Global response sensitivity analysis using probability distance measures and generalization of Sobol's analysis

The study introduces two new alternatives for global response sensitivity analysis based on the application of the L-2-norm and Hellinger's metric for measuring distance between two probabilistic models. Both the procedures are shown to be capable of treating dependent non-Gaussian random variable models for the input variables. The sensitivity indices obtained based on the L2-norm involve second order moments of the response, and, when applied for the case of independent and identically distributed sequence of input random variables, it is shown to be related to the classical Sobol's response sensitivity indices. The analysis based on Hellinger's metric addresses variability across entire range or segments of the response probability density function. The measure is shown to be conceptually a more satisfying alternative to the Kullback-Leibler divergence based analysis which has been reported in the existing literature. Other issues addressed in the study cover Monte Carlo simulation based methods for computing the sensitivity indices and sensitivity analysis with respect to grouped variables. Illustrative examples consist of studies on global sensitivity analysis of natural frequencies of a random multi-degree of freedom system, response of a nonlinear frame, and safety margin associated with a nonlinear performance function. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Global response sensitivity analysis of uncertain structures

The problem of characterizing global sensitivity indices of structural response when system uncertainties are represented using probabilistic and (or) non-probabilistic modeling frameworks (which include intervals, convex functions, and fuzzy variables) is considered. These indices are characterized in terms of distance measures between a fiducial model in which uncertainties in all the pertinent variables are taken into account and a family of hypothetical models in which uncertainty in one or more selected variables are suppressed. The distance measures considered include various probability distance measures (Hellinger,l(2), and the Kantorovich metrics, and the Kullback-Leibler divergence) and Hausdorff distance measure as applied to intervals and fuzzy variables. Illustrations include studies on an uncertainly parametered building frame carrying uncertain loads. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Global Response Sensitivity Analysis of Randomly Excited Dynamic Structures

The response of structural dynamical systems excited by multiple random excitations is considered. Two new procedures for evaluating global response sensitivity measures with respect to the excitation components are proposed. The first procedure is valid for stationary response of linear systems under stationary random excitations and is based on the notion of Hellinger's metric of distance between two power spectral density functions. The second procedure is more generally valid and is based on the l2 norm based distance measure between two probability density functions. Specific cases which admit exact solutions are presented, and solution procedures based on Monte Carlo simulations for more general class of problems are outlined. Illustrations include studies on a parametrically excited linear system and a nonlinear random vibration problem involving moving oscillator-beam system that considers excitations attributable to random support motions and guide-way unevenness. (C) 2015 American Society of Civil Engineers.

The global response to tropical heating in the Madden-Julian oscillation during the northern winter

A life cycle of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) was constructed, based on 21 years of outgoing long-wave radiation data. Regression maps of NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data for the northern winter show statistically significant upper-tropospheric equatorial wave patterns linked to the tropical convection anomalies, and extratropical wave patterns over the North Pacific, North America, the Atlantic, the Southern Ocean and South America. To assess the cause of the circulation anomalies, a global primitive-equation model was initialized with the observed three-dimensional (3D) winter climatological mean flow and forced with a time-dependent heat source derived from the observed MJO anomalies. A model MJO cycle was constructed from the global response to the heating, and both the tropical and extratropical circulation anomalies generally matched the observations well. The equatorial wave patterns are established in a few days, while it takes approximately two weeks for the extratropical patterns to appear. The model response is robust and insensitive to realistic changes in damping and basic state. The model tropical anomalies are consistent with a forced equatorial Rossby–Kelvin wave response to the tropical MJO heating, although it is shifted westward by approximately 20° longitude relative to observations. This may be due to a lack of damping processes (cumulus friction) in the regions of convective heating. Once this shift is accounted for, the extratropical response is consistent with theories of Rossby wave forcing and dispersion on the climatological flow, and the pattern correlation between the observed and modelled extratropical flow is up to 0.85. The observed tropical and extratropical wave patterns account for a significant fraction of the intraseasonal circulation variance, and this reproducibility as a response to tropical MJO convection has implications for global medium-range weather prediction. Copyright © 2004 Royal Meteorological Society

Acoustic response of vortex breakdown modes in a coaxial isothermal unconfined swirling jet

The present experimental work is concerned with the study of amplitude dependent acoustic response of an isothermal coaxial swirling jet. The excitation amplitude is increased in five distinct steps at the burner's Helmholtz resonator mode (i.e., 100 Hz). Two flow states are compared, namely, sub-critical and super-critical vortex breakdown (VB) that occur before and after the critical conical sheet breakdown, respectively. The geometric swirl number is varied in the range 2.14-4.03. Under the influence of external pulsing, global response characteristics are studied based on the topological changes observed in time-averaged 2D flow field. These are obtained from high resolution 2D PIV (particle image velocimetry) in the longitudinal-mid plane. PIV results also illustrate the changes in the normalized vortex core coordinates (r(vcc)/(r(vcc))(0) (Hz), y(vcc)/(y(vcc))(0) (Hz)) of internal recirculation zone (IRZ). A strong forced response is observed at 100 Hz (excitation frequency) in the convectively unstable region which get amplified based on the magnitude of external forcing. The radial extent of this forced response region at a given excitation amplitude is represented by the acoustic response region (b). The topological placement of the responsive convectively unstable region is a function of both the intensity of imparted swirl (characterized by swirl number) and forcing amplitude. It is observed that for sub-critical VB mode, an increase in the excitation amplitude till a critical value shifts the vortex core centre (particularly, the vortex core moves downstream and radially outwards) leading to drastic fanning-out/widening of the IRZ. This is accompanied by similar to 30% reduction in the recirculation velocity of the IRZ. It is also observed that b < R (R: radial distance from central axis to outer shear layer-OSL). At super-critical amplitudes, the sub-critical IRZ topology transits back (the vortex core retracts upstream and radially inwards) and finally undergoes a transverse shrinkage ((r(vcc))/(r(vcc))(0 Hz) decreases by similar to 20%) when b >= R. In contrast, the vortex core of super-critical breakdown mode consistently spreads radially outwards and is displaced further downstream. Finally, the IRZ fans-out at the threshold excitation amplitude. However, the acoustic response region b is still less than R. This is explained based on the characteristic geometric swirl number (S-G) of the flow regimes. The super-critical flow mode with higher S-G (hence, higher radial pressure drop due to rotational effect which scales as Delta P similar to rho u theta(2) and acts inwards towards the center line) compared to sub-critical state imposes a greater resistance to the radial outward spread of b. As a result, the acoustic energy supplied to the super-critical flow mode increases the degree of acoustic response at the pulsing frequency and energizes its harmonics (evident from power spectra). As a disturbance amplifier, the stronger convective instability mode within the flow structure of super-critical VB causes the topology to widen/fan-out severely at threshold excitation amplitude. (C) 2015 AIP Publishing LLC.

The Paediatric Rheumatology International Trials Organisation provisional criteria for the evaluation of response to therapy in juvenile dermatomyositis.

Objective To develop a provisional definition for the evaluation of response to therapy in juvenile dermatomyositis (DM) based on the Paediatric Rheumatology International Trials Organisation juvenile DM core set of variables. Methods Thirty-seven experienced pediatric rheumatologists from 27 countries achieved consensus on 128 difficult patient profiles as clinically improved or not improved using a stepwise approach (patient's rating, statistical analysis, definition selection). Using the physicians' consensus ratings as the “gold standard measure,” chi-square, sensitivity, specificity, false-positive and-negative rates, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, and kappa agreement for candidate definitions of improvement were calculated. Definitions with kappa values >0.8 were multiplied by the face validity score to select the top definitions. Results The top definition of improvement was at least 20% improvement from baseline in 3 of 6 core set variables with no more than 1 of the remaining worsening by more than 30%, which cannot be muscle strength. The second-highest scoring definition was at least 20% improvement from baseline in 3 of 6 core set variables with no more than 2 of the remaining worsening by more than 25%, which cannot be muscle strength (definition P1 selected by the International Myositis Assessment and Clinical Studies group). The third is similar to the second with the maximum amount of worsening set to 30%. This indicates convergent validity of the process. Conclusion We propose a provisional data-driven definition of improvement that reflects well the consensus rating of experienced clinicians, which incorporates clinically meaningful change in core set variables in a composite end point for the evaluation of global response to therapy in juvenile DM.

The Pediatric Rheumatology International Trials Organization American-College-of-Rheumatology provisional criteria for the evaluation of response to therapy in juvenile systemic lupus erythematosus: Prospective validation of the definition of improvement

Objective. To use the Pediatric Rheumatology International Trials Organization (PRINTO) core set of outcome measures to develop a validated definition of improvement for the evaluation of response to therapy in juvenile systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE).Methods. Thirty-seven experienced pediatric rheumatologists from 27 countries, each of whom had specific experience in the assessment of juvenile SLE patients, achieved consensus on 128 patient profiles as being clinically improved or not improved. Using the physicians' consensus ratings as the gold standard measure, the chi-square, sensitivity, specificity, false-positive and false-negative rates, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, and kappa level of agreement for 597 candidate definitions of improvement were calculated. Only definitions with a kappa value greater than 0.7 were retained. The top definitions were selected based on the product of the content validity score multiplied by its kappa statistic.Results. The definition of improvement with the highest final score was at least 50% improvement from baseline in any 2 of the 5 core set measures, with no more than 1 of the remaining worsening by more than 30%.Conclusion. PRINTO proposes a valid and reproducible definition of improvement that reflects well the consensus rating of experienced clinicians and that incorporates clinically meaningful change in core set measures in a composite end point for the evaluation of global response to therapy in patients with juvenile SLE. The definition is now proposed for use in juvenile SLE clinical trials and may help physicians to decide whether a child with SLE responded adequately to therapy.

Molecular mechanisms involved in cell response to mechanical forces

New devices were designed to generate a localized mechanical vibration of flexible gels where human umbilical vein endothelial cells (HUVECs) were cultured. The stimulation setups were able to apply relatively large strains (30%~50%) at high temporal frequencies (140~207 Hz) in a localized subcellular region. One of the advantages of this technique was to be less invasive to the innate cellular functions because there was no direct contact between the stimulating probe and the cell body. A mechanical vibration induced by the device in the substrate gel where cells were seeded could mainly cause global calcium responses of the cells. This global response was initiated by the influx of calcium across the stretch-activated channels in the plasma membrane. The subsequent production of inositol triphosphate (IP3) via phospholipase C (PLC) activation triggered the calcium release from the endoplasmic reticulum (ER) to cause a global intracellular calcium fluctuation over the whole cell body. This global calcium response was also shown to depend on actomyosin contractility and F-actin integrity, probably controlling the membrane stretch-activated channels. The localized nature of the stimulation is one of the most important features of these new designs as it allowed the observation of the calcium signaling propagation by ER calcium release. The next step was to focus on the calcium influx, more specifically the TRPM7 channels. As TRPM7 expression may modulate cell adhesion, an adhesion assay was developed and tested on HUVECs seeded on gel substrates with different treatments: normal treatment on gels showed highest attachment rate, followed by the partially treated gels (only 5% of usual fibronectin amount) and untreated gels, with the lowest attachment rate. The trend of the attachment rates correlated to the magnitude of the calcium signaling observed after mechanical stimulation. TRPM7 expression inhibition by siRNA caused an increased attachment rate when compared to both control and non-targeting siRNA-treated cells, but resulted in an actual weaker response in terms of calcium signaling. It suggests that TRPM7 channels are indeed important for the calcium signaling in response to mechanical stimulation. A complementary study was also conducted consisting in the mechanical stimulation of a dissected Drosophila embryo. Although ionomycin treatment showed calcium influx in the tissue, the mechanical stimulation delivered as a vertical vibration did not elicited calcium signaling in response. One possible reason is the dissection procedure causing desensitization of the tissue due to the scrapings and manipulations to open the embryo.

Size-dependent free flexural vibration behavior of functionally graded nanoplates

In this paper, size dependent linear free flexural vibration behavior of functionally graded (FG) nanoplates are investigated using the iso-geometric based finite element method. The field variables are approximated by non-uniform rational B-splines. The nonlocal constitutive relation is based on Eringen's differential form of nonlocal elasticity theory. The material properties are assumed to vary only in the thickness direction and the effective properties for the FG plate are computed using Mori-Tanaka homogenization scheme. The accuracy of the present formulation is demonstrated considering the problems for which solutions are available. A detailed numerical study is carried out to examine the effect of material gradient index, the characteristic internal length, the plate thickness, the plate aspect ratio and the boundary conditions on the global response of the FG nanoplate. From the detailed numerical study it is seen that the fundamental frequency decreases with increasing gradient index and characteristic internal length. (c) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Molecular/Cluster Statistical Thermodynamics Methods To Simulate Quasi-Static Deformations At Finite Temperature

The rapid evolution of nanotechnology appeals for the understanding of global response of nanoscale systems based on atomic interactions, hence necessitates novel, sophisticated, and physically based approaches to bridge the gaps between various length and time scales. In this paper, we propose a group of statistical thermodynamics methods for the simulations of nanoscale systems under quasi-static loading at finite temperature, that is, molecular statistical thermodynamics (MST) method, cluster statistical thermodynamics (CST) method, and the hybrid molecular/cluster statistical thermodynamics (HMCST) method. These methods, by treating atoms as oscillators and particles simultaneously, as well as clusters, comprise different spatial and temporal scales in a unified framework. One appealing feature of these methods is their "seamlessness" or consistency in the same underlying atomistic model in all regions consisting of atoms and clusters, and hence can avoid the ghost force in the simulation. On the other hand, compared with conventional MD simulations, their high computational efficiency appears very attractive, as manifested by the simulations of uniaxial compression and nanoindenation. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Why are we fat? Discussions on the socioeconomic dimensions and responses to obesity

This paper draws together contributions to a scientific table discussion on obesity at the European Science Open Forum 2008 which took place in Barcelona, Spain. Socioeconomic dimensions of global obesity, including those factors promoting it, those surrounding the social perceptions of obesity and those related to integral public health solutions, are discussed. It argues that although scientific accounts of obesity point to large-scale changes in dietary and physical environments, media representations of obesity, which context public policy, pre-eminently follow individualistic models of explanation. While the debate at the forum brought together a diversity of views, all the contributors agreed that this was a global issue requiring an equally global response. Furthermore, an integrated ecological model of obesity proposes that to be effective, policy will need to address not only human health but also planetary health, and that therefore, public health and environmental policies coincide.

Avaliação de ligações entre perfis tubulares em aço submetidas a esforços de flexão.

Os perfis tubulares sem costura são largamente utilizados em diversos países, porém, no Brasil, o uso desses perfis na construção civil era bastante limitado, restringindo-se praticamente a coberturas espaciais. Considerando uma nova realidade para o uso de perfis tubulares, este trabalho apresenta uma análise de ligações tipo T com perfis tubulares quadrados (SHS) para o banzo e para o montante efetuada com base na norma europeia, Eurocode 3, no CIDECT, na NBR 16239:2013 e ISO 14346 através de um modelo em elementos finitos desenvolvido no programa Ansys. Verificou-se a influência do momento atuante no montante no comportamento global das ligações. As não-linearidades físicas e geométricas foram incorporadas aos modelos, a fim de se mobilizar totalmente a capacidade resistente desta ligação. A não-linearidade do material foi considerada através do critério de plastificação de von Mises através da lei constitutiva tensão versus deformação trilinear de forma a exibir um comportamento elasto-plástico com encruamento. A nãolinearidade geométrica foi introduzida no modelo através da Formulação de Lagrange Atualizado. Os resultados numéricos são avaliados para a ligação em estudo quanto aos modos de falha e a distribuição de tensões. A análise dos momentos resistentes obtidos em comparação com os resultados do modelo numérico, apresentou valores excessivamente a favor da segurança no cálculo utilizando as equações de dimensionamento. Um estudo para fatores de correção das equações de dimensionamento é proposto.

Assessment of the immunomodulatory effects of raw/farm milk and probiotic bacteria

The overall aims of this study were to investigate the differences between raw/farm milk and pasteurised milk with respect to potential immune modifying effects following consumption and investigate the bacterial composition of raw milk compared to pasteurised milk. Furthermore, in this thesis, panels of potential probiotic bacteria from the Bifidobacterium and Lactobacillus genera were investigated. The overall bacterial composition of raw milk was compared with pasteurised milk using samples obtained from commercial milk producers around Ireland using next generation sequencing technology (454 pyrosequencing). Here the presence of previously unrecognised and diverse bacterial populations in unpasteurised cow’s milk was identified. Futhermore the bacterial content of pasteurised milk was found to be more diverse than previously thought. The global response of the adenocarcinoma cell line HT-29 to raw milk and pasteurised milk exposures were also characterised using whole genome microarray technology. Over one thousand differentially expressed genes were identified which were found to be involved in a plethora of cellular functions. Interestingly a reduction in immune related activity (e.g. Major histocompatability complex class II signalling and T and B cell proliferation) was identified in cells exposed to pasteurised milk compared with raw milk exposures. Further studies comparing human cell response to raw versus pasteurised milk was performed using peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) from healthy donors. A reduction in CD14 was identified following raw milk exposures compared with pasteurised milk and the pattern of cytokine production may indicate that gram positive bacteria in the raw milk were contributing to the differences in the cellular response to raw versus pasteurised milk. Panels of potentially probiotic bacteria (comprising of lactobacilli and bifidobacteria) were further assessed for immunomodulatory capabilities using cell culture based models. Gene expression and cytokine production were used to evaluate stimulated and unstimulated (LPS) cellular responses as well as interaction mechanisms