Lives of twelve good men ...

Martin Joseph Routh.--Hugh James Rose.--Charles Marriott.--Edward Hawkins.--Samuel Wilberforce.--Richard Lynch Cotton.-Richard Greswell.--Henry Octavius Coxe.--Henry Longueville Mansel.--William Jacobson.--Charles Page Eden.--Charles Longuet Higgins.

Lives of twelve good men ...

Martin Joseph Routh.--Hugh James Rose.--Charles Marriott.--Edward Hawkins.--Samuel Wilberforce.--Richard Lynch Cotton.--Richard Greswell.--Henry Octavius Coxe.--Henry Longueville Mansel.--William Jacobson.--Charles Page Eden.--Charles Longuet Higgins.

Decadal predictability of the Atlantic Ocean in a coupled GCM: forecast skill and optimal perturbations using Linear Inverse Modelling

The decadal predictability of three-dimensional Atlantic Ocean anomalies is examined in a coupled global climate model (HadCM3) using a Linear Inverse Modelling (LIM) approach. It is found that the evolution of temperature and salinity in the Atlantic, and the strength of the meridional overturning circulation (MOC), can be effectively described by a linear dynamical system forced by white noise. The forecasts produced using this linear model are more skillful than other reference forecasts for several decades. Furthermore, significant non-normal amplification is found under several different norms. The regions from which this growth occurs are found to be fairly shallow and located in the far North Atlantic. Initially, anomalies in the Nordic Seas impact the MOC, and the anomalies then grow to fill the entire Atlantic basin, especially at depth, over one to three decades. It is found that the structure of the optimal initial condition for amplification is sensitive to the norm employed, but the initial growth seems to be dominated by MOC-related basin scale changes, irrespective of the choice of norm. The consistent identification of the far North Atlantic as the most sensitive region for small perturbations suggests that additional observations in this region would be optimal for constraining decadal climate predictions.

The potential to narrow uncertainty in regional climate predictions

Faced by the realities of a changing climate, decision makers in a wide variety of organisations are increasingly seeking quantitative predictions of regional and local climate. An important issue for these decision makers, and for organisations that fund climate research, is what is the potential for climate science to deliver improvements - especially reductions in uncertainty - in such predictions? Uncertainty in climate predictions arises from three distinct sources: internal variability, model uncertainty and scenario uncertainty. Using data from a suite of climate models we separate and quantify these sources. For predictions of changes in surface air temperature on decadal timescales and regional spatial scales, we show that uncertainty for the next few decades is dominated by sources (model uncertainty and internal variability) that are potentially reducible through progress in climate science. Furthermore, we find that model uncertainty is of greater importance than internal variability. Our findings have implications for managing adaptation to a changing climate. Because the costs of adaptation are very large, and greater uncertainty about future climate is likely to be associated with more expensive adaptation, reducing uncertainty in climate predictions is potentially of enormous economic value. We highlight the need for much more work to compare: a) the cost of various degrees of adaptation, given current levels of uncertainty; and b) the cost of new investments in climate science to reduce current levels of uncertainty. Our study also highlights the importance of targeting climate science investments on the most promising opportunities to reduce prediction uncertainty.

The potential to narrow uncertainty in projections of stratospheric ozone over the 21st century

Future stratospheric ozone concentrations will be determined both by changes in the concentration of ozone depleting substances (ODSs) and by changes in stratospheric and tropospheric climate, including those caused by changes in anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs). Since future economic development pathways and resultant emissions of GHGs are uncertain, anthropogenic climate change could be a significant source of uncertainty for future projections of stratospheric ozone. In this pilot study, using an "ensemble of opportunity" of chemistry-climate model (CCM) simulations, the contribution of scenario uncertainty from different plausible emissions pathways for ODSs and GHGs to future ozone projections is quantified relative to the contribution from model uncertainty and internal variability of the chemistry-climate system. For both the global, annual mean ozone concentration and for ozone in specific geographical regions, differences between CCMs are the dominant source of uncertainty for the first two-thirds of the 21st century, up-to and after the time when ozone concentrations return to 1980 values. In the last third of the 21st century, dependent upon the set of greenhouse gas scenarios used, scenario uncertainty can be the dominant contributor. This result suggests that investment in chemistry-climate modelling is likely to continue to refine projections of stratospheric ozone and estimates of the return of stratospheric ozone concentrations to pre-1980 levels.

Estimating climatically relevant singular vectors for decadal predictions of the Atlantic Ocean

A key aspect in designing an ecient decadal prediction system is ensuring that the uncertainty in the ocean initial conditions is sampled optimally. Here, we consider one strategy to address this issue by investigating the growth of optimal perturbations in the HadCM3 global climate model (GCM). More specically, climatically relevant singular vectors (CSVs) - the small perturbations which grow most rapidly for a specic initial condition - are estimated for decadal timescales in the Atlantic Ocean. It is found that reliable CSVs can be estimated by running a large ensemble of integrations of the GCM. Amplication of the optimal perturbations occurs for more than 10 years, and possibly up to 40 years. The identi ed regions for growing perturbations are found to be in the far North Atlantic, and these perturbations cause amplication through an anomalous meridional overturning circulation response. Additionally, this type of analysis potentially informs the design of future ocean observing systems by identifying the sensitive regions where small uncertainties in the ocean state can grow maximally. Although these CSVs are expensive to compute, we identify ways in which the process could be made more ecient in the future.

Swahili exercises. Compiled for the Universities' mission to Central Africa,

Mode of access: Internet.

A tract upon tomb-stones; or Suggestions for the consideration of persons intending to set up that kind of monument to the memory of deceased friends.

Author's name on cover.

Christian offices for the use of families and individuals, compiled from the liturgy of the Protestant Episcopal Church, and from the devotional writings of various authors, together with a calendar.

Mode of access: Internet.

Address to the veterans of the Mexican war. Embodying a historical contrast of the two great political parties of the United States on vital issues, with personal reminiscences and other pertinent episodes. Also: an appendix of three chapters, entitled "The California democratic state club pilloried."--"A new plundercrat organ disguised in the garb of democracy."--"To the greenback-labor voters."

Mode of access: Internet.

Constitutional principles of the Christian church.

Mode of access: Internet.

Dr. Foote's handbuch der gesundheitswinke und hausrezepte ...

Mode of access: Internet.

Review of the Rev. Jared Sparks' letters on the Protestant Episcopal Church : in reply to the Rev. Dr. Wyatt's sermon.

"(From the 'Christian Disciple,' published at Boston.)"

Letters on the ministry, ritual, and doctrines of the Protestant Episcopal Church : addressed to the Rev. Wm. E. Wyatt ... in reply to a sermon exhibiting some of the principal doctrines of the Protestant Episcopal Church in the United States /

Title on spine: Sparks' letters on Episcopacy.