A stochastic metapopulation model accounting for habitat dynamics

A stochastic metapopulation model accounting for habitat dynamics is presented. This is the stochastic SIS logistic model with the novel aspect that it incorporates varying carrying capacity. We present results of Kurtz and Barbour, that provide deterministic and diffusion approximations for a wide class of stochastic models, in a form that most easily allows their direct application to population models. These results are used to show that a suitably scaled version of the metapopulation model converges, uniformly in probability over finite time intervals, to a deterministic model previously studied in the ecological literature. Additionally, they allow us to establish a bivariate normal approximation to the quasi-stationary distribution of the process. This allows us to consider the effects of habitat dynamics on metapopulation modelling through a comparison with the stochastic SIS logistic model and provides an effective means for modelling metapopulations inhabiting dynamic landscapes.

The role of habitat disturbance and recovery in metapopulation persistence

Classical metapopulation theory assumes a static landscape. However, empirical evidence indicates many metapopulations are driven by habitat succession and disturbance. We develop a stochastic metapopulation model, incorporating habitat disturbance and recovery, coupled with patch colonization and extinction, to investigate the effect of habitat dynamics on persistence. We discover that habitat dynamics play a fundamental role in metapopulation dynamics. The mean number of suitable habitat patches is not adequate for characterizing the dynamics of the metapopulation. For a fixed mean number of suitable patches, we discover that the details of how disturbance affects patches and how patches recover influences metapopulation dynamics in a fundamental way. Moreover, metapopulation persistence is dependent not only oil the average lifetime of a patch, but also on the variance in patch lifetime and the synchrony in patch dynamics that results from disturbance. Finally, there is an interaction between the habitat and metapopulation dynamics, for instance declining metapopulations react differently to habitat dynamics than expanding metapopulations. We close, emphasizing the importance of using performance measures appropriate to stochastic systems when evaluating their behavior, such as the probability distribution of the state of the. metapopulation, conditional on it being extant (i.e., the quasistationary distribution).

How patch configuration affects the impact of disturbances on metapopulation persistence.

Disturbances affect metapopulations directly through reductions in population size and indirectly through habitat modification. We consider how metapopulation persistence is affected by different disturbance regimes and the way in which disturbances spread, when metapopulations are compact or elongated, using a stochastic spatially explicit model which includes metapopulation and habitat dynamics. We discover that the risk of population extinction is larger for spatially aggregated disturbances than for spatially random disturbances. By changing the spatial configuration of the patches in the system--leading to different proportions of edge and interior patches--we demonstrate that the probability of metapopulation extinction is smaller when the metapopulation is more compact. Both of these results become more pronounced when colonization connectivity decreases. Our results have important management implication as edge patches, which are invariably considered to be less important, may play an important role as disturbance refugia.

The impact of soybean expansion on mammal and bird, in the Balsas region, north Brasilian Cerrado

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Stochastic models for mainland-island metapopulations in static and dynamic landscapes

This paper has three primary aims: to establish an effective means for modelling mainland-island metapopulations inhabiting a dynamic landscape: to investigate the effect of immigration and dynamic changes in habitat on metapopulation patch occupancy dynamics; and to illustrate the implications of our results for decision-making and population management. We first extend the mainland-island metapopulation model of Alonso and McKane [Bull. Math. Biol. 64:913-958,2002] to incorporate a dynamic landscape. It is shown, for both the static and the dynamic landscape models, that a suitably scaled version of the process converges to a unique deterministic model as the size of the system becomes large. We also establish that. under quite general conditions, the density of occupied patches, and the densities of suitable and occupied patches, for the respective models, have approximate normal distributions. Our results not only provide us with estimates for the means and variances that are valid at all stages in the evolution of the population, but also provide a tool for fitting the models to real metapopulations. We discuss the effect of immigration and habitat dynamics on metapopulations, showing that mainland-like patches heavily influence metapopulation persistence, and we argue for adopting measures to increase connectivity between this large patch and the other island-like patches. We illustrate our results with specific reference to examples of populations of butterfly and the grasshopper Bryodema tuberculata.

Modelling of bird distribution under complex mediterranean landscape dynamics: open habitat birds and fire (MEDFIRE)

Report for the scientific sojourn at the Simon Fraser University, Canada, from July to September 2007. General context: landscape change during the last years is having significant impacts on biodiversity in many Mediterranean areas. Land abandonment, urbanisation and specially fire are profoundly transforming large areas in the Western Mediterranean basin and we know little on how these changes influence species distribution and in particular how these species will respond to further change in a context of global change including climate. General objectives: integrate landscape and population dynamics models in a platform allowing capturing species distribution responses to landscape changes and assessing impact on species distribution of different scenarios of further change. Specific objective 1: develop a landscape dynamic model capturing fire and forest succession dynamics in Catalonia and linked to a stochastic landscape occupancy (SLOM) (or spatially explicit population, SEPM) model for the Ortolan bunting, a species strongly linked to fire related habitat in the region. Predictions from the occupancy or spatially explicit population Ortolan bunting model (SEPM) should be evaluated using data from the DINDIS database. This database tracks bird colonisation of recently burnt big areas (&50 ha). Through a number of different SEPM scenarios with different values for a number of parameter, we should be able to assess different hypothesis in factors driving bird colonisation in new burnt patches. These factors to be mainly, landscape context (i.e. difficulty to reach the patch, and potential presence of coloniser sources), dispersal constraints, type of regenerating vegetation after fire, and species characteristics (niche breadth, etc).

Habitat-quality effects on metapopulation dynamics in greater white-toothed shrews, Crocidura russula.

The effects of patch size and isolation on metapopulation dynamics have received wide empirical support and theoretical formalization. By contrast, the effects of patch quality seem largely underinvestigated, partly due to technical difficulties in properly assessing quality. Here we combine habitat-quality modeling with four years of demographic monitoring in a metapopulation of greater white-toothed shrews (Crocidura russula) to investigate the role of patch quality on metapopulation processes. Together, local patch quality and connectivity significantly enhanced local population sizes and occupancy rates (R2 = 14% and 19%, respectively). Accounting for the quality of patches connected to the focal one and acting as potential sources improved slightly the model explanatory power for local population sizes, pointing to significant source-sink dynamics. Local habitat quality, in interaction with connectivity, also increased colonization rate (R2 = 28%), suggesting the ability of immigrants to target high-quality patches. Overall, patterns were best explained when assuming a mean dispersal distance of 800 m, a realistic value for the species under study. Our results thus provide evidence that patch quality, in interaction with connectivity, may affect major demographic processes.

The dynamics of coexistence: habitat sharing versus segregation patterns among three sympatric montane vipers

Contact zones of closely related and ecologically similar species constitute rare opportunities to study the evolutionary consequences of past speciation processes. They represent natural laboratories in which strong competition could lead to the exclusion of one species, or the various species may switch into distinct ecological niches. Alternatively, if reproductive isolation has not yet been achieved, they may hybridize. We elucidate the degree of taxon integrity by comparing genetics and habitat use of three similar-sized congeneric viper species, Vipera ammodytes, Viperaaspis, and Viperaberus, of Nadiza Valley in western Slovenia. No hybridization was detected for either mitochondrial or nuclear genomes. Similarly, external intermediacy by a single prestudy viper (probably V.ammodytesxV. aspis) indicates that hybridization occasionally occurs, but should be very rare. Populations of the three related viperids are partially allopatric in Nadiza Valley, but they also coexist in a narrow contact zone in the montane grassland along the south-exposed slope of Mount Stol (1673m a.s.l.). Here, the three species that occupy areas in or near patches of rocky microhabitats (e.g. stone piles, slides, and walls) live in syntopy. However, fine-scale measurements of structural components show partial habitat segregation, in which V.berus becomes more dominant at elevations above 1400m and occupies mostly the mountain ridge and north-exposed slopes of Mount Stol, V.aspis occurs below 1300m and is the only species to inhabit stoneless patches of grass and bushes around 1000m and lower, and V.ammodytes occurs at all elevations up to 1500m, but is restricted to a rocky microhabitat. We suggest that a high degree of microstructure divergence, slightly different environmental niches, and a generally favourable habitat for all three viper species, keep the pressure for mis-mating and hybridization low, although mechanisms such as reduced hybrid inferiority and temporal mating segregation cannot yet be excluded.

How population loss through habitat boundaries determines the dynamics of a predator-prey system

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Habitat-specific demography and source-sink dynamics in a population of Siberian jays

P>1. There are a number of models describing population structure, many of which have the capacity to incorporate spatial habitat effects. One such model is the source-sink model, that describes a system where some habitats have a natality that is higher than mortality (source) and others have a mortality that exceeds natality (sink). A source can be maintained in the absence of migration, whereas a sink will go extinct. 2. However, the interaction between population dynamics and habitat quality is complex, and concerns have been raised about the validity of published empirical studies addressing source-sink dynamics. In particular, some of these studies fail to provide data on survival, a significant component in disentangling a sink from a low quality source. Moreover, failing to account for a density-dependent increase in mortality, or decrease in fecundity, can result in a territory being falsely assigned as a sink, when in fact, this density-dependent suppression only decreases the population size to a lower level, hence indicating a 'pseudo-sink'. 3. In this study, we investigate a long-term data set for key components of territory-specific demography (mortality and reproduction) and their relationship to habitat characteristics in the territorial, group-living Siberian jay (Perisoreus infaustus). We also assess territory-specific population growth rates (r), to test whether spatial population dynamics are consistent with the ideas of source-sink dynamics. 4. Although average mortality did not differ between sexes, habitat-specific mortality did. Female mortality was higher in older forests, a pattern not observed in males. Male mortality only increased with an increasing amount of open areas. Moreover, reproductive success was higher further away from human settlement, indicating a strong effect of human-associated nest predators. 5. Averaged over all years, 76% of the territories were sources. These territories generally consisted of less open areas, and were located further away from human settlement. 6. The source-sink model provides a tool for modelling demography in distinct habitat patches of different quality, which can aid in identifying key habitats within the landscape, and thus, reduce the risk of implementing unsound management decisions.

The Distribution and Quality of Hine's Emerald Dragonfly Habitat in Relation to Surface and Groundwater Dynamics in the Lockport Prairie Preserve Preliminary Report (February 1, 2001-January 31, 2002)

INHS Technical Report prepared for Corporation for Openlands, US Fish and Wildlife Service

Small-scale genetic structure of Cerastoderma glaucum in a lagoonal environment: potential significance of habitat discontinuity and unstable population dynamics

Environmental heterogeneity in coastal lagoons is expected to facilitate local adaptation in response to different ecological conditions, causing significant genetic structuring within lagoon populations at a small scale and also differentiation between lagoons. However, these patterns and processes of genetic structuring are still poorly understood. The aims of our study were (1) to seek genetic structure at a small scale in Cerastoderma glaucum inside the Mar Menor coastal lagoon using a mitochondrial DNA marker (COI) that has previously detected genetic differentiation inside the lagoon in other species and (2) to evaluate the influence of extreme environmental conditions and habitat discontinuity on its genetic composition. The results indicate high levels of haplotype diversity and low values of nucleotide diversity. COI data provide evidence of significant population differentiation among some localities within the lagoon. Limited gene flow and unstable population dynamics (i.e. fluctuations in population size caused by local extinction and recolonization), probably due to the high environmental heterogeneity, could generate the small-scale genetic divergence detected between populations within the lagoon.

Habitat suitability of Anopheles vector species and association with human malaria in the Atlantic Forest in south-eastern Brazil

Every year, autochthonous cases of Plasmodium vivax malaria occur in low-endemicity areas of Vale do Ribeira in the south-eastern part of the Atlantic Forest, state of São Paulo, where Anopheles cruzii and Anopheles bellator are considered the primary vectors. However, other species in the subgenus Nyssorhynchus of Anopheles (e.g., Anopheles marajoara) are abundant and may participate in the dynamics of malarial transmission in that region. The objectives of the present study were to assess the spatial distribution of An. cruzii, An. bellator and An. marajoara and to associate the presence of these species with malaria cases in the municipalities of the Vale do Ribeira. Potential habitat suitability modelling was applied to determine both the spatial distribution of An. cruzii, An. bellator and An. marajoara and to establish the density of each species. Poisson regression was utilized to associate malaria cases with estimated vector densities. As a result, An. cruzii was correlated with the forested slopes of the Serra do Mar, An. bellator with the coastal plain and An. marajoara with the deforested areas. Moreover, both An. marajoara and An. cruzii were positively associated with malaria cases. Considering that An. marajoara was demonstrated to be a primary vector of human Plasmodium in the rural areas of the state of Amapá, more attention should be given to the species in the deforested areas of the Atlantic Forest, where it might be a secondary vector.

Effect of crab size and habitat type on the locomotory activity of juvenile shore crabs, Carcinus maenas

Post-settlement processes are a major focus in the study of the dynamics of marine populations and communities. Post-settlement movement of juveniles is an important, but often ignored, process which affects local predator-prey and competitive interactions. We used benthic suction sampling and pitfall traps to examine density and locomotory activity of Carcinus maenas juveniles in different intertidal habitat types in the Rio Mira Estuary, Portugal, to better understand intra-specific interactions in a system where density-dependent processes are known to regulate population dynamics. As expected, significantly higher densities of juvenile shore crabs were found from bare mud compared to densely vegetated habitats. At the time of sampling, small and intermediate stages together outnumbered by far the larger juveniles. Conversely, larger crabs were much more frequent than smaller ones in traps. A locomotory index (LI), i.e. the ratio between crab catch in pitfall traps and their density within their moving range, is proposed as a measure of movement. LI analyses indicated that: (1) movement is an order of magnitude higher in large than small juveniles and much higher in sparse than dense vegetation cover; (2) activity of small juveniles is mostly crepuscular, regardless of vegetation cover; and (3) movement of large juveniles is very limited in dense Zostera patches, but very high in sparsely vegetated areas, during the day and night. These results suggest that small juveniles are relatively protected under dense vegetation cover due to lower mobility of larger crabs, and provide evidence of temporal segregation of activity windows between juvenile crabs of different sizes, which may be a key mechanism to reduce cannibalism and therefore increase the carrying capacity of nursery habitats. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Using indicators of deforestation and land-use dynamics to support conservation strategies: A case study of central Rondonia, Brazil

In Rondonia State, Brazil, settlement processes have cleared 68,000 km 2 of tropical forests since the 1970s. The intensity of deforestation has differed by region depending on driving factors like roads and economic activities. Different histories of land-use activities and rates of change have resulted in mosaics of forest patches embedded in an agricultural matrix. Yet, most assessments of deforestation and its effects on vegetation, soil and water typically focus on landscape patterns of current conditions, yet historical deforestation dynamics can influence current conditions strongly. Here, we develop and describe the use of four land-use dynamic indicators to capture historical land-use changes of catchments and to measure the rate of deforestation (annual deforestation rate), forest regeneration level (secondary forest mean proportion), time since disturbance (mean time since deforestation) and deforestation profile (deforestation profile curvature). We used the proposed indices to analyze a watershed located in central Rondonia. Landsat TM and ETM+ images were used to produce historical land-use maps of the last 18 years, each even year from 1984 to 2002 for 20 catchments. We found that the land-use dynamics indicators are able to distinguish catchments with different land-use change profiles. Four categories of historical land-use were identified: old and dominant pasture cover on small properties, recent deforestation and dominance of secondary growth, old extensive pastures and large forest remnants and, recent deforestation, pasture and large forest remnants. Knowing historical deforestation processes is important to develop appropriate conservation strategies and define priorities and actions for conserving forests currently under deforestation. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.