Good genes and good luck: Ammonoid diversity and the end-Permian mass extinction

The end-Permian mass extinction removed more than 80% of marine genera. Ammonoid cephalopods were among the organisms most affected by this crisis. The analysis of a global diversity data set of ammonoid genera covering about 106 million years centered on the Permian-Triassic boundary (PTB) shows that Triassic ammonoids actually reached levels of diversity higher than in the Permian less than 2 million years after the PTB. The data favor a hierarchical rather than logistic model of diversification coupled with a niche incumbency hypothesis. This explosive and nondelayed diversification contrasts with the slow and delayed character of the Triassic biotic recovery as currently illustrated for other, mainly benthic groups such as bivalves and gastropods.

La controverse avant le film : quelle politique pour Good Night, And Good Luck ?

This article aims to explain how newspapers commented on the movie Good Night, and Good Luck before its release. The media coverage anticipated George Clooney's film as a partisan attack launched against George W. Bush's policy since 9/11. Clooney advocates another reading: the historic confrontation between journalist Edward Murrow and Senator Joseph McCarty permits to reflect on the crucial role that the media play for democracy. Such reflection tries to prevent the dividing of the public sphere into antagonistic camps opposing "friends" to "foes," a division that undermines the possibility of a true pluralism. Our socio-semiotic analysis will focus on the critical work accomplished by the media, and on the way that work determines the collective meaning of a cultural object. Simultaneously, we will discuss the necessary conditions for pluralism in a public sphere.

More than just Good Luck. How to Explain the Success of Monte Carlo Simulations

Monte Carlo simulation is a powerful method in many natural and social sciences. But what sort of method is it? And where does its power come from? Are Monte Carlo simulations experiments, theories or something else? The aim of this talk is to answer these questions and to explain the power of Monte Carlo simulations. I provide a classification of Monte Carlo techniques and defend the claim that Monte Carlo simulation is a sort of inference.

An Empirical Assessment of Optimal Monetary Policy Delegation in the Euro Area

We estimate a New Keynesian DSGE model for the Euro area under alternative descriptions of monetary policy (discretion, commitment or a simple rule) after allowing for Markov switching in policy maker preferences and shock volatilities. This reveals that there have been several changes in Euro area policy making, with a strengthening of the anti-inflation stance in the early years of the ERM, which was then lost around the time of German reunification and only recovered following the turnoil in the ERM in 1992. The ECB does not appear to have been as conservative as aggregate Euro-area policy was under Bundesbank leadership, and its response to the financial crisis has been muted. The estimates also suggest that the most appropriate description of policy is that of discretion, with no evidence of commitment in the Euro-area. As a result although both ‘good luck’ and ‘good policy’ played a role in the moderation of inflation and output volatility in the Euro-area, the welfare gains would have been substantially higher had policy makers been able to commit. We consider a range of delegation schemes as devices to improve upon the discretionary outcome, and conclude that price level targeting would have achieved welfare levels close to those attained under commitment, even after accounting for the existence of the Zero Lower Bound on nominal interest rates.

An Empirical Assessment of Optimal Monetary Policy Delegation in the Euro Area

We estimate a New Keynesian DSGE model for the Euro area under alternative descriptions of monetary policy (discretion, commitment or a simple rule) after allowing for Markov switching in policy maker preferences and shock volatilities. This reveals that there have been several changes in Euro area policy making, with a strengthening of the anti-inflation stance in the early years of the ERM, which was then lost around the time of German reunification and only recovered following the turnoil in the ERM in 1992. The ECB does not appear to have been as conservative as aggregate Euro-area policy was under Bundesbank leadership, and its response to the financial crisis has been muted. The estimates also suggest that the most appropriate description of policy is that of discretion, with no evidence of commitment in the Euro-area. As a result although both ‘good luck’ and ‘good policy’ played a role in the moderation of inflation and output volatility in the Euro-area, the welfare gains would have been substantially higher had policy makers been able to commit. We consider a range of delegation schemes as devices to improve upon the discretionary outcome, and conclude that price level targeting would have achieved welfare levels close to those attained under commitment, even after accounting for the existence of the Zero Lower Bound on nominal interest rates.

A fractionally integrated approach to monetary policy and inflation dynamics

This paper relaxes the standard I(0) and I(1) assumptions typically stated in the monetary VAR literature by considering a richer framework that encompasses the previous two processes as well as other fractionally integrated possibilities. First, a timevarying multivariate spectrum is estimated for post WWII US data. Then, a structural fractionally integrated VAR (VARFIMA) is fitted to each of the resulting time dependent spectra. In this way, both the coefficients of the VAR and the innovation variances are allowed to evolve freely. The model is employed to analyze inflation persistence and to evaluate the stance of US monetary policy. Our findings indicate a strong decline in the innovation variances during the great disinflation, consistent with the view that the good performance of the economy during the 80’s and 90’s is in part a tale of good luck. However, we also find evidence of a decline in inflation persistence together with a stronger monetary response to inflation during the same period. This last result suggests that the Fed may still play a role in accounting for the observed differences in the US inflation history. Finally, we conclude that previous evidence against drifting coefficients could be an artifact of parameter restriction towards the stationary region. Keywords: monetary policy, inflation persistence, fractional integration, timevarying coefficients, VARFIMA. JEL Classification: E52, C32

On the sources of the Great Moderation

The remarkable decline in macroeconomic volatility experienced by the U.S. economy since the mid-80s (the so-called Great Moderation) has been accompanied by large changes in the patterns of comovements among output, hours and labor productivity. Those changes are reflected in both conditional and unconditional second moments as well as in the impulse responses to identified shocks. That evidencepoints to structural change, as opposed to just good luck, as an explanation for the Great Moderation. We use a simple macro model to suggest some of the immediate sources which are likely to be behindthe observed changes.

The macroeconomic effects of oil price shocks: Why are the 2000s so different from the 1970s?

We characterize the macroeconomic performance of a set of industrialized economies in the aftermath of the oil price shocks of the 1970s and of the last decade, focusing on the differences across episodes. We examine four different hypotheses for the mild effects on inflation and economic activity of the recent increase in the price of oil: (a) good luck (i.e. lack of concurrent adverse shocks), (b) smaller share of oil in production, (c) more flexible labor markets, and (d) improvements in monetary policy. Weconclude that all four have played an important role.

Letter - Lieut A. Watson Sime to Col. F.C. McCordick

A letter from Lieut. A. Watson to Col. F.C. McCordick dated only July 3rd. The letter reads "My dear Col. McCordick, If you haven't already heard, you will be surprised to get this letter from me - in Germany. It happened at that awful slaughter - the 3rd battle of Ypres, & even now when I think of it all, I doubt my reality of existence. Everything was O.K at 730am on the 2nd - a little morning hate in the way of trench mortars, that was all. I had just visited a few of my guns & had passed Gen.s Mercer & Williams & their aides, Lyman Gooderham and Fraser (two latter at this camp) on the way to the -- C.M.R Bn. Head Quarters when the storm broke. It last for 5 hours & by the time the Germans came over there were few left to oppose them. By a miracle, the 15 yard bay of the front line, where I was with 6 others, was not levelled like all the rest of the line & we did our best with rifle & bomb. I got a crack on the head & 3 hours later I found myself in a waterfilled shell hole. By night I tried to crawl back & through, but at dawn was caught. Am very comfortable here & glad to have company of Col. Usher, Capt. Light Bourne, Capt. Frank Park M.O. -- CMR) & about 20 other Canadians. Hope all is well with you & 35 - Good luck & best regards to all. A. Watson Sime, Lieut. Haus 62-B OFFIZIER-KRIEGSGEFANGENLAGER Gutersloh.

Letter - E.C. Schmon to Arthur A. Schmon, Monday Afternoon

The letter reads:" Dearest, How do you like this little surprise party? It is the latest way of sewing for the Red Cross - You remember I told you I was to meet Maud at two o'clock this afternoon, and we were going down to make surgical dressings? Well, thru a little misunderstanding about our meeting place, we missed each other; so I returned home. Mother thought I looked tired and insisted upon my taking a nap. I cam up to my room, and for an hour I've been trying to sleep, but "thought"(???) has prevented it. Artie dear, I have such an awful attack of the blues and while I was lying there trying to fight it, and also wishing that I knew your address - for I felt so much like writing to you, the thought came to me, that I could send a letter to you thru Chaunce, if I knew his company number. Hence - ensued a little chat with Mrs. Leake on the phone, and receiving the desired information, rushed to my desk, and - thus endeth the little tale. You are just about reaching Washington now, and I bet you are tired after that dreadfully monotonous trip. Take good care of yourself my "___"(?) Good luck, and lots of other wishes. Lovingly "Me". P.S. Write real, real soon and thank Chaunce for playing postman. L.

Gestión oriental y occidental: un acercamiento a los grandes gurues e ideas empresariales

En el presente trabajo se describen los aportes más destacados de algunos de los gurúes representativos del ámbito administrativo Oriental y Occidental. En Occidental se cuenta con el legado de Henry Ford, Philip Kotler, Frederick Winslow Taylor, Henry Fayol, Michael Porter, Peter Drucker y Steve Jobs. En Oriente, los gurúes son Akio Morita, Edwards Deming, Kaoru Ishikawa, Familia Toyoda, Masaaki Imai y Taiichi Ohno. A partir de ello, se hacen comparaciones entre las tendencias de administración de cada cultura y entre los gurúes. Seguido, se comentan aspectos importantes de Mc Donald’s y Samsung, en cuanto a sus modelos de gestión y su adaptación en un mundo globalizado.

Brands cho(a)mping at the bit for a piece of Suarez social media action

If you’re a fan of soccer, brands, or social media you’ve been inundated online the past 24 hours. Uruguay’s World Cup forward Luis Suarez apparently bit another player before they defeated the Italian team during their final group game on Tuesday. This is his third biting offense. Good luck with those disciplinary hearings FIFA.

A gramaticalização da conjunção concessiva embora

Pós-graduação em Estudos Linguísticos - IBILCE

Is the Great Moderation Ending? UK and US Evidence

The Great Moderation, the significant decline in the variability of economic activity, provides a most remarkable feature of the macroeconomic landscape in the last twenty years. A number of papers document the beginning of the Great Moderation in the US and the UK. In this paper, we use the Markov regime-switching models of Hamilton (1989) and Hamilton and Susmel (1994) to document the end of the Great Moderation. The Great Moderation in the US and the UK begin at different point in time. The explanations for the Great Moderation fall into generally three different categories -- good monetary policy, improved inventory management, or good luck. Summers (2005) argues that a combination of good monetary policy and better inventory management led to the Great Moderation. The end of the Great Moderation, however, occurs at approximately the same time in both the US and the UK. It seems unlikely that good monetary policy would turn into bad policy or that better inventory management would turn into worse management. Rather, the likely explanation comes from bad luck. Two likely culprits exist . energy-price and housing-price shocks.