MODELLING AND FORECASTING INFLATION RATES IN GHANA: AN APPLICATION OF SARIMA MODELS

Ghana faces a macroeconomic problem of inflation for a long period of time. The problem in somehow slows the economic growth in this country. As we all know, inflation is one of the major economic challenges facing most countries in the world especially those in African including Ghana. Therefore, forecasting inflation rates in Ghana becomes very important for its government to design economic strategies or effective monetary policies to combat any unexpected high inflation in this country. This paper studies seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model to forecast inflation rates in Ghana. Using monthly inflation data from July 1991 to December 2009, we find that ARIMA (1,1,1)(0,0,1)12 can represent the data behavior of inflation rate in Ghana well. Based on the selected model, we forecast seven (7) months inflation rates of Ghana outside the sample period (i.e. from January 2010 to July 2010). The observed inflation rate from January to April which was published by Ghana Statistical Service Department fall within the 95% confidence interval obtained from the designed model. The forecasted results show a decreasing pattern and a turning point of Ghana inflation in the month of July.

Estudio de caso. “el papel de los refugiados en la implementación de la política de libre circulación de la cedeao: visto desde el flujo de Liberia a Ghana”

Este estudio de caso tiene como objetivo determinar las implicaciones del flujo de población refugiada en la implementación de la política de libre circulación de la CEDEAO; tomando como referente el flujo desde Liberia hacia Ghana generado por la Guerra Civil. Esta investigación defiende que las implicaciones pueden estar relacionadas a las dinámicas que se asocian al movimiento de personas, las cuales pueden ser negativas o positivas, razón por la cual los Estados pueden reaccionar endureciendo las políticas migratorias, la obtención de permisos laborales y de residencia, y el cierre de fronteras o la expulsión de refugiados; con el fin de evitar consecuencias a nivel político, económico o en materia de seguridad. Para comprobar lo anterior se va a realizará un análisis de texto, sobre posiciones nacionales y políticas comunitarias, así como una revisión de estudios y estadísticas relacionados con el tema.

Inflation Uncertainty, Exchange Rate Depreciation and Volatility: Evidence from Ghana, Mozambique and Tanzania

While flexible exchange rates facilitate stabilisation, exchange rate fluctuations can cause real volatility. This gives policy importance to the causal relationship between exchange rate depreciation and its volatility. An exchange rate may be expected to become more volatile when the underlying currency loses value. We conjecture that a reverse causation, which further weakens the currency, may be mitigated by price stability. Data from Ghana, Mozambique and Tanzania support this: depreciation makes exchange rate more volatile for all but volatility does not causes depreciation in Tanzania which has enjoyed a more stable inflation despite all countries adopting similar macro-policies since early 1990s.

Inflation targeting and macroeconomic stability in a Post Keynesian economy

This paper examines the compatibility of inflation targeting with an economy that is Post Keynesian in character. We show that in a Post Keynesian environment, policymakers can both set and achieve an inflation target without adverse consequences for the real economy, as long as an appropriate policy mix is chosen. The latitude that policymakers have in making this choice is investigated. One of our key results is that orthodox policy regimes do not provide appropriate policy mixes. Indeed, the more orthodox the policy regime becomes, the less viable is inflation targeting in a Post Keynesian economy.

Inflation Targeting Matters: Evidence from OECD Economies` Sacrifice Ratios

Using data from OECD economies, we show that inflation targeters suffered smaller output losses during disinflations when compared to nontargeters. We also study why some countries choose to inflation target while others do not and find that higher average inflation and smaller debt levels render the adoption of the regime more likely. Applying Heckman`s procedure to control for selection bias does not alter the link between inflation targeting and less costly disinflations.

Who chooses to inflation target?

In this article, we seek what are the factors behind a country`s decision to move to Inflation Targeting. We find that high past inflation, low debt levels and the absence of a nominal exchange rate anchor increase the probability that a country will end up opting for it. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Inflation targeting in emerging economies: What do the data say?

In a recent thought-provoking paper, Ball and Sheridan [Ball, L., Sheridan, N., 2005. Does inflation targeting matter? In: Bernanke, B.S., Woodford, M. (Eds.), The Inflation-Targeting Debate, University of Chicago Press] show that the available evidence for a group of developed economies does not lend credence to the belief that adopting an inflation targeting regime (IT) was instrumental in bringing inflation and inflation volatility down. Here, we extend Ball and Sheridan`s analysis for a subset of 36 emerging market economies and find that, for them, the story is quite different. Compared to non-targeters, developing countries adopting the IT regime not only experienced greater drops in inflation, but also in growth volatility, thus corroborating the view that the regime`s ""constrained flexibility"" to deal with adverse shocks delivered concrete welfare gains. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Political conditions for successful inflation stabilization: comparing Brazil and Argentina

This study tries to understand how Brazil and Argentina, two countries with chronically high inflation, achieved permanent stabilization by looking at political factors necessary for stabilization. It suggests that, although state autonomy or political unity may contribute to successful price stabilization, reconciling the interests of different stakeholders and thereby building a broad political support base is more essential for stabilization to succeed. Political skills of the leaders and compensatory policies may help raise such support and they are more crucial where other political conditions are less favorable. Also, rapid improvement in the economy is important for sustained political support, and thus, for successful stabilization.

Inflation forecasts using the tips yield curve

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Nominal and inflation-linked government bonds: An assessment of arbitrage opportunities in UK Gilt Market

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Rebalancing frequency and the welfare cost of inflation

Cash-in-advance models usually require agents to reallocate money and bonds in fixed periods, every month or quarter, for example. I show that fixed periods underestimate the welfare cost of inflation. I use a model in which agents choose how often they exchange bonds for money. In the benchmark specification, the welfare cost of ten percent instead of zero inflation increases from 0.1 percent of income with fixed periods to one percent with optimal periods. The results are robust to different preferences, to different compositions of income in bonds or money, and to the introduction of capital and labor.

Rebalancing frequency and the welfare cost of inflation

Cash-in-advance models usually require agents to reallocate money and bonds in fixed periods. Every month or quarter, for example. I show that fixed periods underestimate the welfare cost of inflation. I use a model in which agents choose how often they exchange bonds for money. In the benchmark specification, the welfare cost of 10 percent instead of 0 inflation increases from 0.1 percent of income with fixed periods to 1 percent with optimal periods. The results are robust to different references, to different compositions of income in bonds or money, and to the introduction of capital and labor.

Contribution of Mental Health Service User Groups to Mental Health Services and Policy in Ghana : The Case of Mental Health Society of Ghana

RESUMO: Este estudo procurou documentar a perspectiva (s) dos utentes de saúde mental e das associações de prestadores de cuidados sobre a prestação, o papel e a contribuição de serviços de saúde mental da comunidade tal como foram percebidos por um número de informadores-chave, incluindo os utentes do serviço mentais e os próprios prestadores de cuidados. O caso específico da Sociedade Saúde Mental do Gana (MEHSOG) foi o foco deste estudo. O modelo foi o de um estudo de caso, utilizando discussões de grupo e entrevistas com informadores-chave como instrumentos de recolha de dados. Estas ferramentas de colheita de dados foram complementadas por observações dos participantes e pela revisão de documentos da MEHSOG e dos vários grupos de apoio da comunidade de auto-ajuda que compõem a associação nacional. O estudo revelou que os utentes dos serviços de saúde mental e seus prestadores de cuidados constituem um importante grupo de partes interessadas na prestação de serviços de saúde mental da comunidade e no desenvolvimento de políticas que tenham em conta as necessidades e os direitos das pessoas com doença mental ou epilepsia. O envolvimento da MEHSOG promove a mobilização de membros e famílias relacionadas com a doença mental de beneficiar de serviços de tratamento bem organizados com um impacto significativo na melhoria da saúde e da participação dos utentes dos serviços e seus prestadores de cuidados primários em processos de tomada de decisão da família e na comunidade processos de desenvolvimento. Os utentes dos serviços por beneficiarem de tratamento, e os prestadores de cuidados primários, por se tornarem mais livres e menos sobrecarregados com a responsabilidade de cuidar, podem passar a envolver-se mais em atividades que melhoramo seu estado, o de suas famílias e das comunidades. A advocacia dos membros da MEHSOG para conseguir que a “Mental Health Bill” se transforme numa Lei foi também um desenvolvimento significativo resultante da participação ativa dos utentes do serviço em chamar a atenção para uma nova e inclusiva legislação de saúde mental para o Gana. Entre os fatores e oportunidades que permitiram aos utentes dos serviços de saúde mental e aos prestadores de cuidados primários de pessoas com doença mental apoiar activamente a prestação de serviços de saúde mental comunitária e o desenvolvimento de políticas conta-se a contribuição da sociedade civil do Gana, particularmente o movimento da deficiência, e os esforços anteriores de ONGs em saúde mental e dos profissionais de saúde mental para ter uma nova lei em saúde mental. Observámos um certo número de desafios e barreiras que actuam de forma a limitar a influência dos utentes dos serviços de saúde mental na provisão da saúde mental comunitária e no desenvolvimento de políticas. Entre elas o estigma social contra a doença mental e pessoas com doença mental ou epilepsia e seus cuidadores primaries é um factor chave. O estigma tem alterado a percepção e as análises do público em geral, especialmente dos profissionais de saúde e das autoridades políticas afetando a priorização dos problemas de saúde mental nas políticas e programas. Outro desafio foi a deficiente infra-estrutura disponível para apoiar serviços de saúde mentais que assegurem aos utentes permanecerem em bom estado de saúde e bem-estar para serem advogados de si próprios. A recomendação do presente estudo é que os movimentos de utentes dos serviços de saúde mental são importantes e que eles precisam de ser apoiados e encorajados a desempenhar o seu papel como pessoas com experiência vivida para contribuir para a organização e prestação de serviços de saúde mental, bem como para a implementação, monitorização e avaliação de políticas e programas. ------------------------------------ ABSTRACT: This study sought to document the perspective(s) of mental health users and care-givers associations in community mental health service provision and their role and contribution as it was perceived by a number of key informants including the mental service users and care-givers themselves. The specific case of the Mental Health Society of Ghana (MEHSOG) was the focus of this study. A case study approach was used to with Focus Group Discussions and Key Informants Interviews being the data collection tools that were used. These data collection tools were complemented by participant observations and review of documents of the MEHSOG and the various community self-help peer support groups that make up the national association. The study revealed that mental health service users and their care-givers constitute an important stakeholder group in community mental health service provision and development of policies that factor in the needs and rights of persons with mental illness or epilepsy. MEHSOG’s involvement in mobilising members and education families to come forward with the relations with mental illness to benefit from treatment services were well made a significant impact in improving the health and participation of service users and their primary carers in family decision-making processes and in community development processes. Service users, on benefiting from treatment, and primary care-givers, on becoming freer and less burdened with the responsibility of care, move on to engage in secure livelihoods activities, which enhanced their status in their families and communities. The advocacy MEHSOG members undertook in getting the mental health Bill become Law was also noted as significant development that was realised as a result of active involvement of service users in calling for a new and inclusive mental health legislation for Ghana. Enabling factors and opportunities that enabled mental health service users and primary care-givers of people with mental illness to actively support community mental health service provision and policy development is with the vibrant civil society presence in Ghana, particularly the disability movement, and earlier efforts by NGOs in mental health in Ghana long-side mental health professionals to have a new law in mental health. A number of challenges were also noted which were found to limit the extent to which mental health service users can be influential in community mental health service provision and policy development. Key among them was the social stigma against mental illness and people with mental illness or epilepsy and their primary carers. Stigma has affected perceptions, analyses of the general public, especially health practitioners and policy authorities that it has affected their prioritisation of mental health issues in policies and programmes. Another challenge was the poor infrastructure available to support enhanced mental health care services that ensure mental health service users remain in a good state of health and wellbeing to advocate for themselves. The recommendation from the study is that mental health service user movements are important and need to be supported and encouraged to play their role as persons with lived experience to inform organisation and provision of mental health services as well as design and implementation, monitoring and evaluation of policies and programes.