Multifractal analysis of geomagnetic storm and solar flare indices and their class dependence

The multifractal properties of two indices of geomagnetic activity, D st (representative of low latitudes) and a p (representative of the global geomagnetic activity), with the solar X-ray brightness, X l , during the period from 1 March 1995 to 17 June 2003 are examined using multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA). The h(q) curves of D st and a p in the MF-DFA are similar to each other, but they are different from that of X l , indicating that the scaling properties of X l are different from those of D st and a p . Hence, one should not predict the magnitude of magnetic storms directly from solar X-ray observations. However, a strong relationship exists between the classes of the solar X-ray irradiance (the classes being chosen to separate solar flares of class X-M, class C, and class B or less, including no flares) in hourly measurements and the geomagnetic disturbances (large to moderate, small, or quiet) seen in D st and a p during the active period. Each time series was converted into a symbolic sequence using three classes. The frequency, yielding the measure representations, of the substrings in the symbolic sequences then characterizes the pattern of space weather events. Using the MF-DFA method and traditional multifractal analysis, we calculate the h(q), D(q), and τ (q) curves of the measure representations. The τ (q) curves indicate that the measure representations of these three indices are multifractal. On the basis of this three-class clustering, we find that the h(q), D(q), and τ (q) curves of the measure representations of these three indices are similar to each other for positive values of q. Hence, a positive flare storm class dependence is reflected in the scaling exponents h(q) in the MF-DFA and the multifractal exponents D(q) and τ (q). This finding indicates that the use of the solar flare classes could improve the prediction of the D st classes.

磁层-电离层耦合现象的分析研究

The magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling is mainly manifested by the trans- porting processes of energy into the ionosphere , the energy is carried by solar wind and firstly accumulate at the magnetosphere, and the coupling processes also significantly include the interaction between the magnetosphere and ionosphere for mass and energy. At the quiet condition, energy is delivered by the large-scale convection of the geomagnetic field; the huge energy from solar wind bulk will be injected into and consumed at the near magnetosphere and ionosphere by the geomagnetic storm and substorm activities. Aurorae and FACs (Field-aligned currents) are the important phenomena in the coupling processes. In the present work, firstly, we analyze the activity characteristics of auroral precipitating particle, secondly, we study the distribution characters of large-scale field aligned currents (LS FACs) at storm-time using the observations from different satellites at different altitudes. Finally, we investigate the evolution of the geomagnetic field configuration at the nightside sector on the onset of the expansion phase in a substorm event, the substorm event happened at 0430UT to 0630UT on 8th Nov. 2004. The main results as follows： At the first, the data of the estimated power input (EPI) of auroral particles from NOAA/POES (Polar orbiting environmental satellite) for some 30 years have been analyzed. The variation tendencies of the EPI generally coincide with aa, AE and Dst indices. The annual variation of EPI shows equinox peaks and an asymmetric-activity with a higher peak in the winter-hemisphere than in the summer-hemisphere. The diurnal UT variations are different from north and south hemisphere: for north hemisphere, the peak appears at 1200UT, and the relative deviation is 22% to the daily average of the north hemisphere. For south hemisphere, the maximal deviation is 22% at 2000UT. So the diurnal variation of EPI is more dominant than the annual variation which maximal deviation is 3% to 12% for different seasons. Studies on correlations of the hourly average of EPI, Pa, with AE and Dst indices show a correlation coefficient r=0.74 of Pa and AE, and r=-0.55 of Pa and Dst. The hourly EPIs for north and south polar regions, NPa and SPa, show a north-south asymmetry with a higher correlation of SPa and AE (or Dst). Time delays of EPI with respect to magnetic indices are examined, the maximum correlation coefficient of Pa with AE (r=0.78) occurs when the time delay =0, suggesting a synchronous activity of auroral electrojet and auroral precipitating particles, while =1-2h, the correlation coefficient of Pa with Dst is maximum (r=0.57), suggesting that the activity of auroral particle precipitating may influence the ring current on some extent. Sencondly, we use the high-resolution magnetic field vector data of the CHAMP satellite to investigate the distribution of large-scale FACs during the great magnetic storm on 7th to 8th Nov. 2004. The results show that, whether in the northern or southern hemisphere, the number and density of large-scale FACs during the main-phase are more and bigger than these during the recover-phase, and the number of large-scale FACs in morning sector obviously is more than that in afternoon sector. In terms of the magnetic indices, we find that large-scale FACs in morning sector significantly affected by the substorm activities, while in afternoon sector the large-scale FACs mainly indicate the fluctuations of the ring-current in storm time. Accordingly to the former studies, similarly, we find that in the morning sector, the scale of the large-scale FACs move to the high-latitude region, and in the afternoon sector, large-scale FACs distinctly expand to the low-latitude region. During the time periods that the NOAA/POES auroral precipitating particle power data temporally correspond to the large-scale FACs, the more the power of auroral particle is, the more and bigger the number and density of FACs are. At the same time, we use the magnetic field vector data of POLAR obtain a good form of region 1, region 2, and three pieces of cusp FACs during a single transit at 1930UT-2006UT on 07th. And the characteristics of simultaneous electric field and energy particles observations on Polar are coincide with the five FACs pieces. Finally, by means of the observation of Cluster 4 and Goes 10、 Goes 12, we analyze the evolution process of the change of the magnetic field configuration at night sector at the expansion phase of a substorm event which happened during 0430UT to 0630UT on 8th Nov. 2004, we find that the times of the beginning of the polarizations of magnetic field are observed from Goes 10 to Goes 12 then to Cluster 4. So, at the synchronous orbit ( 6.6 RE) to 10RE distance scale of the neutral sheet, the current disruption spread tailward. Simultaneously, the strengthen of the FACs deduced from these satellites’ magnetic field observations are almost consistent with the times of polarizations, as well as the high energy particles injection and the electric field dominant variation. The onset times determined by the magnetic field polarizations from these satellites are all ahead of the onset time that confirmed from the auroral electrojet indices. So, these characters of different observations can be used as the criterions to determine the onset time for the substorms of such type as we studied.

中低纬电离层暴的统计分析与经验建模

As a key issue of ionospheric weather study, systemic studies on ionospheric storms can not only further improve our understanding of the response of the ionosphere to solar and geomagnetic disturbances, but also help us to reveal the chemical, dynamic and electro-dynamic mechanisms during storms. Empirical modelling for regional ionospheric storm is also very useful, because it can provide us with tools and references for the forecasting and further practical application of ionospheric activity. In this thesis, we focus on describing and forecasting of ionospheric storms at middle and low latitudes. The main points of my investigations are listed as follows. (1) By using magnetic storms during the period over 50 years, the dependence of the type, onset time and time delay of the ionospheric storms on magnetic latitude, season and local time at middle and low latitudes in the East-Asian sector are studied. The results show that the occurrences of the types of ionospheric disturbances differ in latitude and season. The onset of the ionospheric storms depends on local time. At middle latitudes, most negative phase onsets are within the local time interval from night to early morning, and they rarely occurred in the local noon and afternoon sectors. At low latitudes, positive phases commence most frequently in the daytime sector as well as pre-midnight sector. The average time delays for both the positive and negative ionospheric storms increase with descending latitudes. The time delay has significant dependence on the local time of main phase onset (MPO). The time delay of positive response is shorter for daytime MPO and longer for night-time MPO, whereas the opposite applies for negative response. (2) Based on some previous researches, a primary empirical model for mid-latitude ionospheric disturbance is set up. By fitting to the observed data, we get a high accuracy with a mean RMSE of only 12-14% in summer and equinox. The model output has been compared with the output of STORM model, and the results show that, our model is much better than STORM in summer and a little better for some mid-latitude stations at equinox. Especially, for the type of two-step geomagnetic storm, our model can present twice descending of foF2 very well. In addition, our model can forecast positive ionospheric storms.

From the sun to the Earth: The 13 May 2005 coronal mass ejection

We report the results of a multi-instrument, multi-technique, coordinated study of the solar eruptive event of 13 May 2005. We discuss the resultant Earth-directed (halo) coronal mass ejection (CME), and the effects on the terrestrial space environment and upper Earth atmosphere. The interplanetary CME (ICME) impacted the Earth’s magnetosphere and caused the most-intense geomagnetic storm of 2005 with a Disturbed Storm Time (Dst) index reaching −263 nT at its peak. The terrestrial environment responded to the storm on a global scale. We have combined observations and measurements from coronal and interplanetary remote-sensing instruments, interplanetary and near-Earth in-situ measurements, remote-sensing observations and in-situ measurements of the terrestrial magnetosphere and ionosphere, along with coronal and heliospheric modelling. These analyses are used to trace the origin, development, propagation, terrestrial impact, and subsequent consequences of this event to obtain the most comprehensive view of a geo-effective solar eruption to date. This particular event is also part of a NASA-sponsored Living With a Star (LWS) study and an on-going US NSF-sponsored Solar, Heliospheric, and INterplanetary Environment (SHINE) community investigation.

Direct observations of the evolution of polar cap ionization patches

Patches of ionization are common in the polar ionosphere where their motion and associated density gradients give variable disturbances to High Frequency (HF) radio communications, over-the-horizon radar location errors, and disruption and errors to satellite navigation and communication. Their formation and evolution are poorly understood, particularly under disturbed space weather conditions. We report direct observations of the full evolution of patches during a geomagnetic storm, including formation, polar cap entry, transpolar evolution, polar cap exit, and sunward return flow. Our observations show that modulation of nightside reconnection in the substorm cycle of the magnetosphere helps form the gaps between patches where steady convection would give a “tongue” of ionization (TOI).

Field-aligned plasma flow in the quiet, mid-latitude ionosphere deduced from topside soundings

A method for quantifying diffusive flows of O+ ions in the topside ionosphere from satellite soundings is described. A departure from diffusive equilibrium alters the shape of the plasma scale-height profile near the F2-peak where ion-neutral frictional drag is large. The effect enables the evaluation of , the field-aligned flux of O+ ions relative to the neutral oxygen atom gas, using MSIS model values for the neutral thermospheric densities and temperature. Upward flow values are accurate to within about 10%, the largest sources of error being the MSIS prediction for the concentration of oxygen atoms and the plasma temperature gradient deduced from the sounding. Downward flux values are only determined to within 20%. From 60,000 topside soundings, taken at the minimum and rising phase of the solar cycle, a total of 1098 mean scale-height profiles are identified for which no storm sudden commencement had occurred in the previous 12 days and for which Kp was less than 2o, each mean profile being an average of about six soundings. A statistical study ofdeduced from these profiles shows the diurnal cycle of O+ flow in the quiet, topside ionosphere at mid-latitudes and its seasonal variations. The differences betweenand ion flux observations from incoherent scatter radars are considered using the meridional thermospheric winds predicted by a global, three-dimensional model. The mean interhemispheric flow from summer to winter is compared with predictions by a numerical model of the protonospheric coupling of conjugate ionospheres for up to 6 days following a geomagnetic storm. The observed mean (of order 3 × 1016 ions day−1 along a flux tube of area 1 m2 at 1000 km) is larger than predicted for day 6 and the suggested explanation is a decrease in upward flows from the winter, daytime ionosphere between the sixth and twelfth days.

Earth's ion upflow associated with polar cap patches: global and in-situ observations

We report simultaneous global monitoring of a patch of ionization and in situ observation of ion upflow at the center of the polar cap region during a geomagnetic storm. Our observations indicate strong fluxes of upwelling O+ ions originating from frictional heating produced by rapid antisunward flow of the plasma patch. The statistical results from the crossings of the central polar cap region by Defense Meteorological Satellite Program F16–F18 from 2010 to 2013 confirm that the field-aligned flow can turn upward when rapid antisunward flows appear, with consequent significant frictional heating of the ions, which overcomes the gravity effect. We suggest that such rapidly moving patches can provide an important source of upwelling ions in a region where downward flows are usually expected. These observations give new insight into the processes of ionosphere-magnetosphere coupling.

A comparison between large-scale irregularities and scintillations in the polar ionosphere

A comparison tool has been developed by mapping the global GPS total electron content (TEC) and large coverage of ionospheric scintillations together on the geomagnetic latitude/magnetic local time coordinates. Using this tool, a comparison between large-scale ionospheric irregularities and scintillations are pursued during a geomagnetic storm. Irregularities, such as storm enhanced density (SED), middle-latitude trough and polar cap patches, are clearly identified from the TEC maps. At the edges of these irregularities, clear scintillations appeared but their behaviors were different. Phase scintillations (σsub{φ}) were almost always larger than amplitude scintillations (S4) at the edges of these irregularities, associated with bursty flows or flow reversals with large density gradients. An unexpected scintillation feature appeared inside the modeled auroral oval where S4 were much larger than σsub{φ}, most likely caused by particle precipitations around the exiting polar cap patches.

Conseqüências de uma tempestade geomagnética no posicionamento relativo com receptores GPS de simples freqüência

The error associated with the ionosphere depends on Total Electron Content (TEC) of the ionosphere. The geomagnetic field exerts strong influence in the TEC variation, because it controls the movement of the electrons. After solar events the magnetic lines of force can be compressed, characterizing the geomagnetic storm. The aim of this paper is to present to geodesic community the effects of a geomagnetic storm in the relative positioning. The processing of the data was accomplished with an interval of two hours, with a 430 km baseline. The analyze of the obtained results have been carried out from the discrepancies between the true coordinates and corresponding ones obtained in the processing of the baseline. The used data in this paper include the period of 30/03/2001 up to 02/04/2001. In March 31 a strong geomagnetic storm happened. One day after, that it corresponds to main phase of the storm, the values of the discrepancies decreased significantly. For instance, in 01:00-03:00 UT period, the value of the planimetric discrepancy reached 20 m in the storm day. However, in the main phase of the storm, the planimetric discrepancy decreased to 0.1 m.

Posicionamento relativo na região equatorial em diversas condições ionosféricas

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Influência de diferentes condições da ionosfera no posicionamento por ponto com GPS: avaliação na região brasileira

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Impacto de tempestade geomagnética na ionosfera e no posicionamento com GNSS: estudo de caso para 20 de novembro de 2003 na região brasileira

The goal of this paper is to analyze the influence of the intense geomagnetic storms in the ionosphere and GNSS (GPS) positioning. It was analyzed the effects of intense geomagnetic storm of November 20th 2003 using GPS data from RBMC (Brazilian Network for Continuous Monitoring) located in different sites in the Brazilian region and ionosphere global maps. While analyzing the results, it can be observed an increase in the electron density of the ionosphere in the regions near to the geomagnetic equator in the afternoon on the day of the storm. In the period after the sunset of the storm day, there is an increase in the density of free electrons and ionospheric irregularities in regions furthest from the geomagnetic equator, when compared to geomagnetically quiet days. When the positioning point is analyzed, it is observed high discrepancies values in planimetry and altimetry at the same position for periods of changes that occurred in the ionosphere, especially for the GPS stations located furthest from the geomagnetic equator in the period after the sunset Sun.

Comment on the existence of a long range correlation in the geomagnetic disturbance storm time (Dst) index

Very recently (Banerjee et al. in Astrophys. Space, doi:1007/s10509-011-0836-1, 2011) the statistics of geomagnetic Disturbance storm (Dst) index have been addressed, and the conclusion from this analysis suggests that the underlying dynamical process can be modeled as a fractional Brownian motion with persistent long-range correlations. In this comment we expose several misconceptions and flaws in the statistical analysis of that work. On the basis of these arguments, the former conclusion should be revisited.

Ionospheric and geomagnetic responses to changes in IMF B_Z: a superposed epoch study

Superposed epoch studies have been carried out in order to determine the ionospheric response at mid-latitudes to southward turnings of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). This is compared with the geomagnetic response, as seen in the indices K p, AE and Dst. The solar wind, IMF and geomagnetic data used were hourly averages from the years 1967–1989 and thus cover a full 22-year cycle in the solar magnetic field. These data were divided into subsets, determined by the magnitudes of the southward turnings and the concomitant increase in solar wind pressure. The superposed epoch studies were carried out using the time of the southward turning as time zero. The response of the mid-latitude ionosphere is studied by looking at the F-layer critical frequencies, f o F2, from hourly soundings by the Slough ionosonde and their deviation from the monthly median values, δf o F2. For the southward turnings with a change in B z of δB z > 11.5 nT accompanied by a solar wind dynamic pressure P exceeding 5 nPa, the F region critical frequency, f o F2, shows a marked decrease, reaching a minimum value about 20 h after the southward turning. This recovers to pre-event values over the subsequent 24 h, on average. The Dst index shows the classic storm-time decrease to about −60 nT. Four days later, the index has still to fully recover and is at about −25 nT. Both the K p and AE indices show rises before the southward turnings, when the IMF is strongly northward but the solar wind dynamic pressure is enhanced. The average AE index does register a clear isolated pulse (averaging 650 nT for 2 h, compared with a background peak level of near 450 nT at these times) showing enhanced energy deposition at high latitudes in substorms but, like K p, remains somewhat enhanced for several days, even after the average IMF has returned to zero after 1 day. This AE background decays away over several days as the Dst index recovers, indicating that there is some contamination of the currents observed at the AE stations by the continuing enhanced equatorial ring current. For data averaged over all seasons, the critical frequencies are depressed at Slough by 1.3 MHz, which is close to the lower decile of the overall distribution of δf o Fl values. Taking 30-day periods around summer and winter solstice, the largest depression is 1.6 and 1.2 MHz, respectively. This seasonal dependence is confirmed by a similar study for a Southern Hemisphere station, Argentine Island, giving peak depressions of 1.8 MHz and 0.5 MHz for summer and winter. For the subset of turnings where δB z > 11.5 nT and P ≤ 5 nPa, the response of the geomagnetic indices is similar but smaller, while the change in δf o F2 has all but disappeared. This confirms that the energy deposited at high latitudes, which leads to the geomagnetic and ionospheric disturbances following a southward turning of the IMF, increases with the energy density (dynamic pressure) of the solar wind flow. The magnitude of all responses are shown to depend on δB z . At Slough, the peak depression always occurs when Slough rotates into the noon sector. The largest ionospheric response is for southward turnings seen between 15–21 UT.