Cost-efficient one-part alkali-activated mortars with low global warming potential for floor heating systems applications

Increasing building energy efficiency is one the most cost-effective ways to reduce emissions. The use of thermal insulation materials mitigates heat loss in buildings, therefore minimising heat energy needs. In recent years, several papers were published on the subject of foam alkali-activated cements with enhanced thermal conductivity. However, on those papers cost analysis was strangely avoided. This paper presents experimental results on one-part alkali-activated cements. It also includes global warming potential assessment and cost analysis. Foam one-part alkali-activated cements cost simulations considering two carbon dioxide social costs scenarios are also included. The results show that one-part alkali-activated cements mixtures based on 26%OPC + 58.3%FA + 8%CS + 7.7%CH and 3.5% hydrogen peroxide constitute a promising cost-efficient (67 euro/m3), thermal insulation solution for floor heating systems. This mixture presents a low global warming potential of 443 KgCO2eq/m3. The results confirm that in both carbon dioxide social cost scenarios the mixture 26 OPC + 58.3 FA + 8 CS + 7.7 CH with 3.5% hydrogen peroxide foaming agent is still the most cost efficient.

Revised IR spectrum, radiative efficiency and global warming potential of nitrogen trifluoride

Nitrogen trifluoride (NF3) is an industrial gas used in the semiconductor industry as a plasma etchant and chamber cleaning gas. NF3 is an alternative to other potent greenhouse gases and its usage has increased markedly over the last decade. In recognition of its increased relevance and to aid planning of future usage we report an updated radiative efficiency and global warming potentials for NF3. Laboratory measurements give an integrated absorption cross section of 7.04 x 10(-17) cm(2) molecule(-1) cm(-1) over the spectral region 200 2000 cm(-1). The radiative efficiency is calculated to be 0.21 Wm(-2) ppbv(-1) and the 100 year GWP, relative to carbon dioxide, is 17200. These values are approximately 60% higher than previously published estimates, primarily reflecting the higher infrared absorption cross-sections reported here.

Perfluorodecalin: global warming potential and first detection in the atmosphere

Perfluorodecalin (C10F18) has a range of medical uses that have led to small releases. Recently, it has been proposed as a carrier of vaccines, which could lead to significantly larger emissions. Since its emissions are controlled under the Kyoto Protocol, it is important that values for the global warming potential (GWP) are available. For a 50:50 mixture of the two isomers of perfluorodecalin, laboratory measurements, supplemented by theoretical calculations, give an integrated absorption cross-section of 3.91 x 10(-16) cm(2) molecule(-1) cm(-1) over the spectral region 0-1500 cm(-1); calculations yield a radiative efficiency of 0.56 W m(-2) ppbv(-1) and a 100-year GWP, relative to carbon dioxide, of 7200 assuming a lifetime of 1000 years. We report the first atmospheric measurements of perfluorodecalin, at Bristol, UK and Mace Head, Ireland, where volume mixing ratios are about 1.5 x 10(-15). At these concentrations, it makes a trivial contribution to climate change, but on a per molecule basis it is a potent greenhouse gas, indicating the need for careful assessment of its possible future usage. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The indirect global warming potential and global temperature change potential due to methane oxidation

Methane is the second most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas in the atmosphere next to carbon dioxide. Its global warming potential (GWP) for a time horizon of 100 years is 25, which makes it an attractive target for climate mitigation policies. Although the methane GWP traditionally includes the methane indirect effects on the concentrations of ozone and stratospheric water vapour, it does not take into account the production of carbon dioxide from methane oxidation. We argue here that this CO2-induced effect should be included for fossil sources of methane, which results in slightly larger GWP values for all time horizons. If the global temperature change potential is used as an alternative climate metric, then the impact of the CO2-induced effect is proportionally much larger. We also discuss what the correction term should be for methane from anthropogenic biogenic sources.

Identifying strategies for mitigating the global warming impact of the EU-25 economy using a multi-objective input-output approach

Global warming mitigation has recently become a priority worldwide. A large body of literature dealing with energy related problems has focused on reducing greenhouse gases emissions at an engineering scale. In contrast, the minimization of climate change at a wider macroeconomic level has so far received much less attention. We investigate here the issue of how to mitigate global warming by performing changes in an economy. To this end, we make use of a systematic tool that combines three methods: linear programming, environmentally extended input output models, and life cycle assessment principles. The problem of identifying key economic sectors that contribute significantly to global warming is posed in mathematical terms as a bi criteria linear program that seeks to optimize simultaneously the total economic output and the total life cycle CO2 emissions. We have applied this approach to the European Union economy, finding that significant reductions in global warming potential can be attained by regulating specific economic sectors. Our tool is intended to aid policymakers in the design of more effective public policies for achieving the environmental and economic targets sought.

Radiative efficiencies for fluorinated esters: indirect global warming potentials of hydrofluoroethers

Density Functional Theory (DFT) has been used with an empirically-derived correction for the wavenumbers of vibrational band positions to predict the infrared spectra of several fluorinated esters (FESs). Radiative efficiencies (REs) were then determined using the method of Pinnock et al. and these were used with atmospheric lifetimes from the literature to determine the direct global warming potentials of FESs. FESs, in particular fluoroalkylacetates, alkylfluoroacetates and fluoroalkylformates, are potential greenhouse gases and their likely long atmospheric lifetimes and relatively large REs, compared to their parent HFEs, make them active contributors to global warming. Here, we use the concept of indirect global warming potential (indirect GWP) to assess the contribution to the warming of several commonly used HFEs emitted from the Earth's surface, explicitly taking into account that these HFEs will be converted into the corresponding FESs in the troposphere. The indirect GWP can be calculated using the radiative efficiencies and lifetimes of the HFE and its degradation FES products. We found that the GWPs of those studied HFEs which have the smallest direct GWP can be increased by 100-1600% when taking account of the cumulative effect due to the secondary FESs formed during HFE atmospheric oxidation. This effect may be particularly important for non-segregated HFEs and some segregated HFEs, which may contribute significantly more to global warming than can be concluded from examination of their direct GWPs.

Radiative forcing and global warming potentials of 11 halogenated compounds

Radiative forcing values have been calculated for 11 halogenated compounds which are in current use or which have been suggested as possible replacements for the chlorofluorocarbons. Absorption cross-sections measured over a range of atmospheric temperature and pressure conditions as part of a multi-laboratory programme have been used together with a narrow band radiative transfer model. We provide a “best estimate” radiative forcing taking into account the likely vertical profile of the gas in each case. The Global Warming Potential over a variety of time horizons has also been calculated where the lifetime is available. We present the first such information for 1,2-dichloroethane. For chloroform our radiative forcing is 5 times higher than the value used in previous assessments, possibly because these ignored the effect of absorption outside the 800–1200 cm−1 “window”. For several of the other compounds considered here, our forcing is between 10 and 30% lower than previous assessments. The perfluorocarbons have been found to have large global warming potentials, many times that of CFC-11, due to both strong absorption and long lifetimes. The importance of absorption features at wavenumbers below 800 cm−1 and the effect of temperature variations in absorption cross-section on the radiative forcing are also investigated.

New use of global warming potentials to compare cumulative and short-lived climate pollutants

Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) have requested guidance on common greenhouse gas metrics in accounting for Nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to emission reductions1. Metric choice can affect the relative emphasis placed on reductions of ‘cumulative climate pollutants’ such as carbon dioxide versus ‘short-lived climate pollutants’ (SLCPs), including methane and black carbon2, 3, 4, 5, 6. Here we show that the widely used 100-year global warming potential (GWP100) effectively measures the relative impact of both cumulative pollutants and SLCPs on realized warming 20–40 years after the time of emission. If the overall goal of climate policy is to limit peak warming, GWP100 therefore overstates the importance of current SLCP emissions unless stringent and immediate reductions of all climate pollutants result in temperatures nearing their peak soon after mid-century7, 8, 9, 10, which may be necessary to limit warming to “well below 2 °C” (ref. 1). The GWP100 can be used to approximately equate a one-off pulse emission of a cumulative pollutant and an indefinitely sustained change in the rate of emission of an SLCP11, 12, 13. The climate implications of traditional CO2-equivalent targets are ambiguous unless contributions from cumulative pollutants and SLCPs are specified separately.

Potential of local bio-geoengineering to mitigate dangerous temperature increases in a global warming scenario

Crops and forests are already responding to rising atmospheric carbon dioxide and air temperatures. Increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations are expected to enhance plant photosynthesis. Nevertheless, after long-term exposure, plants acclimate and show a reduction in photosynthetic activity (i.e. down-regulation). If in the future the Earth"s temperature is allowed to rise further, plant ecosystems and food security will both face significant threats. The scientific community has recognized that an increase in global temperatures should remain below 2°C in order to combat climate change. All this evidence suggests that, in parallel with reductions in CO2 emissions, a more direct approach to mitigate global warming should be considered. We propose here that global warming could be partially mitigated directly through local bio-geoengineering approaches. For example, this could be done through the management of solar radiation at surface level, i.e. by increasing global albedo. Such an effect has been documented in the south-eastern part of Spain, where a significant surface air temperature trend of -0.3°C per decade has been observed due to a dramatic expansion of greenhouse horticulture.

Potential of local bio-geoengineering to mitigate dangerous temperature increases in a global warming scenario

Crops and forests are already responding to rising atmospheric carbon dioxide and air temperatures. Increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations are expected to enhance plant photosynthesis. Nevertheless, after long-term exposure, plants acclimate and show a reduction in photosynthetic activity (i.e. down-regulation). If in the future the Earth"s temperature is allowed to rise further, plant ecosystems and food security will both face significant threats. The scientific community has recognized that an increase in global temperatures should remain below 2°C in order to combat climate change. All this evidence suggests that, in parallel with reductions in CO2 emissions, a more direct approach to mitigate global warming should be considered. We propose here that global warming could be partially mitigated directly through local bio-geoengineering approaches. For example, this could be done through the management of solar radiation at surface level, i.e. by increasing global albedo. Such an effect has been documented in the south-eastern part of Spain, where a significant surface air temperature trend of -0.3°C per decade has been observed due to a dramatic expansion of greenhouse horticulture.

Forecasting the effects of global warming on biodiversity

The demand for accurate forecasting of the effects of global warming on biodiversity is growing, but current methods for forecasting have limitations. in this article, we compare and discuss the different uses of four forecasting methods: (1) models that consider species individually, (2) niche-theory models that group species by habitat (more specifically, by environmental conditions under which a species can persist or does persist), (3) general circulation models and coupled ocean-atmosphere-biosphere models, and (4) specics-area curve models that consider all species or large aggregates of species. After outlining the different uses and limitations of these methods, we make eight primary suggestions for improving forecasts. We find that greater use of the fossil record and of modern genetic studies would improve forecasting methods. We note a Quaternary conundrum: While current empirical and theoretical ecological results suggest that many species could be at risk from global warming, during the recent ice ages surprisingly few species became extinct. The potential resolution of this conundrum gives insights into the requirements for more accurate and reliable forecasting. Our eight suggestions also point to constructive synergies in the solution to the different problems.

Individuals' (re-)action in the face of global warming

Climate change remains a major challenge for today’s and future societies due to its immense impacts on human lives and the natural environment. This thesis investigates the extent to which individuals are willing and prepared to voluntarily contribute to climate protection and to adjust to new climatic conditions in order to cope with the consequences of climate change and reduce the severity of potential negative impacts. The thesis thereby combines research in the fields of the private provision of environmental public goods and adaptation to climate change, which is still widely unconnected in the existing literature. The six contributions of this thesis mainly focus on microeconometric analyses using data from international surveys in China, Germany, and the USA. The main findings are: (i) A substantial share of individuals is willing to voluntarily contribute to climate protection and to adapt to climatic change. The engagement in both strategies is positively interrelated at the individual level and the analyses reveal hardly any evidence that adaptation activities crowd out individuals’ incentives to engage in climate protection. (ii) The main determinants of individuals’ adaptation activities seem to be the subjective risk perception as well as socio-economic and socio-demographic characteristics like age, gender, education, and income, while their climate protection efforts are found to be broadly motivated by financial advantages from these activities and additional immaterial benefits. (iii) The empirical findings also suggest a significantly positive relationship between certain climate protection activities. Substitutions are found to occur merely if one measure is perceived to be more effective in providing climate protection or if individuals have high environmental preferences. (iv) This thesis further reveals a common understanding of a (normatively) fair burden-sharing in international climate policy across citizens in China, Germany, and the USA. The highest preferences are found for the accountability principle.

Simulating the impacts of global warming on wheat in China using a large area crop model

Temperature is one of the most prominent environmental factors that determine plant growth, devel- opment, and yield. Cool and moist conditions are most favorable for wheat. Wheat is likely to be highly vulnerable to further warming because currently the temperature is already close to or above optimum. In this study, the impacts of warming and extreme high temperature stress on wheat yield over China were investigated by using the general large area model (GLAM) for annual crops. The results showed that each 1±C rise in daily mean temperature would reduce the average wheat yield in China by about 4.6%{5.7% mainly due to the shorter growth duration, except for a small increase in yield at some grid cells. When the maximum temperature exceeded 30.5±C, the simulated grain-set fraction declined from 1 at 30.5±C to close to 0 at about 36±C. When the total grain-set was lower than the critical fractional grain-set (0.575{0.6), harvest index and potential grain yield were reduced. In order to reduce the negative impacts of warming, it is crucial to take serious actions to adapt to the climate change, for example, by shifting sowing date, adjusting crop distribution and structure, breeding heat-resistant varieties, and improving the monitoring, forecasting, and early warning of extreme climate events.