Politically driven cycles in fiscal policy: in depth analysis of the functional components of government expenditures

NIPE - WP 02/2016

Social capital, government expenditures, and growth

Countries with greater social capital have higher economic growth. We show that socialcapital is also highly positively correlated across countries with government expenditureon education. We develop an infinite-horizon model of public spending and endogenousstochastic growth that explains both facts through frictions in political agency whenvoters have imperfect information. In our model, the government provides servicesthat yield immediate utility, and investment that raises future productivity. Voters aremore likely to observe public services, so politicians have electoral incentives to underprovidepublic investment. Social capital increases voters' awareness of all governmentactivity. As a consequence, both politicians' incentives and their selection improve.In the dynamic equilibrium, both the amount and the efficiency of public investmentincrease, permanently raising the growth rate.

Natural resource windfalls and efficiency of local government expenditures: evidence from Peru

We study the role of natural resource windfalls in explaining the efficiency of public expenditures. Using a rich dataset of expenditures and public good provision for 1,836 municipalities in Peru for period 2001-2010, we estimate a non-monotonic relationship between the efficiency of public good provision and the level of natural resource transfers. Local governments that were extremely favored by the boom of mineral prices were more efficient in using fiscal windfalls whereas those benefited with modest transfers were more inefficient. These results can be explained by the increase in political competition associated with the boom. However, the fact that increases in efficiency were related to reductions in public good provision casts doubts about the beneficial effects of political competition in promoting efficiency.

Expenditures, investment and financing for sustainable development in Brazil

Includes bibliography

Political process and government growth: a theoretical and empirical investigation

A striking feature of virtually al western industrialized countries sice the middle of the past century has been the persistent growth of their government sector. From the beginning of the century to the late 1970's, the government expenditures' share of gross national product has increased from 7% to 36% in the U.S., 11% to 40% in the U.K., and 3% to 25% in Japan. In Germany, it went from 7% to 42% (1872-1978), while in France it soared from 11% to 59% (1872-1979). The evolution of the number of government employees followed a similar pattern. In the U.S., for instance, the average annual rate of growth of the government labor force over the period 1899-1974 has been 3.17%, compared to a 1.62% average annual growth rate of the working population. Less quantifiable aspects like the number and scope of regulations also refelct a growing public sector.

Economic Reform and Social Sector Expenditures: A Study of Fifteen Indian States 1980/81-1999/2000

This paper examines social sector expenditures in fifteen Indian states between 1980/81 and 1999/2000 to find out whether the far-reaching economic reforms that began in 1991 had any significant impact on the level and trend of these expenditures; and if there was any such impact, what were the reasons behind the ensuing changes. The empirical analysis in this study shows that revenue became a major determinant of social sector expenditures from the mid 1980s with the result that real per capita social sector expenditures in most states started to decline even before the economic reforms began as states' fiscal deficits worsened in the 1980s. Economic reforms, therefore, largely did not have a major negative impact on expenditures. In fact there was a positive impact on some states, which often were those that received more foreign aid than other states. By the late 1990s, states expending more on the social sector changed from states with a traditionally strong commitment to the social sector, such as Kerala, to states having higher revenues including aid from outside the country.

Crowding-out and Crowding-in Effects of Government Bonds Market on Private Sector Investment (Japanese Case Study)

This paper reviews the relationship between public sector investment and private sector investment through government expenditures financed by government bonds in the Japanese economy. This study hypothesizes that deficit financing by bond issues does not crowd out private sector investment, and this finance method may crowd in. Thus the government increases bond issues and sells them in the domestic and international financial markets. This method does not affect interest rates because they are insensitive to government expenditures and they depend on interest rates levels in the international financial market more than in the domestic financial market because of globalization and integration among financial markets.

Determinants of government consumption expenditure in developing countries : a panel data analysis

The paper focuses on the recent pattern of government consumption expenditure in developing countries and estimates the determinants which have influenced government expenditure. Using a panel data set for 111 developing countries from 1984 to 2004, this study finds evidence that political and institutional variables as well as governance variables significantly influence government expenditure. Among other results, the paper finds new evidence of Wagner's law which states that peoples' demand for service and willingness to pay is income-elastic hence the expansion of public economy is influenced by the greater economic affluence of a nation (Cameron1978). Corruption is found to be influential in explaining the public expenditure of developing countries. On the contrary, size of the economy and fractionalization are found to have significant negative association with government expenditure. In addition, the study finds evidence that public expenditure significantly shrinks under military dictatorship compared with other form of governance.

Eficiência energética na iluminação pública

O presente trabalho aborda a temática da eficiência energética em sistemas de iluminação pública. A principal motivação prende-se com o peso significativo que a parcela energética destes sistemas ocupa na economia mundial. O uso eficiente de energia é uma crescente preocupação devido à diminuição de recursos, às consequências climáticas cada vez mais marcadas e ao elevado custo da energia, representando ainda um papel fundamental ao nível económico e de competitividade. A Iluminação Pública (IP) representa um peso importante nas despesas correntes dos municípios. É assim importante encontrar uma solução que permita manter níveis de segurança e conforto necessários às populações e que proporcione uma redução substancial do peso da IP nas despesas municipais. Neste sentido, este trabalho propõe-se estudar esta problemática, apresentando uma sistematização de soluções eficientes, quer a nível de lâmpadas e luminárias como também ao nível de tecnologias que auxiliem e complementem a eficiência de uma instalação de iluminação pública. A dissertação está dividida em duas partes. A primeira parte sistematiza os consumos verificados em Portugal, a vários níveis (consumo de energia elétrica, evolução do consumo energético de iluminação pública, etc.) abordando as políticas de eficiência energética, e são descritos alguns procedimentos que possibilitam a poupança energética na iluminação pública, aliada a instalações eficientes. A segunda parte da dissertação contempla o estudo de um caso prático cujo objetivo é propor soluções técnicas que permitam melhorar a eficiência energética na iluminação pública de Esposende, face à situação atual do concelho. Serão propostas várias soluções, tais como luminárias LED, balastros electrónicos reguláveis, lâmpadas de menor consumo e até mesmo o uso da telegestão.

Política fiscal e crescimento económico

Os recentes desenvolvimentos da teoria do crescimento económico sugerem que a política fiscal pode ter efeitos importantes no crescimento económico de longo prazo. O objectivo deste artigo é investigar o impacto da política fiscal no crescimento económico de longo prazo, utilizando dados em painel para os Estados-membros da UE15 (com excepção de Luxemburgo), no período 1965-2000. Partindo do enquadramento teórico de Barro (1990), formula-se um modelo onde a taxa de crescimento real é determinada por variáveis das finanças públicas, esperando que a redução de impostos distorcionários e o aumento de despesas públicas produtivas fomentem o crescimento económico. No caso da UE15, os resultados sugerem que o aumento da dimensão do sector público (despesas ou impostos) retarda o crescimento e, em particular, uma redução dos impostos sobre o trabalho e o capital podem acelerar o crescimento económico de longo prazo.

An RBC model with a rich fiscal sector

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Majoritarian delays

This paper illustrates how delayed debt stabilizations can arise in a society without any emerging conflict of interests among its members. We argue that, under a majority voting rule, the economy may generate excessive levels of government spending and larger debts over time, and that this delay is increasing in income inequality. The intuition for this result is simple: a majority of citizens may find in delaying stabilizations a way to increase government expenditures, transferring in this way resources from the richest to the poorest citizens in the economy. This process may explain the upward trend and the difficulty to reduce public expenditures, the so called "ratchet effect."

Fatores políticos e institucionais nas teorias contemporâneas sobre a expansão dos gastos públicos

This paper discusses the role of the political and institutional factors in the contemporary theories on the growth of government expenditures. Based on a comparative analysis of studies produced in the two last decades on the field of political economy, the analysis attempts to deal with the main assumptions, the types of explanation, and the causal status of political and institutional variables provided by these theories. The theories are classified according to the type of explanation and the causal primacy of different political and institutional variables in each model.

Política fiscal anticíclica, crise financeira internacional e crescimento econômico no Brasil

This study analyzes the long run equilibrium relationship and causality between economic growth and public expenditure in Brazil covering the period 1980-2008. The empirical results of the Granger causality test in a multivariate framework have shown up the importance of public investments not only to face the adverse effects of the international financial crisis, but also in stimulating the economic growth. Also, the results indicate the need of controlling the growing path of other current expenditure, social security and public debt.