Multi-dimensional Goodness-of-Fit Tests for Spectrum Sensing Based on Stochastic Distances

In this paper, we study two multi-dimensional Goodness-of-Fit tests for spectrum sensing in cognitive radios. The multi-dimensional scenario refers to multiple CR nodes, each with multiple antennas, that record multiple observations from multiple primary users for spectrum sensing. These tests, viz., the Interpoint Distance (ID) based test and the h, f distance based tests are constructed based on the properties of stochastic distances. The ID test is studied in detail for a single CR node case, and a possible extension to handle multiple nodes is discussed. On the other hand, the h, f test is applicable in a multi-node setup. A robustness feature of the KL distance based test is discussed, which has connections with Middleton's class A model. Through Monte-Carlo simulations, the proposed tests are shown to outperform the existing techniques such as the eigenvalue ratio based test, John's test, and the sphericity test, in several scenarios.

The form and function of aggressive subtypes: Relations with the goodness of fit between adolescent temperament and parent personality

The current research investigated whether the interaction between adolescent temperament and parent personality, consistent with the goodness of fit perspective, differentially predicted overt (e.g., kicking, punching, insulting) and relational (e.g., gossiping, rumour spreading, ostracising) forms of reactive (e.g., provoked, a response to goal blocking, unplanned and emotional) and proactive (e.g., unprovoked, goal-directed, deliberate and relatively unemotional) aggression. Mothers, fathers and their adolescent child (N = 448, age 10-17) from southern Ontario, Canada filled out questionnaires on adolescent temperament (i.e., frustration, fear, and effortful control) and aggression. Parents reported on their own personality traits (i.e., agreeableness, conscientiousness, and emotional stability). The form and function of aggression not encompassed by the subtype under investigation were controlled in each regression analysis. Consistent with the hypothesis, results indicated that a poor fit between adolescent temperament vulnerabilities and lower parent personality traits, including agreeableness, conscientiousness and emotional stability, was predictive of greater levels of differentiated aggression. For instance, lower father conscientiousness strengthened the relation between higher frustration and reactive overt aggression. Unexpectedly in some cases, temperament risk factors were more strongly associated with aggression subtypes when personality scores were at higher levels, particularly agreeableness and conscientiousness, traits normally considered to be at the optimal end of the dimension. For example, higher father agreeableness strengthened the relation between higher frustration and reactive relational aggression. At the main effects level, low fearfulness was significantly associated with only the overt subtypes of aggression, and unexpectedly, higher frustration and lower effortful control were related to both proactive and reactive subtypes of aggression. A temperamentally vulnerable adolescent was also at greater risk of displaying aggressive behaviour when the father lacked emotional stability, but not the mother. These results are broadly consistent with the prediction that temperament risk factors are more strongly associated with aggression subtypes when an adolescent predisposition does not fit well with parent personality traits. Mechanisms pertaining to stress in the family environment and the fostering of self-regulation abilities are discussed with respect to why a poor fit between temperament and parent personality is predictive of adolescent differentiated aggression.

Exact Skewness-Kurtosis Tests for Multivariate Normality and Goodness-of-fit in Multivariate Regressions with Application to Asset Pricing Models

We study the problem of testing the error distribution in a multivariate linear regression (MLR) model. The tests are functions of appropriately standardized multivariate least squares residuals whose distribution is invariant to the unknown cross-equation error covariance matrix. Empirical multivariate skewness and kurtosis criteria are then compared to simulation-based estimate of their expected value under the hypothesized distribution. Special cases considered include testing multivariate normal, Student t; normal mixtures and stable error models. In the Gaussian case, finite-sample versions of the standard multivariate skewness and kurtosis tests are derived. To do this, we exploit simple, double and multi-stage Monte Carlo test methods. For non-Gaussian distribution families involving nuisance parameters, confidence sets are derived for the the nuisance parameters and the error distribution. The procedures considered are evaluated in a small simulation experi-ment. Finally, the tests are applied to an asset pricing model with observable risk-free rates, using monthly returns on New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) portfolios over five-year subperiods from 1926-1995.

Parametric VaR with goodness-of-fit tests based on EDF statistics for extreme returns

Parametric VaR (Value-at-Risk) is widely used due to its simplicity and easy calculation. However, the normality assumption, often used in the estimation of the parametric VaR, does not provide satisfactory estimates for risk exposure. Therefore, this study suggests a method for computing the parametric VaR based on goodness-of-fit tests using the empirical distribution function (EDF) for extreme returns, and compares the feasibility of this method for the banking sector in an emerging market and in a developed one. The paper also discusses possible theoretical contributions in related fields like enterprise risk management (ERM). © 2013 Elsevier Ltd.

On Graphically Checking Goodness-of-fit of Binary Logistic Regression Models

OBJECTIVES: This paper is concerned with checking goodness-of-fit of binary logistic regression models. For the practitioners of data analysis, the broad classes of procedures for checking goodness-of-fit available in the literature are described. The challenges of model checking in the context of binary logistic regression are reviewed. As a viable solution, a simple graphical procedure for checking goodness-of-fit is proposed. METHODS: The graphical procedure proposed relies on pieces of information available from any logistic analysis; the focus is on combining and presenting these in an informative way. RESULTS: The information gained using this approach is presented with three examples. In the discussion, the proposed method is put into context and compared with other graphical procedures for checking goodness-of-fit of binary logistic models available in the literature. CONCLUSION: A simple graphical method can significantly improve the understanding of any logistic regression analysis and help to prevent faulty conclusions.

Multinomial goodness-of-fit: large sample tests with survey design correction and exact tests for small samples

I introduce the new mgof command to compute distributional tests for discrete (categorical, multinomial) variables. The command supports largesample tests for complex survey designs and exact tests for small samples as well as classic large-sample x2-approximation tests based on Pearson’s X2, the likelihood ratio, or any other statistic from the power-divergence family (Cressie and Read, 1984, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B (Methodological) 46: 440–464). The complex survey correction is based on the approach by Rao and Scott (1981, Journal of the American Statistical Association 76: 221–230) and parallels the survey design correction used for independence tests in svy: tabulate. mgof computes the exact tests by using Monte Carlo methods or exhaustive enumeration. mgof also provides an exact one-sample Kolmogorov–Smirnov test for discrete data.

Evaluation of the Hosmer -Lemeshow global goodness -of-fit statistic for mixed variable logistic regression models

The performance of the Hosmer-Lemeshow global goodness-of-fit statistic for logistic regression models was explored in a wide variety of conditions not previously fully investigated. Computer simulations, each consisting of 500 regression models, were run to assess the statistic in 23 different situations. The items which varied among the situations included the number of observations used in each regression, the number of covariates, the degree of dependence among the covariates, the combinations of continuous and discrete variables, and the generation of the values of the dependent variable for model fit or lack of fit.^ The study found that the $\rm\ C$g* statistic was adequate in tests of significance for most situations. However, when testing data which deviate from a logistic model, the statistic has low power to detect such deviation. Although grouping of the estimated probabilities into quantiles from 8 to 30 was studied, the deciles of risk approach was generally sufficient. Subdividing the estimated probabilities into more than 10 quantiles when there are many covariates in the model is not necessary, despite theoretical reasons which suggest otherwise. Because it does not follow a X$\sp2$ distribution, the statistic is not recommended for use in models containing only categorical variables with a limited number of covariate patterns.^ The statistic performed adequately when there were at least 10 observations per quantile. Large numbers of observations per quantile did not lead to incorrect conclusions that the model did not fit the data when it actually did. However, the statistic failed to detect lack of fit when it existed and should be supplemented with further tests for the influence of individual observations. Careful examination of the parameter estimates is also essential since the statistic did not perform as desired when there was moderate to severe collinearity among covariates.^ Two methods studied for handling tied values of the estimated probabilities made only a slight difference in conclusions about model fit. Neither method split observations with identical probabilities into different quantiles. Approaches which create equal size groups by separating ties should be avoided. ^

MGOF: Stata module to perform goodness-of-fit tests for multinomial data

mgof computes goodness-of-fit tests for the distribution of a discrete (categorical, multinomial) variable. The default is to perform classical large sample chi-squared approximation tests based on Pearson's X2 statistic and the log likelihood ratio (G2) statistic or a statistic from the Cressie-Read family. Alternatively, mgof computes exact tests using Monte Carlo methods or exhaustive enumeration. A Kolmogorov-Smirnov test for discrete data is also provided. The moremata package, also available from SSC, is required.

Multinomial goodness-of-fit: large sample tests with survey design correction and exact tests for small samples

A new Stata command called -mgof- is introduced. The command is used to compute distributional tests for discrete (categorical, multinomial) variables. Apart from classic large sample $\chi^2$-approximation tests based on Pearson's $X^2$, the likelihood ratio, or any other statistic from the power-divergence family (Cressie and Read 1984), large sample tests for complex survey designs and exact tests for small samples are supported. The complex survey correction is based on the approach by Rao and Scott (1981) and parallels the survey design correction used for independence tests in -svy:tabulate-. The exact tests are computed using Monte Carlo methods or exhaustive enumeration. An exact Kolmogorov-Smirnov test for discrete data is also provided.