demonstrated (Study 1 & 2). Moreover, results revealed the incremental validity of both Intentions (to reduce and to not reduce resource consumption) for predicting a series of behaviours (Study 1 & 2). Finally, results indicated a mediation role for the importance of ecological dimensions on the effect of both Intentions on a mock TV choice and a mediation role for the importance of non ecological dimensions on the effect of Intention of not reducing on the same TV choice. Discussion is organized around the consequences, at both theoretical and applied levels, of considering separate motivational systems for reducing and not reducing resource consumption.

Interventions in social networks: impact on mood and network dynamics

Results from two studies on longitudinal friendship networks are presented, exploring the impact of a gratitude intervention on positive and negative affect dynamics in a social network. The gratitude intervention had been previously shown to increase positive affect and decrease negative affect in an individual but dynamic group effects have not been considered. In the first study the intervention was administered to the whole network. In the second study two social networks are considered and in each only a subset of individuals, initially low/high in negative affect respectively received the intervention as `agents of change'. Data was analyzed using stochastic actor based modelling techniques to identify resulting network changes, impact on positive and negative affect and potential contagion of mood within the group. The first study found a group level increase in positive and a decrease in negative affect. Homophily was detected with regard to positive and negative affect but no evidence of contagion was found. The network itself became more volatile along with a fall in rate of change of negative affect. Centrality measures indicated that the best broadcasters were the individuals with the least negative affect levels at the beginning of the study. In the second study, the positive and negative affect levels for the whole group depended on the initial levels of negative affect of the intervention recipients. There was evidence of positive affect contagion in the group where intervention recipients had low initial level of negative affect and contagion in negative affect for the group where recipients had initially high level of negative affect.

An examination of the role of the sports and exercise medicine specialist in Ireland- from epidemiology to treatment

The expansion of the specialty of sports and exercise medicine (SEM) is a relatively recent development in the medical community and the role of the SEM specialist continues to evolve and develop. The SEM specialist is ideally placed to care for all aspects of physical activity not only in athletes but also in the general population. As an advocate for physical activity the SEM specialist plays a broad role in advising safe effective sports and recreation participation; screening for disease related to sports participation; examining and contributing to the evidence behind treatment strategies and evaluating any potential negative impact of sports injury prevention measures. In this thesis I will demonstrate the breadth of the role the Sports and Exercise Medicine Specialist from epidemiology to in-depth examination of treatment strategies. In Chapter 2, I examined the epidemiology of sports and recreation related injury (SRI) in Ireland, an area that has previously been poorly studied. We report on 3,172 SRI (14% of total presentations) presentations to the ED over 6 months. Paediatric patients (4-16 yrs) were over represented comprising 39.9% of all SRI presentation compared to 16% of total ED presentations and 18% of the general population. These injuries were serious (32% fractures) and though 49% of injuries occurred during organised competition/practice, 41.5% occurred during recreation-most often at home. In Chapter 3, I examined risk factors associated with hand injury in hurling. The previous chapter highlighted the importance of a firm evidence base underpinning treatment strategies. When measures to improve welfare are introduced not only must potential benefits be measured, so too must potential unwanted adverse outcomes. In this study I examined a cohort of adult hurlers who had presented to the ED with a hurling related injury in order to highlight the variables associated with hand injury in this population. I found the athletes who wore a helmet were far more likely (OR 3.15 95% CI (1.51-6.56) p= 0.002) to suffer a hand injury than athletes who did not. Very few of those interviewed (4.9%) used hand protection compared to 65% who used helmet and faceguard. The introduction of the helmet and faceguard in hurling has undeniably decreased the incidence of head and face injury in hurling. However in tandem with this intervention several observational studies have demonstrated an increase in the occurrence of hurling related hand injuries. This study highlights the importance of being cognisant of unanticipated or unintended consequences when implementing a new treatment or intervention. In Chapter 4, I examined the role of population screening as applied to sport and exercise. This is a controversial area –cardiac screening in the exercising population has been the subject of much debate. Specifically I define the prevalence of exercise induced bronchoconstriction (EIB) using a specifically designed sports specific field-testing protocol. In this study I found almost a third (29%) of a full international professional rugby squad had confirmed asthma or EIB, as compared with 12-15% of the general population. Despite regular medical screening, 5 ‘new’ untreated cases (12%) were elicited by the challenge test and in the group already on treatment for asthma/EIB; over 50% still displayed EIB. In Chapter 5, I examined the evidence supporting current treatment options for iliotibial band friction syndrome (ITBFS). The practice of sports medicine has traditionally been ‘eminence based’ rather than ‘evidence based’. This may be problematic as some of these practices are based upon flawed principles- for example the treatment of iliotibial band friction syndrome (ITBFS). In this chapter, using cadaveric and biomechanical studies I expand upon the growing base of evidence clarifying the anatomy and biomechanics of the area-thereby re-examining the principles on which current treatments are based. The role of the SEM specialist is broad; we chose to examine specific examples of some of the roles that they execute. An understanding of the epidemiology of SRI presenting to the ED has implications for individual patients, sports governing bodies and health resource utilisation. Population screening is an important tool in health promotion and disease prevention in the general population. Screening in SEM may have similar less well-recognised benefits. The SEM specialist needs to be conversant in screening for medical conditions concerning physical activity. A comprehensive understanding of the pathophysiology of a disease is required for its diagnosis and treatment. Due to the ongoing evolution of SEM many treatments are eminence-based rather than evidence‐based practice. Continued re-examination of the fundamentals of current practice is essential. An awareness of potential unwanted side effects is essential prior to the introduction of any new treatment or intervention. The SEM specialist is ideally placed to advise sports governing bodies on these issues prior to and during their implementation.