Extinction risk in cloud forest fragments under climate change and habitat loss

Aim: To quantify the consequences of major threats to biodiversity, such as climate and land-use change, it is important to use explicit measures of species persistence, such as extinction risk. The extinction risk of metapopulations can be approximated through simple models, providing a regional snapshot of the extinction probability of a species. We evaluated the extinction risk of three species under different climate change scenarios in three different regions of the Mexican cloud forest, a highly fragmented habitat that is particularly vulnerable to climate change. Location: Cloud forests in Mexico. Methods: Using Maxent, we estimated the potential distribution of cloud forest for three different time horizons (2030, 2050 and 2080) and their overlap with protected areas. Then, we calculated the extinction risk of three contrasting vertebrate species for two scenarios: (1) climate change only (all suitable areas of cloud forest through time) and (2) climate and land-use change (only suitable areas within a currently protected area), using an explicit patch-occupancy approximation model and calculating the joint probability of all populations becoming extinct when the number of remaining patches was less than five. Results: Our results show that the extent of environmentally suitable areas for cloud forest in Mexico will sharply decline in the next 70 years. We discovered that if all habitat outside protected areas is transformed, then only species with small area requirements are likely to persist. With habitat loss through climate change only, high dispersal rates are sufficient for persistence, but this requires protection of all remaining cloud forest areas. Main conclusions: Even if high dispersal rates mitigate the extinction risk of species due to climate change, the synergistic impacts of changing climate and land use further threaten the persistence of species with higher area requirements. Our approach for assessing the impacts of threats on biodiversity is particularly useful when there is little time or data for detailed population viability analyses. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Effect of fragmentation, habitat loss and within-patch habitat characteristics on ant assemblages in semi-arid woodlands of eastern Australia.

The reliability of ants as bioindicators of ecosystem condition is dependent on the consistency of their response to localised habitat characteristics, which may be modified by larger-scale effects of habitat fragmentation and loss. We assessed the relative contribution of habitat fragmentation, habitat loss and within-patch habitat characteristics in determining ant assemblages in semi-arid woodland in Queensland, Australia. Species and functional group abundance were recorded using pitfall traps across 20 woodland patches in landscapes that exhibited a range of fragmentation states. Of fragmentation measures, changes in patch area and patch edge contrast exerted the greatest influence on species assemblages, after accounting for differences in habitat loss. However, 35% of fragmentation effects on species were confounded by the effects of habitat characteristics and habitat loss. Within-patch habitat characteristics explained more than twice the amount of species variation attributable to fragmentation and four times the variation explained by habitat loss. The study indicates that within-patch habitat characteristics are the predominant drivers of ant composition. We suggest that caution should be exercised in interpreting the independent effects of habitat fragmentation and loss on ant assemblages without jointly considering localised habitat attributes and associated joint effects.

Dispersal capacity and diet breadth modify the response of wild bees to habitat loss

Habitat loss poses a major threat to biodiversity, and species-specific extinction risks are inextricably linked to life-history characteristics. This relationship is still poorly documented for many functionally important taxa, and at larger continental scales. With data from five replicated field studies from three countries, we examined how species richness of wild bees varies with habitat patch size. We hypothesized that the form of this relationship is affected by body size, degree of host plant specialization and sociality. Across all species, we found a positive species–area slope (z ¼ 0.19), and species traits modified this relationship. Large-bodied generalists had a lower z value than small generalists. Contrary to predictions, small specialists had similar or slightly lower z value compared with large specialists, and small generalists also tended to be more strongly affected by habitat loss as compared with small specialists. Social bees were negatively affected by habitat loss (z ¼ 0.11) irrespective of body size. We conclude that habitat loss leads to clear shifts in the species composition of wild bee communities.

Ticks (Acari: Ixodidae) on Wild Marsh-Deer (Blastocerus dichotomus) from Southeast Brazil: Infestations before and after Habitat Loss

The lake from Porto-Primavera hydroelectric power station inundated an area of 2,200 km2 at the border of São Paulo and Mato-Grosso do Sul States, Brazil. Infestations by ticks were evaluated on 135 marsh deer, Blastocerus dichotomus (Illiger), captured before and after inundation. Ticks were collected for identification, and infestation level of animals was assessed by scoring. Deer were divided into four groups according to capture location and temporal relation to the inundation. Groups 1, 2, and 3 were captured before inundation. Group 4 was captured after inundation. Four tick species were found: Amblyomma cajennense (F.), Amblyomma triste Koch, Anocentor nitens (Neumann), and Boophilus microplus (Canestrini). Groups 1, 2, 3, and 4 had 30, 45, 100, and 96%, respectively, of animals carrying B. microplus ticks. A. triste was observed on 16, 22, 22, and 88% of animals from groups 1,2,3, and 4, respectively. A. nitens and A. cajennense were observed only on group 4, on 32 and 16% of the animals, respectively. Groups 1 and 2 had only 4.8 and 6.1% of animals with high infestation levels, respectively, and no ticks on 46.8% and 45.5% of the animals, respectively. Conversely, groups 3 and 4 lacked noninfested animals and had high infestation levels on 77.8 and 50% of deer, respectively. Marsh area shrinkage was blamed for higher infestation levels on deer from groups 3 and 4. The widespread presence of A. triste on marsh deer, a Neotropical tick species, raises the possibility of a natural host-parasite relationship.

Genetic resource impacts of habitat loss and degradation; reconciling empirical evidence and predicted theory for neotropical trees

The theoretical impacts of anthropogenic habitat degradation on genetic resources have been well articulated. Here we use a simulation approach to assess the magnitude of expected genetic change, and review 31 studies of 23 neotropical tree species to assess whether empirical case studies conform to theory. Major differences in the sensitivity of measures to detect the genetic health of degraded populations were obvious. Most studies employing genetic diversity (nine out of 13) found no significant consequences, yet most that assessed progeny inbreeding (six out of eight), reproductive output (seven out of 10) and fitness (all six) highlighted significant impacts. These observations are in line with theory, where inbreeding is observed immediately following impact, but genetic diversity is lost slowly over subsequent generations, which for trees may take decades. Studies also highlight the ecological, not just genetic, consequences of habitat degradation that can cause reduced seed set and progeny fitness. Unexpectedly, two studies examining pollen flow using paternity analysis highlight an extensive network of gene flow at smaller spatial scales (less than 10 km). Gene flow can thus mitigate against loss of genetic diversity and assist in long-term population viability, even in degraded landscapes. Unfortunately, the surveyed studies were too few and heterogeneous to examine concepts of population size thresholds and genetic resilience in relation to life history. Future suggested research priorities include undertaking integrated studies on a range of species in the same landscapes; better documentation of the extent and duration of impact; and most importantly, combining neutral marker, pollination dynamics, ecological consequences, and progeny fitness assessment within single studies.

How population loss through habitat boundaries determines the dynamics of a predator-prey system

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Homogeneous habitat can meet the discrete and varied resource requirements of hares but may set an ecological trap

In common with other farmland species, hares (Lepus spp.) are in widespread decline in agricultural landscapes due to agricultural intensification and habitat loss. We examined the importance of habitat heterogeneity to the Irish hare (Lepus timidus hibernicus) in a pastoral landscape. We used radio-tracking during nocturnal active and diurnal inactive periods throughout one year. In autumn, winter and spring, hares occupied a heterogeneous combination of improved grassland, providing food, and Juncus-dominated rough pasture, providing refuge. In summer, hares significantly increased their use of improved grassland. This homogeneous habitat can fulfil the discrete and varied resource requirements of hares for feeding and shelter at certain times of year. However, improved grassland may be a risky habitat for hares as silage harvesting occurs during their peak birthing period of late spring and early summer. We therefore posit the existence of a putative ecological trap inherent to a homogeneous habitat of perceived high value that satisfies the hares' habitat requirements but which presents risks at a critical time of year. To test this hypothesis in relation to hare populations, work is required to provide data on differential leveret mortality between habitat types.

Spatio-temporal Change in Crowned (Propithecus coronatus) and Decken’s Sifaka (Propithecus deckenii) Habitat in the Mahavavy-Kinkony Wetland Complex, Madagascar.

The crowned sifaka (Propithecus coronatus) and Decken’s sifaka (Propithecus deckenii) are Endangered lemurs endemic to west and central Madagascar. Both have suffered habitat loss and fragmentation throughout their ranges. The goal
of this study, conducted in the Mahavavy-Kinkony Wetland Complex (MKWC) in northwestern Madagascar, was to assess the effects of historical change in the species’ habitats, and to model the potential impact of further land-use change on their habitats. The IDRISI Andes Geographical Information System and image-processing software was used for satellite-image classifiation, and the Land Change Modeler was used to compare the natural habitat of the species from 1973 to 2005, and to predict available habitat for 2050. We analyzed two forests in the MKWC occupied by P. coronatus (Antsilaiza and Anjohibe), and three forests occupied by P. deckenii (Tsiombikibo, Marofandroboka and Andohaomby). The two forests occupied by P. coronatus contracted during the period 1949–1973, but then expanded to exceed their 1949 area by 28% in 2005. However, the land change model predicted that they will contract again to match their 1949 area by 2050, and will again lose their corridor connection, meaning that the conservation gains for this species in the complex are at risk of being reversed. The three forests occupied by P. deckenii have declined in area steadily since 1949, losing 20% of their original area by 2005, and are predicted to lose a further 15% of their original area by 2050. Both species are therefore at risk of becoming even more threatened if land-use change continues within the complex. Improved conservation of the remaining forest is recommended to avoid further loss, as well as ecological restoration and reforestation to promote connectivity between the forests. A new strategy for controlling agriculture and forest use is required in order to avoid further destruction of the forest.

Evaluating the Potential Impact of a Gas Pipeline on Whimbrel Breeding Habitat in the Outer Mackenzie Delta, Northwest Territories

We used ground surveys to identify breeding habitat for Whimbrel (Numenius phaeopus) in the outer Mackenzie Delta, Northwest Territories, and to test the value of high-resolution IKONOS imagery for mapping additional breeding habitat in the Delta. During ground surveys, we found Whimbrel nests (n = 28) in extensive areas of wet-sedge low-centered polygon (LCP) habitat on two islands in the Delta (Taglu and Fish islands) in 2006 and 2007. Supervised classification using spectral analysis of IKONOS imagery successfully identified additional areas of wet-sedge habitat in the region. However, ground surveys to test this classification found that many areas of wet-sedge habitat had dense shrubs, no standing water, and/or lacked polygon structure and did not support breeding Whimbrel. Visual examination of the IKONOS imagery was necessary to determine which areas exhibited LCP structure. Much lower densities of nesting Whimbrel were also found in upland habitats near wetlands. We used habitat maps developed from a combination of methods, to perform scenario analyses to estimate the potential effects of the Mackenzie Gas Project on Whimbrel habitat. Assuming effective complete habitat loss within 20 m, 50 m, or 250 m of any infrastructure or pipeline, the currently proposed pipeline development would result in loss of 8%, 12%, or 30% of existing Whimbrel habitat. If subsidence were to occur, most Whimbrel habitat could become unsuitable. If the facility is developed, follow-up surveys will be required to test these models.

Assessing range-wide habitat suitability for the Lesser Prairie-Chicken

Population declines of many wildlife species have been linked to habitat loss incurred through land-use change. Incorporation of conservation planning into development planning may mitigate these impacts. The threatened Lesser Prairie-Chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) is experiencing loss of native habitat and high levels of energy development across its multijurisdictional range. Our goal was to explore relationships of the species occurrence with landscape characteristics and anthropogenic effects influencing its distribution through evaluation of habitat suitability associated with one particular habitat usage, lekking. Lekking has been relatively well-surveyed, though not consistently, in all jurisdictions. All five states in which Lesser Prairie-Chickens occur cooperated in development of a Maxent habitat suitability model. We created two models, one with state as a factor and one without state. When state was included it was the most important predictor, followed by percent of land cover consisting of known or suspected used vegetation classes within a 5000 m area around a lek. Without state, land cover was the most important predictor of relative habitat suitability for leks. Among the anthropogenic predictors, landscape condition, a measure of human impact integrated across several factors, was most important, ranking third in importance without state. These results quantify the relative suitability of the landscape within the current occupied range of Lesser Prairie-Chickens. These models, combined with other landscape information, form the basis of a habitat assessment tool that can be used to guide siting of development projects and targeting of areas for conservation.

The Stonehenge landscape habitat restoration project: conservation opportunities for rare butterflies?

Landscape restoration has the potential to mitigate habitat loss and fragmentation. However, restoration can take decades to reach the ecological conditions of the target habitats. The National Trust’s Stonehenge Landscape Restoration Project provides an opportunity to evaluate the ecological benefits against the economic and temporal costs. A field survey between June and September 2010 using Lepidoptera as bio-indicators showed that restored grasslands can approach the ecological conditions of the target chalk grassland habitat within 10 years. However, specialist species like Lysandra bellargus (Adonis blue) were absent from restored grasslands and may require additional management to assist their colonisation. Analysis of the Lepidoptera communities showed that both small-scale habitat heterogeneity and age of the habitat were important for explaining Lepidoptera occurrence. These results demonstrate that habitat restoration at the landscape scale combined with appropriate site-scale management can be a relatively rapid and effective method to restore ecological networks and buffer against future climate change.

Costing conservation: an expert appraisal of the pollinator habitat benefits of England’s entry level stewardship

Pollination services provided by insects play a key role in English crop production and wider ecology. Despite growing evidence of the negative effects of habitat loss on pollinator populations, limited policy support is available to reverse this pressure. One measure that may provide beneficial habitat to pollinators is England’s entry level stewardship agri-environment scheme. This study uses a novel expert survey to develop weights for a range of models which adjust the balance of Entry Level Stewardship options within the current area of spending. The annual costs of establishing and maintaining these option compositions were estimated at £59.3–£12.4 M above current expenditure. Although this produced substantial reduction in private cost:benefit ratios, the benefits of the scheme to pollinator habitat rose by 7–140 %; significantly increasing the public cost:benefit ratio. This study demonstrates that the scheme has significant untapped potential to provide good quality habitat for pollinators across England, even within existing expenditure. The findings should open debate on the costs and benefits of specific entry level stewardship management options and how these can be enhanced to benefit both participants and biodiversity more equitably.