Treatment for prevention of HIV transmission in a localised epidemic : the case for South Australia

Background: Discussion is currently taking place among international HIV/AIDS groups around increasing HIV testing and initiating earlier use of antiretroviral therapy (ART) among people diagnosed with HIV as a method to reduce the spread of HIV. In this study, we explore the expected epidemiological impact of this strategy in a small population in which HIV transmission is predominantly confined to men who have sex with men (MSM). Methods: A deterministic mathematical transmission model was constructed to investigate the impacts of strategies that increase testing and treatment rates, and their likely potential to mitigate HIV epidemics among MSM. Our novel model distinguishes men in the population who are more easily accessible to prevention campaigns through engagement with the gay community from men who are not. This model is applied to the population of MSM in South Australia. Results: Our model-based findings suggest that increasing testing rates alone will have minimal impact on reducing the expected number of infections compared to current conditions. However, in combination with increases in treatment coverage, this strategy could lead to a 59–68% reduction in the number of HIV infections over the next 5 years. Targeting men who are socially engaged with the gay community would result in the majority of potential reductions in incidence, with only minor improvements possible by reaching all other MSM. Conclusions: Investing in strategies that will achieve higher coverage and earlier initiation of treatment to reduce infectiousness of HIV-infected individuals could be an effective strategy for reducing incidence in a population of MSM.

Gay men's estimates of the likelihood of HIV transmission in sexual behaviours

In 3 studies we recorded gay men's estimates of the likelihood that HIV would be transmitted in various sexual behaviours. In Study 1 (data collected 1993, n=92), the men were found to believe that transmissibility is very much greater than it actually is; that insertive unprotected anal intercourse (UAI) by an HIV-infected partner is made safer by withdrawal before ejaculation, and very much safer by withdrawal before either ejaculation or pre-ejaculation; that UAI is very much safer when an infected partner is receptive rather than insertive; that insertive oral sex by an infected partner is much less risky than even the safest variant of UAI; that HIV is less transmissible very early after infection than later on; and that risk accumulates over repeated acts of UAI less than it actually does. In Study 2 (data collected 1997/8, n=200), it was found that younger and older uninfected men generally gave similar estimates of transmissibility, but that infected men gave somewhat lower estimates than uninfected men; and that estimates were unaffected by asking the men to imagine that they themselves, rather than a hypothetical other gay man, were engaging in the behaviours. Comparison of the 1993 and 1997/8 results suggested that there had been some effect of an educational campaign warning of the dangers of withdrawal; however, there had been no effect either of a campaign warning of the dangers of receptive UAI by an infected partner, or of publicity given to the greater transmissibility of HIV shortly after infection. In Study 3 (data collected 1999, n=59), men induced into a positive mood were found to give lower estimates of transmissibility than either men induced into a neutral mood or men induced into a negative mood. It is argued that the results reveal the important contribution made to gay men's transmissibility estimates by cognitive strategies (such as the 'availability heuristic' and 'anchoring and adjustment') known to be general characteristics of human information-processing. Implications of the findings for AIDS education are discussed.

Visualization of HIV-1 interactions with penile and foreskin epithelia: clues for female-to-male HIV transmission

To gain insight into female-to-male HIV sexual transmission and how male circumcision protects against this mode of transmission, we visualized HIV-1 interactions with foreskin and penile tissues in ex vivo tissue culture and in vivo rhesus macaque models utilizing epifluorescent microscopy. 12 foreskin and 14 cadaveric penile specimens were cultured with R5-tropic photoactivatable (PA)-GFP HIV-1 for 4 or 24 hours. Tissue cryosections were immunofluorescently imaged for epithelial and immune cell markers. Images were analyzed for total virions, proportion of penetrators, depth of virion penetration, as well as immune cell counts and depths in the tissue. We visualized individual PA virions breaching penile epithelial surfaces in the explant and macaque model. Using kernel density estimated probabilities of localizing a virion or immune cell at certain tissue depths revealed that interactions between virions and cells were more likely to occur in the inner foreskin or glans penis (from local or cadaveric donors, respectively). Using statistical models to account for repeated measures and zero-inflated datasets, we found no difference in total virions visualized at 4 hours between inner and outer foreskins from local donors. At 24 hours, there were more virions in inner as compared to outer foreskin (0.0495 +/- 0.0154 and 0.0171 +/- 0.0038 virions/image, p = 0.001). In the cadaveric specimens, we observed more virions in inner foreskin (0.0507 +/- 0.0079 virions/image) than glans tissue (0.0167 +/- 0.0033 virions/image, p<0.001), but a greater proportion was seen penetrating uncircumcised glans tissue (0.0458 +/- 0.0188 vs. 0.0151 +/- 0.0100 virions/image, p = 0.099) and to significantly greater mean depths (29.162 +/- 3.908 vs. 12.466 +/- 2.985 μm). Our in vivo macaque model confirmed that virions can breach penile squamous epithelia in a living model. In summary, these results suggest that the inner foreskin and glans epithelia may be important sites for HIV transmission in uncircumcised men.

Viral load monitoring of antiretroviral therapy, cohort viral load and HIV transmission in Southern Africa: A mathematical modelling analysis

In low-income settings, treatment failure is often identified using CD4 cell count monitoring. Consequently, patients remain on a failing regimen, resulting in a higher risk of transmission. We investigated the benefit of routine viral load monitoring for reducing HIV transmission.

Antiretroviral therapy for prevention of HIV transmission in HIV-discordant couples

Antiretroviral drugs have been shown to reduce risk of mother-to-child transmission of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and are also widely used for post-exposure prophylaxis for parenteral and sexual exposures. Observational data, ecological studies and models suggest that sexual transmission may be lower in couples in which one partner is infected with HIV and the other is not and the infected partner is on antiretroviral therapy (ART).

Antiretroviral therapy for prevention of HIV transmission in HIV-discordant couples

Antiretroviral drugs have been shown to reduce risk of mother-to-child transmission of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and are also widely used for post-exposure prophylaxis for parenteral and sexual exposures. Observational data, ecological studies and models suggest that sexual transmission may be lower in couples in which one partner is infected with HIV and the other is not and the infected partner is on antiretroviral therapy (ART).

The Design and Analysis of Partner Studies of HIV Transmission

Common goals in epidemiologic studies of infectious diseases include identification of the infectious agent, description of the modes of transmission and characterization of factors that influence the probability of transmission from infected to uninfected individuals. In the case of AIDS, the agent has been identified as the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV), and transmission is known to occur through a variety of contact mechanisms including unprotected sexual intercourse, transfusion of infected blood products and sharing of needles in intravenous drug use. Relatively little is known about the probability of IV transmission associated with the various modes of contact, or the role that other cofactors play in promoting or suppressing transmission. Here, transmission probability refers to the probability that the virus is transmitted to a susceptible individual following exposure consisting of a series of potentially infectious contacts. The infectivity of HIV for a given route of transmission is defined to be the per contact probability of infection. Knowledge of infectivity and its relationship to other factors is important in understanding the dynamics of the AIDS epidemic and in suggesting appropriate measures to control its spread. The primary source of empirical data about infectivity comes from sexual partners of infected individuals. Partner studies consist of a series of such partnerships, usually heterosexual and monogamous, each composed of an initially infected "index case" and a partner who may or may not be infected by the time of data collection. However, because the infection times of both partners may be unknown and the history of contacts uncertain, any quantitative characterization of infectivity is extremely difficult. Thus, most statistical analyses of partner study data involve the simplifying assumption that infectivity is a constant common to all partnerships. The major objectives of this work are to describe and discuss the design and analysis of partner studies, providing a general statistical framework for investigations of infectivity and risk factors for HIV transmission. The development is largely based on three papers: Jewell and Shiboski (1990), Kim and Lagakos (1990), and Shiboski and Jewell (1992).

Antiretroviral therapy for prevention of HIV transmission in HIV-discordant couples

BACKGROUND Antiretroviral drugs have been shown to reduce risk of mother-to-child transmission of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and are also widely used for post-exposure prophylaxis for parenteral and sexual exposures. Sexual transmission may be lower in couples in which one partner is infected with HIV and the other is not and the infected partner is on antiretroviral therapy (ART). OBJECTIVES To determine if ART use in an HIV-infected member of an HIV-discordant couple is associated with lower risk of HIV transmission to the uninfected partner compared to untreated discordant couples. SEARCH METHODS We used standard Cochrane methods to search electronic databases and conference proceedings with relevant search terms without limits to language. SELECTION CRITERIA Randomised controlled trials (RCT), cohort studies and case-control studies of HIV-discordant couples in which the HIV-infected member of the couple was being treated or not treated with ART DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Abstracts of all trials identified by electronic or bibliographic scanning were examined independently by two authors. We initially identified 3,833 references and examined 87 in detail for study eligibility. Data were abstracted independently using a standardised abstraction form. MAIN RESULTS One RCT and nine observational studies were included in the review. These ten studies identified 2,112 episodes of HIV transmission, 1,016 among treated couples and 1,096 among untreated couples. The rate ratio for the single randomised controlled trial was 0.04 [95% CI 0.00, 0.27]. All index partners in this study had CD4 cell counts at baseline of 350-550 cells/µL. Similarly, the summary rate ratio for the nine observational studies was 0.58 [95% CI 0.35, 0.96], with substantial heterogeneity (I(2)=64%). After excluding two studies with inadequate person-time data, we estimated a summary rate ratio of 0.36 [95% CI 0.17, 0.75] with substantial heterogeneity (I(2)=62%). We also performed subgroup analyses among the observational studies to see if the effect of ART on prevention of HIV differed by the index partner's CD4 cell count. Among couples in which the infected partner had ≥350 CD4 cells/µL, we estimated a rate ratio of 0.12 [95% CI 0.01, 1.99]. In this subgroup, there were 247 transmissions in untreated couples and 30 in treated couples. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS ART is a potent intervention for prevention of HIV in discordant couples in which the index partner has ≤550 CD4 cells/µL. A recent multicentre RCT confirms the suspected benefit seen in earlier observational studies and reported in more recent ones. Questions remain about durability of protection, the balance of benefits and adverse events associated with earlier therapy, long-term adherence and transmission of ART-resistant strains to partners. Resource limitations and implementation challenges must also be addressed.Counselling, support, and follow up, as well as mutual disclosure, may have a role in supporting adherence, so programmes should be designed with these components. In addition to ART provision, the operational aspects of delivering such programmes must be considered.

Tracing of patients lost to follow-up and HIV transmission: Mathematical modelling study based on two large ART programmes in Malawi

OBJECTIVES: Treatment as prevention depends on retaining HIV-infected patients in care. We investigated the effect on HIV transmission of bringing patients lost to follow up (LTFU) back into care. DESIGN: Mathematical model. METHODS: Stochastic mathematical model of cohorts of 1000 HIV-infected patients on antiretroviral therapy (ART), based on data from two clinics in Lilongwe, Malawi. We calculated cohort viral load (CVL; sum of individual mean viral loads each year) and used a mathematical relationship between viral load and transmission probability to estimate the number of new HIV infections. We simulated four scenarios: 'no LTFU' (all patients stay in care); 'no tracing' (patients LTFU are not traced); 'immediate tracing' (after missed clinic appointment); and, 'delayed tracing' (after six months). RESULTS: About 440 of 1000 patients were LTFU over five years. CVL (million copies/ml per 1000 patients) were 3.7 (95% prediction interval [PrI] 2.9-4.9) for no LTFU, 8.6 (95% PrI 7.3-10.0) for no tracing, 7.7 (95% PrI 6.2-9.1) for immediate, and 8.0 (95% PrI 6.7-9.5) for delayed tracing. Comparing no LTFU with no tracing the number of new infections increased from 33 (95% PrI 29-38) to 54 (95% PrI 47-60) per 1000 patients. Immediate tracing prevented 3.6 (95% PrI -3.3-12.8) and delayed tracing 2.5 (95% PrI -5.8-11.1) new infections per 1000. Immediate tracing was more efficient than delayed tracing: 116 and to 142 tracing efforts, respectively, were needed to prevent one new infection. CONCLUSION: Tracing of patients LTFU enhances the preventive effect of ART, but the number of transmissions prevented is small.

Impact of viral load and the duration of primary infection on HIV transmission

Abstract Objectives: HIV 'treatment as prevention' (TasP) describes early treatment of HIV-infected patients intended to reduce viral load and transmission. Crucial assumptions for estimating TasP's effectiveness are the underlying estimates of transmission risk. We aimed to determine transmission risk during primary infection, and of the relation of HIV transmission risk to viral load. Design: A systematic review and meta-analysis. Methods: We searched PubMed and Embase databases for studies that established a relationship between viral load and transmission risk, or primary infection and transmission risk, in serodiscordant couples. We analysed assumptions about the relationship between viral load and transmission risk, and between duration of primary infection and transmission risk. Results: We found 36 eligible articles, based on six different study populations. Studies consistently found that larger viral loads lead to higher HIV transmission rates, but assumptions about the shape of this increase varied from exponential increase to saturation. The assumed duration of primary infection ranged from 1.5 to 12 months; for each additional month, the log10 transmission rate ratio between primary and asymptomatic infection decreased by 0.40. Conclusion: Assumptions and estimates of the relationship between viral load and transmission risk, and the relationship between primary infection and transmission risk, vary substantially and predictions of TasP's effectiveness should take this uncertainty into account.

Higher Risk of Incident HCV-Coinfections in MSM with a Wide HIV Transmission Bottleneck

BACKGROUND  High-risk sexual behaviors have been suggested as drivers of the recent dramatic increase of sexually-transmitted HCV among HIV-infected men who have sex with men(MSM). METHODS  We assessed the association between the HIV-transmission-bottleneck and the prevalence and incidence of HCV-coinfections in HIV-infected MSM from the Swiss-HIV-Cohort-Study(SHCS). As a proxy for the width of the transmission bottleneck we used the fraction of ambiguous nucleotides in Genotypic-Resistance-Tests(GRTs) from recent HIV-infections. We defined a broad bottleneck as a fraction of ambiguous nucleotides exceeding a previously-established threshold(0.5%). RESULTS  From the SHCS, we identified 671 MSMs with available HCV-serologies and with a HIV-GRT sampled during recent infection. Of those, 161(24.0%) exhibited a broad HIV-transmission-bottleneck, 38(5.7%) had at least one positive HCV test, and 26(3.9%) had an incident HCV infection. Individuals with broad HIV-transmission bottlenecks exhibited a twofold-higher odds of having ever experienced an HCV coinfection(OR[95%CI]=2.2[1.1, 4.3]) and a threefold-higher hazard of an incident HCV infection(HR[95%CI]= 3.0[1.4, 6.6]) than individuals with narrow HIV-transmission-bottlenecks. CONCLUSIONS  Our results indicate that the currently occurring sexual spread of HCV is focused on those MSMs that are prone to exhibit broad HIV-transmission-bottlenecks. This is consistent with an important role of high-risk behavior and mucosal-barrier-impairment in the transmission of HCV among MSM.