Consensus, contradiction, and conciliation of interests: the geo-economics of the Energy Union. EPC Policy Brief, 8 July 2015

European Union energy policy calls for nothing less than a profound transformation of the EU's energy system: by 2050 decarbonised electricity generation with 80-95% fewer greenhouse gas emissions, increased use of renewables, more energy efficiency, a functioning energy market and increased security of supply are to be achieved. Different EU policies (e.g., EU climate and energy package for 2020) are intended to create the political and regulatory framework for this transformation. The sectorial dynamics resulting from these EU policies already affect the systems of electricity generation, transportation and storage in Europe, and the more effective the implementation of new measures the more the structure of Europe's power system will change in the years to come. Recent initiatives such as the 2030 climate/energy package and the Energy Union are supposed to keep this dynamic up. Setting new EU targets, however, is not necessarily the same as meeting them. The impact of EU energy policy is likely to have considerable geo-economic implications for individual member states: with increasing market integration come new competitors; coal and gas power plants face new renewable challengers domestically and abroad; and diversification towards new suppliers will result in new trade routes, entry points and infrastructure. Where these implications are at odds with powerful national interests, any member state may point to Article 194, 2 of the Lisbon Treaty and argue that the EU's energy policy agenda interferes with its given right to determine the conditions for exploiting its energy resources, the choice between different energy sources and the general structure of its energy supply. The implementation of new policy initiatives therefore involves intense negotiations to conciliate contradicting interests, something that traditionally has been far from easy to achieve. In areas where this process runs into difficulties, the transfer of sovereignty to the European level is usually to be found amongst the suggested solutions. Pooling sovereignty on a new level, however, does not automatically result in a consensus, i.e., conciliate contradicting interests. Rather than focussing on the right level of decision making, European policy makers need to face the (inconvenient truth of) geo-economical frictions within the Union that make it difficult to come to an arrangement. The reminder of this text explains these latter, more structural and sector-related challenges for European energy policy in more detail, and develops some concrete steps towards a political and regulatory framework necessary to overcome them.

El rol de la cooperación energética en la política exterior China: caso Venezuela (2001-2014)

Las reformas económicas iniciadas por Deng Xiaoping en China y la continuación de estas por sus líderes, han hecho del país asiático una de las mayores fuerzas económicas en el mundo. Sin embargo, su crecimiento económico se ve obstaculizado cuando sus fuentes de recursos energéticos escasean. A partir de esto, China ha iniciado una estrategia en política exterior que combina herramientas de baja política, como lo son la economía y la atracción cultural, para obtener un mayor acceso a hidrocarburos. Uno de los escenarios en donde dicha estrategia se ha hecho más visible es en la relación establecida con Venezuela. En este trabajo se discuten los principales intereses que China tiene en la región, la relación de cooperación energética que entrañan los dos países y las estrategias de corte geoeconómico que la potencia emergente ha implementado para garantizar un aumento en su potencial económico.

First steps towards into the unknown. The possibilities prospects of unconventional gas extraction in Ukraine. OSW Commentary No. 106, 2013-04-24

Ukraine’s deposits of unconventional gas (shale gas, tight gas trapped in non-porous sandstone formations, and coal bed methane) may form a significant part of Europe’s gas reserves. Initial exploration and test drilling will be carried out in two major deposits: Yuzivska (Kharkiv and Donetsk Oblasts) and Oleska (Lviv and Ivano-Frankivsk Oblasts), to confirm the volume of the reserves. Shell and Chevron, respectively, won the tenders for the development of these fields in mid 2012. Gas extraction on an industrial scale is expected to commence in late 2018/ early 2019 at the earliest. According to estimates presented in the draft Energy Strategy of Ukraine 2030, annual gas production levels may range between 30 billion m3 and 47 billion m3 towards the end of the next decade. According to optimistic forecasts from IHS CERA, total gas production (from both conventional and unconventional reserves) could reach as much as 73 billion m3. However, this will require multi-billion dollar investments, a significant improvement in the investment climate, and political stability. It is clear at the present initial stage of the unconventional gas extraction project that the private interests of the Ukrainian government elite have played a positive role in initiating unconventional gas extraction projects. Ukraine has had to wait nearly four decades for this opportunity to regain its status of a major gas producer. Gas from unconventional sources may lead not only to Ukraine becoming self-sufficient in terms of energy supplies, but may also result in it beginning to export gas. Furthermore, shale gas deposits in Poland and Ukraine, including on the Black Sea shelf (both traditional natural gas and gas hydrates) form a specific ‘European methane belt’, which could bring about a cardinal change in the geopolitics and geo-economics of Eastern and Central Europe over the next thirty years.

Internacionalización del sector financiero Colombiano desde la óptica Geoeconómica. Caso Grupo Bancolombia

El creciente peso que han alcanzado los mercados y diferentes actores económicos dentro de la escena política mundial, sugieren que estamos frente a un nuevo paradigma en lo que concierne al funcionamiento del Estado nación. El concepto de Geoeconomía surge como respuesta a los cambios que se han comenzado a configurar a partir de la segunda mitad del siglo XX, a su vez que ilustra como a través de la concepción de estrategias de control económico se puede alcanzar dominio y poder en términos internacionales, bien sea a través de los Estados de manera directa o bajo su influencia o beneplácito a través de grandes grupos económicos. En efecto, el presente trabajo de investigación aborda desde la óptica Geoeconómica la progresiva colonización que ha emprendido el sistema financiero colombiano, y más propiamente el Grupo Bancolombia, sobre una serie de activos financieros estratégicos en Centroamérica. Del mismo modo, explica cómo este fenómeno ha traído consigo cambios sustanciales en la dinámica de las relaciones internacionales de Colombia con sus vecinos, a su vez que ha propiciado las condiciones de legitimidad necesarias para una serie de actores privados que podrían llegar incluso a ser capaces de moldear en cierta medida la política interior y exterior del país, tal y como ha sucedido en algunos episodios recientes.

Biofuel Co-Product Uses for Pavement Geo-Materials Stabilization, TR-582, 2010

The production and use of biofuels has increased in the present context of sustainable development. Biofuel production from plant biomass produces not only biofuel or ethanol but also co-products containing lignin, modified lignin, and lignin derivatives. This research investigated the utilization of lignin-containing biofuel co-products (BCPs) in pavement soil stabilization as a new application area. Laboratory tests were conducted to evaluate the performance and the moisture susceptibility of two types of BCP-treated soil samples compared to the performance of untreated and traditional stabilizer-treated (fly ash) soil samples. The two types of BCPs investigated were (1) a liquid type with higher lignin content (co-product A) and (b) a powder type with lower lignin content (co-product B). Various additive combinations (co-product A and fly ash, co-products A and B, etc.) were also evaluated as alternatives to stand-alone co-products. Test results indicate that BCPs are effective in stabilizing the Iowa Class 10 soil classified as CL or A-6(8) and have excellent resistance to moisture degradation. Strengths and moisture resistance in comparison to traditional additives (fly ash) could be obtained through the use of combined additives (co-product A + fly ash; co-product A + co-product B). Utilizing BCPs as a soil stabilizer appears to be one of the many viable answers to the profitability of the bio-based products and the bioenergy business. Future research is needed to evaluate the freeze-thaw durability and for resilient modulus characterization of BCP-modified layers for a variety of pavement subgrade and base soil types. In addition, the long-term performance of these BCPs should be evaluated under actual field conditions and traffic loadings. Innovative uses of BCP in pavement-related applications could not only provide additional revenue streams to improve the economics of biorefineries, but could also serve to establish green road infrastructures.

Essays in Empirical Political Economics

This thesis takes two perspectives on political institutions. From the one side, it examines the long-run effects of institutions on cultural values. From the other side, I study strategic communication, and its determinants, of politicians, a pivotal actor inside those institutions. The first chapter provides evidence for the legacy of feudalism - a set of labor coercion and migration restrictions -, on interpersonal distrust. I combining administrative data on the feudal system in the Prussian Empire (1816 – 1849) with the geo-localized survey data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (1980 – 2020). I show that areas with strong historical exposure to feudalism have lower levels of inter-personal trust today, by means of OLS- and mover specifications. The second chapter builds a novel dataset that includes the Twitter handles of 18,000+ politicians and 61+ million tweets from 2008 – 2021 from all levels of government. I find substantial partisan differences in Twitter adoption, Twitter activity and audience engagement. I use established tools to measure ideological polarization to provide evidence that online-polarization follows similar trends to offline-polarization, at comparable magnitude and reaches unprecedented heights in 2018 and 2021. I develop a new tool to demonstrate a marked increase in affective polarization. The third chapter tests whether politicians disseminate distortive messages when exposed to bad news. Specifically, I study the diffusion of misleading communication from pro-gun politicians in the aftermath of mass shootings. I exploit the random timing of mass shootings and analyze half a million tweets between 2010 – 2020 in an event-study design. I develop and apply state-of-the-art text analysis tools to show that pro- gun politicians seek to decrease the salience of the mass shooting through distraction and try to alter voters’ belief formation through misrepresenting the causes of the mass shootings.

Near-infrared third-order nonlinearity of PbO-GeO(2) films containing Cu and Cu(2)O nanoparticles

We report measurements of the nonlinear (NL) refractive index n(2) of lead-germanium films (LGFs) containing Cu and Cu(2)O nanoparticles (NPs). The thermally managed eclipse Z-scan technique with 150 fs pulses from a laser operating at 800 nm was used. The NL refractive index measured, n(2)=6.3x10(-12) cm(2)/W has electronic origin and the NL absorption coefficient alpha(2) is smaller than 660 cm/GW. The figure of merit n(2)/lambda alpha(2) is enhanced by more than two orders of magnitude in comparison with the result for the LGFs without the copper based NPs. (C) 2008 American Institute of Physics.

Frequency upconversion luminescence from Yb(+3)-Tm(+3) codoped PbO-GeO(2) glasses containing silver nanoparticles

Infrared-to-visible and infrared-to-infrared frequency upconversion processes in Yb(3+)-Tm(3+) doped PbO-GeO(2) glasses containing silver nanoparticles (NPs) were investigated. The experiments were performed by exciting the samples with a diode laser operating at 980 nm (in resonance with the Yb(3+) transition (2)F(7/2)->(2)F(5/2)) and observing the photoluminescence (PL) in the visible and infrared regions due to energy transfer from Yb(3+) to Tm(3+) ions followed by excited state absorption in the Tm3+ ions. The intensified local field in the vicinity of the metallic NPs contributes for enhancement in the PL intensity at 480 nm (Tm(3+) :(1)G(4)->(3)H(6)) and at 800 nm (Tm(3+) : (3)H(4) -> (3)H(6)). (C) 2009 American Institute of Physics. [doi:10.1063/1.3211300]

Photoluminescence enhancement by gold nanoparticles in Eu(3+) doped GeO(2)-Bi(2)O(3) glasses

We report large photoluminescence (PL) enhancement in Eu(3+)-doped GeO(2)-Bi(2)O(3) glasses containing gold nanoparticles (NPs). Growth of approximate to 1000% in the PL intensity corresponding to the Eu(3+) transition (5)D(0)->(7)F(2), at 614 nm, was observed in comparison with a reference sample that does not contain gold NPs. Other PL bands from 580 to 700 nm are also enhanced. The enhancement of the PL intensity is attributed to the increased local field in the Eu(3+) locations due to the presence of the NPs and the energy transfer from the excited NPs to the Eu(3+) ions.

Influence of the heat treatment on the nucleation of silver nanoparticles in Tm(3+) doped PbO-GeO(2) glasses

Nucleation of silver nanoparticles (NPs) in Tm(3+) doped PbO-GeO(2) (PGO) glass is reported. The influence of the heat treatment on the nucleation of silver NPs is studied by means of transmission electron microscopy and optical spectroscopy. Two heat treatment procedures were applied in order to compare their performance. Observation of infrared-to-visible frequency upconversion (UC) luminescence of Tm(3+) ions is reported and correlated with the heat-treatment procedure. Enhancement of the UC emission for samples heat treated during various time intervals is attributed to the increased local field in the vicinity of the NPs. Quenching of the UC signal was also observed and correlated with the growth of NPs amount and size.

Production and characterization of RF-sputtered PbO-GeO(2) amorphous thin films containing silver and gold nanoparticles

In the present work we report the characterization of PbO-GeO(2) films containing silver nanoparticles (NPs). Radio Frequency (RF) co-sputtering was used for deposition of amorphous films on glass substrates. Targets of 60PbO-40GeO(2) (in wt%) and bulk silver with purity of 99.99% were RF-sputtered using 3.5 m Torr of argon. The concentration of silver and gold NPs in the films was controlled varying the RF-power applied to the targets (40-50W for the PbO-GeO(2) target; 6-8 W for the metallic target). The films obtained were annealed in air at different temperatures and various periods of time. Absorption measurements have shown strong NPs surface plasmon bands. Different widths and peak wavelengths were observed, indicating that size, shape and distribution of the silver NPs are dependent on the deposition process parameters and on the annealing of the samples. X-Ray Fluorescence and Transmission Electron Microscopy were also used to characterize the samples. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Influence of gold nanoparticles on optically stimulated effects in TeO(2)-ZnO and GeO(2)-PbO amorphous thin films

We have found photoinduced second harmonic generation at wavelength 1064 nm during bicolor Nd:YAG laser coherent treatment of TeO(2)-ZnO and GeO(2)-PbO amorphous films. The maximally achieved second order susceptibility was equal to about 1.02 pm/V. Correlation of the induced second order susceptibility with local sample heating and induced birefringence may indicate an occurrence of local phase transitions from amorphous glass-like phase to non-centrosymmetry metastable phases. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Electron beam induced second-harmonic generation in Er(3+) doped PbO-GeO(2) glasses containing silver nanoparticles

Electron beam induced second harmonic generation (SHG) is studied in Er(3+) doped PbO-GeO(2) glasses containing silver nanoparticles with concentrations that are controlled by the heat-treatment of the samples. The SHG is observed at T = 4.2 K using a p-polarized laser beam at 1064 nm. Enhancement of the SHG is observed in the samples that are submitted to electron beam incidence. The highest value of the nonlinear susceptibility, 2.08 pm/V, is achieved for the sample heat-treated during 72 h and submitted to an electron beam current of 15 nA. The samples that were not exposed to the electron beam present a susceptibility of a parts per thousand 0.5 pm/V.

PbO-GeO(2) rib waveguides for photonic applications

This work presents for the first time to our knowledge the fabrication and characterization of rib waveguides produced with PbO-GeO(2) (PGO) thin films. The target was manufactured using pure oxides ( 60 PbO-40 GeO(2), in wt%) and amorphous thin films were produced with the RF sputtering technique. PGO thin films present small absorption in the visible and in the near infrared and refractive index of similar to 2.0. The definition of the rib waveguide structure was made using conventional optical lithography followed by plasma etching, performed in a Reactive Ion Etching (RIE) reactor. Light propagation mode in the waveguide structure was analyzed using integrated optic simulation software. Optical loss measurements were performed to determine the propagation loss at 633 nm, for ribs with height of 70 nm and width of 3-5 mu m; experimental values around 2 dB/cm were found for the propagation loss and confirmed the theoretical calculations. The results obtained demonstrate that PGO thin films are potential candidates for application in integrated optics. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Do economists ‘compose’ economics? A comparison of the creative processes of artists and economists

This is a draft for a chapter of the book version of my Ph.D thesis. The chapter addresses the following question: Are the creative processes of musical composers and academic economists essentially the same, or are there significant differences? The paper finds that there are deep similarities between the creative processes of theoretical economists and the creative processes of artists. The chapter builds a process oriented lifecycle account of creative activity, drawing on testimonial material from the arts and the sciences, and relates the model to the creative work of economists developing economic theory.