Does the Future Price Help Forecast the Spot Price?

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Futures basis, inventory and commodity price volatility: an empirical analysis

We employ a large dataset of physical inventory data on 21 different commodities for the period 1993–2011 to empirically analyze the behavior of commodity prices and their volatility as predicted by the theory of storage. We examine two main issues. First, we analyze the relationship between inventory and the shape of the forward curve. Low (high) inventory is associated with forward curves in backwardation (contango), as the theory of storage predicts. Second, we show that price volatility is a decreasing function of inventory for the majority of commodities in our sample. This effect is more pronounced in backwardated markets. Our findings are robust with respect to alternative inventory measures and over the recent commodity price boom.

Computational adjustment technique for digital mammographic images based on the digitizer characteristic curve

We evaluated the performance of a novel procedure for segmenting mammograms and detecting clustered microcalcifications in two types of image sets obtained from digitization of mammograms using either a laser scanner, or a conventional ""optical"" scanner. Specific regions forming the digital mammograms were identified and selected, in which clustered microcalcifications appeared or not. A remarkable increase in image intensity was noticed in the images from the optical scanner compared with the original mammograms. A procedure based on a polynomial correction was developed to compensate the changes in the characteristic curves from the scanners, relative to the curves from the films. The processing scheme was applied to both sets, before and after the polynomial correction. The results indicated clearly the influence of the mammogram digitization on the performance of processing schemes intended to detect microcalcifications. The image processing techniques applied to mammograms digitized by both scanners, without the polynomial intensity correction, resulted in a better sensibility in detecting microcalcifications in the images from the laser scanner. However, when the polynomial correction was applied to the images from the optical scanner, no differences in performance were observed for both types of images. (C) 2008 SPIE and IS&T [DOI: 10.1117/1.3013544]

Rotation curve bifurcations as indicators of close recent galaxy encounters

Context. Rotation curves of interacting galaxies often show that velocities are either rising or falling in the direction of the companion galaxy. Aims. We seek to reproduce and analyse these features in the rotation curves of simulated equal-mass galaxies suffering a one-to-one encounter as possible indicators of close encounters. Methods. Using simulations of major mergers in 3D, we study the time evolution of these asymmetries in a pair of galaxies during the first passage. Results. Our main results are: (a) the rotation curve asymmetries appear right at pericentre of the first passage, (b) the significant disturbed rotation velocities occur within a small time interval, of similar to 0.5 Gyr h(-1), and, therefore, the presence of bifurcation in the velocity curve could be used as an indicator of the pericentre occurrence. These results are in qualitative agreement with previous findings for minor mergers and flybys.

Greenhouse gas emissions from alternative futures of deforestation and agricultural management in the southern Amazon

The Brazilian Amazon is one of the most rapidly developing agricultural areas in the world and represents a potentially large future source of greenhouse gases from land clearing and subsequent agricultural management. In an integrated approach, we estimate the greenhouse gas dynamics of natural ecosystems and agricultural ecosystems after clearing in the context of a future climate. We examine scenarios of deforestation and postclearing land use to estimate the future (2006-2050) impacts on carbon dioxide (CO(2)), methane (CH(4)), and nitrous oxide (N(2)O) emissions from the agricultural frontier state of Mato Grosso, using a process-based biogeochemistry model, the Terrestrial Ecosystems Model (TEM). We estimate a net emission of greenhouse gases from Mato Grosso, ranging from 2.8 to 15.9 Pg CO(2)-equivalents (CO(2)-e) from 2006 to 2050. Deforestation is the largest source of greenhouse gas emissions over this period, but land uses following clearing account for a substantial portion (24-49%) of the net greenhouse gas budget. Due to land-cover and land-use change, there is a small foregone carbon sequestration of 0.2-0.4 Pg CO(2)-e by natural forests and cerrado between 2006 and 2050. Both deforestation and future land-use management play important roles in the net greenhouse gas emissions of this frontier, suggesting that both should be considered in emissions policies. We find that avoided deforestation remains the best strategy for minimizing future greenhouse gas emissions from Mato Grosso.

Analysis of the E-J Curve of HTS Tapes Under DC and AC Magnetic Fields at 77 K

The evaluation of the electrical characteristics of technical HTS tapes are of the key importance in determining the design and operational features of superconducting power apparatuses as well as to understand the external factors which affect the superconducting performance. In this work we report the systematic measurements of the electric field versus current density, E-J relation of short samples for three commercial HTS tapes (BSCCO-2223 tapes, with and without steel reinforcement, and YBCO-coated conductor) at 77 K. In order to get sensitive and noiseless voltage signals the measurements were carried out with DC transport current and subjecting the broad surface tape to DC (0-300 mT) and AC (0-62 mT, 60 Hz) magnetic fields. The voltage is measured by a sensitive nanovoltmeter and the applied magnetic field is monitored by a Hall sensor placed on the tape broad surface. The comparison between the results obtained from the three tapes was done by fitting a power-law equation for currents in the vicinity of the critical current. For the current regime below the critical one a linear correlation of the electric field against the current density is observed. The BSCCO samples presented the same behavior, i.e., a decreasing of n-index with the increasing DC and AC magnetic field strength. Under AC field the decreasing slope of n-index is steeper as compared to DC field. The n-index curve for the YBCO tape showed similar behavior for AC field, however under DC field in the 0-390 mT range exhibited a slight decreasing of the n-index.

Is the Australian wool futures market efficient as a predictor of spot prices?

Giles and Goss (1980) have suggested that, if a futures market provides a forward pricing function, then it is an efficient market. In this article a simple test for whether the Australian Wool Futures market is efficient is proposed. The test is based on applying cointegration techniques to test the Law of One Price over a three, six, nine, and twelve month spread of futures prices. We found that the futures market is efficient for up to a six-month spread, but no further into the future. Because futures market prices can be used to predict spot prices up to six months in advance, woolgrowers can use the futures price to assess when they market their clip, but not for longer-term production planning decisions. (C) 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Right adolescent idiopathic thoracic curve (Lenke 1 A and B): does cost of instrumentation and implant density improve radiographic and cosmetic parameters?

In adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS) there has been a shift towards increasing the number of implants and pedicle screws, which has not been proven to improve cosmetic correction. To evaluate if increasing cost of instrumentation correlates with cosmetic correction using clinical photographs. 58 Lenke 1A and B cases from a multicenter AIS database with at least 3 months follow-up of clinical photographs were used for analysis. Cosmetic parameters on PA and forward bending photographs included angular measurements of trunk shift, shoulder balance, rib hump, and ratio measurements of waist line asymmetry. Pre-op and follow-up X-rays were measured for coronal and sagittal deformity parameters. Cost density was calculated by dividing the total cost of instrumentation by the number of vertebrae being fused. Linear regression and spearman`s correlation were used to correlate cost density to X-ray and photo outcomes. Three independent observers verified radiographic and cosmetic parameters for inter/interobserver variability analysis. Average pre-op Cobb angle and instrumented correction were 54A degrees (SD 12.5) and 59% (SD 25) respectively. The average number of vertebrae fused was 10 (SD 1.9). The total cost of spinal instrumentation ranged from $6,769 to $21,274 (Mean $12,662, SD $3,858). There was a weak positive and statistically significant correlation between Cobb angle correction and cost density (r = 0.33, p = 0.01), and no correlation between Cobb angle correction of the uninstrumented lumbar spine and cost density (r = 0.15, p = 0.26). There was no significant correlation between all sagittal X-ray measurements or any of the photo parameters and cost density. There was good to excellent inter/intraobserver variability of all photographic parameters based on the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC 0.74-0.98). Our method used to measure cosmesis had good to excellent inter/intraobserver variability, and may be an effective tool to objectively assess cosmesis from photographs. Since increasing cost density only improves mildly the Cobb angle correction of the main thoracic curve and not the correction of the uninstrumented spine or any of the cosmetic parameters, one should consider the cost of increasing implant density in Lenke 1A and B curves. In the area of rationalization of health care expenses, this study demonstrates that increasing the number of implants does not improve any relevant cosmetic or radiographic outcomes.