Greenhouse gas balance due to the conversion of sugarcane areas from burned to green harvest in Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Greenhouse gas balance due to the conversion of sugarcane areas from burned to green harvest, considering other conservationist management practices

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Greenhouse gas balance in the conversion from extensive pasture to other agricultural systems in Andean region of Colombia

Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Ciência do Solo) - FCAV

Greenhouse gas balance associated with sugarcane production in South-Central Brazil, considering the management and expansion

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Estimating the effect of nitrogen fertilizer on the greenhouse gas balance of soils in Wales under current and future climate

This work was supported by a Grant from the Welsh Government (Glastir Monitoring and Evaluation Project—GMEP).

Greenhouse gas emissions and energy balance of palm oil biofuel

The search for alternatives to fossil fuels is boosting interest in biodiesel production. Among the crops used to produce biodiesel, palm trees stand out due to their high productivity and positive energy balance. This work assesses life cycle emissions and the energy balance of biodiesel production from palm oil in Brazil. The results are compared through a meta-analysis to previous published studies: Wood and Corley (1991) [Wood BJ, Corley RH. The energy balance of oil palm cultivation. In: PORIM intl. palm oil conference agriculture; 1991.], Malaysia; Yusoff and Hansen (2005) [Yusoff S. Hansen SB. Feasibility study of performing an life cycle assessment on crude palm oil production in Malaysia. International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment 2007;12:50-8], Malaysia; Angarita et al. (2009) [Angarita EE, Lora EE, Costa RE, Torres EA. The energy balance in the palm oil-derived methyl ester (PME) life cycle for the cases in Brazil and Colombia. Renewable Energy 2009;34:2905-13], Colombia; Pleanjai and Gheewala (2009) [Pleanjai S. Gheewala SH. Full chain energy analysis of biodiesel production from palm oil in Thailand. Applied Energy 2009;86:S209-14], Thailand; and Yee et al. (2009) [Yee KF, Tan KT, Abdullah AZ, Lee la. Life cycle assessment of palm biodiesel: revealing facts and benefits for sustainability. Applied Energy 2009;86:S189-96], Malaysia. In our study, data for the agricultural phase, transport, and energy content of the products and co-products were obtained from previous assessments done in Brazil. The energy intensities and greenhouse gas emission factors were obtained from the Simapro 7.1.8. software and other authors. These factors were applied to the inputs and outputs listed in the selected studies to render them comparable. The energy balance for our study was 1:5.37. In comparison the range for the other studies is between 1:3.40 and 1:7.78. Life cycle emissions determined in our assessment resulted in 1437 kg CO(2)e/ha, while our analysis based on the information provided by other authors resulted in 2406 kg CO(2)e/ha, on average. The Angarita et al. (2009) [Angarita EE, Lora EE, Costa RE, Torres EA. The energy balance in the palm oil-derived methyl ester (PME) life cycle for the cases in Brazil and Colombia. Renewable Energy 2009:34:2905-13] study does not report emissions. When compared to diesel on a energy basis, avoided emissions due to the use of biodiesel account for 80 g CO(2)e/MJ. Thus, avoided life Cycle emissions associated with the use of biodiesel yield a net reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. We also assessed the carbon balance between a palm tree plantation, including displaced emissions from diesel, and a natural ecosystem. Considering the carbon balance outcome plus life cycle emissions the payback time for a tropical forest is 39 years. The result published by Gibbs et al. (2008) [Gibbs HK, Johnston M, Foley JA, Holloway T, Monfreda C, Ramankutty N, et al., Carbon payback times for crop-based biofuel expansion in the tropics: the effects of changing yield and technology. Environmental Research Letters 2008;3:10], which ignores life cycle emissions, determined a payback range for biodiesel production between 30 and 120 years. Crown Copyright (C) 2010 Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Net greenhouse gas fluxes in Brazilian ethanol production systems

Biofuels are both a promising solution to global warming mitigation and a potential contributor to the problem. Several life cycle assessments of bioethanol have been conducted to address these questions. We performed a synthesis of the available data on Brazilian ethanol production focusing on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and carbon (C) sinks in the agricultural and industrial phases. Emissions of carbon dioxide (CO(2)) from fossil fuels, methane (CH(4)) and nitrous oxide (N(2)O) from sources commonly included in C footprints, such as fossil fuel usage, biomass burning, nitrogen fertilizer application, liming and litter decomposition were accounted for. In addition, black carbon (BC) emissions from burning biomass and soil C sequestration were included in the balance. Most of the annual emissions per hectare are in the agricultural phase, both in the burned system (2209 out of a total of 2398 kg C(eq)), and in the unburned system (559 out of 748 kg C(eq)). Although nitrogen fertilizer emissions are large, 111 kg C(eq) ha-1 yr-1, the largest single source of emissions is biomass burning in the manual harvest system, with a large amount of both GHG (196 kg C(eq) ha-1 yr-1). and BC (1536 kg C(eq) ha-1 yr-1). Besides avoiding emissions from biomass burning, harvesting sugarcane mechanically without burning tends to increase soil C stocks, providing a C sink of 1500 kg C ha-1 yr-1 in the 30 cm layer. The data show a C output: input ratio of 1.4 for ethanol produced under the conventionally burned and manual harvest compared with 6.5 for the mechanized harvest without burning, signifying the importance of conservation agricultural systems in bioethanol feedstock production.

Greenhouse gas emission associated with sugar production in southern Brazil

Background: Since sugarcane areas have increased rapidly in Brazil, the contribution of the sugarcane production, and, especially, of the sugarcane harvest system to the greenhouse gas emissions of the country is an issue of national concern. Here we analyze some data characterizing various activities of two sugarcane mills during the harvest period of 2006-2007 and quantify the carbon footprint of sugar production.Results: According to our calculations, 241 kg of carbon dioxide equivalent were released to the atmosphere per a ton of sugar produced (2406 kg of carbon dioxide equivalent per a hectare of the cropped area, and 26.5 kg of carbon dioxide equivalent per a ton of sugarcane processed). The major part of the total emission (44%) resulted from residues burning; about 20% resulted from the use of synthetic fertilizers, and about 18% from fossil fuel combustion.Conclusions: The results of this study suggest that the most important reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from sugarcane areas could be achieved by switching to a green harvest system, that is, to harvesting without burning. © 2010 de Figueiredo et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

Flujos de gases de efecto invernadero en suelos forestales y agroforestales del centro de la Península Ibérica=Greenhouse gas flows in forest and agroforestry soils in the center of the Iberian Peninsula

Debido a la complejidad de los procesos que controlan el intercambio de gases de carbono (C) y nitrógeno (N) entre el suelo y la atmósfera, en los sistemas forestales y agroforestales, son comprensibles las incógnitas existentes respecto a la estimación de los flujos de los gases de efecto invernadero (GEI) y la capacidad como reservorios de carbono de los suelos, bajo diferentes formas de uso y regímenes de alteración a escala regional y global. Esta escasez de información justifica la necesidad de caracterizar la dinámica de intercambio de GEI en los ecosistemas Mediterráneos, en especial en el contexto actual de cambio climático, y el incremento asociado de temperatura y periodos de sequía, alteración de los patrones de precipitación, y el riesgo de incendios forestales; cuyas consecuencias afectarán tanto a los compartimentos de C y de N del suelo como a la capacidad de secuestro de C de estos ecosistemas. Dentro de este contexto se enmarca la presente tesis doctoral cuyo objetivo ha sido cuantificar y caracterizar los flujos de dióxido de carbono (CO2), de oxido nitroso (N2O) y de metano (CH4), junto con los stocks de C y N, en suelos forestales de Quercus ilex, Quercus pyrenaica y Pinus sylvestris afectados por incendios forestales; así como el estudiar el efecto de la gestión y la cubierta arbórea en la respiración del suelo y los stocks de C y N en una dehesa situada en el centro de la Península Ibérica. De manera que los flujos de CO2, N2O y CH4; y los parámetros físico-químicos y biológicos del suelo fueron estudiados en los diferentes tratamientos y ecosistemas a lo largo del trabajo que se presenta. Los resultados obtenidos muestran la existencia de variaciones temporales y espaciales de la respiración del suelo dentro de una escala geográfica pequeña, controladas principalmente por la temperatura y la humedad del suelo; y por los contenidos de C y N del suelo en un bosque de Pinus sylvestris en la vertiente norte de la Sierra de Guadarrama , en España. El análisis de los efectos de los incendios forestales a largo plazo (6-8 años) revela que las pérdidas anuales de C a través de la respiración del suelo en las zonas quemadas de Quercus ilex, Quercus pyrenaica y Pinus sylvestris fueron 450 gCm-2yr-1, 790 gCm-2yr-1 y 1220 gCm-2yr-1, respectivamente; lo que representa una reducción del 43%, 22% y 11% en comparación con las zonas no quemadas de dichas especies, debido a la destrucción de la masa arbórea. El efecto del fuego también alteró los flujos N2O y CH4 del suelo, de una forma diferente en los distintos ecosistemas y estacionalidades estudiadas. De tal modo, que los suelos quemados mostraron una mayor oxidación del CH4 en las masas de Q. ilex, y una menor oxidación en las de P. sylvestris; además de una disminución de los flujos de N2O en Q. pyrenaica. Los incendios también afectaron los parámetros microclimáticos de los suelos forestales, observándose un incremento de la temperatura del suelo y una disminución de la humedad en los emplazamientos quemados que en los no quemados. Los cationes intercambiables, el pH, el cociente C/N, el contenido en raicillas y la biomasa microbiana también disminuyeron en las zonas quemadas. Aunque el C orgánico del suelo no se alteró de manera significativa, si lo hizo la calidad de la materia orgánica, disminuyendo el carbono lábil y aumentando las formas recalcitrantes lo que se tradujo en menor sensibilidad de la respiración del suelo a la temperatura (valores de Q10) en las zonas quemadas. Los resultados del estudio realizado en la Dehesa muestran que las actividades silvopastorales estudiadas afectaron levemente y de forma no constante a la respiración del suelo y las condiciones microclimáticas del suelo. Se observó una reducción 12% de la respiración del suelo por efecto del pastoreo no intensivo. Sin embargo, se observaron incrementos de 3Mg/ha en los stocks de C y de 0.3 Mg/ha en los stocks de N en los suelos pastoreados en comparación con los no pastoreados. Aunque, no se observó un claro efecto de la labranza sobre la respiración del suelo en nuestro experimento, sin embargo si se observó una disminución de 3.5 Mg/ha en las reservas de C y de 0.3 Mg/ ha en las de N en los suelos labrados comparados con los no labrados. La copa del arbolado influyó de forma positiva tanto en la respiración del suelo, como en los stocks de C y N de los suelos. La humedad del suelo jugó un papel relevante en la sensibilidad de la respiración a la temperatura del suelo. Nuestros resultados ponen de manifiesto la sensibilidad de la respiración del suelo a cambios en la humedad y los parámetros edáficos, y sugieren que la aplicación de modelos estándar para estimar la respiración del suelo en áreas geográficas pequeñas puede no ser adecuada a menos que otros factores sean considerados en combinación con la temperatura del suelo. Además, las diferentes respuestas de los flujos de gases de efecto invernadero a los cambios, años después de la ocurrencia de incendios forestales, destaca la necesidad de incluir estos cambios en las futuras investigaciones de la dinámica del carbono en los ecosistemas mediterráneos. Por otra parte, las respuestas divergentes en los valores de respiración del suelo y en los contenidos de C y N del suelo observados en la dehesa, además de la contribución de la copa de los árboles en los nutrientes del suelo ilustran la importancia de mantener la gestión tradicional aplicada en beneficio de la capacidad de almacenar C en la dehesa estudiada. La información obtenida en este trabajo pretende contribuir a la mejora del conocimiento de la dinámica y el balance de C en los sistemas mediterráneos, además de ayudar a predecir el impacto del cambio climático en el intercambio de C entre los ecosistemas forestales y agroforestales y la atmósfera. ABSTRACT Due to the complexity of the processes that control the exchange of carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) gasses between soils and the atmosphere in forest and agroforestry ecosystems, understandable uncertainties exist as regards the estimation of greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes and the soil sink capacity at regional and global scale under different forms of land use and disturbance regimes. These uncertainties justify the need to characterize the exchange dynamics of GHG between the atmosphere and soils in Mediterranean terrestrial ecosystems, particularly in the current context of climate change and the associated increase in temperature, drought periods, heavy rainfall events, and increased risk of wildfires, which affect not only the C and N pools but also the soil C sink capacity of these ecosystems. Within this context, the aims of the present thesis were, firstly, to quantify and characterize the fluxes of carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane (CH4) as well as the C and N stocks in Quercus ilex, Quercus pyrenaica and Pinus sylvestris stands affected by wildfires, and secondly, to study the effects of Quercus ilex canopy and management on both soil respiration and C and N pools in dehesa systems in the center of Iberian Peninsula. Soil CO2, N2O and CH4 fluxes, and soil physical-chemical and biological parameters were studied under the different treatments and ecosystems considered in this study. The results showed seasonal and spatial variations in soil respiration within small geographic areas, mainly controlled by soil temperature and moisture in addition to soil carbon and nitrogen stocks in mixed pine–oak forest ecosystems on the north facing slopes of the Sierra de Guadarrama in Spain. The analysis of long term effects of wildfires (6–8 years) revealed that annual carbon losses through soil respiration from burned sites in Quercus ilex, Quercus pyrenaica and Pinus sylvestris stands were 450 gCm-2yr-1, 790 gCm-2yr-1 and 1220 gCm-2yr-1, respectively; with burned sites emitting 43%, 22% and 11% less in burned as opposed to non-burned sites due the loss of trees. Fire may alter both N2O and CH4 fluxes although the magnitude of such variation depends on the site, soil characteristics and seasonal climatic conditions. The burned sites showed higher CH4 oxidation in Q.ilex stands, and lower oxidation rates in P. sylvestris stands. A reduction in N2O fluxes in Q. pyrenaica stands was detected at burned sites along with changes in soil microclimate; higher soil temperature and lower soil moisture content. Exchangeable cations, the C/N ratio, pH, fine root and microbial biomass were also found to decrease at burned sites. Although the soil organic carbon was not significantly altered, the quality of the organic matter changed, displaying a decrease in labile carbon and a relative increase in refractory forms, leading to lower sensitivity of soil respiration to temperature (Q10 values) at burned sites. The results from the dehesa study show that light grazing and superficial tilling practices used in the studied dehesa system in Spain had a slight but non-consistent impact on soil respiration and soil microclimate over the study period. The reduction in soil respiration in the dehesa system due to the effects of grazing was around 12 %. However, increments of 3Mg/ha in C stocks and 0.3 Mg/ha in N stocks in grazed soils were observed. Although no clear effect of tilling on soil respiration was found, a decrease of 3.5 Mg/ha in C stocks and 0.3 Mg/ha in N stocks was detected for tilled soils. The presence of a tree canopy induced increases in soil respiration, soil C and N stocks, while soil moisture was found to play an important role in soil respiration temperature response. Our results suggest that the use of standard models to estimate soil respiration in small geographical areas may not be adequate unless other factors are considered in addition to soil temperature. Furthermore, the different responses of GHG flux to climatic shifts, many years after the occurrence of wildfire, highlight the need to include these shifts in C dynamics in future research undertaken in Mediterranean ecosystems. Furthermore, divergent responses in soil respiration and soil C and N stocks to grazing or tilling practices in Dehesa systems, and the influence of tree canopy on soil respiration and soil nutrient content, illustrate the importance of maintaining beneficial management practices. Moreover, the carbon sequestration capacity of the Dehesa system studied may be enhanced through improvements in the management applied. It is hoped that the information obtained through this research will contribute towards improving our understanding of the dynamics and balance of C in Mediterranean systems, and help predict the impact of climate change on the exchange of C between forest and agroforestry ecosystems and the atmosphere.

The Effects of Organic Matter Amendments and Migratory Waterfowl on Greenhouse Gas and Nutrient Dynamics in Managed Coastal Plain Wetlands

Wetland ecosystems provide many valuable ecosystem services, including carbon (C) storage and improvement of water quality. Yet, restored and managed wetlands are not frequently evaluated for their capacity to function in order to deliver on these values. Specific restoration or management practices designed to meet one set of criteria may yield unrecognized biogeochemical costs or co-benefits. The goal of this dissertation is to improve scientific understanding of how wetland restoration practices and waterfowl habitat management affect critical wetland biogeochemical processes related to greenhouse gas emissions and nutrient cycling. I met this goal through field and laboratory research experiments in which I tested for relationships between management factors and the biogeochemical responses of wetland soil, water, plants and trace gas emissions. Specifically, I quantified: (1) the effect of organic matter amendments on the carbon balance of a restored wetland; (2) the effectiveness of two static chamber designs in measuring methane (CH4) emissions from wetlands; (3) the impact of waterfowl herbivory on the oxygen-sensitive processes of methane emission and coupled nitrification-denitrification; and (4) nitrogen (N) exports caused by prescribed draw down of a waterfowl impoundment.

The potency of CH4 emissions from wetlands raises the concern that widespread restoration and/or creation of freshwater wetlands may present a radiative forcing hazard. Yet data on greenhouse gas emissions from restored wetlands are sparse and there has been little investigation into the greenhouse gas effects of amending wetland soils with organic matter, a recent practice used to improve function of mitigation wetlands in the Eastern United States. I measured trace gas emissions across an organic matter gradient at a restored wetland in the coastal plain of Virginia to test the hypothesis that added C substrate would increase the emission of CH4. I found soils heavily loaded with organic matter emitted significantly more carbon dioxide than those that have received little or no organic matter. CH4 emissions from the wetland were low compared to reference wetlands and contrary to my hypothesis, showed no relationship with the loading rate of added organic matter or total soil C. The addition of moderate amounts of organic matter (< 11.2 kg m-2) to the wetland did not greatly increase greenhouse gas emissions, while the addition of high amounts produced additional carbon dioxide, but not CH4.

I found that the static chambers I used for sampling CH4 in wetlands were highly sensitive to soil disturbance. Temporary compression around chambers during sampling inflated the initial chamber CH4 headspace concentration and/or lead to generation of nonlinear, unreliable flux estimates that had to be discarded. I tested an often-used rubber-gasket sealed static chamber against a water-filled-gutter seal chamber I designed that could be set up and sampled from a distance of 2 m with a remote rod sampling system to reduce soil disturbance. Compared to the conventional design, the remotely-sampled static chambers reduced the chance of detecting inflated initial CH4 concentrations from 66 to 6%, and nearly doubled the proportion of robust linear regressions from 45 to 86%. The new system I developed allows for more accurate and reliable CH4 sampling without costly boardwalk construction.

I explored the relationship between CH4 emissions and aquatic herbivores, which are recognized for imposing top-down control on the structure of wetland ecosystems. The biogeochemical consequences of herbivore-driven disruption of plant growth, and in turn, mediated oxygen transport into wetland sediments, were not previously known. Two growing seasons of herbivore exclusion experiments in a major waterfowl overwintering wetland in the Southeastern U.S. demonstrate that waterfowl herbivory had a strong impact on the oxygen-sensitive processes of CH4 emission and nitrification. Denudation by herbivorous birds increased cumulative CH4 flux by 233% (a mean of 63 g CH4 m-2 y-1) and inhibited coupled nitrification-denitrification, as indicated by nitrate availability and emissions of nitrous oxide. The recognition that large populations of aquatic herbivores may influence the capacity for wetlands to emit greenhouse gases and cycle nitrogen is particularly salient in the context of climate change and nutrient pollution mitigation goals. For example, our results suggest that annual emissions of 23 Gg of CH4 y-1 from ~55,000 ha of publicly owned waterfowl impoundments in the Southeastern U.S. could be tripled by overgrazing.

Hydrologically controlled moist-soil impoundment wetlands provide critical habitat for high densities of migratory bird populations, thus their potential to export nitrogen (N) to downstream waters may contribute to the eutrophication of aquatic ecosystems. To investigate the relative importance of N export from these built and managed habitats, I conducted a field study at an impoundment wetland that drains into hypereutrophic Lake Mattamuskeet. I found that prescribed hydrologic drawdowns of the impoundment exported roughly the same amount of N (14 to 22 kg ha-1) as adjacent fertilized agricultural fields (16 to 31 kg ha-1), and contributed approximately one-fifth of total N load (~45 Mg N y-1) to Lake Mattamuskeet. Ironically, the prescribed drawdown regime, designed to maximize waterfowl production in impoundments, may be exacerbating the degradation of habitat quality in the downstream lake. Few studies of wetland N dynamics have targeted impoundments managed to provide wildlife habitat, but a similar phenomenon may occur in some of the 36,000 ha of similarly-managed moist-soil impoundments on National Wildlife Refuges in the southeastern U.S. I suggest early drawdown as a potential method to mitigate impoundment N pollution and estimate it could reduce N export from our study impoundment by more than 70%.

In this dissertation research I found direct relationships between wetland restoration and impoundment management practices, and biogeochemical responses of greenhouse gas emission and nutrient cycling. Elevated soil C at a restored wetland increased CO2 losses even ten years after the organic matter was originally added and intensive herbivory impact on emergent aquatic vegetation resulted in a ~230% increase in CH4 emissions and impaired N cycling and removal. These findings have important implications for the basic understanding of the biogeochemical functioning of wetlands and practical importance for wetland restoration and impoundment management in the face of pressure to mitigate the environmental challenges of global warming and aquatic eutrophication.

Greenhouse gas emissions from alternative futures of deforestation and agricultural management in the southern Amazon

The Brazilian Amazon is one of the most rapidly developing agricultural areas in the world and represents a potentially large future source of greenhouse gases from land clearing and subsequent agricultural management. In an integrated approach, we estimate the greenhouse gas dynamics of natural ecosystems and agricultural ecosystems after clearing in the context of a future climate. We examine scenarios of deforestation and postclearing land use to estimate the future (2006-2050) impacts on carbon dioxide (CO(2)), methane (CH(4)), and nitrous oxide (N(2)O) emissions from the agricultural frontier state of Mato Grosso, using a process-based biogeochemistry model, the Terrestrial Ecosystems Model (TEM). We estimate a net emission of greenhouse gases from Mato Grosso, ranging from 2.8 to 15.9 Pg CO(2)-equivalents (CO(2)-e) from 2006 to 2050. Deforestation is the largest source of greenhouse gas emissions over this period, but land uses following clearing account for a substantial portion (24-49%) of the net greenhouse gas budget. Due to land-cover and land-use change, there is a small foregone carbon sequestration of 0.2-0.4 Pg CO(2)-e by natural forests and cerrado between 2006 and 2050. Both deforestation and future land-use management play important roles in the net greenhouse gas emissions of this frontier, suggesting that both should be considered in emissions policies. We find that avoided deforestation remains the best strategy for minimizing future greenhouse gas emissions from Mato Grosso.

The Amazon Frontier of Land-Use Change: Croplands and Consequences for Greenhouse Gas Emissions

The Brazilian Amazon is one of the most rapidly developing agricultural frontiers in the world. The authors assess changes in cropland area and the intensification of cropping in the Brazilian agricultural frontier state of Mato Grosso using remote sensing and develop a greenhouse gas emissions budget. The most common type of intensification in this region is a shift from single-to double-cropping patterns and associated changes in management, including increased fertilization. Using the enhanced vegetation index (EVI) from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor, the authors created a green-leaf phenology for 2001-06 that was temporally smoothed with a wavelet filter. The wavelet-smoothed green-leaf phenology was analyzed to detect cropland areas and their cropping patterns. The authors document cropland extensification and double-cropping intensification validated with field data with 85% accuracy for detecting croplands and 64% and 89% accuracy for detecting single-and double-cropping patterns, respectively. The results show that croplands more than doubled from 2001 to 2006 to cover about 100 000 km(2) and that new double-cropping intensification occurred on over 20% of croplands. Variations are seen in the annual rates of extensification and double-cropping intensification. Greenhouse gas emissions are estimated for the period 2001-06 due to conversion of natural vegetation and pastures to row-crop agriculture in Mato Grosso averaged 179 Tg CO(2)-e yr(-1),over half the typical fossil fuel emissions for the country in recent years.

An analysis of US greenhouse gas cap-and-trade proposals using a forward-looking economic model

We develop a forward-looking version of the recursive dynamic MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, and apply it to examine the economic implications of proposals in the US Congress to limit greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We find that shocks in the consumption path are smoothed out in the forward-looking model and that the lifetime welfare cost of GHG policy is lower than in the recursive model, since the forward-looking model can fully optimize over time. The forward-looking model allows us to explore issues for which it is uniquely well suited, including revenue-recycling and early action crediting. We find capital tax recycling to be more welfare-cost reducing than labor tax recycling because of its long-term effect on economic growth. Also, there are substantial incentives for early action credits; however, when spread over the full horizon of the policy they do not have a substantial effect on lifetime welfare costs.