The use of the likelihood ratio for evaluative and investigative purposes in comparative forensic handwriting examination

This paper extends previous research and discussion on the use of multivariate continuous data, which are about to become more prevalent in forensic science. As an illustrative example, attention is drawn here on the area of comparative handwriting examinations. Multivariate continuous data can be obtained in this field by analysing the contour shape of loop characters through Fourier analysis. This methodology, based on existing research in this area, allows one describe in detail the morphology of character contours throughout a set of variables. This paper uses data collected from female and male writers to conduct a comparative analysis of likelihood ratio based evidence assessment procedures in both, evaluative and investigative proceedings. While the use of likelihood ratios in the former situation is now rather well established (typically, in order to discriminate between propositions of authorship of a given individual versus another, unknown individual), focus on the investigative setting still remains rather beyond considerations in practice. This paper seeks to highlight that investigative settings, too, can represent an area of application for which the likelihood ratio can offer a logical support. As an example, the inference of gender of the writer of an incriminated handwritten text is forwarded, analysed and discussed in this paper. The more general viewpoint according to which likelihood ratio analyses can be helpful for investigative proceedings is supported here through various simulations. These offer a characterisation of the robustness of the proposed likelihood ratio methodology.

Statistical evaluation of the influence of writing postures on on-line signatures. Study of the impact of time.

The aim of this study is to investigate the influence of unusual writing positions on a person's signature, in comparison to a standard writing position. Ten writers were asked to sign their signature six times, in each of four different writing positions, including the standard one. In order to take into consideration the effect of the day-to-day variation, this same process was repeated over 12 sessions, giving a total of 288 signatures per subject. The signatures were collected simultaneously in an off-line and on-line acquisition mode, using an interactive tablet and a ballpoint pen. Unidimensional variables (height to width ratio; time with or without in air displacement) and time-dependent variables (pressure; X and Y coordinates; altitude and azimuth angles) were extracted from each signature. For the unidimensional variables, the position effect was assessed through ANOVA and Dunnett contrast tests. Concerning the time-dependent variables, the signatures were compared by using dynamic time warping, and the position effect was evaluated through classification by linear discriminant analysis. Both of these variables provided similar results: no general tendency regarding the position factor could be highlighted. The influence of the position factor varies according to the subject as well as the variable studied. The impact of the session factor was shown to cover the impact that could be ascribed to the writing position factor. Indeed, the day-to-day variation has a greater effect than the position factor on the studied signature variables. The results of this study suggest guidelines for best practice in the area of signature comparisons and demonstrate the importance of a signature collection procedure covering an adequate number of sampling sessions, with a sufficient number of samples per session.

Learning about Bayesian networks for forensic interpretation : An example based on the "the problem of multiple propositions"

Both, Bayesian networks and probabilistic evaluation are gaining more and more widespread use within many professional branches, including forensic science. Notwithstanding, they constitute subtle topics with definitional details that require careful study. While many sophisticated developments of probabilistic approaches to evaluation of forensic findings may readily be found in published literature, there remains a gap with respect to writings that focus on foundational aspects and on how these may be acquired by interested scientists new to these topics. This paper takes this as a starting point to report on the learning about Bayesian networks for likelihood ratio based, probabilistic inference procedures in a class of master students in forensic science. The presentation uses an example that relies on a casework scenario drawn from published literature, involving a questioned signature. A complicating aspect of that case study - proposed to students in a teaching scenario - is due to the need of considering multiple competing propositions, which is an outset that may not readily be approached within a likelihood ratio based framework without drawing attention to some additional technical details. Using generic Bayesian networks fragments from existing literature on the topic, course participants were able to track the probabilistic underpinnings of the proposed scenario correctly both in terms of likelihood ratios and of posterior probabilities. In addition, further study of the example by students allowed them to derive an alternative Bayesian network structure with a computational output that is equivalent to existing probabilistic solutions. This practical experience underlines the potential of Bayesian networks to support and clarify foundational principles of probabilistic procedures for forensic evaluation.

Effects of Different Postural Conditions on Handwriting Variability

During their career, forensic document examiners will inevitably be confronted with handwriting carried out under unusual conditions (UnC). A questioned document signed on top of a car or on a vertical surface like a wall are two examples. These atypical circumstances may give rise to more variability of the signatures or written words, in particular if the body was in non-traditional writing position without the traditional support. Few studies were devoted to handwriting variability under unusual writing conditions. The current study investigates whether individual variability changes with special writing conditions. In a previous study (Sciacca & al, 2009), we found that eight repetitions were sufficient to obtain a correct estimation of the variance. In the present study, twelve subjects were asked to write two word sets eight times in upper and eight times in lower case, under different conditions : sitting and writing on a horizontal (usual condition UC) or vertical support; and standing, kneeling or laying while writing on a horizontal or vertical support (unusual conditions UnC). Words were written on a pen tablet, normalized in space and time and then averaged. The variance of the eight words was measured under all conditions. Results showed only an increase in variability under the laying and kneeling / vertical UnC. Within the five other postural conditions tested, handwriting was shown to be very stable.

Quantitative Assessment of Handwriting Evidence: The Value of the Shape of the Letter "A"

To provide a quantitative support to the handwriting evidence evaluation, a new method was developed through the computation of a likelihood ratio based on a Bayesian approach. In the present paper, the methodology is briefly described and applied to data collected within a simulated case of a threatening letter. Fourier descriptors are used to characterise the shape of loops of handwritten characters "a" of the true writer of the threatening letter, and: 1) with reference characters "a" of the true writer of the threatening letter, and then 2) with characters "a" of a writer who did not write the threatening letter. The findings support that the probabilistic methodology correctly supports either the hypothesis of authorship or the alternative hypothesis. Further developments will enable the handwriting examiner to use this methodology as a helpful assistance to assess the strength of evidence in handwriting casework.

Handwriting and pre-frailty in the Lausanne cohort 65+ (Lc65+) study

BACKGROUND: Frailty is detected by weight loss, weakness, slow walking velocity, reduced physical activity or poor endurance/exhaustion. Handwriting has not been examined in the context of frailty, despite its functional importance. OBJECTIVE: Our goal was to examine quantitative handwriting measures in people meeting 0, 1, and 2 or more (2+) frailty criteria. We also examined if handwriting parameters were associated with gait performance, weakness, poor endurance/exhaustion and cognitive impairment. METHODS: From the population-based Lc65+, 72 subjects meeting 2+ frailty criteria with complete handwriting samples were identified. Gender-matched controls meeting 1 criterion or no criteria were identified. Cognitive impairment was defined by a Mini-Mental State Examination score of 25 or less or the lowest 20th percentile of Trail Making Test Part B. Handwriting was recorded using a writing tablet and measures of velocity, pauses, and pressure were extracted. RESULTS: Subjects with 2+ criteria were older, had more health problems and need for assistance but had higher education. No handwriting parameter differed between frailty groups (age and education adjusted). Writing velocity was not significantly slower among participants from the slowest 20th percentile of gait velocity but writing pressure was significantly lower among those from the lowest 20th percentile of grip strength. Poor endurance/exhaustion was not associated with handwriting measures. Low cognitive performance was related to longer pauses. CONCLUSIONS: Handwriting parameters might be associated with specific aspects of the frailty phenotype, but not reliably with global definitions of frailty at its earliest stages among subjects able to perform handwriting tests.

Effect of sugarcane harvesting systems on soil carbon stocks in Brazil: an examination of existing data

Agricultural management practices that promote net carbon (C) accumulation in the soil have been considered as an important potential mitigation option to combat global warming. The change in the sugarcane harvesting system, to one which incorporates C into the soil from crop residues, is the focus of this work. The main objective was to assess and discuss the changes in soil organic C stocks caused by the conversion of burnt to unburnt sugarcane harvesting systems in Brazil, when considering the main soils and climates associated with this crop. For this purpose, a dataset was obtained from a literature review of soils under sugarcane in Brazil. Although not necessarily from experimental studies, only paired comparisons were examined, and for each site the dominant soil type, topography and climate were similar. The results show a mean annual C accumulation rate of 1.5 Mg ha-1 year-1 for the surface to 30-cm depth (0.73 and 2.04 Mg ha-1 year-1 for sandy and clay soils, respectively) caused by the conversion from a burnt to an unburnt sugarcane harvesting system. The findings suggest that soil should be included in future studies related to life cycle assessment and C footprint of Brazilian sugarcane ethanol.

Re-examination of the anion derivatives of isoflavones by radical fragmentation in negative electrospray ionization tandem mass spectrometry: experimental and computational studies

This paper reports theoretical and experimental studies of gas-phase fragmentation reactions of four naturally occurring isoflavones. The samples were analyzed in negative ion mode by direct infusion in ESI-QqQ, ESI-QqTOF and ESI-Orbitrap systems. The MS/MS and MS(n) spectra are in agreement with the fragmentation proposals and high-resolution analyses have confirmed the formulae for each ion observed. As expected, compounds with methoxyl aromatic substitution have showed a radical elimination of center dot CH(3) as the main fragmentation pathway. A second radical loss (center dot H) occurs as previously observed for compounds which exhibit a previous homolytic center dot CH(3) cleavage (radical anion) and involves radical resonance to stabilize the anion formed. However, in this study we suggest another mechanism for the formation of the main ions, on the basis of the enthalpies for each species. Compounds without methoxy substituent dissociate at the highest energies and exhibit the deprotonated molecule as the most intense ion. Finally, energy-resolved experiments were carried out to give more details about the gas-phase dissociation reaction of the isoflavones and the results are in agreement with the theoretical approaches. Copyright (C) 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Examination into the accuracy of exchangeable cation measurement in saline soils

Despite the increasing prevalence of salinity world-wide, the measurement of exchangeable cation concentrations in saline soils remains problematic. Two soil types (Mollisol and Vertisol) were equilibrated with a range of sodium adsorption ratio (SAR) solutions at various ionic strengths. The concentrations of exchangeable cations were then determined using several different types of methods, and the measured exchangeable cation concentrations compared to reference values. At low ionic strength (low salinity), the concentration of exchangeable cations can be accurately estimated from the total soil extractable cations. In saline soils, however, the presence of soluble salts in the soil solution precludes the use of this method. Leaching of the soil with a pre-wash solution (such as alcohol) was found to effectively remove the soluble salts from the soil, thus allowing the accurate measurement of the effective cation exchange capacity (ECEC). However, the dilution associated with this pre-washing increased the exchangeable Ca concentrations while simultaneously decreasing exchangeable Na. In contrast, when calculated as the difference between the total extractable cations and the soil solution cations, good correlations were found between the calculated exchangeable cation concentrations and the reference values for both Na (Mollisol: y=0.873x and Vertisol: y=0.960x) and Ca (Mollisol: y=0.901x and Vertisol: y=1.05x). Therefore, for soils with a soil solution ionic strength greater than 50 mM (electrical conductivity of 4 dS/m) (in which exchangeable cation concentrations are overestimated by the assumption they can be estimated as the total extractable cations), concentrations can be calculated as the difference between total extractable cations and soluble cations.

Experimental examination of solute transport by surface runoff from low-angle slopes

The removal of chemicals in solution, by overland flow from agricultural land has the potential to be a significant source of chemical loss from zero-till and surface mulched farming systems. The objective of this study was to determine the magnitude of solute loss by surface runoff from agricultural systems. Previous experiments have enhanced the understanding of the exchange process, but the initial soil conditions together with the tracer application method in these experiments have meant that in some cases the results have limited applicability to field situations. In this study, two different sets of experiments were carried out to determine the magnitude of solute loss by surface runoff. These experiments entailed the surface application of bromide to (1) field scale plots 18 m long by 2 m wide and (2) repacked soil cores 236 mm in diameter; followed by the application of simulated rainfall in both cases. The most substantial finding of the field experiments was that the quantities of solute in surface runoff varied greatly with soil type and structure (0.07-14.9% of the applied bromide). Also, on some soils, large quantities of tracer were measured in the surface runoff even after several hours of infiltration. The experiments on soil cores showed that soil structure plays an important role in the quantity of chemical that may be transported in the surface runoff. These field results showed that, in certain systems, solute movement by overland flow is an important transport mechanism, which should be considered when budgeting for chemical loss. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Anogenital gland secretions of Lemur catta and Propithecus verreauxi coquereli: A preliminary chemical examination

Although prosimians are greatly olfaction-oriented, little is known about the specifics of how they use scent to communicate. In this preliminary study we attempted to delineate intra- and interspecific differences among the anogenital gland secretions of two lemur species (Lemur catta and Propithecus verreauxi coquereli) using gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS). The results indicate that the two species are discernible through scent. Furthermore, we were able to identify reproductive status using this technique. The anogenital secretions of the different sexes in L. catta, though perhaps not P. v. coquereli, are chemically distinguishable. Given this information, it appears that at least some lemur species can use scent marks to determine species, sex, and reproductive status. (C) 2004 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Taxonomic re-examination of the hermit crab species Pagurus forceps and Pagurus comptus (Decapoda: Paguridae) by molecular analysis

The current taxonomy of two poorly known hermit crab species Pagurus forceps H. Milne Edwards, 1836 and Pagurus comptus White, 1847 from temperate Pacific and Atlantic coastlines of South America is based only on adult morphology. Past studies have questioned the separation of these two very similar species, which occur sympatrically. We included specimens morphologically assignable to P. forceps and P. comptus in a phylogenetic analysis, along with other selected anomuran decapods, based on 16S ribosomal gene sequences. Differences between samples putatively assigned to either P. forceps and P. comptus were moderate, with sequence similarity ranging from 98.2 to 99.4% for the fragments analyzed. Our comparison of mitochondrial DNA sequences (16S rRNA) revealed diagnostic differences between the two putative species, suggesting that P. forceps and P. comptus are indeed phylogenetically close but different species, with no genetic justification to support their synonymization. The polyphyly of Pagurus is not corroborated here among the represented Atlantic species, despite obviously complex relationships among the members of the genus.

An examination of movement kinematics in young people with high-functioning autism and Asperger's disorder: Further evidence for a motor planning deficit

This paper examines upper-body movement kinematics in individuals with high-functioning autism (HFA) and Asperger's disorder (AD). In general, the results indicate that HFA is more consistently associated with impaired motoric preparation/initiation than AD. The data further suggest that this quantitative difference in motor impairment is not necessarily underpinned by greater executive dysfunction vulnerability in autism relative to AD. Quantitative motoric dissociation between autism and AD may have down-stream effects on later stages of movement resulting in qualitative differences between these disorder groups, e.g. motor clumsiness in AD versus abnormal posturing in autism. It will be important for future research to map the developmental trajectory of motor abnormalities in these disorder groups.

Standard Examination System for Laparoscopy in Penetrating Abdominal Trauma

Background: The high missed occult small bowel injuries (SBI) associated with laparoscopy in trauma (LIT) is a major reason why some surgeons still preclude LIT today. No standardized laparoscopic examination for evaluation of the peritoneal cavity is described for trauma. The objective of this article is to verify if a systematic standardized laparoscopic approach could correctly identify SBI in the peritoneal cavity for penetrating abdominal trauma (PAT). Methods: Victims with PAT were evaluated in a prospective, nonrandomized study. A total of 75 hemodynamically stable patients with suspected abdominal injuries were operated by LIT and converted to laparotomy if criteria were met: SBI and lesions to blind spot zones-retroperitoneal hematoma, injuries to segments VI or VII of the liver, or injuries to the posterior area of the spleen. Inclusion criteria were equivocal evidence of abdominal injuries or peritonea] penetration; systolic blood pressure >90 mm Hg and <3 L of IV fluids in the first hour of admission; Glasgow Coma Scale score >12; and age >12 years. Exclusion criteria were back injuries; pregnancy; previous laparotomy; and chronic cardiorespiratory disease. Results: Sixty patients were males and there were 38 stab wounds and 37 gunshot wounds. No SBI was missed, but a pancreatic lesion was undiagnosed due to a retroperitoneal hematoma. Twenty patients (26.6%) were converted. Unnecessary laparotomies were avoided in 73.33%. Therapeutic LIT was possible in 22.7%. Accuracy was 98.66% with 97.61% sensitivity and 100% specificity. Conclusions: Standard systematic laparoscopic exploration was 100% effective to detect SBI in the peritoneal cavity. Conversion from LIT to laparotomy should be done if injuries to blind spot zones are found which are poorly evaluated by LIT. Therapeutic LIT is feasible in PAT.