Short-time behaviour of demand and price viewed through an exactly solvable model for heterogeneous interacting market agents

We introduce a stochastic heterogeneous interacting-agent model for the short-time non-equilibrium evolution of excess demand and price in a stylized asset market. We consider a combination of social interaction within peer groups and individually heterogeneous fundamentalist trading decisions which take into account the market price and the perceived fundamental value of the asset. The resulting excess demand is coupled to the market price. Rigorous analysis reveals that this feedback may lead to price oscillations, a single bounce, or monotonic price behaviour. The model is a rare example of an analytically tractable interacting-agent model which allows LIS to deduce in detail the origin of these different collective patterns. For a natural choice of initial distribution, the results are independent of the graph structure that models the peer network of agents whose decisions influence each other. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

STABILITY ANALYSIS WITH APPLICATIONS OF A TWO-DIMENSIONAL DYNAMICAL SYSTEM ARISING FROM A STOCHASTIC MODEL FOR AN ASSET MARKET

We analyze the stability properties of equilibrium solutions and periodicity of orbits in a two-dimensional dynamical system whose orbits mimic the evolution of the price of an asset and the excess demand for that asset. The construction of the system is grounded upon a heterogeneous interacting agent model for a single risky asset market. An advantage of this construction procedure is that the resulting dynamical system becomes a macroscopic market model which mirrors the market quantities and qualities that would typically be taken into account solely at the microscopic level of modeling. The system`s parameters correspond to: (a) the proportion of speculators in a market; (b) the traders` speculative trend; (c) the degree of heterogeneity of idiosyncratic evaluations of the market agents with respect to the asset`s fundamental value; and (d) the strength of the feedback of the population excess demand on the asset price update increment. This correspondence allows us to employ our results in order to infer plausible causes for the emergence of price and demand fluctuations in a real asset market. The employment of dynamical systems for studying evolution of stochastic models of socio-economic phenomena is quite usual in the area of heterogeneous interacting agent models. However, in the vast majority of the cases present in the literature, these dynamical systems are one-dimensional. Our work is among the few in the area that construct and study analytically a two-dimensional dynamical system and apply it for explanation of socio-economic phenomena.

Empirical Bayes method in the study of traffic safety via heterogeneous negative multinomial model

In the study of traffic safety, expected crash frequencies across sites are generally estimated via the negative binomial model, assuming time invariant safety. Since the time invariant safety assumption may be invalid, Hauer (1997) proposed a modified empirical Bayes (EB) method. Despite the modification, no attempts have been made to examine the generalisable form of the marginal distribution resulting from the modified EB framework. Because the hyper-parameters needed to apply the modified EB method are not readily available, an assessment is lacking on how accurately the modified EB method estimates safety in the presence of the time variant safety and regression-to-the-mean (RTM) effects. This study derives the closed form marginal distribution, and reveals that the marginal distribution in the modified EB method is equivalent to the negative multinomial (NM) distribution, which is essentially the same as the likelihood function used in the random effects Poisson model. As a result, this study shows that the gamma posterior distribution from the multivariate Poisson-gamma mixture can be estimated using the NM model or the random effects Poisson model. This study also shows that the estimation errors from the modified EB method are systematically smaller than those from the comparison group method by simultaneously accounting for the RTM and time variant safety effects. Hence, the modified EB method via the NM model is a generalisable method for estimating safety in the presence of the time variant safety and the RTM effects.

A graded BDI agent model to represent and reason about preferences

In this research note, we introduce a graded BDI agent development framework, g-BDI for short, that allows to build agents as multi-context systems that reason about three fundamental and graded mental attitudes (i.e. beliefs, desires and intentions). We propose a sound and complete logical framework for them and some logical extensions to accommodate slightly different views on desires. © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Dynamics of interacting Dicke model in a coupled-cavity array

We consider the dynamics of an array of mutually interacting cavities, each containing an ensemble of N two-level atoms. By exploring the possibilities offered by ensembles of various dimensions and a range of atom-light and photon-hopping values, we investigate the generation of multisite entanglement, as well as the performance of excitation transfer across the array, resulting from the competition between on-site nonlinearities of the matter-light interaction and intersite photon hopping. In particular, for a three-cavity interacting system it is observed that the initial excitation in the first cavity completely transfers to the ensemble in the third cavity through the hopping of photons between the adjacent cavities. Probabilities of the transfer of excitation of the cavity modes and ensembles exhibit characteristics of fast and slow oscillations governed by coupling and hopping parameters, respectively. In the large-hopping case, by seeding an initial excitation in the cavity at the center of the array, a tripartite W state, as well as a bipartite maximally entangled state, is obtained, depending on the interaction time. Population of the ensemble in a cavity has a positive impact on the rate of excitation transfer between the ensembles and their local cavity modes. In particular, for ensembles of five to seven atoms, tripartite W states can be produced even when the hopping rate is comparable to the cavity-atom coupling rate. A similar behavior of the transfer of excitation is observed for a four-coupled-cavity system with two initial excitations.

Multi-agent model for robotic assembly system

In this paper, a multi-agent based model for a robotic assembly system is presented. Firstly, an organization model is used to construct the multi-agent model. Secondly, a dynamic self-organizing method is then put forward for the multi-agent robotic system to bid and contract the operations. Thirdly, a real multi-agent robotic system is built and assembly experiments are carried out. Finally, the experimental results confirm that the present multi-agent robotic system has flexibility, adaptation and stability.

A study of train group operation multi-agent model oriented RITS

In this paper, aiming at describing interrelationships and communication mechanisms among agents based on a multi-agent framework of Railway Intelligent Transportation System (RITS), we construct the model about stations and trains in the system, which is called Agent-Oriented G-Net Train Group Operation Model (AGNTOM). The framework degrades the complexity of computation and makes the distribution of simulation system easy in design. The simulated experiments prove that the model provides an effective approach for dealing with communication problems in the system.

CARSA : A context-aware reasoning-based service agent model for AI planning of web service compostion

In order to achieve automatic and more intelligent service composition, dynamic description logic (DDL) is proposed and utilized as one emerging logic-level solution. However, reasoning optimization and utilization in such DDL-related solutions is still an open problem. In this paper, we propose the context-aware reasoning-based service agent model (CARSA) which exploits the relationships among different service consumers and providers, together with the corresponding optimization approach to strengthen the effectiveness of Web service composition. Through the model, two reasoning optimization methods are proposed based on the substitute relationship and the dependency relationship, respectively, so irrelevant actions can be filtered out of the reasoning space before the DDL reasoning process is carried out. The case study and experimental analysis demonstrates the capability of the proposed approach.