Assessing global economic activity linkages: an empirical exercise based on global autoregressive regression

Economic performance increasingly relies on global economic environment due to the growing importance of trade and nancial links among countries. Literature on growth spillovers shows various gains obtained by this interaction. This work aims at analyzing the possible e ects of a potential economic growth downturn in China, Germany and United States on the growth of other economies. We use global autoregressive regression approach to assess interdependence among countries. Two types of phenomena are simulated. The rst one is a one time shock that hit these economies. Our simulations use a large shock of -2.5 standard deviations, a gure very similar to what we saw back in the 2008 crises. The second experiment simulate the e ect of a hypothetical downturn of the aforementioned economies. Our results suggest that the United States play the role of a global economy a ecting countries across the globe whereas Germany and China play a regional role.

Efeitos de choques globais na economia brasileira: uma análise a partir do GVAR

O objetivo deste estudo é avaliar a propagação de choques econômicos de alguns países sobre o crescimento econômico brasileiro, com principal destaque para China, Estados Unidos da América (EUA) e Argentina, que são os principais parceiros comerciais do Brasil. O aumento do comércio com a China tornou o Brasil muito mais vulnerável a choques no PIB chinês e menos vulnerável, do que no passado recente, a choques no PIB americano, enquanto que a influência da Argentina manteve-se estável. Foi aplicada a metodologia Vetor Autorregressivo Global (Global Var – GVAR), introduzida por Pesaran, Schuermann e Weiner (2004), Garratt, Lee, Pesaran e Shin (2006) e Dées, Di Mauro, Pesaran e Smith (2007), para analisar os canais de comércio e a transmissão de choques entre o resto do mundo e o Brasil. Usando dados trimestrais a partir de 1990 até o final de 2013, foi possível constatar que o aumento da relevância da economia Chinesa na balança comercial Brasileira exerce pressão sobre o crescimento econômico do Brasil. Em suma, a China tornou-se mais relevante para o crescimento econômico do Brasil do que os EUA e a Argentina.

Assessing interdependence among countries' fundamentals and its implications for exchange rate misalignment estimates: An empirical exercise based on GVAR

Exchange rates are important macroeconomic prices and changes in these rates a ect economic activity, prices, interest rates, and trade ows. Methodologies have been developed in empirical exchange rate misalignment studies to evaluate whether a real e ective exchange is overvalued or undervalued. There is a vast body of literature on the determinants of long-term real exchange rates and on empirical strategies to implement the equilibrium norms obtained from theoretical models. This study seeks to contribute to this literature by showing that the global vector autoregressions model (GVAR) proposed by Pesaran and co-authors can add relevant information to the literature on measuring exchange rate misalignment. Our empirical exercise suggests that the estimate exchange rate misalignment obtained from GVAR can be quite di erent to that using the traditional cointegrated time series techniques, which treat countries as detached entities. The di erences between the two approaches are more pronounced for small and developing countries. Our results also suggest a strong interdependence among eurozone countries, as expected

An evaluation of the effectiveness of Value-at-Risk (VaR) models for Australian banks under Basel III

This study compares Value-at-Risk (VaR) measures for Australian banks over a period that includes the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) to determine whether the methodology and parameter selection are important for capital adequacy holdings that will ultimately support a bank in a crisis period. VaR methodology promoted under Basel II was largely criticised during the GFC for its failure to capture downside risk. However, results from this study indicate that 1-year parametric and historical models produce better measures of VaR than models with longer time frames. VaR estimates produced using Monte Carlo simulations show a high percentage of violations but with lower average magnitude of a violation when they occur. VaR estimates produced by the ARMA GARCH model also show a relatively high percentage of violations, however, the average magnitude of a violation is quite low. Our findings support the design of the revised Basel II VaR methodology which has also been adopted under Basel III.

Medicago blancheana Boiss. var. blancheana, nueva adventicia para la Península Ibérica

Se cita una nueva adventicia de origen mediterráneo-oriental para la Peninsula Ibérica: Medicago blancheana Boiss. var. blancheana.

Notas sobre la vegetación bentónica del litoral de la Península Ibérica. II. Ulva rigida C. Agardh var. fimbriata J. Agardh. en las costas españolas: su variabilidad morfológica y anatómica

Se comenta en esta nota el hallazgo en las costas españolas de Ulva rigida var. fimbriata, ofreciéndose nuevos datos sobre su morfología y caracteres anatómicos, así como su distribución geográfica.

The South American Plasmodium falciparum var gene repertoire is limited, highly shared and possibly lacks several antigenic types

The Plasmodium falciparum var gene family encodes large variant antigens, which are important virulence factors, and also targets of the humoral host response. The frequently observed mild outcomes of falciparum malaria in many places of the Amazon area prompted us to ask whether a globally restricted variant (var) gene repertoire is present in currently circulating and older isolates of this area. By exhaustive analysis of var gene tags from 89 isolates and clones taken during many years from all over the Brazilian Amazon, we estimate that there are probably no more than 350-430 distinct sequence types, less than for any similar sized area studied so far. Detailed analysis of the var tags from genetically distinct clones obtained from single isolates revealed restricted and redundant repertoires suggesting either a low incidence of infective bites or restricted variant gene diversity in inoculated parasites. Additionally, we found a structuring of var gene repertoires observed as a higher pairwise typing sharing in isolates from the same microregion compared to isolates from different regions. Fine analysis of translated var tags revealed that certain Distinct Sequence Identifiers (DSIDs) were differently represented in Brazilian/South American isolates when compared to datasets from other continents. By global alignment of worldwide var DBL alpha sequences and sorting in groups with more than 76% identity, 125 clusters were formed and more than half of all genes were found in nine clusters with 50 or more sequences. While Brazilian/South American sequences were represented only in 64 groups, African sequences were found in the majority of clusters. DSID type 1 related sequences accumulated almost completely in one single cluster, indicating that limited recombination occurs in these specific var gene types. These data demonstrate the so far highest pairwise type sharing values for the var gene family in isolates from all over an entire subcontinent. The apparent lack of specific sequences types suggests that the P. falciparum transmission dynamics in the whole Amazon are probably different from any other endemic region studied and possibly interfere with the parasite`s ability to efficiently diversify its variant gene repertoires. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Multi-area decentralized optimal VAr planning using the Dantzig-Wolfe decomposition principle

This paper presents a new methodology for solving the optimal VAr planning problem in multi-area electric power systems, using the Dantzig-Wolfe decomposition. The original multi-area problem is decomposed into subproblems (one for each area) and a master problem (coordinator). The solution of the VAr planning problem in each area is based on the application of successive linear programming, and the coordination scheme is based on the reactive power marginal costs in the border bus. The aim of the model is to provide coordinated mechanisms to carry out the VAr planning studies maximizing autonomy and confidentiality for each area, assuring global economy to the whole system. Using the mathematical model and computational implementation of the proposed methodology, numerical results are presented for two interconnected systems, each of them composed of three equal subsystems formed by IEEE30 and IEEE118 test systems. © 2011 IEEE.

Estoques e fluxos de carbono em plantações florestais jovens de Acacia mangium e Schizolobium parahyba var. Amazonicum na Amazônia Oriental

Plantações florestais são consideradas como alternativas de uso da terra para mitigação dos efeitos das mudanças climáticas, devido ao potencial de sequestro de carbono em espécies arbóreas. No entanto, há poucas informações sobre estoques e fluxos de carbono em espécies comumente usadas em plantações florestais, sobretudo na Amazônia. O objetivo deste estudo foi determinar o estoque de carbono na fitomassa e o efluxo de dióxido de carbono do solo em plantios de Acacia mangium Willd e Schizolobium parahyba var. amazonicum em diferentes espaçamentos. O estudo foi conduzido em Dom Eliseu, Pará, cujo clima apresenta temperatura média anual em torno de 25 ºC e precipitação anual de 2250 a 2500 mm; o solo predominante é Latossolo amarelo distrófico típico A moderado textura muito argilosa. Neste estudo foram selecionadas duas espécies (A. mangium e S. parahyba) em dois espaçamentos (4,0 m x 2,0 m e 4,0 m x 3,0 m), com duas repetições, totalizando 4 tratamentos e 8 parcelas, estudadas por um período de um ano, dos 2,5 aos 3,5 anos de idade. As parcelas mediram 48 m x 60 m. Mediram-se altura total, diâmetro à altura do peito, fluxo de CO₂ do solo, e estimou-se o estoque de carbono na fitomassa acima do nível do solo. O efluxo de CO₂ do solo nos plantios de A. mangium tiveram uma média global de 5,61 ± 1,30 Mg C ha^-1 ano^-1, e, em S. parahyba, a média global foi 7,07 ± 1,50 Mg C ha^-1 ano^-1. O acúmulo anual de carbono na fitomassa acima do solo nos plantios de A. mangium foi 16,41 ± 1,16 e 14,03 ± 0,82 Mg C ha^-1 ano^-1, no 4,0 x 2,0 m e 4,0 x 3,0 m, respectivamente. Em S. parahyba o acúmulo anual global foi 8,93 ± 1,87 Mg C ha^-1 ano^-1. O plantio de A. mangium acumulou mais carbono na fitomassa acima do solo em relação a S. parahyba, com efluxos anuais de CO₂ menores em relação ao plantio de S. parahyba em ambos espaçamentos. Dessa forma, plantios de A. mangium, no espaçamento 4,0 x 2,0 m, são recomendados para projetos de sequestro de carbono. Entre os espaçamentos de plantio testados para S. parahyba, 4,0 x 3,0 m seria recomendado devido a mesma eficiência no sequestro de carbono em relação a 4,0 x 2,0 m, porém com menor requerimento de mudas. A continuidade no monitoramento nessas plantações florestais é fundamental para que conclusões mais definitivas sejam feitas a respeito da dinâmica do carbono.

O Brasil no global innovation index 2012: aprofundando o entendimento dos resultados

Este artigo analisa em detalhes os indicadores e resultado obtidos pelo Brasil na edição 2012 do Global Innovation Index (GII) [1], um dos mais importantes estudos sobre Competitividade de Países. Esta análise, por si só, pode ser útil para os interessados no Brasil e nos estudos sobre Competitividade, mas ele também demonstra que existem fatores de influência, ou influenciadores, que precisam ser considerados juntamente com a análise dos resultados dos países. Estes influenciadores, como as mudanças metodológicas, a latência dos dados, o intervalo de confiança e evolução da economia do país; ajudam a explicar os resultados negativos ou positivos do país, de um ano para outro, demonstrando os cuidados que precisam ser tomados na interpretação dos estudos de competividade. Neste artigo, evitamos traduzir a descrição do nome dos indicadores para facilitar o entendimento.

Trace metals in sediments of the Var Canyon turbidite system at the DYFAMED station in the Ligurian Sea

The magnitude and the chronology of anthropogenic impregnation by Hg and other trace metals of environmental concern (V, Cr, Ni, Cu, Zn, Ag, Cd and Pb, including its stable isotopes) in the sediments are determined at the DYFAMED station, a site in the Ligurian Sea (Northwestern Mediterranean) chosen for its supposed open-sea characteristics. The DYFAMED site (VD) is located on the right levee of the Var Canyon turbidite system, at the end of the Middle Valley. In order to trace the influence of the gravity current coming from the canyon on trace metal distribution in the sediment, we studied an additional sediment core (VA) from a terrace of the Var Canyon, and material collected in sediment traps at the both sites at 20 m above sea bottom. The patterns of Hg and other trace element distribution profiles are interpreted using stable Pb isotope ratios as proxies for its sources, taking into account the sedimentary context (turbidites, redox conditions, and sedimentation rates). Major element distributions, coupled with the stratigraphic examination of the sediment cores point out the high heterogeneity of the deposits at VA, and major turbiditic events at both sites. At the DYFAMED site, we observed direct anthropogenic influence in the upper sediment layer (<2 cm), while on the Var Canyon site (VA), the anthropization concerns the whole sedimentary column sampled (19 cm). Turbiditic events superimpose their specific signature on trace metal distributions. According to the 210Pbxs-derived sedimentation rate at the DYFAMED site (0.4 mm yr-1), the Hg-enriched layer of the top core corresponds to the sediment accumulation of the last 50 years, which is the period of the highest increase in Hg deposition on a global scale. With the hypothesis of the absence of significant post-depositional redistribution of Hg, the Hg/C-org ratio changes between the surface and below are used to estimate the anthropogenic contribution to the Hg flux accumulated in the sediment. The Hg enrichment, from pre-industrial to the present time is calculated to be around 60%, consistent with estimations of global Hg models. However, based on the chemical composition of the trapped material collected in sediment traps, we calculated that epibenthic mobilization of Hg would reach 73%. Conversely, the Cd/C-org ratio decreases in the upper 5 cm, which may reflect the recent decrease of atmospheric Cd inputs or losses due to diagenetic processes.

The Global Plankton Database: an inventory and data from the Former Soviet Union expeditions

At present time, there is a lack of knowledge on the interannual climate-related variability of zooplankton communities of the tropical Atlantic, central Mediterranean Sea, Caspian Sea, and Aral Sea, due to the absence of appropriate databases. In the mid latitudes, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the dominant mode of atmospheric fluctuations over eastern North America, the northern Atlantic Ocean and Europe. Therefore, one of the issues that need to be addressed through data synthesis is the evaluation of interannual patterns in species abundance and species diversity over these regions in regard to the NAO. The database has been used to investigate the ecological role of the NAO in interannual variations of mesozooplankton abundance and biomass along the zonal array of the NAO influence. Basic approach to the proposed research involved: (1) development of co-operation between experts and data holders in Ukraine, Russia, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, UK, and USA to rescue and compile the oceanographic data sets and release them on CD-ROM, (2) organization and compilation of a database based on FSU cruises to the above regions, (3) analysis of the basin-scale interannual variability of the zooplankton species abundance, biomass, and species diversity.

Global adaptation of spring bread and durum wheat lines near-isogenic for major reduced height genes

The effect of major dwarfing genes, Rht-B1 and Rht-D1, in bread (Triticum aestivum L.) and durum (Triticum turgidum L. var. durum) wheats varies with environment. Six reduced-height near-isogenic spring wheat lines, included in the International Adaptation Trial (IAT), were grown in 81 trials around the world. Of the 56 IAT trials yielding > 3 Mg ha(-1), the mean yield of semidwarfs was significantly greater than tails in 54% of trials; in the 27 trials yielding < 3 Mg ha-1, semidwarfs were superior in only 24%. Sixteen pairs of semidwarf-tall near-isolines were grown in six managed drought environment trials (DETs) in northwestern Mexico. In these trials, semidwarfs outyielded talls in all but the most droughted environment (2.5 Mg ha(-1)). The effect of the height alleles varied with genetic background and environment. For both yield and height, variance components for allele and environment by allele interaction were larger than those for genetic background and genetic background by environment. Pattern analysis showed that tall and semidwarf lines had similar adaptation to stressed environments (< 2.8 Mg ha(-1), low rainfall), while semidwarfs yielded more in less stressed environments (> 4.3 Mg ha(-1), high rainfall). The best adapted near-isogenic pair had a Kauz background, where the tall was only 16% taller than the dwarf. In the Kauz-derived pair, the semidwarf outyielded the tall in only 13% of trials with no differences in low yielding trials. This supports the idea that '' short talls '' may be useful in marginal environments (yield < 3 Mg ha(-1)).

Efectos de la temperatura sobre el peso seco, concentración de aceite y la proporción de ácidos grasos en el aceite de frutos de olivo (Olea europaea L. var Arauco)

Las respuestas de los componentes del rendimiento y de la calidad del aceite a la temperatura aún no han sido estudiadas en olivo ni en otras oleaginosas que acumulan aceite principalmente en mesocarpo (cerca de 95 por ciento del total en el caso de olivo). La información disponible en olivo se basa en correlaciones ligadas a variaciones en ubicación geográfica, altitud y años en los que pudieron covariar con la temperatura otros factores (radiación, disponibilidad hídrica, nutrición, etc). El objetivo de esta tesis fue evaluar el rol de la temperatura durante el crecimiento de frutos de olivo sobre el peso seco de los mismos, su contenido y concentración de aceite y las proporciones de ácidos grasos del aceite. Se realizaron experimentos manipulativos aplicados a ramas fructíferas creciendo a campo, utilizando cámaras transparentes con control y registro de temperatura. Los rangos de temperaturas medias alcanzados (entre 15-32 ºC) fueron mucho mayores a los rangos de 1 y 4 ºC logrados en estudios correlativos y permitieron generar relaciones funcionales para el peso seco del fruto, su concentración de aceite, y la proporción de ácidos grasos en el aceite. El contraste entre aplicaciones de temperaturas mayores o menores al ambiente durante períodos largos (114 días) y cortos (30 días) demostraron que tanto la proporción de aceite del fruto como la de ácido oleico en el aceite de fruto entero (mesocarpo + semilla) disminuye al aumentar la temperatura. Si bien en ambas estructuras del fruto la temperatura tuvo un efecto negativo sobre la concentración de aceite, las respuestas a la temperatura de la proporción de ácidos grasos de la semilla y el mesocarpo, medidos en forma separada, difirieron entre sí. Los patrones de respuesta de las proporciones de ácidos grasos en el aceite de semilla mostraron similitudes con las conocidas para especies oleaginosas de semilla como girasol. Por contraste, en el aceite de mesocarpo de olivo la proporción de ácido oleico disminuyó con el aumento de la temperatura, patrón opuesto a lo manifestado en semillas de olivo y en las de oleaginosas anuales. En esta tesis también se evaluó el efecto de la temperatura mínima nocturna sobre el crecimiento de los frutos y la calidad del aceite. Los resultados sugieren que la temperatura mínima nocturna y la amplitud térmica diarias son las dimensiones del régimen térmico diario con los que mejor se asociaron los cambios en el peso seco del fruto, la proporción de aceite y las proporciones de ácidos grasos en el mismo. Los resultados de esta tesis sirven para guiar la selección de sitios de plantación de nuevos olivares basados en los registros térmicos zonales, y para explicar los desajustes de la proporción de ácidos grasos del aceite de oliva producido en el NOA y la normativa del Consejo Oleícola Internacional (COI). Las relaciones funcionales entre las variables respuesta y la temperatura definidas podrán incorporarse en modelos de simulación del rendimiento y calidad que se desarrollen en el futuro. Tomados en conjunto con la tendencia al aumento de la temperatura, producto del calentamiento global, los resultados permitirán estimar la magnitud de los impactos negativos que podrían afectar el rendimiento del cultivo y la calidad del aceite.