Short-term multinodal load forecasting in distribution systems using general regression neural networks

Multinodal load forecasting deals with the loads of several interest nodes in an electrical network system, which is also known as bus load forecasting. To perform this demand, it is necessary a technique that is precise, trustable and has a short-time processing. This paper proposes two methodologies based on general regression neural networks for short-term multinodal load forecasting. The first individually forecast the local loads and the second forecast the global load and individually forecast the load participation factors to estimate the local loads. To design the forecasters it wasn't necessary the previous study of the local loads. Tests were made using a New Zealand distribution subsystem and the results obtained are compatible with the ones founded in the specialized literature. © 2011 IEEE.

Efeito de diferentes protocolos de treinamento sobre o risco cardiovascular global = : Effects of different training programs on global cardiovascular risk

Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física

Non-linear modal analysis for beams subjected to axial loads: Analytical and finite-element solutions

A rigorous derivation of non-linear equations governing the dynamics of an axially loaded beam is given with a clear focus to develop robust low-dimensional models. Two important loading scenarios were considered, where a structure is subjected to a uniformly distributed axial and a thrust force. These loads are to mimic the main forces acting on an offshore riser, for which an analytical methodology has been developed and applied. In particular, non-linear normal modes (NNMs) and non-linear multi-modes (NMMs) have been constructed by using the method of multiple scales. This is to effectively analyse the transversal vibration responses by monitoring the modal responses and mode interactions. The developed analytical models have been crosschecked against the results from FEM simulation. The FEM model having 26 elements and 77 degrees-of-freedom gave similar results as the low-dimensional (one degree-of-freedom) non-linear oscillator, which was developed by constructing a so-called invariant manifold. The comparisons of the dynamical responses were made in terms of time histories, phase portraits and mode shapes. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

From local to global importance measures of uncertainty propagation in composite structures

The influence of uncertainties of input parameters on output response of composite structures is investigated in this paper. In particular, the effects of deviations in mechanical properties, ply angles, ply thickness and on applied loads are studied. The uncertainty propagation and the importance measure of input parameters are analysed using three different approaches: a first-order local method, a Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) supported by a variance-based method and an extension of local variance to estimate the global variance over the domain of inputs. Sample results are shown for a shell composite laminated structure built with different composite systems including multi-materials. The importance measures of input parameters on structural response based on numerical results are established and discussed as a function of the anisotropy of composite materials. Needs for global variance methods are discussed by comparing the results obtained from different proposed methodologies. The objective of this paper is to contribute for the use of GSA techniques together with low expensive local importance measures.

Assessing the behaviour of RC beams subject to significant gravity loads under cyclic loads

Gravity loads can affect a reinforced concrete structure's response to seismic actions, however, traditional procedures for testing the beam behaviour do not take this effect into consideration. An experimental campaign was carried out in order to assess the influence of the gravity load on RC beam connection to the column subjected to cyclic loading. The experiments included the imposition of a conventional quasi-static test protocol based on the imposition of a reverse cyclic displacement history and of an alternative cyclic test procedure starting from the gravity load effects. The test results are presented, compared and analysed in this paper. The imposition of a cyclic test procedure that included the gravity loads effects on the RC beam ends reproduces the demands on the beams' critical zones more realistically than the traditional procedure. The consideration of the vertical load effects in the test procedure led to an accumulation of negative (hogging) deformation. This phenomenon is sustained with the behaviour of a portal frame system under cyclic loads subject to a significant level of the vertical load, leading to the formation of unidirectional plastic hinges. In addition, the hysteretic behaviour of the RC beam ends tested was simulated numerically using the nonlinear structural analysis software - OpenSees. The beam-column model simulates the global element behaviour very well, as there is a reasonable approximation to the hysteretic loops obtained experimentally. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modelling sediment supply and transport in the River Lugg: strategies for controlling sediment loads

The River Lugg has particular problems with high sediment loads that have resulted in detrimental impacts on ecology and fisheries. A new dynamic, process-based model of hydrology and sediments (INCA- SED) has been developed and applied to the River Lugg system using an extensive data set from 1995–2008. The model simulates sediment sources and sinks throughout the catchment and gives a good representation of the sediment response at 22 reaches along the River Lugg. A key question considered in using the model is the management of sediment sources so that concentrations and bed loads can be reduced in the river system. Altogether, five sediment management scenarios were selected for testing on the River Lugg, including land use change, contour tillage, hedging and buffer strips. Running the model with parameters altered to simulate these five scenarios produced some interesting results. All scenarios achieved some reduction in sediment levels, with the 40% land use change achieving the best result with a 19% reduction. The other scenarios also achieved significant reductions of between 7% and 9%. Buffer strips produce the best result at close to 9%. The results suggest that if hedge introduction, contour tillage and buffer strips were all applied, sediment reductions would total 24%, considerably improving the current sediment situation. We present a novel cost-effectiveness analysis of our results where we use percentage of land removed from production as our cost function. Given the minimal loss of land associated with contour tillage, hedges and buffer strips, we suggest that these management practices are the most cost-effective combination to reduce sediment loads.

Optimal power management strategy for energy storage with stochastic loads

In this paper, a power management strategy (PMS) has been developed for the control of energy storage in a system subjected to loads of random duration. The PMS minimises the costs associated with the energy consumption of specific systems powered by a primary energy source and equipped with energy storage, under the assumption that the statistical distribution of load durations is known. By including the variability of the load in the cost function, it was possible to define the optimality criteria for the power flow of the storage. Numerical calculations have been performed obtaining the control strategies associated with the global minimum in energy costs, for a wide range of initial conditions of the system. The results of the calculations have been tested on a MATLAB/Simulink model of a rubber tyre gantry (RTG) crane equipped with a flywheel energy storage system (FESS) and subjected to a test cycle, which corresponds to the real operation of a crane in the Port of Felixstowe. The results of the model show increased energy savings and reduced peak power demand with respect to existing control strategies, indicating considerable potential savings for port operators in terms of energy and maintenance costs.

Method for estimating railroad track settlements due to dynamic traffic loads

This paper is the result of real-scale physical modeling study designed to simulate the load-deformation characteristics of railroad foundation systems that include the railroad ties, the ballast, and the sub-base layers of a railroad embankment. The study presents comparisons of the application of dynamic loads of 100kN on the rails, and the resulting deformations during a 500,000 cycle testing period for three rail support systems; wood, concrete and steel. The results show that the deformation curve has an exponential shape, with the larger portion of the deformation occurring during the first 50,000 load cycles followed by a tendency to stabilize between 100,000 to 500,000 cycles. These results indicate that the critical phase of deformations of a new railroad is within the first 50,000 cycles of loading, and after that, it slowly attenuates as it approaches a stable value. The paper also presents empirically derived formulations for the estimation of the deformations of the rail supports as a result of rail traffic.

Effectiveness of a long-term use of a minimalist footwear versus habitual shoe on pain, function and mechanical loads in knee osteoarthritis: a randomized controlled trial

Background: Recent studies have shown an important reduction of joint overload during locomotion in elderly women with knee osteoarthritis (OA) after short- term use of minimalist shoes. Our aim is to investigate the chronic effect of inexpensive and minimalist footwear on the clinical and functional aspects of OA and gait biomechanics of elderly women with knee OA. Methods/Design: Fifty-six elderly women with knee OA grade 2 or 3 (Kellgren and Lawrence) are randomized into blocks and allocated to either the intervention group, which will use flexible, non-heeled shoes-Moleca (R)-for six months for at least six hours daily, or the control group, which could not use these shoes. Neither group is undergoing physical therapy treatment throughout the intervention period. Moleca (R) is a women's double canvas, flexible, flat walking shoe without heels, with a 5-mm anti-slip rubber sole and a 3-mm internal wedge of ethylene vinyl acetate. Both groups will be followed for six months and will be assessed at baseline condition, after three months, and after six months (end of intervention). All the assessments will be performed by a physiotherapist that is blind to the group allocation. The primary outcome is the pain Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis (WOMAC) score. The secondary outcomes are global WOMAC score; joint stiffness and disability WOMAC scores; knee pain with a visual analogue scale; walking distance in the six-minute walk test; Lequesne score; amount and frequency (number of days) of paracetamol (500 mg) intake over six months; knee adduction moment during gait; global medical assessment score; and global patient auto-assessment score. At baseline, all patients receive a diary to record the hours of daily use of the footwear intervention; every two weeks, the same physiotherapist makes phone calls to all patients in order to verify adherence to treatment. The statistical analysis will be based on intention to treat analysis, as well as general linear models of analysis of variance for repeated measure to detect treatment-time interactions (alpha = 5%). Discussion: This is the first randomized, clinical trial protocol to assess the chronic effect of minimalist footwear on the clinical and functional aspects and gait biomechanics of elderly women with knee osteoarthritis. We expect that the use of Moleca (R) shoes for six months will provide pain relief, reduction of the knee adduction moment when walking, and improve joint function in elderly women with knee OA, and that the treatment, thus, can be considered another inexpensive and easy-to-use option for conservative OA treatment.

Comparison of experimental and numerical sloshing loads in partially filled tanks

Sloshing describes the movement of liquids inside partially filled tanks, generating dynamic loads on the tank structure. The resulting impact pressures are of great importance in assessing structural strength, and their correct evaluation still represents a challenge for the designer due to the high level of nonlinearities involved, with complex free surface deformations, violent impact phenomena and influence of air trapping. In the present paper, a set of two-dimensional cases, for which experimental results are available, is considered to assess the merits and shortcomings of different numerical methods for sloshing evaluation, namely two commercial RANS solvers (FLOW-3D and LS-DYNA), and two academic software (Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics and RANS). Impact pressures at various critical locations and global moment induced by water motion in a partially filled rectangular tank, subject to a simple harmonic rolling motion, are evaluated and predictions are compared with experimental measurements. 2012 Copyright Taylor and Francis Group, LLC.

Spatial linear global instability analysis of the HIFiRE-5 elliptic cone model flow

The linear instability of the three-dimensional boundary-layer over the HIFiRE-5 flight test geometry, i.e. a rounded-tip 2:1 elliptic cone, at Mach 7, has been analyzed through spatial BiGlobal analysis, in a effort to understand transition and accurately predict local heat loads on next-generation ight vehicles. The results at an intermediate axial section of the cone, Re x = 8x10 5, show three different families of spatially amplied linear global modes, the attachment-line and cross- ow modes known from earlier analyses, and a new global mode, peaking in the vicinity of the minor axis of the cone, termed \center-line mode". We discover that a sequence of symmetric and anti-symmetric centerline modes exist and, for the basic ow at hand, are maximally amplied around F* = 130kHz. The wavenumbers and spatial distribution of amplitude functions of the centerline modes are documented

A methodology to calibrate structural finite element models for reinforced concrete structures subject to blast loads

Civil buildings are not specifically designed to support blast loads, but it is important to take into account these potential scenarios because of their catastrophic effects, on persons and structures. A practical way to consider explosions on reinforced concrete structures is necessary. With this objective we propose a methodology to evaluate blast loads on large concrete buildings, using LS-DYNA code for calculation, with Lagrangian finite elements and explicit time integration. The methodology has three steps. First, individual structural elements of the building like columns and slabs are studied, using continuum 3D elements models subjected to blast loads. In these models reinforced concrete is represented with high precision, using advanced material models such as CSCM_CONCRETE model, and segregated rebars constrained within the continuum mesh. Regrettably this approach cannot be used for large structures because of its excessive computational cost. Second, models based on structural elements are developed, using shells and beam elements. In these models concrete is represented using CONCRETE_EC2 model and segregated rebars with offset formulation, being calibrated with continuum elements models from step one to obtain the same structural response: displacement, velocity, acceleration, damage and erosion. Third, models basedon structural elements are used to develop large models of complete buildings. They are used to study the global response of buildings subjected to blast loads and progressive collapse. This article carries out different techniques needed to calibrate properly the models based on structural elements, using shells and beam elements, in order to provide results of sufficient accuracy that can be used with moderate computational cost.

Contribución del tablero y de la subestructura frente al pandeo global de pilas esbeltas de hormigón armado : determinación simplificada de una "coacción equivalente"

Las pilas de los puentes son elementos habitualmente verticales que, generalmente, se encuentran sometidos a un estado de flexión compuesta. Su altura significativa en muchas ocasiones y la gran resistencia de los materiales constituyentes de estos elementos – hormigón y acero – hace que se encuentren pilas de cierta esbeltez en la que los problemas de inestabilidad asociados al cálculo en segundo orden debido a la no linealidad geométrica deben ser considerados. Además, la mayoría de las pilas de nuestros puentes y viaductos están hechas de hormigón armado por lo que se debe considerar la fisuración del hormigón en las zonas en que esté traccionado. Es decir, el estudio del pandeo de pilas esbeltas de puentes requiere también la consideración de un cálculo en segundo orden mecánico, y no solo geométrico. Por otra parte, una pila de un viaducto no es un elemento que pueda considerarse como aislado; al contrario, su conexión con el tablero hace que aparezca una interacción entre la propia pila y aquél que, en cierta medida, supone una cierta coacción al movimiento de la propia cabeza de pila. Esto hace que el estudio de la inestabilidad de una pila esbelta de un puente no puede ser resuelto con la “teoría del pandeo de la pieza aislada”. Se plantea, entonces, la cuestión de intentar definir un procedimiento que permita abordar el problema complicado del pandeo de pilas esbeltas de puentes pero empleando herramientas de cálculo no tan complejas como las que resuelven “el pandeo global de una estructura multibarra, teniendo en cuenta todas las no linealidades, incluidas las de las coacciones”. Es decir, se trata de encontrar un procedimiento, que resulta ser iterativo, que resuelva el problema planteado de forma aproximada, pero suficientemente ajustada al resultado real, pero empleando programas “convencionales” de cálculo que sean capaces de : - por una parte, en la estructura completa: o calcular en régimen elástico lineal una estructura plana o espacial multibarra compleja; - por otra, en un modelo de una sola barra aislada: o considerar las no linealidades geométricas y mecánicas a nivel tensodeformacional, o considerar la no linealidad producida por la fisuración del hormigón, o considerar una coacción “elástica” en el extremo de la pieza. El objeto de este trabajo es precisamente la definición de ese procedimiento iterativo aproximado, la justificación de su validez, mediante su aplicación a diversos casos paramétricos, y la presentación de sus condicionantes y limitaciones. Además, para conseguir estos objetivos se han elaborado unos ábacos de nueva creación que permiten estimar la reducción de rigidez que supone la fisuración del hormigón en secciones huecas monocajón de hormigón armado. También se han creado unos novedosos diagramas de interacción axil-flector válidos para este tipo de secciones en flexión biaxial. Por último, hay que reseñar que otro de los objetivos de este trabajo – que, además, le da título - era cuantificar el valor de la coacción que existe en la cabeza de una pila debido a que el tablero transmite las cargas de una pila al resto de los integrantes de la subestructura y ésta, por tanto, colabora a reducir los movimientos de la cabeza de pila en cuestión. Es decir, la cabeza de una pila no está exenta lo cual mejora su comportamiento frente al pandeo. El régimen de trabajo de esta coacción es claramente no lineal, ya que la rigidez de las pilas depende de su grado de fisuración. Además, también influye cómo las afecta la no linealidad geométrica que, para la misma carga, aumenta la flexión de segundo orden de cada pila. En este documento se define cuánto vale esta coacción, cómo hay que calcularla y se comprueba su ajuste a los resultados obtenidos en el l modelo no lineal completo. The piers of the bridges are vertical elements where axial loads and bending moments are to be considered. They are often high and also the strength of the materials they are made of (concrete and steel) is also high. This means that slender piers are very common and, so, the instabilities produced by the second order effects due to the geometrical non linear effects are to be considered. In addition to this, the piers are usually made of reinforced concrete and, so, the effects of the cracking of the concrete should also be evaluated. That is, the analysis of the instabilities of te piers of a bridge should consider both the mechanical and the geometrical non linearities. Additionally, the pier of a bridge is not a single element, but just the opposite; the connection of the pier to the deck of the bridge means that the movements of the top of the pier are reduced compared to the situation of having a free end at the top of the pier. The connection between the pier and the deck is the reason why the instability of the pier cannot be analysed using “the buckling of a compressed single element method”. So, the question of defining an approximate method for analysing the buckling of the slender piers of a bridge but using a software less complex than what it is needed for analysing the “ global buckling of a multibeam structure considering all t”, is arisen. Then, the goal should be trying to find a procedure for analysing the said complex problem of the buckling of the slender piers of a bridge using a simplified method. This method could be an iterative (step by step) procedure, being accurate enough, using “normal” software having the following capabilities: - Related to the calculation of the global structure o Ability for calculating a multibesam strucutre using elastic analysis. - Related to the calculation of a single beam strcuture:: o Ability for taking into account the geometrical and mechanical () non linearities o Ability for taking into account the cracking of the concrete. o Ability for using partial stiff constraints (elastic springs) at the end of the elements One of the objectives of this document is just defining this simplified methodology, justifying the accuracy of the proposed procedure by using it on some different bridges and presenting the exclusions and limitations of the propose method. In addition to this, some new charts have been created for calculating the reduction of the stiffness of hollow cross sections made of reinforced concrete. Also, new charts for calculating the reinforcing of hollow cross sections under biaxial bending moments are also included in the document. Finally, it is to be said that another aim of the document – as it is stated on the title on the document – is defining the value of the constraint on the top of the pier because of the connection of the pier to the deck .. and to the other piers. That is, the top of the pier is not a free end of a beam and so the buckling resistance of the pier is significantly improved. This constraint is a non-elastic constraint because the stiffness of each pier depends on the level of cracking. Additionally, the geometrical non linearity is to be considered as there is an amplification of the bending moments due to the increasing of the movements of the top of the pier. This document is defining how this constraints is to be calculated; also the accuracy of the calculations is evaluated comparing the final results with the results of the complete non linear calculations

Analysis of the moisture effect on the mechanical behaviour of an adhesively bonded joint under proportional multi-axial loads

The objective of the study is to identify the 3D behaviour of an adhesive in an assembly, and to take into account the effect of ageing in a marine environment. To that end, three different tests were employed. Gravimetric analyses were used to determine the water diffusion kinetics in the adhesive. Bulk tensile tests were performed to highlight the effects of humid ageing on the adhesive behaviour. Modified Arcan tests were performed for several ageing times to obtain the experimental database which was necessary to identify constitutive models. A Mahnken-Schlimmer type model was determined for the unaged state according to a procedure developed in a previous study. This identification used inverse techniques. It was based on the unaged modified Arcan results and on a coupling between an optimisation routine and finite-element analysis. Then, a global inverse identification procedure was developed. Its aim was to relate the unaged parameters to the moisture concentration and overcome the difficulties usually associated with ageing of bonded assemblies in a humid environment: a non-uniformity of the stress state and a gradient of mechanical properties in the adhesive. This procedure was similar to the one used in the first part but needed modified Arcan results for several ageing times. It also required an initial assumption for the evolution of the Mahnken-Schlimmer parameters with the moisture concentration.

Global Fatigue Assessment of a Decommissioned Jacket Platform for a Sustainable Reuse as an Offshore Wind Turbine

When the offshore oil and gas supplies exhaust, offshore platforms must be decommissioned and removed. The present thesis highlights the importance of evaluating the possibility of reuse of decommissioned offshore jacket platforms for offshore wind energy. In order to shift to the new structure, the topside must be removed from the substructure and a wind turbine can be installed in its place. The feasibility of this project was investigated using a finite element analysis software called Sesam. To study fatigue life in offshore structures, an exhaustive review of the background and state of the art was done. A finite element model was created by the means of Sesam and two different fatigue analysis approaches were applied and compared. In the end, an analysis methodology is suggested for the structural fatigue analysis of offshore wind turbine structures based on international standards, addressing the industry’s need to account for the combined effect of wind and hydrodynamic loads in these type of structures.