Motivated reasoning in the prediction of sports outcomes and the belief in the “hot hand”

The present paper explores the role of motivation to observe a certain outcome in people's predictions, causal attributions, and beliefs about a streak of binary outcomes (basketball scoring shots). In two studies we found that positive streaks (points scored by the participants' favourite team) lead participants to predict the streak's continuation (belief in the hot hand), but negative streaks lead to predictions of its end (gambler's fallacy). More importantly, these wishful predictions are supported by strategic attributions and beliefs about how and why a streak might unfold. Results suggest that the effect of motivation on predictions is mediated by a serial path via causal attributions to the teams at play and belief in the hot hand.

Haren. Ett hot mot idrottens värde?

Inom friidrottens löpgrenar kan man idag se vid de stora galorna att det finns en person som har till uppgift att springa före övriga deltagare och springa i en viss fart som har beställts antingen av arrangörerna eller någon löpare. Denna person kallas för "hare" vars huvuduppgift är att se till att ett visst tempo hålls under loppet. Men vad har detta fenomen för effekt på idrottens värde? Detta arbete ger en beskrivning av fenomenet "haren" både ur historiskt perspektiv samt hur det ser ut i nutida läge. Genom diverse teorier om vad som skapar värde inom idrott och hur idrott bör utföras för att uppfattas som mer "äkta" har fenomenet sedan analyserats för att bestämma om fenomenet är något positivt eller negativt för idrottens värde. Prestationer är något som ska genomföras på egen hand och idrottaren skall besitta de resurser som krävs för att kunna genomföra ett lopp helt på egen hand och kunna hantera både interna och externa påfrestningar. Att inte veta vem som kommer att vinna är den ovisshet som skapar spänning och därmed värde inom idrott. Med haren har man eliminerat denna ovisshet för att i stället få spänning genom att fokusera loppen på att slå rekord. Detta sätt att skapa prestationer har en mycket negativ påverkan på idrottens värde vilket får en detaljerad analys i detta arbete.

Pedagoger i det sociala uppdragets gränstrakter : Att hantera familjerättsliga processer, hot och våld

Pedagogues in the borderland of their social task: dealing with family law proceedings, threats and violence Drawing upon an explorative study of family law proceedings from a school perspective, the aim of this paper is to examine the school staff’s strategies for solving or coping with problematic situations in this context. Gendered conflicts between adults and violence are extreme cases for pedagogues in school and preschool. How do the staff cope with their own and the children’s vulnerability? Based upon interviews with 22 informants, the staff’s strategies are outlined and discussed in relation to organizational and professional circumstances and intersecting social relations of power. An analytical construction of six types of proactive and reactive strategies, ranging from distance keeping to normalization of own exposure, is utilized in the analysis. Findings suggest that the staff’s strategies to handle challenging events in this context vary with the parent’s gender, class position and ethnicity. Further, it is argued that creating a sense of safety and promoting learning among the children may be obstructed by lack of support from the school’s organization, demands on staff to perform customer oriented attitudes towards parents and lack of clarity concerning the limits of the social task. Conflicts between the organization and profession on the one hand and the educational and the social task on the other hand, are thus illuminated. In conclusion, a further aim of this article is to contribute to broader discussions on men’s violence against women and children – in families as well as in workplaces and in the intersection between these two areas. 

Electricity, hot water and cold water production from biomass. Energetic and economical analysis of the compact system of cogeneration run with woodgas from a small downdraft gasifier

Wood gasification technologies to convert the biomass into fuel gas stand out. on the other hand, producing electrical energy from stationary engine is widely spread, and its application in rural communities where the electrical network doesn't exist is very required. The recovery of exhaust gases (engine) is a possibility that makes the system attractive when compared with the same components used to obtain individual heat such as electric power. This paper presents an energetic alternative to adapt a fixed bed gasifier with a compact cogeneration system in order to cover electrical and thermal demands in a rural area and showing an energy solution for small social communities using renewable fuels. Therefore, an energetic and economical analysis from a cogeneration system producing electric energy, hot and cold water, using wooden gas as fuel from a small-sized gasifier was calculated. The energy balance that includes the energy efficiency (electric generation as well as hot and cold water system; performance coefficient and the heat exchanger, among other items), was calculated. Considering the annual interest rates and the amortization periods, the costs of production of electrical energy, hot and cold water were calculated, taking into account the investment, the operation and the maintenance cost of the equipments. Crown Copyright (C) 2010 Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effects of milling condition on the surface integrity of hot forged steel

This paper presents a study on the influence of milling condition on workpiece surface integrity focusing on hardness and roughness. The experimental work was carried out on a CNC machining center considering roughing and finishing operations. A 25 mm diameter endmill with two cemented carbide inserts coated with TiN layer were used for end milling operation. Low carbon alloyed steel Cr-Mo forged at 1200 degrees C was used as workpiece on the tests. Two kinds of workpiece conditions were considered, i.e. cur cooled after hot forging and normalized at 950 degrees C for 2 h. The results showed that finishing operation was able to significantly decrease the roughness by at least 46% without changing the hardness. on the other hand, roughing operation caused an increase in hardness statistically significant by about 6%. The machined surface presented deformed regions within feed marks, which directly affected the roughness. Surface finish behavior seems to correlate to the chip ratio given the decrease of 25% for roughing condition, which damaged the chip formation. The material removal rate for finishing operation 41% greater than roughing condition demonstrated to be favorable to the heat dissipation and minimized the effect on material hardness.

Transiting exoplanets from the CoRoT space mission XIX. CoRoT-23b: a dense hot Jupiter on an eccentric orbit

We report the detection of CoRoT-23b, a hot Jupiter transiting in front of its host star with a period of 3.6314 +/- 0.0001 days. This planet was discovered thanks to photometric data secured with the CoRoT satellite, combined with spectroscopic radial velocity (RV) measurements. A photometric search for possible background eclipsing binaries conducted at CFHT and OGS concluded with a very low risk of false positives. The usual techniques of combining RV and transit data simultaneously were used to derive stellar and planetary parameters. The planet has a mass of M-p = 2.8 +/- 0.3 M-Jup, a radius of R-pl = 1.05 +/- 0.13 R-Jup, a density of approximate to 3 gcm(-3). RV data also clearly reveal a nonzero eccentricity of e = 0.16 +/- 0.02. The planet orbits a mature G0 main sequence star of V = 15.5 mag, with a mass M-star = 1.14 +/- 0.08 M-circle dot, a radius R-star = 1. 61 +/- 0.18 R-circle dot and quasi-solar abundances. The age of the system is evaluated to be 7 Gyr, not far from the transition to subgiant, in agreement with the rather large stellar radius. The two features of a significant eccentricity of the orbit and of a fairly high density are fairly uncommon for a hot Jupiter. The high density is, however, consistent with a model of contraction of a planet at this mass, given the age of the system. On the other hand, at such an age, circularization is expected to be completed. In fact, we show that for this planetary mass and orbital distance, any initial eccentricity should not totally vanish after 7 Gyr, as long as the tidal quality factor Q(p) is more than a few 10(5), a value that is the lower bound of the usually expected range. Even if CoRoT-23b features a density and an eccentricity that are atypical of a hot Jupiter, it is thus not an enigmatic object.

Service Brand Relationship Quality: Hot or Cold?

Customers’ long-term brand relations are crucial drivers of a service brand’s sustainable competitive advantage. This research empirically examines the quality of customer-service brand relationships in the context of an airline’s frequent flyer program. The authors show that service brand relationship quality (BRQ) involves both a hot (based on emotions) and a cold (based on objectrelevant beliefs) component. They find that these two components have different implications for a service brand’s performance and are at least partially driven by different antecedents whose relative importance changes over time. Specifically, cold BRQ is important for word-of-mouth behavior and is strongly driven by partner quality (i.e., the generalized assessment of the brand in its role as a relationship counterpart). Hot BRQ, on the other hand, has a stronger impact on willingness to pay a price premium and consideration set size. In early stages of a customer-brand relationship hot BRQ is more strongly driven by self-congruence (i.e., consumer’s perception of the fit between his/her self and the brand’s personality), in later stages partner quality becomes more relevant. The authors discuss the implications of their findings for the development of BRQ and the implementation of alternative growth strategies in a services context.

Chloroflexus spp. and Sulfurihydrogenibium spp. in microbial mats of the Nakabusa hot spring, Japan

Microbial mats develop in a wide range of aquatic habitats, such as geothermal hot springs, hypersaline ponds, marine cold seeps or hydrothermal vents. The Nakabusa hot spring is located in the Nagano Prefecture, Japan (36.3875N, 137.75E), dense olive-green microbial mats develop in regions where the slightly alkaline, sulfidic effluent has cooled to 65°C. The microbial community of such mats was analyzed by focusing on the diversity, as well as the in situ distribution and function of bacteria involved in sulfur cycling. Microbial mat samples were kept in sterile plastic tubes (for molecular analysis) or glass bottles completely filled with hot spring water to avoid oxidation. Samples were transferred to the laboratory on ice and used for physiological experiments within 8h. Quantification of cell biovolumes was carried out based on images of mat sections hybridized with Sulfurihydrogenibium- and Chloroflexi-specific probes, and stained with DAPI. In situ hybridizations (CARD-FISH) of thin matsections showed a heterogeneous vertical distribution of Sulfurihydrogenibium and Chloroflexus. Sulfurihydrogenibium dominated near the mat surface (50% of the total mat biovolume), while Chloroflexus dominated in deeper layers (up to 64% of the total mat biovolume).

Critical radius for hot-jet ignition of hydrogen-air mixtures

This study addresses deflagration initiation of lean and stoichiometric hydrogen–air mixtures by the sudden discharge of a hot jet of their adiabatic combustion products. The objective is to compute the minimum jet radius required for ignition, a relevant quantity of interest for safety and technological applications. For sufficiently small discharge velocities, the numerical solution of the problem requires integration of the axisymmetric Navier–Stokes equations for chemically reacting ideal-gas mixtures, supplemented by standard descriptions of the molecular transport terms and a suitably reduced chemical-kinetic mechanism for the chemistry description. The computations provide the variation of the critical radius for hot-jet ignition with both the jet velocity and the equivalence ratio of the mixture, giving values that vary between a few tens microns to a few hundred microns in the range of conditions explored. For a given equivalence ratio, the critical radius is found to increase with increasing injection velocities, although the increase is only moderately large. On the other hand, for a given injection velocity, the smallest critical radius is found at stoichiometric conditions.

The differential evolution of hot- and cold-dust in galaxies in the last 7.5 GYR

Tese de mestrado em Física, apresentada à Universidade de Lisboa, através da Faculdade de Ciências, 2016

Investigation on performance characteristics of dense graded hot mix asphalt with RAP and crumb rubber

The objective of this study was to fundamentally characterize the laboratory performance of traditional hot mix asphalt (HMA) mixtures incorporating high RAP content and waste tire crumb rubber through their fundamental engineering properties. The nominal maximum aggregates size was chosen for this research was 12mm (considering the limitation of aggregate size for surface layer) and both coarse and fine aggregates are commonly used in Italy that were examined and analyzed in this study. On the other hand, the RAP plays an important role in reducing production costs and enhancing the environmentally sustainable pavements instead of using virgin materials in HMA. Particularly, this study has aimed to use 30% of RAP content (25% fine aggregate RAP and 5% coarse aggregate RAP) and 1% of CR additives by the total weight of aggregates for mix design. The mixture of aggregates, RAP and CR were blended with different amount of unmodified binder through dry processes. Generally, the main purposes of this study were investigating on capability of using RAP and CR in dense graded HMA and comparing the performance of rejuvenator in RAP with CR. In addition, based on the engineering analyses during the study, we were able compare the fundamental Indirect Tensile Strength (ITS) value of dense graded HMA and also mechanical characteristics in terms of Indirect Tensile Stiffness Modulus (ITSM). In order to get an extended comparable data, four groups of different mixtures such as conventional mixture with only virgin aggregates (DV), mixture with RAP (DR), mixture with RAP and rejuvenator (DRR), and mixture with RAP, rejuvenator, CR (DRRCr) were investigated in this research experimentally. Finally, the results of those tests indicated that the mixtures with RAP and CR had the high stiffness and less thermal sensitivity, while the mixture with virgin aggregates only had very low values in comparison.

[factors That Influence Bone Mass Of Healthy Children And Adolescents Measured By Quantitative Ultrasound At The Hand Phalanges: A Systematic Review].

To analyze the main factors that influence bone mass in children and teenagers assessed by quantitative ultrasound (QUS) of the phalanges. A systematic literature review was performed according to the PRISMA method with searches in databases Pubmed/Medline, SciELO and Bireme for the period 2001-2012, in English and Portuguese languages, using the keywords: children, teenagers, adolescent, ultrasound finger phalanges, quantitative ultrasound of phalanges, phalangeal quantitative ultrasound. 21 articles were included. Girls had, in QUS, Amplitude Dependent Speed of Sound (AD-SoS) values higher than boys during pubertal development. The values of the parameters of QUS of the phalanges and dual-energy X-ray Absorptiometry (DXA) increased with the increase of the maturational stage. Anthropometric variables such as age, weight, height, body mass index (BMI), lean mass showed positive correlations with the values of QUS of the phalanges. Physical activity has also been shown to be positively associated with increased bone mass. Factors such as ethnicity, genetics, caloric intake and socioeconomic profile have not yet shown a conclusive relationship and need a larger number of studies. QUS of the phalanges is a method used to evaluate the progressive acquisition of bone mass during growth and maturation of individuals in school phase, by monitoring changes that occur with increasing age and pubertal stage. There were mainly positive influences in variables of sex, maturity, height, weight and BMI, with similar data when compared to the gold standard method, the DXA.

Hand and ultrasonic instrumentation for orthograde root canal treatment of permanent teeth

Root canal treatment is a frequently performed dental procedure and is carried out on teeth in which irreversible pulpitis has led to necrosis of the dental pulp. Removal of the necrotic tissue remnants and cleaning and shaping of the root canal are important phases of root canal treatment. Treatment options include the use of hand and rotary instruments and methods using ultrasonic or sonic equipment. OBJECTIVES: The objectives of this systematic review of randomized controlled trials were to determine the relative clinical effectiveness of hand instrumentation versus ultrasonic instrumentation alone or in conjunction with hand instrumentation for orthograde root canal treatment of permanent teeth. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The search strategy retrieved 226 references from the Cochrane Oral Health Group Trials Register (7), the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) (12), MEDLINE (192), EMBASE (8) and LILACS (7). No language restriction was applied. The last electronic search was conducted on December 13th, 2007. Screening of eligible studies was conducted in duplicate and independently. RESULTS: Results were to be expressed as fixed-effect or random-effects models using mean differences for continuous outcomes and risk ratios for dichotomous outcomes with 95% confdence intervals. Heterogeneity was to be investigated including both clinical and methodological factors. No eligible randomized controlled trials were identifed. CONCLUSIONS: This review illustrates the current lack of published or ongoing randomized controlled trials and the unavailability of high-level evidence based on clinically relevant outcomes referring to the effectiveness of ultrasonic instrumentation used alone or as an adjunct to hand instrumentation for orthograde root canal treatment. In the absence of reliable research-based evidence, clinicians should base their decisions on clinical experience, individual circumstances and in conjunction with patients' preferences where appropriate. Future randomized controlled trials might focus more closely on evaluating the effectiveness of combinations of these interventions with an emphasis on not only clinically relevant, but also patient-centered outcomes.

Mechanical properties and porosity of dental glass-ceramics hot-pressed at different temperatures

The objective of this work was to evaluate biaxial-flexural-strength (σf), Vickers hardness (HV), fracture toughness (K Ic), Young's modulus (E), Poisson's ratio (ν) and porosity (P) of two commercial glass-ceramics, Empress (E1) and Empress 2 (E2), as a function of the hot-pressing temperature. Ten disks were hot-pressed at 1065, 1070, 1075 and 1080 °C for E1; and at 910, 915, 920 and 925 °C for E2. The porosity was measured by an image analyzer software and s f was determined using the piston-on-three-balls method. K Ic and HV were determined by an indentation method. Elastic constants were determined by the pulse-echo method. For E1 samples treated at different temperatures, there were no statistical differences among the values of all evaluated properties. For E2 samples treated at different temperatures, there were no statistical differences among the values of σf, E, and ν, however HV and K Ic were significantly higher for 910 and 915 °C, respectively. Regarding P, the mean value obtained for E2 for 925 °C was significantly higher compared to other temperatures.

Association between intratumoral lymphatic microvessel density (LMVD) and clinicopathologic features in endometrial cancer: a retrospective cohort study

Background: Lymph node metastasis in endometrial cancer significantly decreases survival rate. Few data on the influence of intratumoral lymphatic microvessel density (LMVD) on survival in endometrial cancer are available. Our aim was to assess the intratumoral LMVD of endometrial carcinomas and to investigate its association with classical pathological factors, lymph node metastasis and survival. Methods: Fifty-seven patients with endometrial carcinoma diagnosed between 2000 and 2008 underwent complete surgical staging and evaluation of intratumoral LMVD and other histologic variables. Lymphatic microvessels were identified by immunohistochemical staining using monoclonal antibody against human podoplanin (clone D2-40) and evaluated by counting the number of immunostained lymphatic vessels in 10 hot spot areas at 400x magnification. The LMVD was expressed by the mean number of vessels in these 10 hot spot microscopic fields. We next investigated the association of LMVD with the clinicopathologic findings and prognosis. Results: The mean number of lymphatic vessels counted in all cases ranged between 0 and 4.7. The median value of mean LMVD was 0.5, and defined the cut-off for low and high LMVD. We identified low intratumoral LMVD in 27 (47.4%) patients and high LMVD in 30 (52.6%) patients. High intratumoral LMVD was associated with lesser miometrial and adnaexal infiltration, lesser cervical and peritoneal involvement, and fewer fatal cases. Although there was lower lymph node involvement among cases with high LMVD, the difference did not reach significance. No association was seen between LMVD and FIGO staging, histological type, or vascular invasion. On the other hand, low intratumoral LMVD was associated with poor outcome. Seventy-five percent of deaths occurred in patients with low intratumoral LMVD. Conclusion: Our results show association of high intratumoral LMVD with features related to more localized disease and better outcome. We discuss the role of lymphangiogenesis as an early event in the endometrial carcinogenesis.