Formal theory building for the avalanche game: explaining counter-intuitive behaviour of a complex system using geometrical and human behavioural/physiological effects

In 'Avalanche', an object is lowered, players staying in contact throughout. Normally the task is easily accomplished. However, with larger groups counter-intuitive behaviours appear. The paper proposes a formal theory for the underlying causal mechanisms. The aim is to not only provide an explicit, testable hypothesis for the source of the observed modes of behaviour-but also to exemplify the contribution that formal theory building can make to understanding complex social phenomena. Mapping reveals the importance of geometry to the Avalanche game; each player has a pair of balancing loops, one involved in lowering the object, the other ensuring contact. For more players, sets of balancing loops interact and these can allow dominance by reinforcing loops, causing the system to chase upwards towards an ever-increasing goal. However, a series of other effects concerning human physiology and behaviour (HPB) is posited as playing a role. The hypothesis is therefore rigorously tested using simulation. For simplicity a 'One Degree of Freedom' case is examined, allowing all of the effects to be included whilst rendering the analysis more transparent. Formulation and experimentation with the model gives insight into the behaviours. Multi-dimensional rate/level analysis indicates that there is only a narrow region in which the system is able to move downwards. Model runs reproduce the single 'desired' mode of behaviour and all three of the observed 'problematic' ones. Sensitivity analysis gives further insight into the system's modes and their causes. Behaviour is seen to arise only when the geometric effects apply (number of players greater than degrees of freedom of object) in combination with a range of HPB effects. An analogy exists between the co-operative behaviour required here and various examples: conflicting strategic objectives in organizations; Prisoners' Dilemma and integrated bargaining situations. Additionally, the game may be relatable in more direct algebraic terms to situations involving companies in which the resulting behaviours are mediated by market regulations. Finally, comment is offered on the inadequacy of some forms of theory building and the case is made for formal theory building involving the use of models, analysis and plausible explanations to create deep understanding of social phenomena.

Understanding three-dimensional effects in polarized observations with the ground-based ADMIRARI radiometer during the CHUVA campaign

Measurements of down-welling microwave radiation from raining clouds performed with the Advanced Microwave Radiometer for Rain Identification (ADMIRARI) radiometer at 10.7-21-36.5 GHz during the Global Precipitation Measurement Ground Validation ""Cloud processes of the main precipitation systems in Brazil: A contribution to cloud resolving modeling and to the Global Precipitation Measurement"" (CHUVA) campaign held in Brazil in March 2010 represent a unique test bed for understanding three-dimensional (3D) effects in microwave radiative transfer processes. While the necessity of accounting for geometric effects is trivial given the slant observation geometry (ADMIRARI was pointing at a fixed 30 elevation angle), the polarization signal (i.e., the difference between the vertical and horizontal brightness temperatures) shows ubiquitousness of positive values both at 21.0 and 36.5 GHz in coincidence with high brightness temperatures. This signature is a genuine and unique microwave signature of radiation side leakage which cannot be explained in a 1D radiative transfer frame but necessitates the inclusion of three-dimensional scattering effects. We demonstrate these effects and interdependencies by analyzing two campaign case studies and by exploiting a sophisticated 3D radiative transfer suited for dichroic media like precipitating clouds.

Identification of Neoplasias of Breast Tissues Using a Powder Diffractometer

An investigation was carried out to study the potential use of the angular distribution of scattered photons by human breast samples for a rapid identification of neoplasias of breast tissues. This technique has possible applications as diagnostic aid for breast cancer. In this work, a commercial powder diffractometer was used to obtain the scattering profiles from breast tissues histopathologically classified as normal breast tissues, fibroadenomas (benign breast diseases) and carcinomas (malignant breast diseases), in the interval 0.02 angstrom(-1) < x < 0.62 angstrom(-1). The experimental methods and data corrections are discussed in detail, and they included background subtraction, polarization, self-attenuation and geometric effects. The validation of the experimental procedure was achieved through an analysis of water sample. The results showed that the scattering profile is a unique impression of each type of tissue, being correlated with their microscopic morphological features. Multivariate analysis was applied to these profiles in order to verify if the information carried by these scattering profiles allow the differentiation between normal, benign and malignant breast tissues. The statistical analysis results showed that a correct identification of 75% of the analyzed samples is accomplished. The values of sensibility and specificity of this method in correctly differentiating between normal and neoplastic samples were 95.6% and 82.3%, respectively, while the values for differentiation between benign and malignant neoplasias were 78.6% and 62.5%. These initial results indicate the feasible use of commercial powder diffractometer to provide a rapid diagnostic with a high sensitivity.

A modified structural stress method for fatigue assessment of welded structures

Fatigue life assessment of weldedstructures is commonly based on the nominal stress method, but more flexible and accurate methods have been introduced. In general, the assessment accuracy is improved as more localized information about the weld is incorporated. The structural hot spot stress method includes the influence of macro geometric effects and structural discontinuities on the design stress but excludes the local features of the weld. In this thesis, the limitations of the structural hot spot stress method are discussed and a modified structural stress method with improved accuracy is developed and verified for selected welded details. The fatigue life of structures in the as-welded state consists mainly of crack growth from pre-existing cracks or defects. Crack growth rate depends on crack geometry and the stress state on the crack face plane. This means that the stress level and shape of the stress distribution in the assumed crack path governs thetotal fatigue life. In many structural details the stress distribution is similar and adequate fatigue life estimates can be obtained just by adjusting the stress level based on a single stress value, i.e., the structural hot spot stress. There are, however, cases for which the structural stress approach is less appropriate because the stress distribution differs significantly from the more common cases. Plate edge attachments and plates on elastic foundations are some examples of structures with this type of stress distribution. The importance of fillet weld size and weld load variation on the stress distribution is another central topic in this thesis. Structural hot spot stress determination is generally based on a procedure that involves extrapolation of plate surface stresses. Other possibilities for determining the structural hot spot stress is to extrapolate stresses through the thickness at the weld toe or to use Dong's method which includes through-thickness extrapolation at some distance from the weld toe. Both of these latter methods are less sensitive to the FE mesh used. Structural stress based on surface extrapolation is sensitive to the extrapolation points selected and to the FE mesh used near these points. Rules for proper meshing, however, are well defined and not difficult to apply. To improve the accuracy of the traditional structural hot spot stress, a multi-linear stress distribution is introduced. The magnitude of the weld toe stress after linearization is dependent on the weld size, weld load and plate thickness. Simple equations have been derived by comparing assessment results based on the local linear stress distribution and LEFM based calculations. The proposed method is called the modified structural stress method (MSHS) since the structural hot spot stress (SHS) value is corrected using information on weld size andweld load. The correction procedure is verified using fatigue test results found in the literature. Also, a test case was conducted comparing the proposed method with other local fatigue assessment methods.

Activity and sulfur resistance of Rh(I) and Pd(II) complexes

Two complexes of Rh(I) and Pd(II) with chloride and tridecylamine ligands were obtained and characterized by Elementary Analysis and by XPS and FTIR spectroscopies. Complexes anchored on γ-Al2O3 were tested in the styrene semi-hydrogenation reaction carried out in the absence or presence of a sulfur poison. Although both low loaded catalysts were highly selective, the Pd(II) complex was three times more active than the Rh(I) complex. The rhodium complex was more sulfur resistant but less active than the palladium complex. Differences in conversion and sulfur resistance between both complexes could be related to electronic and/or geometric effects.

Radiation balance at the surface in the city of So Paulo, Brazil: diurnal and seasonal variations

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Um estudo sobre os conhecimentos geométricos adquiridos por alunos do ensino médio

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Radiation balance at the surface in the city of So Paulo, Brazil: diurnal and seasonal variations

The main goal of this work is to describe the diurnal and seasonal variations of the radiation balance components at the surface in the city of So Paulo based on observations carried out during 2004. Monthly average hourly values indicate that the amplitudes of the diurnal cycles of net radiation (Q*), downwelling and upwelling shortwave radiation (SW(DW), SW(UP)), and longwave radiations (LW(DW), LW(UP)) in February were, respectively, 37%, 14%, 19%, 11%, and 5% larger than they were in August. The monthly average daily values indicate a variation of 60% for Q*, with a minimum in June and a maximum in December; 45% for SW(DW), with a minimum in May and a maximum in September; 50% for SW(UP), with a minimum in June and a maximum in September; 13% for LW(DW), with a minimum in July and a maximum in January; and 9% for LW(UP), with a minimum in July and a maximum in February. It was verified that the atmospheric broadband transmissivity varied from 0.36 to 0.57; the effective albedo of the surface varied from 0.08 to 0.10; and the atmospheric effective emissivity varied from 0.79 to 0.92. The surface effective emissivity remained approximately constant and equal to 0.96. The albedo and surface effective emissivity for So Paulo agreed with those reported for urban areas in Europe and North America cities. This indicates that material and geometric effects on albedo and surface emissivity in So Paulo are similar to ones observed in typical middle latitudes cities. On the other hand, it was found that So Paulo city induces an urban heat island with daytime maximum intensity varying from 2.6A degrees C in July (16:00 LT) to 5.5A degrees C in September (15:00 LT). The analysis of the radiometric properties carried out here indicate that this daytime maximum is a primary response to the seasonal variation of daily values of net solar radiation at the surface.

Exploring nu signals in dark matter detectors

We investigate standard and non-standard solar neutrino signals in direct dark matter detection experiments. It is well known that even without new physics, scattering of solar neutrinos on nuclei or electrons is an irreducible background for direct dark matter searches, once these experiments reach the ton scale. Here, we entertain the possibility that neutrino interactions are enhanced by new physics, such as new light force carriers (for instance a "dark photon") or neutrino magnetic moments. We consider models with only the three standard neutrino flavors, as well as scenarios with extra sterile neutrinos. We find that low-energy neutrino-electron and neutrino-nucleus scattering rates can be enhanced by several orders of magnitude, potentially enough to explain the event excesses observed in CoGeNT and CRESST. We also investigate temporal modulation in these neutrino signals, which can arise from geometric effects, oscillation physics, non-standard neutrino energy loss, and direction-dependent detection efficiencies. We emphasize that, in addition to providing potential explanations for existing signals, models featuring new physics in the neutrino sector can also be very relevant to future dark matter searches, where, on the one hand, they can be probed and constrained, but on the other hand, their signatures could also be confused with dark matter signals.

Lateral instability of slender reinforced concrete columns in a fire environment

The research concerns the development and application of an analytical computer program, SAFE-ROC, that models material behaviour and structural behaviour of a slender reinforced concrete column that is part of an overall structure and is subjected to elevated temperatures as a result of exposure to fire. The analysis approach used in SAFE-RCC is non-linear. Computer calculations are used that take account of restraint and continuity, and the interaction of the column with the surrounding structure during the fire. Within a given time step an iterative approach is used to find a deformed shape for the column which results in equilibrium between the forces associated with the external loads and internal stresses and degradation. Non-linear geometric effects are taken into account by updating the geometry of the structure during deformation. The structural response program SAFE-ROC includes a total strain model which takes account of the compatibility of strain due to temperature and loading. The total strain model represents a constitutive law that governs the material behaviour for concrete and steel. The material behaviour models employed for concrete and steel take account of the dimensional changes caused by the temperature differentials and changes in the material mechanical properties with changes in temperature. Non-linear stress-strain laws are used that take account of loading to a strain greater than that corresponding to the peak stress of the concrete stress-strain relation, and model the inelastic deformation associated with unloading of the steel stress-strain relation. The cross section temperatures caused by the fire environment are obtained by a preceding non-linear thermal analysis, a computer program FIRES-T.

Protective effects of Mangifera indica L extract (Vimang), and its major component mangiferin, on iron-induced oxidative damage to rat serum and liver

In vivo preventive effects of a Mangifera indica L extract (Vimang) or its major component mangiferin on iron overload injury have been studied in rats given respectively, 50, 100, 250 mg kg(-1) body weight of Vimang, or 40 mg kg(-1) body weight of mangiferin, for 7 days prior to, and for 7 days following the administration of toxic amounts of iron-dextran. Both Vimang or mangiferin treatment prevented iron overload in serum as well as liver oxidative stress, decreased serum and liver lipid peroxidation, serum GPx activity, and increased serum and liver GSH, serum SOD and the animals overall antioxidant condition. Serum iron concentration was decreased although at higher doses, Vimang tended to increase it; percent tranferrin saturation, liver weight/body mass ratios, liver iron content was decreased. Treatment increased serum iron-binding capacity and decreased serum levels of aspartate-amine transferase (ASAT) and alanine-amine transferase (ALAT), as well as the number of abnormal Kupffer cells in iron-loaded livers. It is suggested that besides acting as antioxidants, Vimang extract or its mangiferin component decrease liver iron by increasing its excretion. Complementing earlier in vitro results from our group, it appears possible to support the hypothesis that Vimang and mangiferin present therapeutically useful effects in iron overload related diseases. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Vertex component analysis: a geometric-based approach to unmix hyperspectral data

Hyperspectral remote sensing exploits the electromagnetic scattering patterns of the different materials at specific wavelengths [2, 3]. Hyperspectral sensors have been developed to sample the scattered portion of the electromagnetic spectrum extending from the visible region through the near-infrared and mid-infrared, in hundreds of narrow contiguous bands [4, 5]. The number and variety of potential civilian and military applications of hyperspectral remote sensing is enormous [6, 7]. Very often, the resolution cell corresponding to a single pixel in an image contains several substances (endmembers) [4]. In this situation, the scattered energy is a mixing of the endmember spectra. A challenging task underlying many hyperspectral imagery applications is then decomposing a mixed pixel into a collection of reflectance spectra, called endmember signatures, and the corresponding abundance fractions [8–10]. Depending on the mixing scales at each pixel, the observed mixture is either linear or nonlinear [11, 12]. Linear mixing model holds approximately when the mixing scale is macroscopic [13] and there is negligible interaction among distinct endmembers [3, 14]. If, however, the mixing scale is microscopic (or intimate mixtures) [15, 16] and the incident solar radiation is scattered by the scene through multiple bounces involving several endmembers [17], the linear model is no longer accurate. Linear spectral unmixing has been intensively researched in the last years [9, 10, 12, 18–21]. It considers that a mixed pixel is a linear combination of endmember signatures weighted by the correspondent abundance fractions. Under this model, and assuming that the number of substances and their reflectance spectra are known, hyperspectral unmixing is a linear problem for which many solutions have been proposed (e.g., maximum likelihood estimation [8], spectral signature matching [22], spectral angle mapper [23], subspace projection methods [24,25], and constrained least squares [26]). In most cases, the number of substances and their reflectances are not known and, then, hyperspectral unmixing falls into the class of blind source separation problems [27]. Independent component analysis (ICA) has recently been proposed as a tool to blindly unmix hyperspectral data [28–31]. ICA is based on the assumption of mutually independent sources (abundance fractions), which is not the case of hyperspectral data, since the sum of abundance fractions is constant, implying statistical dependence among them. This dependence compromises ICA applicability to hyperspectral images as shown in Refs. [21, 32]. In fact, ICA finds the endmember signatures by multiplying the spectral vectors with an unmixing matrix, which minimizes the mutual information among sources. If sources are independent, ICA provides the correct unmixing, since the minimum of the mutual information is obtained only when sources are independent. This is no longer true for dependent abundance fractions. Nevertheless, some endmembers may be approximately unmixed. These aspects are addressed in Ref. [33]. Under the linear mixing model, the observations from a scene are in a simplex whose vertices correspond to the endmembers. Several approaches [34–36] have exploited this geometric feature of hyperspectral mixtures [35]. Minimum volume transform (MVT) algorithm [36] determines the simplex of minimum volume containing the data. The method presented in Ref. [37] is also of MVT type but, by introducing the notion of bundles, it takes into account the endmember variability usually present in hyperspectral mixtures. The MVT type approaches are complex from the computational point of view. Usually, these algorithms find in the first place the convex hull defined by the observed data and then fit a minimum volume simplex to it. For example, the gift wrapping algorithm [38] computes the convex hull of n data points in a d-dimensional space with a computational complexity of O(nbd=2cþ1), where bxc is the highest integer lower or equal than x and n is the number of samples. The complexity of the method presented in Ref. [37] is even higher, since the temperature of the simulated annealing algorithm used shall follow a log( ) law [39] to assure convergence (in probability) to the desired solution. Aiming at a lower computational complexity, some algorithms such as the pixel purity index (PPI) [35] and the N-FINDR [40] still find the minimum volume simplex containing the data cloud, but they assume the presence of at least one pure pixel of each endmember in the data. This is a strong requisite that may not hold in some data sets. In any case, these algorithms find the set of most pure pixels in the data. PPI algorithm uses the minimum noise fraction (MNF) [41] as a preprocessing step to reduce dimensionality and to improve the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR). The algorithm then projects every spectral vector onto skewers (large number of random vectors) [35, 42,43]. The points corresponding to extremes, for each skewer direction, are stored. A cumulative account records the number of times each pixel (i.e., a given spectral vector) is found to be an extreme. The pixels with the highest scores are the purest ones. N-FINDR algorithm [40] is based on the fact that in p spectral dimensions, the p-volume defined by a simplex formed by the purest pixels is larger than any other volume defined by any other combination of pixels. This algorithm finds the set of pixels defining the largest volume by inflating a simplex inside the data. ORA SIS [44, 45] is a hyperspectral framework developed by the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory consisting of several algorithms organized in six modules: exemplar selector, adaptative learner, demixer, knowledge base or spectral library, and spatial postrocessor. The first step consists in flat-fielding the spectra. Next, the exemplar selection module is used to select spectral vectors that best represent the smaller convex cone containing the data. The other pixels are rejected when the spectral angle distance (SAD) is less than a given thresh old. The procedure finds the basis for a subspace of a lower dimension using a modified Gram–Schmidt orthogonalizati on. The selected vectors are then projected onto this subspace and a simplex is found by an MV T pro cess. ORA SIS is oriented to real-time target detection from uncrewed air vehicles using hyperspectral data [46]. In this chapter we develop a new algorithm to unmix linear mixtures of endmember spectra. First, the algorithm determines the number of endmembers and the signal subspace using a newly developed concept [47, 48]. Second, the algorithm extracts the most pure pixels present in the data. Unlike other methods, this algorithm is completely automatic and unsupervised. To estimate the number of endmembers and the signal subspace in hyperspectral linear mixtures, the proposed scheme begins by estimating sign al and noise correlation matrices. The latter is based on multiple regression theory. The signal subspace is then identified by selectin g the set of signal eigenvalue s that best represents the data, in the least-square sense [48,49 ], we note, however, that VCA works with projected and with unprojected data. The extraction of the end members exploits two facts: (1) the endmembers are the vertices of a simplex and (2) the affine transformation of a simplex is also a simplex. As PPI and N-FIND R algorithms, VCA also assumes the presence of pure pixels in the data. The algorithm iteratively projects data on to a direction orthogonal to the subspace spanned by the endmembers already determined. The new end member signature corresponds to the extreme of the projection. The algorithm iterates until all end members are exhausted. VCA performs much better than PPI and better than or comparable to N-FI NDR; yet it has a computational complexity between on e and two orders of magnitude lower than N-FINDR. The chapter is structure d as follows. Section 19.2 describes the fundamentals of the proposed method. Section 19.3 and Section 19.4 evaluate the proposed algorithm using simulated and real data, respectively. Section 19.5 presents some concluding remarks.

Effects of two types of fatigue on the VO(2) slow component.

The aim of the study was to test the hypothesis of the involvement of type II fibres in the V.O (2) slow component phenomenon by using two prior fatiguing protocols on the knee extensor muscles. Nine subjects performed three constant-load cycling exercises at a work rate corresponding to 80 % of their V.O (2) max: (i) preceded by a 20-min fatiguing protocol using electromyostimulation (EMS), (ii) preceded by a 20-min fatiguing protocol using voluntary contractions (VOL), and (iii) without fatiguing protocol (NFP). Voluntary and evoked neuromuscular properties of the knee extensor muscles were tested before (PRE) and after (POST) the two fatiguing protocols. Results show a significant reduction in voluntary force after both fatiguing protocols (-19.9 % and -11.8 %, in EMS and VOL, respectively p<0.01). After EMS, this decrease was greater than after VOL (p<0.05) and was combined with a slackening of muscle contractile properties which was absent after VOL (p<0.05). Regarding the effects on oxygen uptake kinetics, the appearance of the slow component was delayed after EMS and its amplitude was lower than those obtained in VOL and NFP conditions (0.48+/-0.07 vs. 0.75+/-0.09 and 0.69+/-0.08 L . min (-1), respectively; p<0.05). It can thus be concluded that exercises dedicated to preferentially fatiguing type II fibres may alter V.O (2) kinetics.

The fixation of the cemented femoral component. Effects of stem stiffness, cement thickness and roughness of the cement-bone surface.

After cemented total hip arthroplasty (THA) there may be failure at either the cement-stem or the cement-bone interface. This results from the occurrence of abnormally high shear and compressive stresses within the cement and excessive relative micromovement. We therefore evaluated micromovement and stress at the cement-bone and cement-stem interfaces for a titanium and a chromium-cobalt stem. The behaviour of both implants was similar and no substantial differences were found in the size and distribution of micromovement on either interface with respect to the stiffness of the stem. Micromovement was minimal with a cement mantle 3 to 4 mm thick but then increased with greater thickness of the cement. Abnormally high micromovement occurred when the cement was thinner than 2 mm and the stem was made of titanium. The relative decrease in surface roughness augmented slipping but decreased debonding at the cement-bone interface. Shear stress at this site did not vary significantly for the different coefficients of cement-bone friction while compressive and hoop stresses within the cement increased slightly.

Effects of prior short multiple-sprint exercises with different intersprint recoveries on the slow component of oxygen uptake during high-intensity exercise.

This study compares the effects of two short multiple-sprint exercise (MSE) (6 × 6 s) sessions with two different recovery durations (30 s or 180 s) on the slow component of oxygen uptake ([Formula: see text]O(2)) during subsequent high-intensity exercise. Ten male subjects performed a 6-min cycling test at 50% of the difference between the gas exchange threshold and [Formula: see text]O(2peak) (Δ50). Then, the subjects performed two MSEs of 6 × 6 s separated by two intersprint recoveries of 30 s (MSE(30)) and 180 s (MSE(180)), followed 10 min later by the Δ50 (Δ50(30) and Δ50(180), respectively). Electromyography (EMG) activities of the vastus medialis and lateralis were measured throughout each exercise bout. During MSE(30), muscle activity (root mean square) increased significantly (p ≤ 0.04), with a significant leftward-shifted median frequency of the power density spectrum (MDF; p ≤ 0.01), whereas MDF was significantly rightward-shifted during MSE(180) (p = 0.02). The mean [Formula: see text]O(2) value was significantly higher in MSE(30) than in MSE(180) (p < 0.001). During Δ50(30), [Formula: see text]O(2) and the deoxygenated hemoglobin ([HHb]) slow components were significantly reduced (-27%, p = 0.02, and -34%, p = 0.003, respectively) compared with Δ50. There were no significant modifications of the [Formula: see text]O(2) slow component in Δ50(180) compared with Δ50 (p = 0.32). The neuromuscular and metabolic adaptations during MSE(30) (preferential activation of type I muscle fibers evidenced by decreased MDF and a greater aerobic metabolism contribution to the required energy demands), but not during MSE(180), may lead to reduced [Formula: see text]O(2) and [HHb] slow components, suggesting an alteration in motor units recruitment profile (i.e., change in the type of muscle fibers recruited) and (or) an improved muscle O(2) delivery during subsequent exercise.