Getting the carry trade's jackpot

This Working Project studies five portfolios of currency carry trades formed with the G10 currencies. Performance varies among strategies and the most basic one presents the worst results. I also study the equity and Pure FX risk factors which can explain the portfolios’ returns. Equity factors do not explain these returns while the Pure FX do for some of the strategies. Downside risk measures indicate the importance of using regime indicators to avoid losses. I conclude that although using VAR and threshold regression models with a variety of regime indicators do not allow the perception of different regimes, with a defined exogenous threshold on real exchange rates, an indicator of liquidity and the volatilities of the spot exchange rates it is possible to increase the average returns and reduce drawdowns of the carry trades

Exploring internal communication's impact on psychological contract currencies

Internal communication is a central process by which employees exchange information, build relationships and share organisational values. Fundamental to this process is the psychological contract. However, there is limited understanding of how internal communication influences psychological contract. The study contributes to theory by demonstrating that the dimensions of internal communication independently influence internal stakeholders' psychological contract beliefs. For managers, the findings can be used as a framework to improve internal communication processes and strategies.

Prevalence of, and antigenic variation in, serotype G10 rotaviruses and detection of serotype G3 strains in diarrheic calves: Implications for the origin of G10P11 or P11 type reassortant asymptomatic strains in newborn children in India

Previous studies have shown predominant association of G10P11 type bovine rotavirus-derived reassortant strains with asymptomatic infections in newborn children in India. To understand the epidemiological and genetic basis for the origin of these strains in humans, the relative frequencies of different serotypes among bovine rotaviruses (BRVs) isolated from southern, western and central regions of the country were determined by subgroup and serotype analysis as well as nucleotide (nt) sequence analysis of the genes encoding the outer capsid proteins VP4 and VP7. Since the human G10P11 asymptomatic neonatal strain I321 possessed NSP1 from a human rotavirus, to determine its genetic origin in the bovine strains, comparative analysis of partial gene sequences from representative G10P11 strains was also carried out. The following observations were of great epidemiological significance, (i) G10P11 strains predominated in all the three regions with frequencies ranging between 55.6% and 85.2%. In contrast to the high prevalence of G6 strains in other countries, only one G6 strain was detected in this study and G8 strains represented 5.8% of the isolates, (ii) among the G10 strains, in serotyping ELISA, four patterns of reactivity were observed that appeared to correlate with the differences in electropherotypic patterns and amino acid (aa) sequence of the VP7, (iii) surprisingly, strains belonging to serotype G3 were detected more frequently (10.7%) than those of serotypes G6 and G8 combined, while strains representing the new serotype (G15) were observed in a single farm in Bangalore, and (iv) about 3.9% of the isolates were nontypeable as they exhibited high cross-reactivity to the serotyping MAbs used in the study. Comparative analysis of the VP7 gene sequence from the prototype G3 MAb-reactive bovine strain J63 revealed greatest sequence relatedness (87.6% nt and 96.0% aa) with that of serotype G3 rhesus-monkey strain RRV. It also exhibited high sequence homology with the VP7 from several animal and animal rotavirus-related human G3 strains (Simian SA11; equine ERV316 and FI-14. canine CU-1 and K9; porcine 4F; Feline Cat2 and human HCR3, YO and AU1). Partial nucleotide sequence analysis of the NSP1 gene of J63 showed greatest nt sequence homology (95.9%) to the NSP1 gene allele of the Indian G8 strain, isolated from a diarrheic child, which is likely to have been transmitted directly from cattle and 92.6% homology to that of the bovine G8 strain A5-10 suggesting the likely origin of J63 by gene reassortment between a bovine G8 strain and a G3 animal strain. Prevalence of G10P11 strains in cattle and G10P11 or P11 type reassortant strains in asymptomatic neonates as well as detection of G8P[1] strains in diarrheic children support our hypothesis for bidirectional transmission of rotaviruses between humans and cattle and origin of novel strains catalyzed by the age-old traditions and socio-economic conditions in India.

An information approach to international currencies

Models of currency competition focus on the 5% of trading attributable to balance-of-payments flows. We introduce an information approach that focuses on the other 95%. Important departures from traditional models arise when transactions convey information. First, prices reveal different information depending on whether trades are direct or though vehicle currencies. Second, missing markets arise due to insufficiently symmetric information, rather than insufficient transactions scale. Third, the indeterminacy of equilibrium that arises in traditional models is resolved: currency trade patterns no longer concentrate arbitrarily on market size. Empirically, we provide a first analysis of transactions across a full market triangle: the euro, yen and US dollar. The estimated transaction effects on prices support the information approach.

The distortion of currencies misalignments on trade Instruments: or why currencies wars are not over

The negotiations of mega agreements between the US and the Pacific countries (TPP) and between the US and the EU (TTIP) are raising the attention of experts on international trade law and economics. TPP and TTIP are proclaimed to be the designers of the rules for the XXI Century. Old trade instruments such as tariffs are said to be no more important for TTIP because tariffs are negligible among those partners but significant to for TPP. Another relevant agreement in negotiation is between the EU and Mercosul, where tariffs are the most important issue in discussion. The main purpose of this paper is to shows that tariff are important for all these agreements, not because of its nominal value, but because the impacts of exchange rate misalignments on tariffs are so significant that all concessions can be distorted by overvalued and by devaluated currencies. The article is divided into several sections: the first gives an introduction to the issue; the second explains the methodologies used to determine exchange rate misalignments and also presents some results for Brazil, US and China; the third summarizes the methodology applied to calculate the impacts of exchange rate misalignments on the level of tariff protection through an exercise of “misalignment tariffication” and examines the effects of exchange rate variations on tariffs and their consequences for the multilateral trading system; the fourth creates a methodology to estimate exchange rates against a basket of currencies (a virtual currency of the World) and a proposal to deal with persistent and significant misalignments related to trade rules. The fifth presents some estimates for the main PTAs. The conclusions are present in the last section

A measurement of price levels and the purchasing power of currencies in Latin America, 1960-62

Includes bibliography

Gregoire G10, Nacida para el olivar

El mercado mundial del aceite está sufriendo una mutación, un auténtico movimiento “de masas”. Grégoire no es ajeno a ese cambio en el mercado “global” del aceite de oliva. Se admite que la demanda mundial progresa, pero se trata de una demanda muy sensible a los precios de venta. Por eso, desde el lado de los productores se debe lograr un precio económico. La recolección es la labor más costosa del ciclo del cultivo del olivar. Es en la recogida donde se debe hacer el máximo esfuerzo para el control de costes. La G10 ha nacido de la pasión de Grégoire por la productividad y la especialización.