GCM-data intercomparison: the good news and the bad

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): General circulation models (GCMs) are probably the most sophisticated theoretical tools we have to simulate possible climatic effects of increasing carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. ... As will be illustrated here using a variety of examples, although the models do simulate "reality" very well on the "grand" scale (e.g., global, hemispheric, zonal), substantial differences are more apparent as the scale is reduced to areas particularly relevant to regional planners. It is particularly important that workers more clearly recognize the potential dangers in relying too heavily on simple summary statistics such as averages estimated over large regional scales. Many shortcomings are apparent in the model simulations of the present climate, indicating that further model improvements are needed to achieve reliable regional and seasonal projections of the future climatic conditions.

Good news-bad news:the Yin and Yang of immune privilege in the eye

The eye and the brain are prototypical tissues manifesting immune privilege (IP) in which immune responses to foreign antigens, particularly alloantigens are suppressed, and even completely inhibited. Explanations for this phenomenon are numerous and mostly reflect our evolving understanding of the molecular and cellular processes underpinning immunological responses generally. IP is now viewed as a property of many tissues and the level of expression of IP varies not only with the tissue but with the nature of the foreign antigen and changes in the limited conditions under which privilege can operate as a mechanism of immunological tolerance. As a result, IP functions normally as a homeostatic mechanism preserving normal function in tissues, particularly those with highly specialized function and limited capacity for renewal such as the eye and brain. However, IP is relatively easily bypassed in the face of a sufficiently strong immunological response, and the privileged tissues may be at greater risk of collateral damage because its natural defenses are more easily breached than in a fully immunocompetent tissue which rapidly rejects foreign antigen and restores integrity. This two-edged sword cuts its swathe through the eye: under most circumstances, IP mechanisms such as blood-ocular barriers, intraocular immune modulators, induction of T regulatory cells, lack of lymphatics, and other properties maintain tissue integrity; however, when these are breached, various degrees of tissue damage occur from severe tissue destruction in retinal viral infections and other forms of uveoretinal inflammation, to less severe inflammatory responses in conditions such as macular degeneration. Conversely, ocular IP and tumor-related IP can combine to permit extensive tumor growth and increased risk of metastasis thus threatening the survival of the host.

Sharing good NEWS across the world: developing comparable scores across 12 countries for the neighborhood environment walkability scale (NEWS)

Background: The IPEN (International Physical Activity and Environment Network) Adult project seeks to conduct pooled analyses of associations of perceived neighborhood environment, as measured by the neighborhood Environment Walkability Scale (NEWS) and its abbreviated version (NEWS-A), with physical activity using data from 12 countries. As IPEN countries used adapted versions of the NEWS/NEWS-A, this paper aimed to develop scoring protocols that maximize cross-country comparability in responses. This information is also highly relevant to non-IPEN studies employing the NEWS/NEWS-A, which is one of the most popular measures of perceived environment globally.
Methods: The following countries participated in the IPEN Adult study: Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Colombia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Hong Kong, Mexico, New Zealand, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Participants (N = 14,305) were recruited from neighborhoods varying in walkability and socio-economic status. Countries collected data on the perceived environment using a self- or interviewer-administered version of the NEWS/NEWS-A. Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) was used to derive comparable country-specific measurement models of the NEWS/NEWS-A. The level of correspondence between standard and alternative versions of the NEWS/NEWS-A factor-analyzable subscales was determined by estimating the correlations and mean standardized difference (Cohen’s d) between them using data from countries that had included items from both standard and alternative versions of the subscales.
Results: Final country-specific measurement models of the NEWS/NEWS-A provided acceptable levels of fit to the data and shared the same factorial structure with six latent factors and two single items. The correspondence between the standard and alternative versions of subscales of Land use mix – access, Infrastructure and safety for walking/cycling, and Aesthetics was high. The Brazilian version of the Traffic safety subscale was highly, while the Australian and Belgian versions were marginally, comparable to the standard version. Single-item versions of the Street connectivity subscale used in Australia and Belgium showed marginally acceptable correspondence to the standard version.
Conclusions: We have proposed country-specific modifications to the original scoring protocol of the NEWS/NEWS-A that enhance inter-country comparability. These modifications have yielded sufficiently equivalent measurement models of the NEWS/NEWS-A. Some inter-country discrepancies remain. These need to be considered when interpreting findings from different countries.

The good news about television: attitudes aren't getting worse: tracking public attitudes toward TV advertising

Periodically tracking public sentiment toward television advertising (TVA) is an important barometer for the advertising industry and its myriad stakeholders. To date, however, most studies of consumers’ attitudes to TVA have been cross-sectional. This study, alternatively, provides a quasi-longitudinal examination of Australian attitudes toward TVA across four time points (2002, 2005, 2008, and 2010). Findings suggest that although attitudes toward TVA are generally negative, in fact they have not deteriorated over time. Considerable scope consequently exists for improving consumer attitudes toward TVA.

No news is not good news: evidence from the intra-day return volatility–volume relationship in Shanghai Stock Exchange

Through this research, we find that the asymmetric volatility phenomenon is reversed in the Shanghai Stock Exchange during bull markets. That is, volatility increases more with good news than with bad news. This evidence is inconsistent with the US markets. Further examination of this phenomenon reveals that the positive impact of good news on volatility is driven by the return-chasing behaviour of investors during bull markets. We also find that volatility increases after stock price declines in bear markets. After controlling for liquidity shifts, we observe similar patterns in volatility in both bull and bear markets. We posit that institutional and behavioural factors are the major driving forces of observed volatility patterns in the Chinese stock market.

The October 2015 European Council and migration: no news, good news? EPC Commentary, 19 October 2015

The October European Council meeting took place after an unprecedented sequence of actions, with the Luxembourgish Presidency, the European Commission and the Council adopting and proposing a series of legislative and operational measures (including inter alia relocation decisions, the establishment of “hotspots”, increasing funds, the modification of the Dublin rules and the adoption of safe country of origins lists) to address the refugee crisis. Some of these measures were on the European Council agenda, such as the future of the Dublin system, the role of “hotspots” and the strengthening of the external borders. However, the meeting did not go as planned, with some items being dropped off the agenda and replaced by other ones.