House price dynamics and bank herding: European empirical evidence

This paper investigates the behavior of residential property and examines the linkages between house price dynamics and bank herding behavior. The analysis presents evidence that irrational behaviour may have played a significant role in several countries, including; United Kingdom, Spain, Denmark, Sweden and Ireland. In addition, we also provide evidence indicative of herding behaviour in the European residential mortgage loan market. Granger Causality tests indicate that non-fundamentally justified prices dynamics contributed to herding by lenders and that this behaviour was a response by the banks as a group to common information on residential property assets. In contrast, in Germany, Portugal and Austria, residential property prices were largely explained by fundamentals. Furthermore, these countries show no evidence of either irrational price bubbles or herd behaviour in the mortgage market. Granger Causality tests indicate that both variables are independent.

Distribution and abundance of dugongs in Moreton Bay, Queensland, Australia

Dugong abundances in Moreton Bay (south-east Queensland) were estimated during six bi- monthly aerial surveys throughout 1995. Sampling intensity ranged between 20 and 80% for different sampling zones within the Bay, with a mean intensity of 40.5%. Population estimates for dugongs were corrected for perception bias ( the proportion of animals visible in the transect that were missed by observers), and standardised for availability bias ( the proportion of animals that were invisible due to water turbidity) with survey and species-specific correction factors. Population estimates for dugongs in Moreton Bay ranged from 503 +/- 64 (s.e.) in July to 1019 +/- 166 in January. The highest uncorrected count was 857 dugongs in December. This is greater than previous population estimates, suggesting that either previous surveys have underestimated abundance and/or that this population may have increased through recruitment, immigration, or a combination of both. The high degree of variation in population estimates between surveys may be due to temporal differences in distribution and herding behaviour. In winter, dugongs were found in smaller herds and were dispersed over a wider area than in summer. The Eastern Banks region of the bay supported 80 - 98% of the dugong population at any one time. Within this region, there were several dugong 'hot spots' that were visited repeatedly by large herds. These 'hot spots' contained seagrass communities that were dominated by species that dugongs prefer to eat. The waters of Rous Channel, South Passage and nearby oceanic waters are also frequently inhabited by dugongs in the winter months. Dugongs in other parts of Moreton Bay were at much lower densities than on the Eastern Banks.

Assessing the accuracy and dispersion of real estate investment forecasts

Existing empirical evidence has frequently observed that professional forecasters are conservative and display herding behaviour. Whilst a large number of papers have considered equities as well as macroeconomic series, few have considered the accuracy of forecasts in alternative asset classes such as real estate. We consider the accuracy of forecasts for the UK commercial real estate market over the period 1999-2011. The results illustrate that forecasters display a tendency to under-estimate growth rates during strong market conditions and over-estimate when the market is performing poorly. This conservatism not only results in smoothed estimates but also implies that forecasters display herding behaviour. There is also a marked difference in the relative accuracy of capital and total returns versus rental figures. Whilst rental growth forecasts are relatively accurate, considerable inaccuracy is observed with respect to capital value and total returns.

"We sold a million units": the role of advertising past-sales

In a market where past-sales embed information about consumers’ tastes (quality), we analyze the seller’s incentives to invest in a costly advertising campaign to report them under two informational assumptions. In the …rst scenario, a pooling equilibrium with past-sales advertising is derived. Information revelation only occurs when the seller bene…ciates from the herding behaviour that the advertising campaign induces on the part of consumers. In the second informational regime, a separating equilibrium with past-sales advertising is computed. Information revelation always happens, either through prices or through costly advertisements.

Multivariate FIAPARCH modelling of financial markets with dynamic correlations in times of crisis

This paper applies the vector AR-DCC-FIAPARCH model to eight national stock market indices' daily returns from 1988 to 2010, taking into account the structural breaks of each time series linked to the Asian and the recent Global financial crisis. We find significant cross effects, as well as long range volatility dependence, asymmetric volatility response to positive and negative shocks, and the power of returns that best fits the volatility pattern. One of the main findings of the model analysis is the higher dynamic correlations of the stock markets after a crisis event, which means increased contagion effects between the markets. The fact that during the crisis the conditional correlations remain on a high level indicates a continuous herding behaviour during these periods of increased market volatility. Finally, during the recent Global financial crisis the correlations remain on a much higher level than during the Asian financial crisis.

Behaviour of oligodendrocytes and Schwann cells in an experimental model of toxic demyelination of the central nervous system

Oligodendrocytes and Schwann cells are engaged in myelin production, maintenance and repairing respectively in the central nervous system (CNS) and the peripheral nervous system (PNS). Whereas oligodendrocytes act only within the CNS, Schwann cells are able to invade the CNS in order to make new myelin sheaths around demyelinated axons. Both cells have some limitations in their activities, i.e. oligodendrocytes are post-mitotic cells and Schwann cells only get into the CNS in the absence of astrocytes. Ethidium bromide (EB) is a gliotoxic chemical that when injected locally within the CNS, induce demyelination. In the EB model of demyelination, glial cells are destroyed early after intoxication and Schwann cells are free to approach the naked central axons. In normal Wistar rats, regeneration of lost myelin sheaths can be achieved as early as thirteen days after intoxication; in Wistar rats immunosuppressed with cyclophosphamide the process is delayed and in rats administered cyclosporine it may be accelerated. Aiming the enlightening of those complex processes, all events concerning the myelinating cells in an experimental model are herein presented and discussed.

Behaviour of albino and melanic variants of Biomphalaria glabrata Say, 1818 (Mollusca: Planorbidae) following infection by Schistosoma mansoni Sambon, 1907

The behaviour of the albino and melanic variants of Biomphalaria glabrata of Belo Horizonte (MG. Brazil) was studied comparatively, in terms of their respective susceptibilities to infection by Schistosoma mansoni of the same origin, through observation of the elimination of cercariae for a three-month period and the calculation of mortality and infection rates, in control and in infected snails. The number of amoebocytes, granulocytes and hyalinocytes in the circulating hemolymph during different periods of infection was analyzed. The evolution of the infection in the tissues was observed by means of histological cross-sections. The melanic variant showed greater susceptibility to infection and a higher mortality rate. The albino variant showed a higher number of circulating amoebocytes, both granulocytes and hyalinocytes. A higher number of degenerated sporocysts were seen in the histological cross-sections of the albino variant. The results suggest that the melanic variant of B. glabrata was more susceptible to infection by S. mansoni than was the albino variant.

Food profitability affects intranidal recruitment behaviour in the stingless bee Nannotrigona testaceicornis

Does the food's sugar concentration affect recruitment behaviour in the stingless bee Nan-notrigona testaceicornis? We recorded intranidal forager behaviour while offering sugar water of constant, increasing, or decreasing concentrations. Running speed was not correlated with sugar concentration but the jostling contacts/sec were. Food profitability also affected the recruiter's thorax vibrations: Pulse duration and duty cycle followed both concentration increases and decreases. Sugar concentration also influenced the number of recruited bees. In comparison to the phylogenetically closely related Scaptotrigona, Nan-notrigona's intranidal recruitment behaviour showed a more elaborate association with food profitability. This is likely to reflect differences in ecology and foraging strategies as Nannotrigona - in contrast to Scaptotrigona - does not lay scent trails to guide recruits to a food source.

Contrasting photoelectrochemical behaviour of two isomeric supramolecular dyes based on meso-tetra(pyridyl)porphyrin incorporating four (mu(3)-oxo)- triruthenium(III) clusters

A saddle shaped tetracluster porphyrin species containing four [Ru(3)O(OAc)(6)(py)(2)](+) clusters coordinated to the N-pyridyl atoms of 5,10,15,20-tetra(3-pyridyl)porphyrin, H(2)(3-TCPyP), has been investigated in comparison with the planar tetra(4-pyridyl) porphyrin analogue H(2)(4-TCPyP). The steric effects from the bulky peripheral complexes play a critical role in the H(2)(3-TCPyP) species, determining a non-planar configuration around the porphyrin centre and precluding any significant pi-electronic coupling, in contrast with the less hindered H(2)(4-TCPyP) species. Both systems exhibit a photoelectrochemical response in the presence of nanocrystalline TiO(2) films, involving the porphyrin excitation around 450 nm. However, only in the H(2)(4-TCPyP) case do the cluster moieties also contribute to the photoinduced electron injection process at 670 nm, reflecting the relevance of the electronic coupling between the porphyrin centre and the peripheral complexes.

Behaviour of biofuel addition on metallurgical properties of sinter

Blast furnace gas yield is essentially controlled by a gas-solid reaction phenomenon, which strongly influences hot metal manufacturing costs. As a result of rising prices for reducing agents on the international market, Companhia Siderurgica Nacional decided to inject natural gas into its blast furnaces. With more gas inside the furnace, the burden permeability became even more critical. To improve blast furnace gas yield, a new technological approach was adopted; raising the metallic burden reaction surface. To that end, a special sinter was developed with permeability being controlled by adding micropore nucleus forming agents, cellulignin coal, without, however, degrading its mechanical properties. This paper shows the main process parameters and the results from physicochemical characterisation of a sinter with controlled permeability, on a pilot scale, compared to those of conventional sinter. Gas flow laboratory simulations have conclusively corroborated the positive effects of micropore nucleus forming agents on enhancing sinter permeability.

Wetting behaviour of silicon nitride ceramics by Ti-Cu alloys

The wetting of Ti-Cu alloys on Si3N4 was analyzed by the sessile drop method, using an imaging system with a CCD camera during the heating under argon flow. The contact angle was measured as a function of temperature and time. The samples were cut transversally and characterized by scanning electron microscopy and energy dispersive spectrometry (SEM/EDS). Wettability of the Ti-Cu alloy on Si3N4 is influenced by the reaction between the Ti and the ceramic. The TC1 and TC2 alloys presented low final contact angle values around 2 degrees and 26 degrees, respectively, indicating good wetting on Si3N4. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd and Techna Group S.r.l. All rights reserved.

Crystallisation behaviour and glass-forming ability in Al-La-Ni system

The crystallisation behaviour for alloys in the Al-rich corner in the Al-La-Ni system is reported in this paper Alloys were selected based on the topological instability criterion (lambda criterion) calculated from the alloy composition and metallic radii of the alloying elements and aluminum Amorphous ribbons were produced by melt-spinning and the crystallisation reactions were analysed by X-ray diffraction and calorimetry The results showed that increasing the values of lambda from 0.072 to 0.16 resulted in the following changes in the crystallisation behaviour, as predicted by the lambda criterion (a) nanocrystallisation of alpha-Al for the alloy composition corresponding to lambda = 0 072 and (b) detection of the glass transition temperature, T(g), for the alloys with composition close to lambda approximate to 0.1 line. For compositions corresponding to both ends of the lambda approximate to 0 1 line (near the binaries lines) T(g) could be detected only in the ""intermediary"" central region, and the alloy we produced in this region was considered the best glass former for the Al-rich corner Also, except for the alloys with the highest NI content, crystallisation proceeded by two distinct exothermic peaks which are typical of nanocrystallisation transformation. These behaviours are discussed in terms of compositional (lambda parameter) and topological aspects to account for cluster formation in the amorphous phase. Crown Copyright (C) 2009 Published by Elsevier B V All rights reserved

A numerical model for the description of the nonlinear behaviour of multi-leaf masonry walls

A nonlinear finite element model was developed to simulate the nonlinear response of three-leaf masonry specimens, which were subjected to laboratory tests with the aim of investigating the mechanical behaviour of multiple-leaf stone masonry walls up to failure. The specimens consisted of two external leaves made of stone bricks and mortar joints, and an internal leaf in mortar and stone aggregate. Different loading conditions, typologies of the collar joints, and stone types were taken into account. The constitutive law implemented in the model is characterized by a damage tensor, which allows the damage-induced anisotropy accompanying the cracking process to be described. To follow the post-peak behaviour of the specimens with sufficient accuracy it was necessary to make the damage model non-local, to avoid mesh-dependency effects related to the strain-softening behaviour of the material. Comparisons between the predicted and measured failure loads are quite satisfactory in most of the studied cases. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Structural behaviour of three-pile caps subjected to axial compressive loading

This work presents a comparative analysis about the behaviour of pile caps supported by 3 piles subjected to axial loading. Piles with 20 cm and 30 cm diameters were analysed. The main reinforcement was maintained in all the specimens, however, the arrangement of the secondary reinforcement varied. The main reinforcement consisted of steel bars connecting the piles. The secondary reinforcement was made up of: (a) bars going through the piles and through the projection of the column, (b) bars forming a network, and (c) vertical and horizontal stirrups. The main objective was the observation of the pile cap behaviour regarding the cracks and the modes of rupture. The real scale specimens were subjected to experimental tests until failure by rupture. Instruments were placed with the aim to obtain the displacement of the bases, the strains in the main and secondary reinforcement bars, in the compression struts, in the lower and upper nodal zones and in the sides of the caps. None of the caps reached failure by rupture with a load less than 1.12 times the theoretical load. The specimens ruptured due to the cracking of the compression strut and/or the yielding of the reinforcement bars in one direction.

Fatigue behaviour of friction stir welded AA2024-T3 alloy: longitudinal and transverse crack growth

The fatigue crack growth properties of friction stir welded joints of 2024-T3 aluminium alloy have been studied under constant load amplitude (increasing-Delta K), with special emphasis on the residual stress (inverse weight function) effects on longitudinal and transverse crack growth rate predictions (Glinka`s method). In general, welded joints were more resistant to longitudinally growing fatigue cracks than the parent material at threshold Delta K values, when beneficial thermal residual stresses decelerated crack growth rate, while the opposite behaviour was observed next to K-C instability, basically due to monotonic fracture modes intercepting fatigue crack growth in weld microstructures. As a result, fatigue crack growth rate (FCGR) predictions were conservative at lower propagation rates and non-conservative for faster cracks. Regarding transverse cracks, intense compressive residual stresses rendered welded plates more fatigue resistant than neat parent plate. However, once the crack tip entered the more brittle weld region substantial acceleration of FCGR occurred due to operative monotonic tensile modes of fracture, leading to non-conservative crack growth rate predictions next to K-C instability. At threshold Delta K values non-conservative predictions values resulted from residual stress relaxation. Improvements on predicted FCGR values were strongly dependent on how the progressive plastic relaxation of the residual stress field was considered.