Heatwave planning: the role of the community in co-producing resilience

Drawing on a thematic analysis of relevant policy documents, the aim of this paper is to comment on an apparent disconnect between two associated contemporary UK policy areas: planning for heatwaves and community resilience. Regional and national policy documents that plan for heatwaves in the UK tend to focus on institutional emergency responses and infrastructure development. In these documents, although communities are mentioned, they are understood as passive recipients of resilience that is provided by active institutions. Meanwhile, contemporary discussion about community resilience highlights the potential for involving communities in planning for and responding to emergencies (although the concept is also the subject of critique). Within this context, the paper proposes that – through engagement with the ‘community resilience’ policy agenda and its critique – effort should be made to articulate and realise greater participation by individuals, and voluntary and community sector groups in heatwave preparation, planning and response.

Ranking of interventions to reduce dwelling overheating during heatwaves

Extreme weather events, including heatwaves, are predicted to increase in both frequency and severity over the coming decades. Low house building rates and a growing population mean there is a need to adapt existing dwellings. Research presented here uses dynamic thermal simulation to model the effect of passive heatwave mitigating interventions for UK dwellings. Interventions include a range of additions and modifications to solar shading, insulation and ventilation. Results are presented for typical end and mid terrace houses, with four orientations, two occupancy profiles and using weather data from the 2003 heatwave. Results show the effectiveness of interventions that reduce solar gains through the building fabric, such as external wall insulation and solar reflective coatings. Internal wall insulation is shown to be less effective and can increase the overheating problem in some cases. Control of solar gains through glazing, using shutters and fixed shading, are also effective, particularly for south, east and west-facing rooms. Results are also presented which demonstrate how it is possible to select combinations of interventions that both eliminate overheating and reduce space heating energy use. The cost of interventions is also considered in the final analysis.

Improving the health forecasting alert system for cold weather and heat-waves in England: a proof-of-concept using temperature-mortality relationships

Objectives In this study a prototype of a new health forecasting alert system is developed, which is aligned to the approach used in the Met Office’s (MO) National Severe Weather Warning Service (NSWWS). This is in order to improve information available to responders in the health and social care system by linking temperatures more directly to risks of mortality, and developing a system more coherent with other weather alerts. The prototype is compared to the current system in the Cold Weather and Heatwave plans via a case-study approach to verify its potential advantages and shortcomings. Method The prototype health forecasting alert system introduces an “impact vs likelihood matrix” for the health impacts of hot and cold temperatures which is similar to those used operationally for other weather hazards as part of the NSWWS. The impact axis of this matrix is based on existing epidemiological evidence, which shows an increasing relative risk of death at extremes of outdoor temperature beyond a threshold which can be identified epidemiologically. The likelihood axis is based on a probability measure associated with the temperature forecast. The new method is tested for two case studies (one during summer 2013, one during winter 2013), and compared to the performance of the current alert system. Conclusions The prototype shows some clear improvements over the current alert system. It allows for a much greater degree of flexibility, provides more detailed regional information about the health risks associated with periods of extreme temperatures, and is more coherent with other weather alerts which may make it easier for front line responders to use. It will require validation and engagement with stakeholders before it can be considered for use.

The Birmingham Urban Climate Laboratory: an open meteorological test bed and challenges of the smart city

Existing urban meteorological networks have an important role to play as test beds for inexpensive and more sustainable measurement techniques that are now becoming possible in our increasingly smart cities. The Birmingham Urban Climate Laboratory (BUCL) is a near-real-time, high-resolution urban meteorological network (UMN) of automatic weather stations and inexpensive, nonstandard air temperature sensors. The network has recently been implemented with an initial focus on monitoring urban heat, infrastructure, and health applications. A number of UMNs exist worldwide; however, BUCL is novel in its density, the low-cost nature of the sensors, and the use of proprietary Wi-Fi networks. This paper provides an overview of the logistical aspects of implementing a UMN test bed at such a density, including selecting appropriate urban sites; testing and calibrating low-cost, nonstandard equipment; implementing strict quality-assurance/quality-control mechanisms (including metadata); and utilizing preexisting Wi-Fi networks to transmit data. Also included are visualizations of data collected by the network, including data from the July 2013 U.K. heatwave as well as highlighting potential applications. The paper is an open invitation to use the facility as a test bed for evaluating models and/or other nonstandard observation techniques such as those generated via crowdsourcing techniques.

The heatwaves in Switzerland in summer 1947

In 1947, Switzerland was affected by a heat period of large spatial and temporal extent and rare occurrence. The heatwaves of 1947 can be compared with the events of 2003 in terms of intensity and duration. The summer of 1947 is studied based on the analysis of MeteoSwiss station data as well as the “Twentieth Century Reanalysis” (20CR) data set. Heatwaves were defined as six consecutive exceedances of the local 90th percentile of temperature. Five different heatwaves were identified which struck Switzerland during the summer of 1947. The most intense heatwave event is analysed in more detail. The meteorological situation was characterized by a high-pressure bridge over Central Europe. Based on a comparison with literature and with observations, the applicability of the 20CR dataset for the meteorological analysis of heatwave events could be demonstrated. The representation of the heat period in summer 1947 in 20CR is satisfactory when compared with station data, albeit with a temperature bias due to differences in topography. Hence, heatwaves cannot be defined using an absolute threshold. We conclude that 20CR is applicable for an overview of the meteorological patterns characterizing a heat wave but may not reproduce local details.

Analysis of heat-related phenomena and their interactions at different spatio-temporal scales

This thesis analyzes the impact of heat extremes in urban and rural environments, considering processes related to severely high temperatures and unusual dryness. The first part deals with the influence of large-scale heatwave events on the local-scale urban heat island (UHI) effect. The temperatures recorded over a 20-year summer period by meteorological stations in 37 European cities are examined to evaluate the variations of UHI during heatwaves with respect to non-heatwave days. A statistical analysis reveals a negligible impact of large-scale extreme temperatures on the local daytime urban climate, while a notable exacerbation of UHI effect at night. A comparison with the UrbClim model outputs confirms the UHI strengthening during heatwave episodes, with an intensity independent of the climate zone. The investigation of the relationship between large-scale temperature anomalies and UHI highlights a smooth and continuous dependence, but with a strong variability. The lack of a threshold behavior in this relationship suggests that large-scale temperature variability can affect the local-scale UHI even in different conditions than during extreme events. The second part examines the transition from meteorological to agricultural drought, being the first stage of the drought propagation process. A multi-year reanalysis dataset involving numerous drought events over the Iberian Peninsula is considered. The behavior of different non-parametric standardized drought indices in drought detection is evaluated. A statistical approach based on run theory is employed, analyzing the main characteristics of drought propagation. The propagation from meteorological to agricultural drought events is found to develop in about 1-2 months. The duration of agricultural drought appears shorter than that of meteorological drought, but the onset is delayed. The propagation probability increases with the severity of the originating meteorological drought. A new combined agricultural drought index is developed to be a useful tool for balancing the characteristics of other adopted indices.