Improving precision and reducing bias in biological surveys: estimating false-negative error rates

The use of presence/absence data in wildlife management and biological surveys is widespread. There is a growing interest in quantifying the sources of error associated with these data. We show that false-negative errors (failure to record a species when in fact it is present) can have a significant impact on statistical estimation of habitat models using simulated data. Then we introduce an extension of logistic modeling, the zero-inflated binomial (ZIB) model that permits the estimation of the rate of false-negative errors and the correction of estimates of the probability of occurrence for false-negative errors by using repeated. visits to the same site. Our simulations show that even relatively low rates of false negatives bias statistical estimates of habitat effects. The method with three repeated visits eliminates the bias, but estimates are relatively imprecise. Six repeated visits improve precision of estimates to levels comparable to that achieved with conventional statistics in the absence of false-negative errors In general, when error rates are less than or equal to50% greater efficiency is gained by adding more sites, whereas when error rates are >50% it is better to increase the number of repeated visits. We highlight the flexibility of the method with three case studies, clearly demonstrating the effect of false-negative errors for a range of commonly used survey methods.

Gastrointestinal transit in the common brushtail possum measured by gamma scintigraphy

This paper reports an example of the application of pharmaceutical technology to wildlife management, specifically the design of an oral delivery system for the common brushtail possum in New Zealand. Designing an oral delivery system requires a knowledge of the time taken for particulates to reach target sites within the gastrointestinal tract (GIT). The transit time for fluid and indigestible particles of two different size ranges was determined in the common brushtail possum (Trichosurus vulpecula). Technetium-labelled (Tc-99m) anion exchange resin particles (75-125 or 500-700 mu m diameter) or solution (Tc-99m-labelled diethylenetriamine pentaacetic acid, Tc-99m-DTPA) was administered orally. At predetermined times after dosing (3, 6, 12, 24 or 32 h), the distribution of radioactivity throughout excised gastrointestinal tracts was determined by gamma scintigraphy. The transit profile was similar for the three formulations investigated. Unlike other closely related hindgut fermenting marsupials, there was no evidence to support the presence of a colonic separating mechanism in the common brushtail possum. Gastrointestinal transit was independent of body mass, gender and time of day that the dose is given. To target the hindgut for oral delivery of protein and peptide biocontrol agents, the formulation Would need to protect the bioactive for approximately 12 h prior to release. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Eccentric calf muscle exercise produces a greater acute reduction in Achilles tendon thickness than concentric exercise

Objective: To investigate the acute effects of isolated eccentric and concentric calf muscle exercise on Achilles tendon sagittal thickness. ---------- Design: Within-subject, counterbalanced, mixed design. ---------- Setting: Institutional. ---------- Participants: 11 healthy, recreationally active male adults. ---------- Interventions: Participants performed an exercise protocol, which involved isolated eccentric loading of the Achilles tendon of a single limb and isolated concentric loading of the contralateral, both with the addition of 20% bodyweight. ---------- Main outcome measurements: Sagittal sonograms were acquired prior to, immediately following and 3, 6, 12 and 24 h after exercise. Tendon thickness was measured 2 cm proximal to the superior aspect of the calcaneus. ---------- Results: Both loading conditions resulted in an immediate decrease in normalised Achilles tendon thickness. Eccentric loading induced a significantly greater decrease than concentric loading despite a similar impulse (−0.21 vs −0.05, p<0.05). Post-exercise, eccentrically loaded tendons recovered exponentially, with a recovery time constant of 2.5 h. The same exponential function did not adequately model changes in tendon thickness resulting from concentric loading. Even so, recovery pathways subsequent to the 3 h time point were comparable. Regardless of the exercise protocol, full tendon thickness recovery was not observed until 24 h. ---------- Conclusions: Eccentric loading invokes a greater reduction in Achilles tendon thickness immediately after exercise but appears to recover fully in a similar time frame to concentric loading.

Persistent ocean monitoring with underwater gliders : towards accurate reconstruction of dynamic ocean processes

Ocean processes are dynamic and complex events that occur on multiple different spatial and temporal scales. To obtain a synoptic view of such events, ocean scientists focus on the collection of long-term time series data sets. Generally, these time series measurements are continually provided in real or near-real time by fixed sensors, e.g., buoys and moorings. In recent years, an increase in the utilization of mobile sensor platforms, e.g., Autonomous Underwater Vehicles, has been seen to enable dynamic acquisition of time series data sets. However, these mobile assets are not utilized to their full capabilities, generally only performing repeated transects or user-defined patrolling loops. Here, we provide an extension to repeated patrolling of a designated area. Our algorithms provide the ability to adapt a standard mission to increase information gain in areas of greater scientific interest. By implementing a velocity control optimization along the predefined path, we are able to increase or decrease spatiotemporal sampling resolution to satisfy the sampling requirements necessary to properly resolve an oceanic phenomenon. We present a path planning algorithm that defines a sampling path, which is optimized for repeatability. This is followed by the derivation of a velocity controller that defines how the vehicle traverses the given path. The application of these tools is motivated by an ongoing research effort to understand the oceanic region off the coast of Los Angeles, California. The computed paths are implemented with the computed velocities onto autonomous vehicles for data collection during sea trials. Results from this data collection are presented and compared for analysis of the proposed technique.

Towards improvement of autonomous glider navigation accuracy through the use of regional ocean models

Autonomous underwater gliders are robust and widely-used ocean sampling platforms that are characterized by their endurance, and are one of the best approaches to gather subsurface data at the appropriate spatial resolution to advance our knowledge of the ocean environment. Gliders generally do not employ sophisticated sensors for underwater localization, but instead dead-reckon between set waypoints. Thus, these vehicles are subject to large positional errors between prescribed and actual surfacing locations. Here, we investigate the implementation of a large-scale, regional ocean model into the trajectory design for autonomous gliders to improve their navigational accuracy. We compute the dead-reckoning error for our Slocum gliders, and compare this to the average positional error recorded from multiple deployments conducted over the past year. We then compare trajectory plans computed on-board the vehicle during recent deployments to our prediction-based trajectory plans for 140 surfacing occurrences.

Predicting wave glider speed from environmental measurements

In the ocean science community, researchers have begun employing novel sensor platforms as integral pieces in oceanographic data collection, which have significantly advanced the study and prediction of complex and dynamic ocean phenomena. These innovative tools are able to provide scientists with data at unprecedented spatiotemporal resolutions. This paper focuses on the newly developed Wave Glider platform from Liquid Robotics. This vehicle produces forward motion by harvesting abundant natural energy from ocean waves, and provides a persistent ocean presence for detailed ocean observation. This study is targeted at determining a kinematic model for offline planning that provides an accurate estimation of the vehicle speed for a desired heading and set of environmental parameters. Given the significant wave height, ocean surface and subsurface currents, wind speed and direction, we present the formulation of a system identification to provide the vehicle’s speed over a range of possible directions.

Malnutrition and poor food intake are associated with prolonged hospital stay, frequent readmissions, and greater in-hospital mortality: Results from the Nutrition Care Day Survey 2010

Background & aims The Australasian Nutrition Care Day Survey (ANCDS) ascertained if malnutrition and poor food intake are independent risk factors for health-related outcomes in Australian and New Zealand hospital patients. Methods Phase 1 recorded nutritional status (Subjective Global Assessment) and 24-h food intake (0, 25, 50, 75, 100% intake). Outcomes data (Phase 2) were collected 90-days post-Phase 1 and included length of hospital stay (LOS), readmissions and in-hospital mortality. Results Of 3122 participants (47% females, 65 ± 18 years) from 56 hospitals, 32% were malnourished and 23% consumed ≤ 25% of the offered food. Malnourished patients had greater median LOS (15 days vs. 10 days, p < 0.0001) and readmissions rates (36% vs. 30%, p = 0.001). Median LOS for patients consuming ≤ 25% of the food was higher than those consuming ≤ 50% (13 vs. 11 days, p < 0.0001). The odds of 90-day in-hospital mortality were twice greater for malnourished patients (CI: 1.09–3.34, p = 0.023) and those consuming ≤ 25% of the offered food (CI: 1.13–3.51, p = 0.017), respectively. Conclusion The ANCDS establishes that malnutrition and poor food intake are independently associated with in-hospital mortality in the Australian and New Zealand acute care setting.

Glider path-planning for optimal sampling of mesocale eddies

Ocean gliders constitute an important advance in the highly demanding ocean monitoring scenario. Their effciency, endurance and increasing robustness make these vehicles an ideal observing platform for many long term oceanographic applications. However, they have proved to be also useful in the opportunis-tic short term characterization of dynamic structures. Among these, mesoscale eddies are of particular interest due to the relevance they have in many oceano-graphic processes.

The status of the Greater Flamingo in the Galapagos

The paper covers census work carried out in 1976-77 on the Greater Flamingoes on all the islands in the Galapagos Archipelago, Ecuador South America. The work was supported by funding from the World Wildlife Fund.

Review : "English language education across Greater China" by A. Feng

I have formally learned English from Year Four till the completion of my undergraduate study in China. Because of this personal history, I was keen to review this book and revisit English education in China. The list of contributors to the book includes Anwei Feng (editor) and his colleagues, who play an insider role in English language practice, research, and policy-making in ‘Greater China’. ‘Greater China’ according to Feng, can be defined as geographically close, demographically Chinese-dominated, and culturally, economically, and socio-politically interrelated countries and territories where Chinese is either the mother tongue or used as an official language.

Moderate sleep restriction in treated older male OSA participants: Greater impairment during monotonous driving compared with controls

Objectives To examine the effects on monotonous driving of normal sleep versus one night of sleep restriction in continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) treated obstructive sleep apnoea (OSA) patients compared with age matched healthy controls. Methods Nineteen CPAP treated compliant male OSA patients (OSA-treated patients (OPs)), aged 50–75 years, and 20 healthy age-matched controls underwent both a normal night’s sleep and sleep restriction to 5 h (OPs remained on CPAP) in a counterbalanced design. All participants completed a 2 h afternoon monotonous drive in a realistic car simulator. Driving was monitored for sleepiness-related minor and major lane deviations, with ‘safe’ driving time being total time driven prior to first major lane deviation. EEGs were recorded continuously, and subjective sleepiness ratings were taken at regular intervals throughout the drive. Results After a normal night’s sleep, OPs and controls did not differ in terms of driving performance or in their ability to assess the levels of their own sleepiness, with both groups driving ‘safely’ for approximately 90 min. However, after sleep restriction, OPs had a significantly shorter (65 min) safe driving time and had to apply more compensatory effort to maintain their alertness compared with controls. They also underestimated the enhanced sleepiness. Nevertheless, apart from this caveat, there were generally close associations between subjective sleepiness, likelihood of a major lane deviation and EEG changes indicative of sleepiness. Conclusions With a normal night’s sleep, effectively treated older men with OSA drive as safely as healthy men of the same age. However, after restricted sleep, driving impairment is worse than that of controls. This suggests that, although successful CPAP treatment can alleviate potential detrimental effects of OSA on monotonous driving following normal sleep, these patients remain more vulnerable to sleep restriction.