Whither RDS? An investigation of respondent driven sampling as a method of recruiting mainstream marijuana users.

Background: An important challenge in conducting social research of specific relevance to harm reduction programs is locating hidden populations of consumers of substances like cannabis who typically report few adverse or unwanted consequences of their use. Much of the deviant, pathologized perception of drug users is historically derived from, and empirically supported, by a research emphasis on gaining ready access to users in drug treatment or in prison populations with higher incidence of problems of dependence and misuse. Because they are less visible, responsible recreational users of illicit drugs have been more difficult to study. Methods: This article investigates Respondent Driven Sampling (RDS) as a method of recruiting experienced marijuana users representative of users in the general population. Based on sampling conducted in a multi-city study (Halifax, Montreal, Toronto, and Vancouver), and compared to samples gathered using other research methods, we assess the strengths and weaknesses of RDS recruitment as a means of gaining access to illicit substance users who experience few harmful consequences of their use. Demographic characteristics of the sample in Toronto are compared with those of users in a recent household survey and a pilot study of Toronto where the latter utilized nonrandom self-selection of respondents. Results: A modified approach to RDS was necessary to attain the target sample size in all four cities (i.e., 40 'users' from each site). The final sample in Toronto was largely similar, however, to marijuana users in a random household survey that was carried out in the same city. Whereas well-educated, married, whites and females in the survey were all somewhat overrepresented, the two samples, overall, were more alike than different with respect to economic status and employment. Furthermore, comparison with a self-selected sample suggests that (even modified) RDS recruitment is a cost-effective way of gathering respondents who are more representative of users in the general population than nonrandom methods of recruitment ordinarily produce. Conclusions: Research on marijuana use, and other forms of drug use hidden in the general population of adults, is important for informing and extending harm reduction beyond its current emphasis on 'at-risk' populations. Expanding harm reduction in a normalizing context, through innovative research on users often overlooked, further challenges assumptions about reducing harm through prohibition of drug use and urges consideration of alternative policies such as decriminalization and legal regulation.

The game of contacts: Estimating the social visibility of groups

Estimating the sizes of hard-to-count populations is a challenging and important problem that occurs frequently in social science, public health, and public policy. This problem is particularly pressing in HIV/AIDS research because estimates of the sizes of the most at-risk populations-illicit drug users, men who have sex with men, and sex workers-are needed for designing, evaluating, and funding programs to curb the spread of the disease. A promising new approach in this area is the network scale-up method, which uses information about the personal networks of respondents to make population size estimates. However, if the target population has low social visibility, as is likely to be the case in HIV/AIDS research, scale-up estimates will be too low. In this paper we develop a game-like activity that we call the game of contacts in order to estimate the social visibility of groups, and report results from a study of heavy drug users in Curitiba, Brazil (n = 294). The game produced estimates of social visibility that were consistent with qualitative expectations but of surprising magnitude. Further, a number of checks suggest that the data are high-quality. While motivated by the specific problem of population size estimation, our method could be used by researchers more broadly and adds to long-standing efforts to combine the richness of social network analysis with the power and scale of sample surveys. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Prevalence of HIV risk-related behaviors among undocumented Central American immigrant women in Houston, Texas, 2010

The primary aim of this dissertation research is to provide epidemiological data on HIV risk-related behaviors among undocumented Central American immigrant women living in Houston, Texas. Between February and May 2010, we used respondent driven sampling (RDS) to recruit 230 Guatemalan, Honduran, and El Salvadoran women, ages 18 to 50 years, living in Houston without a valid United States visa or residency papers. RDS is a probability-based sampling method that utilizes social networks to access members of hidden populations that lack a sampling frame. Participants completed an interview regarding their demographics, access to and utilization of healthcare services, HIV testing, and sexual behaviors. Data from this study were used 1) to describe the prevalence of sexual HIV risk-related behaviors among undocumented Central American immigrant women, comparing those who recently immigrated to the U.S. (within the past five years) to those with more established residency (of over five years); 2) to describe the prevalence of lifetime HIV testing and evaluate its associated factors in this target population; and 3) to describe the effectiveness of RDS to access members of this target population. ^ As described in Paper 1, there was a generally low prevalence of individual HIV risk-related behaviors (i.e., multiple, concurrent, convenience, and casual sexual partnerships) among the undocumented Central American immigrant women in this study. However, there was evidence of HIV risk due to unprotected sex with male partners who have concurrent sexual partnerships. We identified recent immigrants as the subpopulation at greatest risk, as they were significantly more likely than established immigrants to have multiple and/or concurrent sexual partners. As described in Paper 2, the lifetime prevalence of HIV testing was almost 70%. After adjusting for age, number of years living in the U.S., income security, and resource barriers, lifetime HIV testing was significantly associated with being from Honduras, having more than a sixth grade education, having a regular healthcare provider, and having knowledge of available healthcare resources. Finally, as described in Paper 3, RDS was an effective method for obtaining a diverse sample of Central American immigrant women in Houston. ^ This project is the first to use RDS to conduct an HIV behavioral survey among undocumented Central American immigrant women. Our results will inform the design of future research studies and the implementation of HIV prevention activities among undocumented Central American immigrants in the U.S.^

A covariate adjustment for zero-truncated approaches to estimating the size of hidden and elusive populations

In this paper we consider the estimation of population size from onesource capture–recapture data, that is, a list in which individuals can potentially be found repeatedly and where the question is how many individuals are missed by the list. As a typical example, we provide data from a drug user study in Bangkok from 2001 where the list consists of drug users who repeatedly contact treatment institutions. Drug users with 1, 2, 3, . . . contacts occur, but drug users with zero contacts are not present, requiring the size of this group to be estimated. Statistically, these data can be considered as stemming from a zero-truncated count distribution.We revisit an estimator for the population size suggested by Zelterman that is known to be robust under potential unobserved heterogeneity. We demonstrate that the Zelterman estimator can be viewed as a maximum likelihood estimator for a locally truncated Poisson likelihood which is equivalent to a binomial likelihood. This result allows the extension of the Zelterman estimator by means of logistic regression to include observed heterogeneity in the form of covariates. We also review an estimator proposed by Chao and explain why we are not able to obtain similar results for this estimator. The Zelterman estimator is applied in two case studies, the first a drug user study from Bangkok, the second an illegal immigrant study in the Netherlands. Our results suggest the new estimator should be used, in particular, if substantial unobserved heterogeneity is present.

Robust estimation of local genetic ancestry in admixed populations using a nonparametric Bayesian approach.

We present a new haplotype-based approach for inferring local genetic ancestry of individuals in an admixed population. Most existing approaches for local ancestry estimation ignore the latent genetic relatedness between ancestral populations and treat them as independent. In this article, we exploit such information by building an inheritance model that describes both the ancestral populations and the admixed population jointly in a unified framework. Based on an assumption that the common hypothetical founder haplotypes give rise to both the ancestral and the admixed population haplotypes, we employ an infinite hidden Markov model to characterize each ancestral population and further extend it to generate the admixed population. Through an effective utilization of the population structural information under a principled nonparametric Bayesian framework, the resulting model is significantly less sensitive to the choice and the amount of training data for ancestral populations than state-of-the-art algorithms. We also improve the robustness under deviation from common modeling assumptions by incorporating population-specific scale parameters that allow variable recombination rates in different populations. Our method is applicable to an admixed population from an arbitrary number of ancestral populations and also performs competitively in terms of spurious ancestry proportions under a general multiway admixture assumption. We validate the proposed method by simulation under various admixing scenarios and present empirical analysis results from a worldwide-distributed dataset from the Human Genome Diversity Project.

Oscillations by minimal bacterial suicide circuits reveal hidden facets of host-circuit physiology.

Synthetic biology seeks to enable programmed control of cellular behavior though engineered biological systems. These systems typically consist of synthetic circuits that function inside, and interact with, complex host cells possessing pre-existing metabolic and regulatory networks. Nevertheless, while designing systems, a simple well-defined interface between the synthetic gene circuit and the host is frequently assumed. We describe the generation of robust but unexpected oscillations in the densities of bacterium Escherichia coli populations by simple synthetic suicide circuits containing quorum components and a lysis gene. Contrary to design expectations, oscillations required neither the quorum sensing genes (luxR and luxI) nor known regulatory elements in the P(luxI) promoter. Instead, oscillations were likely due to density-dependent plasmid amplification that established a population-level negative feedback. A mathematical model based on this mechanism captures the key characteristics of oscillations, and model predictions regarding perturbations to plasmid amplification were experimentally validated. Our results underscore the importance of plasmid copy number and potential impact of "hidden interactions" on the behavior of engineered gene circuits - a major challenge for standardizing biological parts. As synthetic biology grows as a discipline, increasing value may be derived from tools that enable the assessment of parts in their final context.

Using ancestry-informative markers to identify fine structure across 15 populations of European origin

The Wellcome Trust Case Control Consortium 3 anorexia nervosa genome-wide association scan includes 2907 cases from 15 different populations of European origin genotyped on the Illumina 670K chip. We compared methods for identifying population stratification, and suggest list of markers that may help to counter this problem. It is usual to identify population structure in such studies using only common variants with minor allele frequency (MAF) >5%; we find that this may result in highly informative SNPs being discarded, and suggest that instead all SNPs with MAF >1% may be used. We established informative axes of variation identified via principal component analysis and highlight important features of the genetic structure of diverse European-descent populations, some studied for the first time at this scale. Finally, we investigated the substructure within each of these 15 populations and identified SNPs that help capture hidden stratification. This work can provide information regarding the designing and interpretation of association results in the International Consortia. 

Using the hidden Markov model to capture quality of care in Lombardy geriatric wards

Quality of care is an important aspect of healthcare monitoring, which is used to ensure that the healthcare system is delivering care of the highest standard. With populations growing older there is an increased urgency in making sure that the healthcare delivered is of the highest standard. Healthcare providers are under increased pressure to ensure that this is the case with public and government demand expecting a healthcare system of the highest quality. Modelling quality of care is difficult to measure due to the many ways of defining it. This paper introduces a potential model which could be used to take quality of care into account when modelling length of stay. The Coxian phase-type distribution is used to model length of stay and the associated quality of care incorporated into the Coxian using a Hidden Markov model. Covariates are also introduced to determine their impact on the hidden level to find out what potentially can affect quality of care. This model is applied to geriatic patient data from the Lombardy region of Italy. The results obtained highlighted that bed numbers and the type of hospital (public or private) can have an effect on the quality of care delivered.

The hidden diversity of Coleodactylus amazonicus (Sphaerodactylinae, Gekkota) revealed by molecular data

Coleodactylus amazonicus, a small leaf-litter diurnal gecko widely distributed in Amazon Basin has been, considered a single species with no significant morphological differences between populations along its range. A recent molecular study, however, detected large genetic differences between populations of central Amazonia and those in the easternmost part of the Amazon Basin, suggesting the presence of taxonomically unrecognised diversity. In this study, DNA sequences of three mitochondrial (165, cytb, and ND4) and two nuclear genes (RAG-1, c-mos) were used to investigate whether the species currently identified as C. amazonicus contains morphologically cryptic species lineages. The present phylogenetic analysis reveals further genetic subdivision including at least five potential species lineages, restricted to northeastern (lineage A), southeastern (lineage B), central-northern (lineage E) and central-southern (lineages C and D) parts of Amazon Basin. All clades are characterized by exclusive groups of alleles for both nuclear genes and highly divergent mitochondrial haplotype clades, with corrected pairwise net sequence divergence between sister lineages ranging from 9.1% to 20.7% for the entire mtDNA dataset. Results of this study suggest that the real diversity of ""C. amazonicus"" has been underestimated due to its apparent cryptic diversification. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

DNA barcoding of Podonomus (Chironomidae, Podonominae) enables stage association of a named species and reveals hidden diversity in Brazilian inselbergs

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Hidden Effects of Chronic Tuberculosis in African Buffalo

Infectious diseases can bring about population declines and local host extinctions, contributing significantly to the global biodiversity crisis. Nonetheless, studies measuring population-level effects of pathogens in wild host populations are rare, and taxonomically biased toward avian hosts and macroparasitic infections. We investigated the effects of bovine tuberculosis (bTB), caused by the bacterial pathogen Mycobacterium bovis, on African buffalo (Syncerus caffer) at Hluhluwe-iMfolozi Park, South Africa. We tested 1180 buffalo for bTB infection between May 2000 and November 2001. Most infections were mild, confirming the chronic nature of the disease in buffalo. However, our data indicate that bTB affects both adult survival and fecundity. Using an age-structured population model, we demonstrate that the pathogen can reduce population growth rate drastically; yet its effects appear difficult to detect at the population level: bTB causes no conspicuous mass mortalities or fast population declines, nor does it alter host-population age structure significantly. Our models suggest that this syndrome—low detectability coupled with severe impacts on population growth rate and, therefore, resilience—may be characteristic of chronic diseases in large mammals.

Hidden Biodiversity in an Ecologically Important Freshwater Amphipod: Differences in Genetic Structure between Two Cryptic Species

Cryptic species, i.e. species that are morphologically hard to distinguish, have been detected repeatedly in various taxa and ecosystems. In order to evaluate the importance of this finding, we have to know in how far cryptic species differ in various aspects of their biology. The amphipod Gammarus fossarum is a key invertebrate in freshwater streams and contains several cryptic species. We examined the population genetic structure, genetic diversity and demographic history of two of them (type A and type B) using microsatellite markers and asked whether they show significant differences. We present results of population genetic analyses based on a total of 37 populations from the headwaters of two major European drainages, Rhine and Rhone. We found that, in both species, genetic diversity was geographically structured among and within drainages. For type A in the Rhine and type B in the Rhone, we detected significant patterns of isolation by distance. The increase of genetic differentiation with geographical distance, however, was much higher in type A than in type B. This result indicates substantial interspecific differences in population history and/or the extent of current gene flow between populations. In the Rhine, type B does not show evidence of isolation by distance, and population differentiation is relatively low across hundreds of kilometres. The majority of these populations also show signatures of recent bottlenecks. These patterns are consistent with a recent expansion of type B into the Rhine drainage. In summary, our results suggest considerable and previously unrecognized interspecific differences in the genetic structure of these cryptic keystone species.

Mitochondrial DNA reveals hidden diversity for tardigrades from across the Antarctic realm

Antarctica contains some of the most challenging environmental conditions on the planet due to freezing temperatures, prolonged winters and lack of liquid water. Whereas 99.7% of Antarctica is permanently covered by ice and snow, some coastal areas and mountain ridges have remained ice-free and are able to sustain populations of microinvertebrates. Tardigrades are one of the more dominant groups of microfauna in soil and limno-terrestrial habitats, but little is known of their diversity and distribution across Antarctica. Here, we examine tardigrades sampled from across an extensive region of continental Antarctica, and analyse and compare their partial mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase subunit 1 (COI) gene sequences with those from the Antarctic Peninsula, maritime and sub-Antarctica, Tierra del Fuego and other worldwide locations in order to recognise operational taxonomic units (OTUs). From 439 new tardigrade COI sequences, we identified 98 unique haplotypes (85 from Antarctica) belonging to Acutuncus, Diphascon, Echiniscus, Macrobiotus, Milnesium and unidentified Parachela. Operational taxonomic units were delimited by Poisson tree processes and general mixed Yule coalescent methods, resulting in 58 and 55 putative species, respectively. Most tardigrades appear to be locally endemic (i.e. restricted to a single geographic region), but some (e.g. Acutuncus antarcticus (Richters, 1904)) are widespread across continental Antarctica. Our molecular results reveal: (i) greater diversity than has previously been appreciated with distinct OTUs that potentially represent undescribed species, and (ii) a lack of connectivity between most OTUs from continental Antarctica and those from other Antarctic geographical zones.