Infinite horizon MPC with non-minimal state space feedback

In the MPC literature, stability is usually assured under the assumption that the state is measured. Since the closed-loop system may be nonlinear because of the constraints, it is not possible to apply the separation principle to prove global stability for the Output feedback case. It is well known that, a nonlinear closed-loop system with the state estimated via an exponentially converging observer combined with a state feedback controller can be unstable even when the controller is stable. One alternative to overcome the state estimation problem is to adopt a non-minimal state space model, in which the states are represented by measured past inputs and outputs [P.C. Young, M.A. Behzadi, C.L. Wang, A. Chotai, Direct digital and adaptative control by input-output, state variable feedback pole assignment, International journal of Control 46 (1987) 1867-1881; C. Wang, P.C. Young, Direct digital control by input-output, state variable feedback: theoretical background, International journal of Control 47 (1988) 97-109]. In this case, no observer is needed since the state variables can be directly measured. However, an important disadvantage of this approach is that the realigned model is not of minimal order, which makes the infinite horizon approach to obtain nominal stability difficult to apply. Here, we propose a method to properly formulate an infinite horizon MPC based on the output-realigned model, which avoids the use of an observer and guarantees the closed loop stability. The simulation results show that, besides providing closed-loop stability for systems with integrating and stable modes, the proposed controller may have a better performance than those MPC controllers that make use of an observer to estimate the current states. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

THE ROLE OF EARNINGS PERSISTENCE IN VALUATION ACCURACY AND THE TIME HORIZON

ABSTRACT Based on the assumption that earnings persistence has implications for both financial analysis and compensation contracts, the aim of this paper is to investigate the role of earnings persistence assuming that (i) more persistent earnings are likely to be a better input to valuation models and (ii) more persistent earnings are likely to serve as a proxy for long-term market and managerial orientation. The analysis is based on Brazilian listed firms from 1995 to 2013, and while we document strong support for the relevance of earnings persistence in financial analysis and valuation, we fail to document a significant relationship between earnings persistence and long-term value orientation. These results are sensitive to different specifications, and additional results suggest that firms' idiosyncratic risk (total risk) is relevant to explain the focus on short-term outcomes (short-termism) across firms. The main contribution of this paper is to offer empirical evidence for the relevance of accounting numbers in both valuation and contractual theories in an emergent market.

Global material analysis on phosphorus flows, supply horizon and impact assessment on phosphorus depletion

Different problems are daily discuss on environmental aspects such acid rain, eutrophication, global warming and an others problems. Rarely do we find some discussions about phosphorus problematic. Through the years the phosphorus as been a real problem and must be more discussed. On this thesis was done a global material flow analysis of phosphorus, based on data from the year 2004, the production of phosphate rock in that year was 18.9 million tones, almost this amount it was used as fertilizer on the soil and the plants only can uptake, on average, 20% of the input of fertilizer to grow up, the remainder is lost for the phosphorus soil. In the phosphorus soil there is equilibrium between the phosphorus available to uptake from the plants and the phosphorus associate with other compounds, this equilibrium depends of the kind of soil and is related with the soil pH. A reserve inventory was done and we have 15,000 million tones as reserve, the amount that is economical available. The reserve base is estimated in 47,000 million tones. The major reserves can be found in Morocco and Western Sahara, United Sates, China and South Africa. The reserve estimated in 2009 was 15,000 million tone of phosphate rock or 1,963 million tone of P. If every year the mined phosphate rock is around 22 Mt/yr (phosphorus production on 2008 USGS 2009), and each year the consumption of phosphorus increases because of the food demand, the reserves of phosphate rock will be finished in about 90 years, or maybe even less. About the value/impact assessment was done a qualitative analysis, if on the future we don’t have more phosphate rock to produce fertilizers, it is expected a drop on the crops yields, each depends of the kind of the soil and the impact on the humans feed and animal production will not be a relevant problem. We can recovery phosphorus from different waste streams such as ploughing crop residues back into the soil, Food processing plants and food retailers, Human and animal excreta, Meat and bone meal, Manure fibre, Sewage sludge and wastewater. Some of these examples are developed in the paper.

A new horizon for online teaching and learning

The Polytechnic Institute of Oporto (IPP), which has a solid history of online education and innovation through the use of technology, has been particularly interested and focused on Massive Open Online Courses (MOOC) developments. The aim of this paper is to present the whole process from initial discussions to completion of the “Mathematics Without Limits” MOOC Project that exists in IPP and also to contribute for a change in the way as teaching and learning Mathematics is seen and practiced nowadays. In 2013, IPP developed its own platform, which gave us the opportunity to explore new educational techniques as a pedagogical resource as well as to enhance students’ motivation, through a set of interactive materials at their disposal, totally adapted to their needs. Students lack of motivation is mainly justified by their weak Math preparation, poor consolidated basis on the subject and different backgrounds of the students. To tackle this issue and based on our Math online courses teaching experience, we decided to create short duration MOOC, expecting to aid retention of students and also to reverse the path of students giving up on Math by giving them a friendly way of managing their own learning commitment. We also think that this MOOC will be a good approach to level out some math skills among freshmen.

A new horizon for online teaching and learning

The Polytechnic Institute of Oporto (IPP), which has a solid history of online education and innovation through the use of technology, has been particularly interested and focused on Massive Open Online Courses (MOOC) developments. The aim of this paper is to present the whole process from initial discussions to completion of the “Mathematics Without Limits” MOOC Project that exists in IPP and also to contribute for a change in the way as teaching and learning Mathematics is seen and practiced nowadays. In 2013, IPP developed its own platform, which gave us the opportunity to explore new educational techniques as a pedagogical resource as well as to enhance students’ motivation, through a set of interactive materials at their disposal, totally adapted to their needs. Students lack of motivation is mainly justified by their weak Math preparation, poor consolidated basis on the subject and different backgrounds of the students. To tackle this issue and based on our Math online courses teaching experience, we decided to create short duration MOOC, expecting to aid retention of students and also to reverse the path of students giving up on Math by giving them a friendly way of managing their own learning commitment. We also think that this MOOC will be a good approach to level out some math skills among freshmen.

A New horizon for online teaching and learning

The Polytechnic Institute of Oporto (IPP), which has a solid history of online education and innovation through the use of technology, has been particularly interested and focused on Massive Open Online Courses (MOOC) developments. The aim of this paper is to present the whole process from initial discussions to completion of the “Mathematics Without Limits” MOOC Project that exists in IPP and also to contribute for a change in the way as teaching and learning Mathematics is seen and practiced nowadays. In 2013, IPP developed its own platform, which gave us the opportunity to explore new educational techniques as a pedagogical resource as well as to enhance students’ motivation, through a set of interactive materials at their disposal, totally adapted to their needs. Students lack of motivation is mainly justified by their weak Math preparation, poor consolidated basis on the subject and different backgrounds of the students. To tackle this issue and based on our Math online courses teaching experience, we decided to create short duration MOOC, expecting to aid retention of students and also to reverse the path of students giving up on Math by giving them a friendly way of managing their own learning commitment. We also think that this MOOC will be a good approach to level out some math skills among freshmen.

Acquisition of Horizon Wind Energy by EdP

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Collateral, default penalties and infinite horizon equilibrium

Pascoa and Seghir (2009) noticed that when collateralized promises become subject to utility penalties on default, Ponzi schemes may occur. However, equilibrium exists in some interesting cases. Under low penalties, equilibrium exists if the collateral does not yield utility (for example, when it is a productive asset or a security). Equilibrium exists also under more severe penalties and collateral utility gains, when the promise or the collateral are nominal assets and the margin requirements are endogenous: relative inflation rates and margin coefficients can make the income effects dominate the penalty effects. An equilibrium refinement avoids no-trade equilibria with unduly repayment beliefs. Our refinement differs from the one used by Dubey, Geanakoplos and Shubik (2005) as it does not eliminate no trade equilibria whose low delivery rates are consistent with the propensity to default of agents that are on the verge of selling.

Finite Horizon Learning

Incorporating adaptive learning into macroeconomics requires assumptions about how agents incorporate their forecasts into their decision-making. We develop a theory of bounded rationality that we call finite-horizon learning. This approach generalizes the two existing benchmarks in the literature: Eulerequation learning, which assumes that consumption decisions are made to satisfy the one-step-ahead perceived Euler equation; and infinite-horizon learning, in which consumption today is determined optimally from an infinite-horizon optimization problem with given beliefs. In our approach, agents hold a finite forecasting/planning horizon. We find for the Ramsey model that the unique rational expectations equilibrium is E-stable at all horizons. However, transitional dynamics can differ significantly depending upon the horizon.

La médecine de famille en Suisse à l'horizon 2030: quelle place pour la délégation des tâches médicales. [Family practitioners in Switzerland by 2030: which roles for medical task delegation?]

Due to population aging, by 2030 Switzerland may face a demand of 24 million family practitioner visits, a growth of 13 percent from the 2005 level. This result is based on the assumption that the per capita demand for doctor visits remains what was observed in 2005 by age groups and sex. During the same period, the total number of practitioners may decrease by 14 percent whereas the female proportion of such practitioners may double. These changes may cause a 33 percent decrease in the supply of physician visits to reach only 14 millions. The comparison of the demand and supply of family doctor visits reveals that by 2030, 10 million visits may be unmet which represents 40 percent of the demand. On the supply side, a full scale implementation of task delegation may partially reduce that gap (minus 2 millions). On the demand side, improved health status may bring in a larger decrease in the needs for visits (minus 4 million).

Nash equilibrium strategies in discrete-time finite-horizon dynamic games with risk-and effort-averse players

The objective of this paper is to re-examine the risk-and effort attitude in the context of strategic dynamic interactions stated as a discrete-time finite-horizon Nash game. The analysis is based on the assumption that players are endogenously risk-and effort-averse. Each player is characterized by distinct risk-and effort-aversion types that are unknown to his opponent. The goal of the game is the optimal risk-and effort-sharing between the players. It generally depends on the individual strategies adopted and, implicitly, on the the players' types or characteristics.