Influencing customers through customers: Simulation of herd behavior in supermarkets

This work proposes a supermarket optimization simulation model called Swarm-Moves is based on self organized complex system studies to identify parameters and their values that can influence customers to buy more on impulse in a given period of time. In the proposed model, customers are assumed to have trolleys equipped with technology like RFID that can aid the passing of products' information directly from the store to them in real-time and vice-versa. Therefore, they can get the information about other customers purchase patterns and constantly informing the store of their own shopping behavior. This can be easily achieved because the trolleys "know" what products they contain at any point. The Swarm-Moves simulation is the virtual supermarket providing the visual display to run and test the proposed model. The simulation is also flexible to incorporate any given model of customers' behavior tailored to particular supermarket, settings, events or promotions. The results, although preliminary, are promising to use RFID technology for marketing products in supermarkets and provide several dimensions to look for influencing customers via feedback, real-time marketing, target advertisement and on-demand promotions. ©2009 IEEE.

Some new results on anomalies and herd behavior: Vietnam stock market

info:eu-repo/semantics/published

An analysis of herd behavior in Latin American stock markets

This research investigates whether the major stock markets in Latin America (Brazil, Mexico, Chile, Colombia, Peru and Argentina) exhibited herd behavior over the period January 2, 2002 to June 30, 2014, using the variation in the returns overall and by sector in the most representative stock market index in each country, using the model proposed by Christie y Huang (1995) -- The results do not reveal any herd behavior in the total market, or in the sectors of the markets examined in the study

From robots to animals : Virtual fences for controlling cattle

We consider the problem of monitoring and controlling the position of herd animals, and view animals as networked agents with natural mobility but not strictly controllable. By exploiting knowledge of individual and herd behavior we would like to apply a vast body of theory in robotics and motion planning to achieving the constrained motion of a herd. In this paper we describe the concept of a virtual fence which applies a stimulus to an animal as a function of its pose with respect to the fenceline. Multiple fence lines can define a region, and the fences can be static or dynamic. The fence algorithm is implemented by a small position-aware computer device worn by the animal, which we refer to as a Smart Collar.We describe a herd-animal simulator, the Smart Collar hardware and algorithms for tracking and controlling animals as well as the results of on-farm experiments with up to ten Smart Collars.

Mathematical Aspects of Financial Markets with Frictions

Frictions are factors that hinder trading of securities in financial markets. Typical frictions include limited market depth, transaction costs, lack of infinite divisibility of securities, and taxes. Conventional models used in mathematical finance often gloss over these issues, which affect almost all financial markets, by arguing that the impact of frictions is negligible and, consequently, the frictionless models are valid approximations. This dissertation consists of three research papers, which are related to the study of the validity of such approximations in two distinct modeling problems. Models of price dynamics that are based on diffusion processes, i.e., continuous strong Markov processes, are widely used in the frictionless scenario. The first paper establishes that diffusion models can indeed be understood as approximations of price dynamics in markets with frictions. This is achieved by introducing an agent-based model of a financial market where finitely many agents trade a financial security, the price of which evolves according to price impacts generated by trades. It is shown that, if the number of agents is large, then under certain assumptions the price process of security, which is a pure-jump process, can be approximated by a one-dimensional diffusion process. In a slightly extended model, in which agents may exhibit herd behavior, the approximating diffusion model turns out to be a stochastic volatility model. Finally, it is shown that when agents' tendency to herd is strong, logarithmic returns in the approximating stochastic volatility model are heavy-tailed. The remaining papers are related to no-arbitrage criteria and superhedging in continuous-time option pricing models under small-transaction-cost asymptotics. Guasoni, Rásonyi, and Schachermayer have recently shown that, in such a setting, any financial security admits no arbitrage opportunities and there exist no feasible superhedging strategies for European call and put options written on it, as long as its price process is continuous and has the so-called conditional full support (CFS) property. Motivated by this result, CFS is established for certain stochastic integrals and a subclass of Brownian semistationary processes in the two papers. As a consequence, a wide range of possibly non-Markovian local and stochastic volatility models have the CFS property.

Besides tracking: Simulation of RFID marketing and beyond

This paper asks a new question: how we can use RFID technology in marketing products in supermarkets and how we can measure its performance or ROI (Return-on-Investment). We try to answer the question by proposing a simulation model whereby customers become aware of other customers' real-time shopping behavior and may hence be influenced by their purchases and the levels of purchases. The proposed model is orthogonal to sales model and can have the similar effects: increase in the overall shopping volume. Managers often struggle with the prediction of ROI on purchasing such a technology, this simulation sets to provide them the answers of questions like the percentage of increase in sales given real-time purchase information to other customers. The simulation is also flexible to incorporate any given model of customers' behavior tailored to particular supermarket, settings, events or promotions. The results, although preliminary, are promising to use RFID technology for marketing products in supermarkets and provide several dimensions to look for influencing customers via feedback, real-time marketing, target advertisement and on-demand promotions. Several other parameters have been discussed including the herd behavior, fake customers, privacy, and optimality of sales-price margin and the ROI of investing in RFID technology for marketing purposes. © 2010 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Short-time behaviour of demand and price viewed through an exactly solvable model for heterogeneous interacting market agents

We introduce a stochastic heterogeneous interacting-agent model for the short-time non-equilibrium evolution of excess demand and price in a stylized asset market. We consider a combination of social interaction within peer groups and individually heterogeneous fundamentalist trading decisions which take into account the market price and the perceived fundamental value of the asset. The resulting excess demand is coupled to the market price. Rigorous analysis reveals that this feedback may lead to price oscillations, a single bounce, or monotonic price behaviour. The model is a rare example of an analytically tractable interacting-agent model which allows LIS to deduce in detail the origin of these different collective patterns. For a natural choice of initial distribution, the results are independent of the graph structure that models the peer network of agents whose decisions influence each other. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evidência do efeito manada em fundos de renda variável na indústria de fundos brasileira

Este trabalho tem por objetivo identificar e quantificar o comportamento de manada (herd behavior) nos fundos de ações ativos do mercado financeiro brasileiro, valendo- se da medida LSV, proposta por Lakonishok et al (1992). Para tanto, analisamos a composição das carteiras de 642 fundos de ação, de 214 gestores diferentes, de setembro de 2007 até outubro de 2013. Em linha com a literatura relevante, há fortes evidências da ocorrência de efeito manada de forma heterogênea na amostra analisada. Encontramos indícios de que a intensidade do efeito manada varia de acordo com o tamanho do fundo e a capitalização da ação negociada.

Um estudo sobre o mercado acionário: a abordagem tradicional vs. a abordagem complexa

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Distúrbios comportamentais em ruminantes não associados a doenças: origem, significado e importância

O estudo científico do comportamento animal frente às distintas modificações do ambiente (inanimado ou não) onde os mesmos estão sendo criados constitui o principal objetivo da etologia. Por outro lado, muitas doenças que acometem os ruminantes também cursam produzindo diversas alterações no comportamento desses animais; portanto, os profissionais que trabalham com ruminantes precisam reconhecer o que vem a ser um comportamento anormal, decorrente do empobrecimento ambiental associado ou não a erros alimentares e que resulta em prejuízos ao bem-estar dos animais (p.ex. confinamentos com superlotação, falta de sombra nas pastagens, volumosos finamente moídos) daqueles oriundos de doenças ou estados carenciais, como por exemplo, a depravação do apetite causada pelas deficiências de sódio, cobalto e de fibra fisicamente efetiva. O propósito dessa revisão é discutir sobre os principais desvios comportamentais verificados nos ruminantes domésticos criados em sistemas intensivos ou não no Brasil.

The Effect Of Conformity On Economic Decision Making

Inspired by research in the field of behavioral economics as well as social psychology, this study aimed to explore if conformity plays a role in the occurrence of herd behavior in the financial market. Participants received one of nine different versions of a survey either online or on paper. They answered questions related to riskiness when making decisions, dependency on others when making decisions, and investment preferences among other questions. In experimental conditions, participants were told the majority of investors, either sixty percent or eighty percent, invested in a certain stock or won a game. It was predicted that individuals would conform to the group behavior in both experimental conditions with the highest level of conformity in the high pressure to conform condition. Results of experiments revealed that when the overwhelming majority of other investors behaved a certain way (80%), participants were more likely to behave that same way. Results of the third experiment supported previous research stating that emotion affects economic decision-making and facilitates herd behavior.

Acute-phase protein behavior in dairy cattle herd naturally infected with Trypanosoma vivax

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Social structure and underwater behavior of harbor seals in southern Monterey Bay, California

To understand harbor seal social and mating strategies, I examined site fidelity, seasonal abundance and distribution, herd integrity, and underwater behavior of individual harbor seals in southern Monterey Bay. Individual harbor seals (n = 444) were identified by natural markings and represented greater than 80% of an estimated 520 seals within this community. Year to year fidelity of individual harbor seals to southern Monterey Bay coastline was 84% (n = 388), and long-term associations (>2 yrs) among individuals were common (>40%). Consistent with these long-term associations, harbor seals were highly social underwater throughout the year. Underwater social behavior included three primary types: (1) visual and acoustic displays, such as vocalizing, surface splashing, and bubble-blowing; (2) playful or agonistic social behavior such as rolling, mounting, attending, and biting; and (3) signal gestures such as head-thrusting, fore-flipper scratch~ng, and growling. Frequency of these types of behavior was related to seal age, gender, season, and resource availability. Underwater behavior had a variety of functions, including promotion of learning and social development, reduction of aggression and preservation of social bonds by maintaining social hierarchy, and facilitation of mate selection during breeding season. Social behavior among adult males was significantly correlated with vocalization characteristics (r = 0.99, X2 = 37.7, p = 0.00087), indicating that seals may assess their competition based on underwater vocalization displays and adopt individual strategies for attracting females during breeding season based on social status. Individual mating strategies may include defending underwater territories, using scramble tactics, and developing social alliances. (PDF contains 105 pages)

Flatfish herding behavior in response to trawl sweeps: a comparison of diel responses to conventional sweeps and elevated sweeps

Commercial bottom trawls often have sweeps to herd fish into the net. Elevation of the sweeps off the seaf loor may reduce seafloor disturbance, but also reduce herding effectiveness. In both field and laboratory experiments, we examined the behavior of flatfish in response to sweeps. We tested the hypotheses that 1) sweeps are more effective at herding flatfish during the day than at night, when fish are unable to see approaching gear, and that 2) elevation of sweeps off the seafloor reduces herding during the day, but not at night. In sea trials, day catches were greater than night catches for four out of six flatfish species examined. The elevation of sweeps 10 cm significantly decreased catches during the day, but not at night. Laboratory experiments revealed northern rock sole (Lepidopsetta polyxystra) and Pacific halibut (Hippoglossus stenolepis) were more likely to be herded by the sweep in the light, whereas in the dark they tended to pass under or over the sweep. In the light, elevation of the sweep reduced herding, and more fish passed under the sweep. In contrast, in the dark, sweep elevation had little effect upon the number of fish that exhibited herding behavior. The results of both field and laboratory experiments were consistent with the premise that vision is the principle sensory input that controls fish behavior and orientation to trawl gear, and gear performance will differ between conditions where flatfish can see, in contrast to where they cannot see, the approaching gear.

Associations between the decrease in bovine clinical mastitis and changes in dairy farmers' attitude, knowledge, and behavior in the Netherlands.

The aim of this study was to associate changes in dairy farmers' self-reported attitude, knowledge, and behavior with the decrease in incidence rate of clinical mastitis (IRCM). Farmer-diagnosed clinical mastitis cases were obtained from two surveys conducted before (July 2004-June 2005) and at the end (2009) of a mastitis control program in the Netherlands. Information on farmers' attitude, knowledge, and behavior was also obtained by sending the farmers the same questionnaire during both surveys. Multivariable linear regression models identified that the herd level 2004 IRCM explained 28% of the variation in the decrease of IRCM. Changes in farmers' attitude and knowledge, and changes in farmers' behavior additionally explained 24% and 5%, respectively. These results suggest that the way management measures are executed may be at least as important as the fact that they are executed. No control group was available for this study because the intervention was applied at the national level. We therefore do not claim any causal relationships.