Pequeñas localidades rurales, cambios globales y conocimiento local : Estudios comparados en América Latina

El presente artículo aborda los cambios en los espacios rurales de América Latina y los posibles escenarios futuros a través de estudios de caso desarrollados en el contexto del proyecto "Designing a methology to evaluate local knowlegde on global change and its role in the construction of future land use scenarios by local actors" IAI Institut for Global Change (director Jean Francois Tourrand, CIRAD). Este proyecto tiene un objetivo metodológico principal que consiste en elaborar, testear y validar una metodología para evaluar el conocimiento local sobre el cambio global y cómo se incorpora tal conocimiento en la construcción de escenarios futuros de uso de suelo. La complejidad del problema implica un abordaje interdisciplinario a través de la participación de investigadores de distintos países e instituciones y el desarrollo de trabajos de campo en distintos espacios rurales (1) En lo que respecta a la metodología elaborada, las experiencias permitieron avanzar en la precisión de las informaciones a recabar (factores de cambio, escenarios y condiciones) y fue enriquecedora la experiencia de los trabajos de campo en Uruguay, Brasil y Perú.

Pequeñas localidades rurales, cambios globales y conocimiento local : Estudios comparados en América Latina

El presente artículo aborda los cambios en los espacios rurales de América Latina y los posibles escenarios futuros a través de estudios de caso desarrollados en el contexto del proyecto "Designing a methology to evaluate local knowlegde on global change and its role in the construction of future land use scenarios by local actors" IAI Institut for Global Change (director Jean Francois Tourrand, CIRAD). Este proyecto tiene un objetivo metodológico principal que consiste en elaborar, testear y validar una metodología para evaluar el conocimiento local sobre el cambio global y cómo se incorpora tal conocimiento en la construcción de escenarios futuros de uso de suelo. La complejidad del problema implica un abordaje interdisciplinario a través de la participación de investigadores de distintos países e instituciones y el desarrollo de trabajos de campo en distintos espacios rurales (1) En lo que respecta a la metodología elaborada, las experiencias permitieron avanzar en la precisión de las informaciones a recabar (factores de cambio, escenarios y condiciones) y fue enriquecedora la experiencia de los trabajos de campo en Uruguay, Brasil y Perú.

Pequeñas localidades rurales, cambios globales y conocimiento local : Estudios comparados en América Latina

El presente artículo aborda los cambios en los espacios rurales de América Latina y los posibles escenarios futuros a través de estudios de caso desarrollados en el contexto del proyecto "Designing a methology to evaluate local knowlegde on global change and its role in the construction of future land use scenarios by local actors" IAI Institut for Global Change (director Jean Francois Tourrand, CIRAD). Este proyecto tiene un objetivo metodológico principal que consiste en elaborar, testear y validar una metodología para evaluar el conocimiento local sobre el cambio global y cómo se incorpora tal conocimiento en la construcción de escenarios futuros de uso de suelo. La complejidad del problema implica un abordaje interdisciplinario a través de la participación de investigadores de distintos países e instituciones y el desarrollo de trabajos de campo en distintos espacios rurales (1) En lo que respecta a la metodología elaborada, las experiencias permitieron avanzar en la precisión de las informaciones a recabar (factores de cambio, escenarios y condiciones) y fue enriquecedora la experiencia de los trabajos de campo en Uruguay, Brasil y Perú.

Observational constraints on past attributable warming and predictions of future global warming

This paper investigates the impact of aerosol forcing uncertainty on the robustness of estimates of the twentieth-century warming attributable to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Attribution analyses on three coupled climate models with very different sensitivities and aerosol forcing are carried out. The Third Hadley Centre Coupled Ocean - Atmosphere GCM (HadCM3), Parallel Climate Model (PCM), and GFDL R30 models all provide good simulations of twentieth-century global mean temperature changes when they include both anthropogenic and natural forcings. Such good agreement could result from a fortuitous cancellation of errors, for example, by balancing too much ( or too little) greenhouse warming by too much ( or too little) aerosol cooling. Despite a very large uncertainty for estimates of the possible range of sulfate aerosol forcing obtained from measurement campaigns, results show that the spatial and temporal nature of observed twentieth-century temperature change constrains the component of past warming attributable to anthropogenic greenhouse gases to be significantly greater ( at the 5% level) than the observed warming over the twentieth century. The cooling effects of aerosols are detected in all three models. Both spatial and temporal aspects of observed temperature change are responsible for constraining the relative roles of greenhouse warming and sulfate cooling over the twentieth century. This is because there are distinctive temporal structures in differential warming rates between the hemispheres, between land and ocean, and between mid- and low latitudes. As a result, consistent estimates of warming attributable to greenhouse gas emissions are obtained from all three models, and predictions are relatively robust to the use of more or less sensitive models. The transient climate response following a 1% yr(-1) increase in CO2 is estimated to lie between 2.2 and 4 K century(-1) (5-95 percentiles).

Estimates of global sources and sinks of carbon from land cover and land use changes

The distribution of sources and sinks of carbon over the land surface is dominated by changes in land use such as deforestation, reforestation, and agricultural management. Despite, the importance of land-use change in dominating long-term net terrestrial fluxes of carbon, estimates of the annual flux are uncertain relative to other terms in the global carbon budget. The interaction of the nitrogen cycle via atmospheric N inputs and N limitation with the carbon cycle contributes to the uncertain effect of land use change on terrestrial carbon uptake. This study uses two different land use datasets to force the geographically explicit terrestrial carbon-nitrogen coupled component of the Integrated Science Assessment Model (ISAM) to examine the response of terrestrial carbon stocks to historical LCLUC (cropland, pastureland and wood harvest) while accounting for changes in N deposition, atmospheric CO2 and climate. One of the land use datasets is based on satellite data (SAGE) while the other uses population density maps (HYDE), which allows this study to investigate how global LCLUC data construction can affect model estimated emissions. The timeline chosen for this study starts before the Industrial Revolution in 1765 to the year 2000 because of the influence of rising population and economic development on regional LCLUC. Additionally, this study evaluates the impact that resulting secondary forests may have on terrestrial carbon uptake. The ISAM model simulations indicate that uncertainties in net terrestrial carbon fluxes during the 1990s are largely due to uncertainties in regional LCLUC data. Also results show that secondary forests increase the terrestrial carbon sink but secondary tropical forests carbon uptake are constrained due to nutrient limitation.

Un modelo contable para la evaluación económico-financiera en escenarios futuros de la empresa agropecuaria. An accounting model for the economic and financial evaluation of future scenarios in farm enterprises.

El problema: En todo momento y sobre todo cuando estamos en presencia de escenarios económicos turbulentos resulta imprescindible utilizar herramientas que permitan realizar análisis de sensitividad sobre las distintas situaciones que podrían plantearse. La elaboración de modelos matemáticos deterministas desde las aplicaciones realizadas por Richard Mattessich han constituido un instrumento idóneo para el caso de empresas comerciales o industriales. Los modelos informáticos utilizados para las empresas agropecuarias han abordado fundamentalmente la temática relacionada con la producción, no así las otras variables económicas y financieras. Por lo tanto, entendemos que se hace necesario trabajar con modelos agropecuarios que comprendan todas las variables económicas y financieras, de manera de observar otro tipo de cuestiones, tales como: el modo de financiarse, los costos financieros, necesidades de capital de trabajo. Hipótesis: Es posible, a través de la utilización de la información contable en sentido prospectivo, interpretar adecuadamente los escenarios futuros de las organizaciones agropecuarias, cuantificando los impactos que generan tanto las estrategias y políticas aplicables, como las distorsiones del contexto. Objetivo general: determinar la incidencia de las decisiones internas y las que provengan del funcionamiento del sistema económico, a través de la información contable prospectiva. Objetivos específicos: a. Describir los impactos que se producen en la estructura patrimonial, financiera y en los resultados, como consecuencia de los cambios en las estrategias y políticas de la empresa agropecuaria, así como los efectos macroeconómicos en la estructura de la empresa que pudieran estar conmoviendo la gestión económico-financiera. b. Identificar mecanismos y proponer criterios para la elaboración de modelos que permitan visualizar los impactos en los escenarios futuros y las adecuaciones necesarias en la estructura que permitan soportar las modificaciones. Metodología: será un estudio a nivel teórico, donde una vez identificadas las variables y planteados los modelos, se propondrán distintas situaciones y se testearán las respuestas. Resultados esperados: lograr un avance en la evaluación económico-financiera prospectiva de empresas agropecuarias y constituir un avance para futuras investigaciones. Importancia del proyecto: La producción agropecuaria es vital tanto para el desarrollo económico de Argentina, como en particular para la provincia de Córdoba. Elaborar herramientas que eficientizen la administración de este tipo de empresas, redundará en beneficio colectivo. Pertinencia: El producto verificable será la construcción de un modelo distinto a los actuales, tanto en su desarrollo, objetivo al que está destinado y sencillez de su aplicación, posibilitando la inserción del productor en el proceso de planificación, reduciendo el riesgo en la toma de decisiones. Esperando generar un avance sobre los modelos preexistente.

Changes in fire regimes since the Last Glacial Maximum: an assessment based on a global synthesis and analysis of charcoal data

Fire activity has varied globally and continuously since the last glacial maximum (LGM) in response to long-term changes in global climate and shorter-term regional changes in climate, vegetation, and human land use. We have synthesized sedimentary charcoal records of biomass burning since the LGM and present global maps showing changes in fire activity for time slices during the past 21,000 years (as differences in charcoal accumulation values compared to pre-industrial). There is strong broad-scale coherence in fire activity after the LGM, but spatial heterogeneity in the signals increases thereafter. In North America, Europe and southern South America, charcoal records indicate less-than-present fire activity during the deglacial period, from 21,000 to ∼11,000 cal yr BP. In contrast, the tropical latitudes of South America and Africa show greater-than-present fire activity from ∼19,000 to ∼17,000 cal yr BP and most sites from Indochina and Australia show greater-than-present fire activity from 16,000 to ∼13,000 cal yr BP. Many sites indicate greater-than-present or near-present activity during the Holocene with the exception of eastern North America and eastern Asia from 8,000 to ∼3,000 cal yr BP, Indonesia and Australia from 11,000 to 4,000 cal yr BP, and southern South America from 6,000 to 3,000 cal yr BP where fire activity was less than present. Regional coherence in the patterns of change in fire activity was evident throughout the post-glacial period. These complex patterns can largely be explained in terms of large-scale climate controls modulated by local changes in vegetation and fuel load

Regulation of mucoidy in the biological control agent Pseudomonas fluorescens CHA0 and construction of an exopolysaccharide-overproducing variant

Pseudomonas fluorescens CHA0, an effective biological control agent of soilborne plant diseases, is naturally non-mucoid. We have isolated a highly mucoid Tn5 insertion mutant of strain CHA0. The mucoid phenotype was found to be due to the overproduction of exopolysaccharide (EPS), as a result of a mutation in the mucA gene. The wild-type mucA gene was cloned by a two-step, Tn5-dependent cloning procedure previously described and the deduced amino acid sequence showed 71% identity with MucA of P. aeruginosa, a negative regulator of the alternative sigma factor AlgU (=s22, sE). As in P. aeruginosa, mucA is preceded by the algU gene encoding s22 (91% identity at the amino acid sequence level). A mucA in-frame deletion mutant of CHA0 overproduced EPS and formed mucoid colonies, whereas an algU in-frame deletion mutant showed a non-mucoid phenotype. Pyoluteorin, an antibiotic produced by P. fluorescens, was found to be entrapped in EPS of a mucoid mutant. In natural soil, mucoidy negatively affected survival of the bacteria, suggesting that under these conditions the potential to produce abundant EPS does not confer a selective advantage on the bacteria.

Structural Changes and Formation of Rusta-shahr in Post-Revolutionary Rural Society in Iran

The following paper is based on the author's two-year research and fieldwork in Iran and examines the process of political and social changes since the Iranian Revolution of 1979 and the subsequent impact of the Iran-Iraq War of 1980-88. This paper focuses on the transition of traditional, small villages into rusta-shahr or small rural cities and the first and second nation-wide elections of shoura or councils which were the first steps toward self-government. The author is guardedly optimistic regarding this democratic process but warns of possible future social unrest if changes are not more "balanced" between cities and rural areas and if the employment needs of the burgeoning younger generation are not met, political and social consequences may be catastrophic.

Design, development and construction of an outdoor testing facility for semi-transparent photovoltaic modules

Building-integrated Photovoltaics (BIPV) is one of the most promising technologies enabling buildings to generate on-site part of their electricity needs while performing architectural functionalities. A clear example of BIPV products consists of semi-transparent photovoltaic modules (STPV), designed to replace the conventional glazing solutions in building façades. Accordingly, the active building envelope is required to perform multiple requirements such as provide solar shading to avoid overheating, supply solar gains and thermal insulation to reduce heat loads and improve daylight utilization. To date, various studies into STPV systems have focused on their energy performance based on existing simulation programs, or on the modelling, normally validated by limited experimental data, of the STPV modules thermal behaviour. Taking into account that very limited experimental research has been conducted on the energy performance of STPV elements and that the characterization in real operation conditions is necessary to promote an energetically efficient integration of this technology in the building envelope, an outdoor testing facility has been designed, developed and built at the Solar Energy Institute of the Technical University of Madrid. In this work, the methodology used in the definition of the testing facility, its capability and limitations are presented and discussed.

Egypt: Changes and Challenges of Political Transition. MEDPRO Technical Report No. 4/May 2011

Hosni Mubarak’s regime and its power system enjoyed remarkable stability for over 30 years. On 11 February 2011, after 18 days of mass protests, the Egyptian president was forced to step down, revealing the unsustainability of the political and economic system that had ensured his continuity for so long. While the revolution of January 25th led to a major success – the fall of Hosni Mubarak – Egypt’s political future is still opaque and exposed to a number of risks. This paper first highlights the factors underpinning the former stability of Mubarak’s regime; it then assesses the causes of its underlying unsustainability, leading to the anti-government popular mobilisation in January-February 2011 and the removal of Mubarak; finally the paper evaluates the prospects for a genuine democratic transition in Egypt, by looking at the main political and socio-economic challenges facing the country.

Design, modeling and construction of a novel ablative fast pyrolysis reactor and product collection system

The objective of this work was to design, construct and commission a new ablative pyrolysis reactor and a high efficiency product collection system. The reactor was to have a nominal throughput of 10 kg/11r of dry biomass and be inherently scalable up to an industrial scale application of 10 tones/hr. The whole process consists of a bladed ablative pyrolysis reactor, two high efficiency cyclones for char removal and a disk and doughnut quench column combined with a wet walled electrostatic precipitator, which is directly mounted on top, for liquids collection. In order to aid design and scale-up calculations, detailed mathematical modelling was undertaken of the reaction system enabling sizes, efficiencies and operating conditions to be determined. Specifically, a modular approach was taken due to the iterative nature of some of the design methodologies, with the output from one module being the input to the next. Separate modules were developed for the determination of the biomass ablation rate, specification of the reactor capacity, cyclone design, quench column design and electrostatic precipitator design. These models enabled a rigorous design protocol to be developed capable of specifying the required reactor and product collection system size for specified biomass throughputs, operating conditions and collection efficiencies. The reactor proved capable of generating an ablation rate of 0.63 mm/s for pine wood at a temperature of 525 'DC with a relative velocity between the heated surface and reacting biomass particle of 12.1 m/s. The reactor achieved a maximum throughput of 2.3 kg/hr, which was the maximum the biomass feeder could supply. The reactor is capable of being operated at a far higher throughput but this would require a new feeder and drive motor to be purchased. Modelling showed that the reactor is capable of achieving a reactor throughput of approximately 30 kg/hr. This is an area that should be considered for the future as the reactor is currently operating well below its theoretical maximum. Calculations show that the current product collection system could operate efficiently up to a maximum feed rate of 10 kg/Fir, provided the inert gas supply was adjusted accordingly to keep the vapour residence time in the electrostatic precipitator above one second. Operation above 10 kg/hr would require some modifications to the product collection system. Eight experimental runs were documented and considered successful, more were attempted but due to equipment failure had to be abandoned. This does not detract from the fact that the reactor and product collection system design was extremely efficient. The maximum total liquid yield was 64.9 % liquid yields on a dry wood fed basis. It is considered that the liquid yield would have been higher had there been sufficient development time to overcome certain operational difficulties and if longer operating runs had been attempted to offset product losses occurring due to the difficulties in collecting all available product from a large scale collection unit. The liquids collection system was highly efficient and modeling determined a liquid collection efficiency of above 99% on a mass basis. This was validated due to the fact that a dry ice/acetone condenser and a cotton wool filter downstream of the collection unit enabled mass measurements of the amount of condensable product exiting the product collection unit. This showed that the collection efficiency was in excess of 99% on a mass basis.