Estudo técnico-económico de um sistema solar termoelétrico com back-up a biomassa

Este trabalho consistiu no estudo técnico-económico (dimensionamento) de uma central térmica solar de torre norte, com back-up a biomassa (pellets) para produção de energia elétrica. A partir da plataforma PVGIS obteve-se a irradiação normal direta, DNI, da região do Alentejo, Portugal, segundo critérios descritos na secção 3.1. O valor anual obtido foi de 2319 !"ℎ/%&, valor este que foi convertido em energia elétrica, obtendo-se, assim, um montante de 105.761.800 kWh por ano, em 25 anos. Estas importâncias foram obtidas através dos equipamentos que constituem a central, entre eles o campo solar (composto por 2067 helióstatos com área total de 188097 %&), a torre (convertendo a concentração da DNI para energia térmica ao fluído de transferência de calor, HTF), o bloco de potência (composta por permutador de calor, turbina, gerador elétrico e outros) e com ajuda de uma caldeira a biomassa (pellets) que consome cerca de 24.001,23 toneladas de pellets por ano. O estudo económico foi realizado num modelo executável no Excel, calculando, assim, o custo total do sistema, 138.515.886,87 €. A partir deste valor calcularam-se os indicadores económicos (Valor Atualizado Líquido, VAL=-12.282540,28 €) com uma tarifa bonificada de 0,22114 €/kWh, que indica que o sistema termo solar com back-up a biomassa (pellets) não é viável economicamente (e o mesmo acontece com o sistema termo solar sem a biomassa). O dimensionamento técnico do sistema CSP de torre é feito a partir de um modelo matemático executado em Excel e MatLab e pelo software System Advisor Model, SAM e o da caldeira a pellets é concretizado também no Excel. Os resultados do modelo matemático foram comparados com os valores obtidos no SAM para o mês típico de julho comprovando, assim, as fórmulas e conceitos contidos no estado da arte. Realizou-se, também, uma comparação dos valores anuais do sistema obtidos no SAM com os valores reais da Gemasolar (em Espanha), demonstrando então a veracidade dos valores obtidos no dimensionamento feito para Portugal.

SolarPaces 2013: Innovations on direct steam generation in linear fresnel collectors

Direct Steam Generation (DSG) in Linear Fresnel (LF) solar collectors is being consolidated as a feasible technology for Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) plants. The competitiveness of this technology relies on the following main features: water as heat transfer fluid (HTF) in Solar Field (SF), obtaining high superheated steam temperatures and pressures at turbine inlet (500ºC and 90 bar), no heat tracing required to avoid HTF freezing, no HTF degradation, no environmental impacts, any heat exchanger between SF and Balance Of Plant (BOP), and low cost installation and maintenance. Regarding to LF solar collectors, were recently developed as an alternative to Parabolic Trough Collector (PTC) technology. The main advantages of LF are: the reduced collector manufacturing cost and maintenance, linear mirrors shapes versus parabolic mirror, fixed receiver pipes (no ball joints reducing leaking for high pressures), lower susceptibility to wind damages, and light supporting structures allowing reduced driving devices. Companies as Novatec, Areva, Solar Euromed, etc., are investing in LF DSG technology and constructing different pilot plants to demonstrate the benefits and feasibility of this solution for defined locations and conditions (Puerto Errado 1 and 2 in Murcia Spain, Lidellin Newcastle Australia, Kogran Creek in South West Queensland Australia, Kimberlina in Bakersfield California USA, Llo Solar in Pyrénées France,Dhursar in India,etc). There are several critical decisions that must be taken in order to obtain a compromise and optimization between plant performance, cost, and durability. Some of these decisions go through the SF design: proper thermodynamic operational parameters, receiver material selection for high pressures, phase separators and recirculation pumps number and location, pipes distribution to reduce the amount of tubes (reducing possible leaks points and transient time, etc.), etc. Attending to these aspects, the correct design parameters selection and its correct assessment are the main target for designing DSG LF power plants. For this purpose in the recent few years some commercial software tools were developed to simulatesolar thermal power plants, the most focused on LF DSG design are Thermoflex and System Advisor Model (SAM). Once the simulation tool is selected,it is made the study of the proposed SFconfiguration that constitutes the main innovation of this work, and also a comparison with one of the most typical state-of-the-art configuration. The transient analysis must be simulated with high detail level, mainly in the BOP during start up, shut down, stand by, and partial loads are crucial, to obtain the annual plant performance. An innovative SF configurationwas proposed and analyzed to improve plant performance. Finally it was demonstrated thermal inertia and BOP regulation mode are critical points in low sun irradiation day plant behavior, impacting in annual performance depending on power plant location.

Comparison between SAM and Thermoflow for Linear Fresnel Solar Power Plants design

System Advisor Model is a software tool develped by National Renewable Laboratory (NREL), Department Of Energy, USA to design Solar Power Plants.

A feature-based object-oriented expert system to model and support product design

In this paper a computer program to model and support product design is presented. The product is represented through a hierarchical structure that allows the user to navigate across the product’s components, and it aims at facilitating each step of the detail design process. A graphical interface was also developed, which shows visually to the user the contents of the product structure. Features are used as building blocks for the parts that compose the product, and object-oriented methodology was used as a means to implement the product structure. Finally, an expert system was also implemented, whose knowledge base rules help the user design a product that meets design and manufacturing requirements.

Healthcare Information System Selection Model for Medical Clinics

The issue of selecting an appropriate healthcare information system is a very essential one. If implemented healthcare information system doesn’t fit particular healthcare institution, for example there are unnecessary functions; healthcare institution wastes its resources and its efficiency decreases. The purpose of this research is to develop a healthcare information system selection model to assist the decision-making process of choosing healthcare information system. Appropriate healthcare information system helps healthcare institutions to become more effective and efficient and keep up with the times. The research is based on comparison analysis of 50 healthcare information systems and 6 interviews with experts from St-Petersburg healthcare institutions that already have experience in healthcare information system utilization. 13 characteristics of healthcare information systems: 5 key and 7 additional features are identified and considered in the selection model development. Variables are used in the selection model in order to narrow the decision algorithm and to avoid duplication of brunches. The questions in the healthcare information systems selection model are designed to be easy-to-understand for common a decision-maker in healthcare institution without permanent establishment.

A system's model for maintenance support and decision making in building services systems

Modern buildings are designed to enhance the match between environment, spaces and the people carrying out work, so that the well-being and the performance of the occupants are all in harmony. Building services are systems that facilitate a healthy working environment within which workers productivity can be optimised in the buildings. However, the maintenance of these services is fraught with problems that may contribute to up to 50% of the total life cycle cost of the building. Maintenance support is one area which is not usually designed into the system as this is not common practice in the services industry. The other areas of shortfall for future designs are; client requirements, commissioning, facilities management data and post occupancy evaluation feedback which needs to be adequately planned to capture and document this information for use in future designs. At the University of Reading an integrated approach has been developed to assemble the multitude of aspects inherent in this field. The means records required and measured achievements for the benefit of both building owners and practitioners. This integrated approach can be represented in a Through Life Business Model (TLBM) format using the concept of Integrated Logistic Support (ILS). The prototype TLBM developed utilises the tailored tools and techniques of ILS for building services. This TLBM approach will facilitate the successful development of a databank that would be invaluable in capturing essential data (e.g. reliability of components) for enhancing future building services designs, life cycle costing and decision making by practitioners, in particular facilities managers.

Development of a fermentation system to model sessile bacterial populations in the human colon

A fermentation system was designed to model the human colonic microflora in vitro. The system provided a framework of mucin beads to encourage the adhesion of bacteria, which was encased within a dialysis membrane. The void between the beads was inoculated with faeces from human donors. Water and metabolites were removed from the fermentation by osmosis using a solution of polyethylene glycol (PEG). The system was concomitantly inoculated alongside a conventional single-stage chemostat. Three fermentations were carried out using inocula from three healthy human donors. Bacterial populations from the chemostat and biofilm system were enumerated using fluorescence in situ hybridization. The culture fluid was also analysed for its short-chain fatty acid (SCFA) content. A higher cell density was achieved in the biofilm fermentation system (taking into account the contribution made by the bead-associated bacteria) as compared with the chemostat, owing to the removal of water and metabolites. Evaluation of the bacterial populations revealed that the biofilm system was able to support two distinct groups of bacteria: bacteria growing in association with the mucin beads and planktonic bacteria in the culture fluid. Furthermore, distinct differences were observed between populations in the biofilm fermenter system and the chemostat, with the former supporting higher populations of clostridia and Escherichia coli. SCFA levels were lower in the biofilm system than in the chemostat, as in the former they were removed via the osmotic effect of the PEG. These experiments demonstrated the potential usefulness of the biofilm system for investigating the complexity of the human colonic microflora and the contribution made by sessile bacterial populations.

Exploring behavioural change through an agent-oriented system dynamics model: the use of personal protective equipment among pesticide applicators in Colombia

The misuse of Personal Protective Equipment results in health risk among smallholders in developing countries, and education is often proposed to promote safer practices. However, evidence point to limited effects of education. This paper presents a System Dynamics model which allows the identification of risk-minimizing policies for behavioural change. The model is based on the IAC framework and survey data. It represents farmers' decision-making from an agent-oriented standpoint. The most successful intervention strategy was the one which intervened in the long term, targeted key stocks in the systems and was diversified. However, the results suggest that, under these conditions, no policy is able to trigger a self sustaining behavioural change. Two implementation approaches were suggested by experts. One, based on constant social control, corresponds to a change of the current model's parameters. The other, based on participation, would lead farmers to new thinking, i.e. changes in their decision-making structure.

Sensitivity of an Earth system climate model to idealized radiative forcing

We diagnose forcing and climate feedbacks in benchmark sensitivity experiments with the new Met Office Hadley Centre Earth system climate model HadGEM2-ES. To identify the impact of newly-included biogeophysical and chemical processes, results are compared to a parallel set of experiments performed with these processes switched off, and different couplings with the biogeochemistry. In abrupt carbon dioxide quadrupling experiments we find that the inclusion of these processes does not alter the global climate sensitivity of the model. However, when the change in carbon dioxide is uncoupled from the vegetation, or when the model is forced with a non-carbon dioxide forcing – an increase in solar constant – new feedbacks emerge that make the climate system less sensitive to external perturbations. We identify a strong negative dust-vegetation feedback on climate change that is small in standard carbon dioxide sensitivity experiments due to the physiological/fertilization effects of carbon dioxide on plants in this model.

Tayloring Brazil: a system dynamics model for monetary policy feedback

The thesis introduces a system dynamics Taylor rule model of new Keynesian nature for monetary policy feedback in Brazil. The nonlinear Taylor rule for interest rate changes con-siders gaps and dynamics of GDP growth and inflation. The model closely tracks the 2004 to 2011 business cycle and outlines the endogenous feedback between the real interest rate, GDP growth and inflation. The model identifies a high degree of endogenous feedback for monetary policy and inflation, while GDP growth remains highly exposed to exogenous eco-nomic conditions. The results also show that the majority of the monetary policy moves during the sample period was related to GDP growth, despite higher coefficients of inflation parameters in the Taylor rule. This observation challenges the intuition that inflation target-ing leads to a dominance of monetary policy moves with respect to inflation. Furthermore, the results suggest that backward looking price-setting with respect to GDP growth has been the dominant driver of inflation. Moreover, simulation exercises highlight the effects of the new BCB strategy initiated in August 2011 and also consider recession and inflation avoid-ance versions of the Taylor rule. In methodological terms, the Taylor rule model highlights the advantages of system dynamics with respect to nonlinear policies and to the stock-and-flow approach. In total, the strong historical fit and some counterintuitive observations of the Taylor rule model call for an application of the model to other economies.

Forecasting the need for medical specialists in Spain: application of a system dynamics model

[EN] Background: Spain has gone from a surplus to a shortage of medical doctors in very few years. Medium and long-term planning for health professionals has become a high priority for health authorities. Methods: We created a supply and demand/need simulation model for 43 medical specialties using system dynamics. The model includes demographic, education and labour market variables. Several scenarios were defined. Variables controllable by health planners can be set as parameters to simulate different scenarios. The model calculates the supply and the deficit or surplus. Experts set the ratio of specialists needed per 1000 inhabitants with a Delphi method. Results: In the scenario of the baseline model with moderate population growth, the deficit of medical specialists will grow from 2% at present (2800 specialists) to 14.3% in 2025 (almost 21 000). The specialties with the greatest medium-term shortages are Anesthesiology, Orthopedic and Traumatic Surgery, Pediatric Surgery, Plastic Aesthetic and Reparatory Surgery, Family and Community Medicine, Pediatrics, Radiology, and Urology. Conclusions: The model suggests the need to increase the number of students admitted to medical school. Training itineraries should be redesigned to facilitate mobility among specialties. In the meantime, the need to make more flexible the supply in the short term is being filled by the immigration of physicians from new members of the European Union and from Latin America.

A survey of the implementation status of environmental management systems in U.S. colleges and universities, and, An environmental management system implementation model for U.S. colleges and universities

A census of 925 U.S. colleges and universities offering masters and doctorate degrees was conducted in order to study the number of elements of an environmental management system as defined by ISO 14001 possessed by small, medium and large institutions. A 30% response rate was received with 273 responses included in the final data analysis. Overall, the number of ISO 14001 elements implemented among the 273 institutions ranged from 0 to 16, with a median of 12. There was no significant association between the number of elements implemented among institutions and the size of the institution (p = 0.18; Kruskal-Wallis test) or among USEPA regions (p = 0.12; Kruskal-Wallis test). The proportion of U.S. colleges and universities that reported having implemented a structured, comprehensive environmental management system, defined by answering yes to all 16 elements, was 10% (95% C.I. 6.6%–14.1%); however 38% (95% C.I. 32.0%–43.8%) reported that they had implemented a structured, comprehensive environmental management system, while 30.0% (95% C.I. 24.7%–35.9%) are planning to implement a comprehensive environmental management system within the next five years. Stratified analyses were performed by institution size, Carnegie Classification and job title. ^ The Osnabruck model, and another under development by the South Carolina Sustainable Universities Initiative, are the only two environmental management system models that have been proposed specifically for colleges and universities, although several guides are now available. The Environmental Management System Implementation Model for U.S. Colleges and Universities developed is an adaptation of the ISO 14001 standard and USEPA recommendations and has been tailored to U.S. colleges and universities for use in streamlining the implementation process. In using this implementation model created for the U.S. research and academic setting, it is hoped that these highly specialized institutions will be provided with a clearer and more cost-effective path towards the implementation of an EMS and greater compliance with local, state and federal environmental legislation. ^

Northwards and eastwards velocities extracted from a historical run (for the year 2000) of the UVic Earth System Climate Model of Weaver et al. (2001)

This study provides a theoretical assessment of the potential bias due to differential lateral transport on multi-proxy studies based on a range of marine microfossils. Microfossils preserved in marine sediments are at the centre of numerous proxies for paleoenvironmental reconstructions. The precision of proxies is based on the assumption that they accurately represent the overlying watercolumn properties and faunas. Here we assess the possibility of a syn-depositional bias in sediment assemblages caused by horizontal drift in the water column, due to differential settling velocities of sedimenting particles based on their shape, size and density, and due to differences in current velocities. Specifically we calculate the post-mortem lateral transport undergone by planktic foraminifera and a range of other biological proxy carriers (diatoms, radiolaria and fecal pellets transporting coccolithophores) in several regions with high current velocities. We find that lateral transport of different planktic foraminiferal species is minimal due to high settling velocities. No significant shape- or size-dependent sorting occurs before reaching the sediment, making planktic foraminiferal ideal proxy carriers. In contrast, diatoms, radiolaria and fecal pellets can be transported up to 500km in some areas. For example in the Agulhas current, transport can lead to differences of up to 2°C in temperature reconstructions between different proxies in response to settling velocities. Therefore, sediment samples are likely to contain different proportions of local and imported particles, decreasing the precision of proxies based on these groups and the accuracy of the temperature reconstruction.