Evaluation of the potential impact of the global economic crisis on HIV epidemics in Southeast Asia

Economic conditions around the world are likely to deteriorate in the short to medium term. The potential impact of this crisis on the spread of HIV is not clear. Government revenues and aid flows from international donors may face constraints, possibly leading to reductions in funding for HIV programs. Economic conditions (leading to increases in unemployment, for example) may also have an indirect impact on HIV epidemics by affecting the behaviour of individual people. Some behavioural changes may influence the rate of HIV transmission. This report presents findings from a study that investigates the potential impact of the economic crisis on HIV epidemics through the use of mathematical modelling. The potential epidemiological impacts of changes in the economy are explored for two distinctly characterised HIV epidemics: (i) a well-defined, established, and generalised HIV epidemic (specifically Cambodia, where incidence is declining); (ii) an HIV epidemic in its early expansion phase (specifically Papua New Guinea, where incidence has not yet peaked). Country-specific data are used for both settings and the models calibrated to accurately reflect the unique HIV epidemics in each population in terms of both incidence and prevalence. Models calibrated to describe the past and present epidemics are then used to forecast epidemic trajectories over the next few years under assumptions that behavioural or program conditions may change due to economic conditions. It should be noted that there are very limited solid data on how HIV/AIDS program funds may decrease or how social determinants related to HIV risk may change due to the economic crisis. Potential changes in key relevant factors were explored, along with sensitivity ranges around these assumptions, based on extensive discussions with in-country and international experts and stakeholders. As with all mathematical models, assumptions should be reviewed critically and results interpreted cautiously.

A construção social do cuidado em um grupo de apoio aos indivíduos portadores do vírus HIV/AIDS: estratégias e enfretamentos

O objetivo principal deste trabalho consiste em analisar a construção social do cuidado em um grupo específico de apoio aos portadores do vírus HIV/AIDS. Para tanto, apresentamos uma discussão teórico-conceitual e metodológica desenvolvida em quatro capítulos. Nos dois primeiros refletimos sobre a trajetória, do enfrentamento da epidemia do HIV/Aids no Brasil e o papel das ONGs nessa trajetória, buscando delinear o campo de disputando qual um grupo específico de portadores do vírus HIV/Aids se insere e assume posição contra-hegemônica. Em seguida, no terceiro capítulo, mapeamos o percurso da formação desse grupo, analisando o engendramento das atividades ali desenvolvidas e os reflexos do campo de disputa no interior do grupo. No capítulo seguinte, refletimos sobre a história de vida de uma das participantes do grupo, por meio da qual identificamos quais as possíveis configurações desse sujeito, mediante sua inserção nos espaços sociais. Verificamos que tal inserção amplia sua capacidade de articular saberes no enfrentamento dos seus problemas de saúde. Concluímos que o grupo estabelece modos de fazer que primam pela manutenção do vínculo por onde circulam bens e se efetuam as solidariedades. Além disso, percebemos que as hegemônicas concepções de saúde e doença estão tendo seus poros alargados por este reordenamento social que não somente filtra os valores indesejáveis da visão hegemônica, como também propicia aos sujeitos a redescoberta do seu próprio cuidado. Por fim, constatamos que as representações sobre saúde e doença, decorrentes da que as representações dobre saúde e doença, decorrentes da inserção do sujeito em espaços sociais específicos, como os grupos de apoio, provocam (re)significações importantes: trabalhar, cozinhar, dormir, alimentar-se e também aquelas que estavam somente na ordem do lazer, como passear, ficar em casa com a família, visitar e ser visitado por amigos, dançar e outras, ganham nova dimensão e passam a ser vistas como vetores de saúde. Deste modo, gestos simples e práticas habituais assumem aspectos de táticas que modulam o cuidado dos sujeitos, Estas práticas realizadas no cotidiano, as quais chamamos de cuidado vivo, são também percebidas pelos sujeitos como cuidado.

Using scenarios to explore the social aspects of design led innovations

Emerging technologies have redefined the way people go about everyday life. An increasing array of online and on-the-go solutions supporting remote work, entertainment on demand, information sharing, social communication, telehealth and beyond, are now available at the touch of a screen. This paper discusses concept of scenarios as a design tool that can be successfully employed by organisations as an innovative design led approach to: (i) understand people’s everyday practices in current social contexts in order to identify opportunities and emerging markets, and (ii) reveal stakeholder relationships existing in the provision of services within current everyday practices. To illustrate this approach, two case studies will be presented: the first focusing on a real industry project exploring opportunities for the development of future health care services, the second focusing on people’s access to services as part of a transport journey experience. This paper aims to demonstrate the use of scenarios as part of a design led innovation approach to understand the social aspects and their complexities of new designs in an increasing everyday technological driven context.

What impact might the economic crisis have on HIV epidemics in Southeast Asia?

Objective: To evaluate the potential impact of the current global economic crisis (GEC) on the spread of HIV. Design: To evaluate the impact of the economic downturn we studied two distinct HIV epidemics in Southeast Asia: the generalized epidemic in Cambodia where incidence is declining and the epidemic in Papua New Guinea (PNG) which is in an expansion phase. Methods: Major HIV-related risk factors that may change due to the GEC were identified and a dynamic mathematical transmission model was developed and used to forecast HIV prevalence, diagnoses, and incidence in Cambodia and PNG over the next 3 years. Results: In Cambodia, the total numbers of HIV diagnoses are not expected to be largely affected. However, an estimated increase of up to 10% in incident cases of HIV, due to potential changes in behavior, may not be observed by the surveillance system. In PNG, HIV incidence and diagnoses could be more affected by the GEC, resulting in respective increases of up to 17% and 11% over the next 3 years. Decreases in VCT and education programs are the factors that may be of greatest concern in both settings. A reduction in the rollout of antiretroviral therapy could increase the number of AIDS-related deaths (by up to 7.5% after 3 years). Conclusions: The GEC is likely to have a modest impact on HIV epidemics. However, there are plausible conditions under which the economic downturns can noticeably influence epidemic trends. This study highlights the high importance of maintaining funding for HIV programs.

Getting it right: incorporating social aspects into MPA planning and implementation

This brochure summarizes a series of case studies done in nine countries—Brazil, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Senegal, South Africa, Spain,Tanzania and Thailand—on the role of communities in the planning and implementation of marine protected areas (MPAs). The studies demonstrate that communities can be powerful allies in efforts for conservation and management of coastal and marine resources. They also underline the need for systematic attention, capacity building, funding and other resources for effective implementation of Programme Element 2 on governance, participation, equity, and benefit sharing of the Programme of Work on Protected Areas (PoWPA) of the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD).

The social aspects of foreign missions, by William Herbert Perry Faunce.

http://www.archive.org/details/socialaspectsoff013484mbp

Aspects of midwifery care 2: 'enhanced role' and social aspects

This is the second in a series of six papers presenting key findings from a national study that was undertaken to investigate the role and responsibilities of midwives and to identify and address continuing educational need. The background to the study and the titles of other papers in the series were outlined in the first paper. This paper focuses on two key aspects of the midwife’s role: ‘enhanced role’ activities and social and emotional care. The implications of the findings for practice and education are discussed.