Local Hadley circulation over the Asian monsoon region associated with the Tropospheric Biennial Oscillation

The Tropospheric Biennial Oscillation (TBO), a major interannual variation phenomenon in the Indo-Pacific region, is the result of strong ocean-atmosphere coupling over the Asian-Australian monsoon area. Along with other meteorological and oceanographic parameters, the tropical circulation also exhibits interannual oscillations. Even though the TBO is the result of strong air–sea interaction, the circulation cells during TBO years are, as yet, not well understood. In the present study, an attempt has been made to understand the interannual variability of the mean meridional circulation and local monsoon circulation over south Asia in connection with the TBO. The stream function computed from the zonal mean meridional wind component of NCEP=NCAR reanalysis data for the years 1950–2003 is used to represent the meanmeridional circulation. Mean meridional mass transport in the topics reverses from a weak monsoon to a strong monsoon in the presence of ENSO, but in normal TBO yearsmean transport remains weak across the Northern Hemisphere. The meridional temperature gradient, which drives the mean meridional circulation, also shows no reversal during the normal TBO cycle. The local Hadley circulation over the monsoon area follows the TBO cycle with anomalous ascent (descent) in strong (weak) monsoon years. During normal TBO years, the Equatorial region and Indian monsoon areas exhibit opposite local Hadley circulation anomalies

Diagnostic analysis of atmospheric moisture and clear-sky radiative feedback in the Hadley Centre and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) climate models

The interannual variability of the hydrological cycle is diagnosed from the Hadley Centre and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) climate models, both of which are forced by observed sea surface temperatures. The models produce a similar sensitivity of clear-sky outgoing longwave radiation to surface temperature of ∼2 W m−2 K−1, indicating a consistent and positive clear-sky radiative feedback. However, differences between changes in the temperature lapse-rate and the height dependence of moisture fluctuations suggest that contrasting mechanisms bring about this result. The GFDL model appears to give a weaker water vapor feedback (i.e., changes in specific humidity). This is counteracted by a smaller upper tropospheric temperature response to surface warming, which implies a compensating positive lapse-rate feedback.

Convectively coupled equatorial waves in high resolution Hadley centre climate models

Current global atmospheric models fail to simulate well organised tropical phenomena in which convection interacts with dynamics and physics. A new methodology to identify convectively coupled equatorial waves, developed by NCAS-Climate, has been applied to output from the two latest models of the Met Office/Hadley Centre which have fundamental differences in dynamical formulation. Variability, horizontal and vertical structures, and propagation characteristics of tropical convection and equatorial waves, along with their coupled behaviour in the models are examined and evaluated against a previous comprehensive study of observations. It is shown that, in general, the models perform well for equatorial waves coupled with off-equatorial convection. However they perform poorly for waves coupled with equatorial convection. The vertical structure of the simulated wave is not conducive to energy conversion/growth and does not support the correct physical-dynamical coupling that occurs in the real world. The following figure shows an example of the Kelvin wave coupled with equatorial convection. It shows that the models fail to simulate a key feature of convectively coupled Kelvin wave in observations, namely near surface anomalous equatorial zonal winds together with intensified equatorial convection and westerly winds in phase with the convection. The models are also not able to capture the observed vertical tilt structure and the vertical propagation of the Kelvin wave into the lower stratosphere as well as the secondary peak in the mid-troposphere, particularly in HadAM3. These results can be used to provide a test-bed for experimentation to improve the coupling of physics and dynamics in climate and weather models.

Using idealized snow forcing to test teleconnections with the Indian summer monsoon in the Hadley Centre GCM

Anomalous heavy snow during winter or spring has long been regarded as a possible precursor of deficient Indian monsoon rainfall during the subsequent summer. However previous work in this field is inconclusive, in terms of the mechanism that communicates snow anomalies to the monsoon summer, and even the region from which snow has the most impact. In this study we explore these issues in coupled and atmosphere-only versions of the Hadley Centre model. A 1050-year control integration of the HadCM3 coupled model, which well represents the seasonal cycle of snow cover over the Eurasian continent, is analysed and shows evidence for weakened monsoons being preceded by strong snow forcing (in the absence of ENSO) over either the Himalaya/Tibetan Plateau or north/west Eurasia regions. However, empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of springtime interannual variability in snow depth shows the leading mode to have opposite signs between these two regions, suggesting that competing mechanisms may be possible. To determine the dominant region, ensemble integrations are carried out using HadAM3, the atmospheric component of HadCM3, and a variety of anomalous snow forcing initial conditions obtained from the control integration of the coupled model. Forcings are applied during spring in separate experiments over the Himalaya/Tibetan Plateau and north/west Eurasia regions, in conjunction with climatological SSTs in order to avoid the direct effects of ENSO. With the aid of idealized forcing conditions in sensitivity tests, we demonstrate that forcing from the Himalaya region is dominant in this model via a Blanford-type mechanism involving reduced surface sensible heat and longwave fluxes, reduced heating of the troposphere over the Tibetan Plateau and consequently a reduced meridional tropospheric temperature gradient which weakens the monsoon during early summer. Snow albedo is shown to be key to the mechanism, explaining around 50% of the perturbation in sensible heating over the Tibetan Plateau, and accounting for the majority of cooling through the troposphere.

The physical properties of the atmosphere in the new Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model (HadGEM1). Part II: Aspects of variability and regional climate

The performance of the atmospheric component of the new Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model (HadGEM1) is assessed in terms of its ability to represent a selection of key aspects of variability in the Tropics and extratropics. These include midlatitude storm tracks and blocking activity, synoptic variability over Europe, and the North Atlantic Oscillation together with tropical convection, the Madden-Julian oscillation, and the Asian summer monsoon. Comparisons with the previous model, the Third Hadley Centre Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere GCM (HadCM3), demonstrate that there has been a considerable increase in the transient eddy kinetic energy (EKE), bringing HadGEM1 into closer agreement with current reanalyses. This increase in EKE results from the increased horizontal resolution and, in combination with the improved physical parameterizations, leads to improvements in the representation of Northern Hemisphere storm tracks and blocking. The simulation of synoptic weather regimes over Europe is also greatly improved compared to HadCM3, again due to both increased resolution and other model developments. The variability of convection in the equatorial region is generally stronger and closer to observations than in HadCM3. There is, however, still limited convective variance coincident with several of the observed equatorial wave modes. Simulation of the Madden-Julian oscillation is improved in HadGEM1: both the activity and interannual variability are increased and the eastward propagation, although slower than observed, is much better simulated. While some aspects of the climatology of the Asian summer monsoon are improved in HadGEM1, the upper-level winds are too weak and the simulation of precipitation deteriorates. The dominant modes of monsoon interannual variability are similar in the two models, although in HadCM3 this is linked to SST forcing, while in HadGEM1 internal variability dominates. Overall, analysis of the phenomena considered here indicates that HadGEM1 performs well and, in many important respects, improves upon HadCM3. Together with the improved representation of the mean climate, this improvement in the simulation of atmospheric variability suggests that HadGEM1 provides a sound basis for future studies of climate and climate change.

Understanding projections of sea level rise in a Hadley Centre coupled climate model

Sea level changes resulting from CO2-induced climate changes in ocean density and circulation have been investigated in a series of idealised experiments with the Hadley Centre HadCM3 AOGCM. Changes in the mass of the ocean were not included. In the global mean, salinity changes have a negligible effect compared with the thermal expansion of the ocean. Regionally, sea level changes are projected to deviate greatly from the global mean (standard deviation is 40% of the mean). Changes in surface fluxes of heat, freshwater and wind stress are all found to produce significant and distinct regional sea level changes, wind stress changes being the most important and the cause of several pronounced local features, while heat and freshwater flux changes affect large parts of the North Atlantic and Southern Ocean. Regional change is related mainly to density changes, with a relatively small contribution in mid and high latitudes from change in the barotropic circulation. Regional density change has an important contribution from redistribution of ocean heat content. In general, unlike in the global mean, the regional pattern of sea level change due to density change appears to be influenced almost as much by salinity changes as by temperature changes, often in opposition. Such compensation is particularly marked in the North Atlantic, where it is consistent with recent observed changes. We suggest that density compensation is not a property of climate change specifically, but a general behavior of the ocean.

The climate response to CO2 of the Hadley Centre coupled AOGCM with and without flux adjustment

Coupled atmosphere‐ocean general circulation models have a tendency to drift away from a realistic climatology. The modelled climate response to an increase of CO2 concentration may be incorrect if the simulation of the current climate has significant errors, so in many models, including ours, the drift is counteracted by applying prescribed fluxes of heat and fresh water at the ocean‐atmosphere interface in addition to the calculated surface exchanges. Since the additional fluxes do not have a physical basis, the use of this technique of “flux adjustment” itself introduces some uncertainty in the simulated response to increased CO2. We find that the global‐average temperature response of our model to CO2 increasing at 1% per year is about 30% less without flux adjustment than with flux adjustment. The geographical patterns of the response are similar, indicating that flux adjustment is not causing any gross distortion. The reduced size of the response is due to more effective vertical transport of heat into the ocean, and a somewhat smaller climate sensitivity. Although the response in both cases lies within the generally accepted range for the climate sensitivity, systematic uncertainties of this size are clearly undesirable, and the best strategy for future development is to improve the climate model in order to reduce the need for flux adjustment.