Grand fleet days.

Reprinted from various periodicals.

New dimensions in early flood warning across the globe using grand-ensemble weather predictions

Early and effective flood warning is essential to initiate timely measures to reduce loss of life and economic damage. The availability of several global ensemble weather prediction systems through the “THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble” (TIGGE) archive provides an opportunity to explore new dimensions in early flood forecasting and warning. TIGGE data has been used as meteorological input to the European Flood Alert System (EFAS) for a case study of a flood event in Romania in October 2007. Results illustrate that awareness for this case of flooding could have been raised as early as 8 days before the event and how the subsequent forecasts provide increasing insight into the range of possible flood conditions. This first assessment of one flood event illustrates the potential value of the TIGGE archive and the grand-ensembles approach to raise preparedness and thus to reduce the socio-economic impact of floods.

Tracking the uncertainty in flood alerts driven by grand ensemble weather predictions

The incorporation of numerical weather predictions (NWP) into a flood warning system can increase forecast lead times from a few hours to a few days. A single NWP forecast from a single forecast centre, however, is insufficient as it involves considerable non-predictable uncertainties and can lead to a high number of false or missed warnings. Weather forecasts using multiple NWPs from various weather centres implemented on catchment hydrology can provide significantly improved early flood warning. The availability of global ensemble weather prediction systems through the ‘THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble’ (TIGGE) offers a new opportunity for the development of state-of-the-art early flood forecasting systems. This paper presents a case study using the TIGGE database for flood warning on a meso-scale catchment (4062 km2) located in the Midlands region of England. For the first time, a research attempt is made to set up a coupled atmospheric-hydrologic-hydraulic cascade system driven by the TIGGE ensemble forecasts. A probabilistic discharge and flood inundation forecast is provided as the end product to study the potential benefits of using the TIGGE database. The study shows that precipitation input uncertainties dominate and propagate through the cascade chain. The current NWPs fall short of representing the spatial precipitation variability on such a comparatively small catchment, which indicates need to improve NWPs resolution and/or disaggregating techniques to narrow down the spatial gap between meteorology and hydrology. The spread of discharge forecasts varies from centre to centre, but it is generally large and implies a significant level of uncertainties. Nevertheless, the results show the TIGGE database is a promising tool to forecast flood inundation, comparable with that driven by raingauge observation.

The Maunder minimum (1645-1715) was indeed a grand minimum: a reassessment of multiple datasets

Aims. Although the time of the Maunder minimum (1645–1715) is widely known as a period of extremely low solar activity, it is still being debated whether solar activity during that period might have been moderate or even higher than the current solar cycle (number 24). We have revisited all existing evidence and datasets, both direct and indirect, to assess the level of solar activity during the Maunder minimum. Methods. We discuss the East Asian naked-eye sunspot observations, the telescopic solar observations, the fraction of sunspot active days, the latitudinal extent of sunspot positions, auroral sightings at high latitudes, cosmogenic radionuclide data as well as solar eclipse observations for that period. We also consider peculiar features of the Sun (very strong hemispheric asymmetry of the sunspot location, unusual differential rotation and the lack of the K-corona) that imply a special mode of solar activity during the Maunder minimum. Results. The level of solar activity during the Maunder minimum is reassessed on the basis of all available datasets. Conclusions. We conclude that solar activity was indeed at an exceptionally low level during the Maunder minimum. Although the exact level is still unclear, it was definitely lower than during the Dalton minimum of around 1800 and significantly below that of the current solar cycle #24. Claims of a moderate-to-high level of solar activity during the Maunder minimum are rejected with a high confidence level.

Aclimatização de mudas micropropagadas de bananeira 'Grand Naine' com aplicação de biofertilizantes em duas estações do ano

A utilização de mudas de bananeira micropropagadas de qualidade é o primeiro passo na implantação de um bom pomar e, para isso, sua aclimatização deve ser realizada de forma adequada. em vista disso, objetivou-se, neste trabalho, avaliar o desempenho dos biofertilizantes HUMITEC® e RUTER AA® no desenvolvimento de mudas de bananeira micropropagadas, sendo instalado um experimento em viveiro comercial de produção de mudas. Foram utilizadas mudas de bananeira cv. Grand Naine, obtidas por micropropagação, sendo, posteriormente, transplantadas em sacos de polietileno preto (1,5 L), contendo, como substrato, terra de subsolo (Latossolo Amarelo), casca de arroz carbonizada e composto orgânico Organifol® (1:1:1). O delineamento experimental foi em blocos ao acaso, fatorial 2 x 4 (produtos e doses), com quatro repetições e quatro plantas úteis por parcela. Os tratamentos foram compostos pelos seguintes biofertilizantes e doses: HUMITEC® (0,0; 4,0; 8,0; 16,0 mL planta-1) e RUTER AA® (0,0; 2,0; 4,0; 8,0 mL planta-1). As doses dos produtos foram divididas em duas aplicações (28 e 56 dias após o transplantio das mudas), aplicadas via fertirrigação. Noventa e oito dias após o transplantio avaliaram-se as seguintes variáveis: altura das plantas (cm), diâmetro do colo rente superfície do solo (mm), área foliar total e por folha, biomassas fresca e seca da parte aérea e das raízes (g). Os dados foram submetidos análise da variância e quando o teste F foi significativo, realizou-se análise de regressão. Pode-se concluir que aplicações de HUMITEC® e RUTER AA® favoreceram o desenvolvimento das mudas e que, no verão, as plantas apresentaram maior desenvolvimento durante a aclimatização.

The life of General Ely S. Parker, last grand sachem of the Iroquois and General Grant's military secretary,

The Measure of the Man -- The Valley of the Rapid Water -- How the Senecas Made War Upon Great Britain -- The Grand-Daughter of the Prophet -- Boyhood Days on the Reservatio -- The Way the Twig Was Bent -- Lewis H. Morgan and the "New League of the Iroquois" -- Early Experience as an Engineer and Masonic Career -- How Parker's Enlistment was Refused by Secretary Seward -- A Sachem Becomes a Warrior -- The Fall of the Confederacy -- The Indian in the Drama at Appomattox -- The Warrior After the War -- An Indian Commissioner of Indian Affairs -- A Sachem's Letters to a Poetess -- The Gettysburg Speech of Grant's Military Secretary -- The House of Brother Nicholson -- The Bones of Red Jacket -- The Last Grand Sachem.

Steep trails; California, Utah, Nevada, Washington, Oregon, the Grand Canon.

"The papers brought together in this volume have, in a general way, been arranged in chronological sequence. They span a period of twenty-nine years of Muir's life, during which they appeared as letters and articles, for the most part in publications of limited and local circulation."--Editor's note.

Clinical evaluation of the Shin-Nippon NVision-K 5001/Grand Seiko WR-5100K autorefractor

Purpose. A clinical evaluation of the Shin-Nippon NVision-K 5001 (also branded as the Grand Seiko WR-5100K) autorefractor (Japan) was performed to examine validity and repeatability compared with subjective refraction and Javal-Schiotz keratometry. Methods. Measurements of refractive error were performed on 198 eyes of 99 subjects (aged 23.2 ± 7.4 years) subjectively (noncycloplegic) by one masked optometrist and objectively with the NVision-K autorefractor by a second optometrist. Keratometry measurements using the NVision-K were compared with the Javal-Schiotz keratometer. Intrasession repeatability of the NVision-K was also assessed on all 99 subjects together with intersession repeatability on a separate occasion separated by 7 to 14 days. Results. Refractive error as measured by the NVision-K was found to be similar (p = 0.67) to subjective refraction (difference, 0.14 ± 0.35 D). It was both accurate and repeatable over a wide prescription range (-8.25 to +7.25 D). Keratometry as measured by the NVision-K was found to be similar (p > 0.50) to the Javal-Schiotz technique in both the horizontal and vertical meridians (horizontal: difference, 0.02 ± 0.09 mm; vertical: difference, 0.01 ± 0.14 mm). There was minimal bias, and the results were repeatable (horizontal: intersession difference, 0.00 ± 0.09 mm; vertical: intersession difference, -0.01 ± 0.12 mm). Conclusion. The open-view arrangement of the Shin-Nippon NVision-K 5001 facilitates the measurement of static refractive error and the accommodative response to real-world stimuli. Coupled with its accuracy, repeatability, and capability to measure corneal curvature, it is a valuable addition to objective instrumentation currently available to the optometrist and researcher.

Clinical evaluation of the Grand Seiko Auto Ref/Keratometer WAM-5500

Purpose: A clinical evaluation of the Grand Seiko Auto Ref/Keratometer WAM-5500 (Japan) was performed to evaluate validity and repeatability compared with non-cycloplegic subjective refraction and Javal–Schiotz keratometry. An investigation into the dynamic recording capabilities of the instrument was also conducted. Methods: Refractive error measurements were obtained from 150 eyes of 75 subjects (aged 25.12 ± 9.03 years), subjectively by a masked optometrist, and objectively with the WAM-5500 at a second session. Keratometry measurements from the WAM-5500 were compared to Javal–Schiotz readings. Intratest variability was examined on all subjects, whilst intertest variability was assessed on a subgroup of 44 eyes 7–14 days after the initial objective measures. The accuracy of the dynamic recording mode of the instrument and its tolerance to longitudinal movement was evaluated using a model eye. An additional evaluation of the dynamic mode was performed using a human eye in relaxed and accommodated states. Results: Refractive error determined by the WAM-5500 was found to be very similar (p = 0.77) to subjective refraction (difference, -0.01 ± 0.38 D). The instrument was accurate and reliable over a wide range of refractive errors (-6.38 to +4.88 D). WAM-5500 keratometry values were steeper by approximately 0.05 mm in both the vertical and horizontal meridians. High intertest repeatability was demonstrated for all parameters measured: for sphere, cylinder power and MSE, over 90% of retest values fell within ±0.50 D of initial testing. In dynamic (high-speed) mode, the root-mean-square of the fluctuations was 0.005 ± 0.0005 D and a high level of recording accuracy was maintained when the measurement ring was significantly blurred by longitudinal movement of the instrument head. Conclusion: The WAM-5500 Auto Ref/Keratometer represents a reliable and valid objective refraction tool for general optometric practice, with important additional features allowing pupil size determination and easy conversion into high-speed mode, increasing its usefulness post-surgically following accommodating intra-ocular lens implantation, and as a research tool in the study of accommodation.

An examination of the relationship between workload and fatigue within and across consecutive days of work: Is the relationshiop static or dynamic?

Cognitive-energetical theories of information processing were used to generate predictions regarding the relationship between workload and fatigue within and across consecutive days of work. Repeated measures were taken on board a naval vessel during a non-routine and a routine patrol. Data were analyzed using growth curve modeling. Fatigue demonstrated a non-monotonic relationship within days in both patrols – fatigue was high at midnight, started decreasing until noontime and then increased again. Fatigue increased across days towards the end of the non-routine patrol, but remained stable across days in the routine patrol. The relationship between workload and fatigue changed over consecutive days in the non-routine patrol. At the beginning of the patrol, low workload was associated with fatigue. At the end of the patrol, high workload was associated with fatigue. This relationship could not be tested in the routine patrol, however it demonstrated a non-monotonic relationship between workload and fatigue – low and high workloads were associated with the highest fatigue. These results suggest that the optimal level of workload can change over time and thus have implications for the management of fatigue.

The manipulation of apoptosis-related genes to generate resistance to Fusarium wilt and water stress in banana

Bananas are susceptible to a diverse range of biotic and abiotic stresses, many of which cause serious production constraints worldwide. One of the most destructive banana diseases is Fusarium wilt caused by the soil-borne fungus, Fusarium oxysporum f. sp. cubense (Foc). No effective control strategy currently exists for this disease which threatens global banana production. Although disease resistance exists in some wild bananas, attempts to introduce resistance into commercially acceptable bananas by conventional breeding have been hampered by low fertility, long generation times and association of poor agronomical traits with resistance genes. With the advent of reliable banana transformation protocols, molecular breeding is now regarded as a viable alternative strategy to generate disease-resistant banana plants. Recently, a novel strategy involving the expression of anti-apoptosis genes in plants was shown to result in resistance against several necrotrophic fungi. Further, the transgenic plants showed increased resistance to a range of abiotic stresses. In this thesis, the use of anti-apoptosis genes to generate transgenic banana plants with resistance to Fusarium wilt was investigated. Since water stress is an important abiotic constraint to banana production, the resistance of the transgenic plants to water stress was also examined. Embryogenic cell suspensions (ECS) of two commercially important banana cultivars, Grand Naine (GN) and Lady Finger (LF), were transformed using Agrobacterium with the anti-apoptosis genes, Bcl-xL, Bcl-xL G138A, Ced-9 and Bcl- 2 3’ UTR. An interesting, and potentially important, outcome was that the use of anti-apoptosis genes resulted in up to a 50-fold increase in Agrobacterium-mediated transformation efficiency of both LF and GN cells over vector controls. Regenerated plants were subjected to a complete molecular characterisation in order to detect the presence of the transgene (PCR), transcript (RT-PCR) and gene product (Western blot) and to determine the gene copy number (Southern blot). A total of 36 independently-transformed GN lines (8 x Bcl-xL, 5 x Bcl-xL G138A, 15 x Ced-9 and 8 x Bcl-2 3’ UTR) and 41 independently-transformed LF lines (8 x Bcl-xL, 7 x BclxL G138A, 13 x Ced-9 and 13 x Bcl-2 3’ UTR) were identified. The 41 transgenic LF lines were multiplied and clones from each line were acclimatised and grown under glasshouse conditions for 8 weeks to allow monitoring for phenotypic abnormalities. Plants derived from 3 x Bcl-xL, 2 x Ced-9 and 5 x Bcl-2 3’ UTR lines displayed a variety of aberrant phenotypes. However, all but one of these abnormalities were off-types commonly observed in tissue-cultured, non-transgenic banana plants and were therefore unlikely to be transgene-related. Prior to determining the resistance of the transgenic plants to Foc race 1, the apoptotic effects of the fungus on both wild-type and Bcl-2 3’ UTR-transgenic LF banana cells were investigated using rapid in vitro root assays. The results from these assays showed that apoptotic-like cell death was elicited in wild-type banana root cells as early as 6 hours post-exposure to fungal spores. In contrast, these effects were attenuated in the root cells of Bcl-2 3’ UTR-transgenic lines that were exposed to fungal spores. Thirty eight of the 41 transgenic LF lines were subsequently assessed for resistance to Foc race 1 in small-plant glasshouse bioassays. To overcome inconsistencies in rating the internal (vascular discolouration) disease symptoms, a MatLab-based computer program was developed to accurately and reliably assess the level of vascular discolouration in banana corms. Of the transgenic LF banana lines challenged with Foc race 1, 2 x Bcl-xL, 3 x Ced-9, 2 x Bcl-2 3’ UTR and 1 x Bcl-xL G138A-transgenic line were found to show significantly less external and internal symptoms than wild-type LF banana plants used as susceptible controls at 12 weeks post-inoculation. Of these lines, Bcl-2 3’ UTR-transgenic line #6 appeared most resistant, displaying very mild symptoms similar to the wild-type Cavendish banana plants that were included as resistant controls. This line remained resistant for up to 23 weeks post-inoculation. Since anti-apoptosis genes have been shown to confer resistance to various abiotic stresses in other crops, the ability of these genes to confer resistance against water stress in banana was also investigated. Clonal plants derived from each of the 38 transgenic LF banana plants were subjected to water stress for a total of 32 days. Several different lines of transgenic plants transformed with either Bcl-xL, Bcl-xL G138A, Ced-9 or Bcl-2 3’ UTR showed a delay in visual water stress symptoms compared with the wild-type control plants. These plants all began producing new growth from the pseudostem following daily rewatering for one month. In an attempt to determine whether the protective effect of anti-apoptosis genes in transgenic banana plants was linked with reactive oxygen species (ROS)-associated programmed cell death (PCD), the effect of the chloroplast-targeting, ROS-inducing herbicide, Paraquat, on wild-type and transgenic LF was investigated. When leaf discs from wild-type LF banana plants were exposed to 10 ìM Paraquat, complete decolourisation occurred after 48 hours which was confirmed to be associated with cell death and ROS production by trypan blue and 3,3-diaminobenzidine (DAB) staining, respectively. When leaf discs from the transgenic lines were exposed to Paraquat, those derived from some lines showed a delay in decolourisation, suggesting only a weak protective effect from the transgenes. Finally, the protective effect of anti-apoptosis genes against juglone, a ROS-inducing phytotoxin produced by the causal agent of black Sigatoka, Mycosphaerella fijiensis, was investigated. When leaf discs from wild-type LF banana plants were exposed to 25 ppm juglone, complete decolourisation occurred after 48 hours which was again confirmed to be associated with cell death and ROS production by trypan blue and DAB staining, respectively. Further, TdT-mediated dUTP nick-end labelling (TUNEL) assays on these discs suggested that the cell death was apoptotic. When leaf discs from the transgenic lines were exposed to juglone, discs from some lines showed a clear delay in decolourisation, suggesting a protective effect. Whether these plants are resistant to black Sigatoka is unknown and will require future glasshouse and field trials. The work presented in this thesis provides the first report of the use of anti-apoptosis genes as a strategy to confer resistance to Fusarium wilt and water stress in a nongraminaceous monocot, banana. Such a strategy may be exploited to generate resistance to necrotrophic pathogens and abiotic stresses in other economically important crop plants.