Amtrak: financial condition has deteriorated and future costs make recovery difficult.

Mode of access: Internet.

Should future health-care costs be discounted? The case of diabetes in Australia [Editorial]

No Abstract

Improving buildings energy performance: comparison between simple payback period and life cycle costs analysis

The building sector is one of the Europeâ s main energy consumer, making buildings an important target for a wiser energy use, improving indoor comfort conditions and reducing the energy consumption. To achieve the European Union targets for energy consumption and carbon reductions it is crucial to act in new, but also in existing buildings, which constitute the majority of the building stock. In existing buildings, the significant improvement of their efficiency requires important investments. Therefore, costs are a major concern in the decision making process and the analysis of the cost effectiveness of the interventions is an important path in the guidance for the selection of the different renovation scenarios. The Portuguese thermal legislation considers the simple payback method for the calculations of the time for the return of the investment. However, this method does not take into consideration inflation, cash flows and cost of capital, as well as the future costs of energy and the building elements lifetime as it happens in a life cycle cost analysis. In order to understand the impact of the economic analysis method used in the choice of the renovation measures, a case study has been analysed using simple payback calculations and life cycle costs analysis. Overall results show that less far-reaching renovation measures are indicated when using the simple payback calculations which may be leading to solutions less cost-effective in a long run perspective.

Costs of Reproduction in Breeding Female Mallards: Predation Risk during Incubation Drives Annual Mortality

The effort expended on reproduction may entail future costs, such as reduced survival or fecundity, and these costs can have an important influence on life-history optimization. For birds with precocial offspring, hypothesized costs of reproduction have typically emphasized nutritional and energetic investments in egg formation and incubation. We measured seasonal survival of 3856 radio-marked female Mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) from arrival on the breeding grounds through brood-rearing or cessation of breeding. There was a 2.5-fold direct increase in mortality risk associated with incubating nests in terrestrial habitats, whereas during brood-rearing when breeding females occupy aquatic habitats, mortality risk reached seasonal lows. Mortality risk also varied with calendar date and was highest during periods when large numbers of Mallards were nesting, suggesting that prey-switching behaviors by common predators may exacerbate risks to adults in all breeding stages. Although prior investments in egg laying and incubation affected mortality risk, most relationships were not consistent with the cost of reproduction hypothesis; birds with extensive prior investments in egg production or incubation typically survived better, suggesting that variation in individual quality drove both relationships. We conclude that for breeding female Mallards, the primary cost of reproduction is a fixed cost associated with placing oneself at risk to predators while incubating nests in terrestrial habitats.

Cost of malaria control in China: Henan's consolidation programme from community and government perspectives

Objective To assist with strategic planning for the eradication,of malaria in Henan Province, China, which reached the consolidation phase of malaria control in 1992, when only 318 malaria cases were reported, Methods We conducted a prospective two-year study of the costs for Henan's malaria control programme. We used a cost model that could also be applied to other malaria programmes in-mainland China, and analysed the cost of the three components of Henan's malaria programme. suspected malaria case management,, vector surveillance,,and population blood surveys. Primary cost data were collected from the government, and data on suspected malaria patient's were collected in two malaria counties (population 2 093 100). We enlisted the help of 260 village doctors. in six-townships or former communities (population 247 762), and studied all 12 315 reported cases of suspected malaria in catchment areas in 1994 and 1995. Findings The average-annual government investment in malaria control was estimated to be US$ 111 516 (case-management 59%; active blood surveys 25%;vector surveillance 12%; and contingencies and special projects 4%). The average cost (direct and indirect) for-patients seeking-treatment for suspected malaria was US$ 3.48, equivalent,to 10 days' income for rural residents. Each suspected malaria case cost the government an, average of US$ 0.78. Conclusion Further cuts in government funding will increase future costs, when epidemic malaria returns; investment in malaria control should therefore continue at least at current levels,of US$ 0.03 per person a risk.

Caracterização de águas do processo e optimização dos consumos de água nos vários circuitos da Petibol, S.A. – Embalagens de Plástico

A empresa Petibol, S.A. – Embalagens de plástico centra-se na produção de embalagens de plástico a partir da matéria-prima Poliestireno Expandido (EPS) e Polipropileno Expandido (EPP). A empresa possui uma preocupação ao nível da qualidade da água e do aproveitamento energético, tendo desta forma surgido a realização do estudo na unidade industrial, com o objectivo de anular e/ou diminuir as possíveis lacunas existentes na unidade industrial. Numa primeira etapa foi realizada uma caracterização global à qualidade da água e à empresa, actualizando-se os esquemas já existentes, contabilizando-se os custos actuais relativamente aos processos no circuito da água (arrefecimento, aquecimento e pressurização), e por fim, efectuou-se um levantamento in loco do circuito de água, relativamente à pressão, temperatura e caudal. Numa fase posterior, foram propostos equipamentos e processos, tendo em vista a colmatação dos problemas identificados, realizando-se um subsequente estudo relativamente aos custos inerentes a esses novos processos. A caracterização à água foi avaliada em diferentes pontos do circuito industrial, tendo-se determinado na Sala de Bombagem que o filtro de areia não possuía as dimensões mais apropriadas, existindo também um problema a nível mecânico associado ao processo de contra-lavagem. Tais factos podem ser a causa da ocorrência de um aumento do teor de sólidos após a passagem na camada filtrante. Relativamente ao amaciador, este deveria amaciar de forma completa a água para alimentação à caldeira, embora se tenha registado à saída do amaciador uma dureza de 21,3 mg/L, denunciando problemas na troca iónica. No que toca à água de alimentação à caldeira, verifica-se a existência de parâmetros que não se encontram de acordo com os critérios enunciados para uma óptima qualidade, sendo eles o pH (10,14), condutividade (363 μS/cm), teor de ferro (1,21 mg/L) e a dureza (16 mg/L). De salientar que somente o teor de cobre, que se encontra em quantidades vestigiais, apresenta-se de acordo com os valores impostos. No que respeita à água da caldeira, esta apresenta parâmetros incompatíveis com os recomendados, sendo eles a condutividade (7350 μS/cm), teor de sólidos dissolvidos (5248 mg/L) e alcalinidade total (780 mg/L). De referir que o valor de pH (11,8) não se encontra de acordo com a aplicação do tratamento “fosfato-pH coordenado”. Em relação aos parâmetros com valores que se encontram dentro dos limites, estes correspondem à dureza (0 mg/L), ao teor de fosfatos (45 mg/L) e teor de sílica (0 mg/L). A água do circuito de arrefecimento foi sujeita a uma análise microbiológica, que corroborou a presença de um biofilme. Um dos problemas enunciados pela empresa, prendia-se com a impossibilidade de descarga, no colector municipal, dos condensados dos compressores, visto apresentarem uma quantidade de óleo de cerca de 43,3 mg/L, equivalente a quatro vezes o valor limite de emissão, de acordo com a legislação municipal. Por fim, o efluente de descarga industrial apresenta um valor de pH (10,3) acima do intervalo permitido por lei (6,0 – 9,0), sendo que a corrente que mais contribui para este acréscimo de pH corresponde à corrente proveniente da água de purga, visto esta apresentar um valor de pH de 12,22. De maneira a contornar os parâmetros enunciados, é proposto a substituição do filtro de areia da Sala de Bombagem, assim como a inserção de um conjunto de medidas de remoção de ferro e desinfecção, sendo a conjugação de arejamento, coagulação, filtração e desinfecção, por parte do hipoclorito, a proposta apresentada. Aos condensados dos compressores é apresentado um sistema de separação, que possibilita a remoção do óleo da água, e uma consequente descarga da mesma. Actualmente, não existe qualquer filtro de areia no circuito de arrefecimento da água, sendo proposto assim esse equipamento, de forma a minorar o desenvolvimento da população microbiana, bem como a permitir uma maior eficiência na transferência de calor na torre de arrefecimento. Relativamente à descarga industrial, é recomendável a colocação de um sistema de regularização automática de pH. A inserção de uma válvula de três vias permite um aproveitamento energético e de água, a partir da confluência da água oriunda dos furos com a água do tanque de água fria, sendo posteriormente alimentada à central de vácuo. No estudo da recuperação energética, um outro equipamento avaliado correspondeu à serpentina, no entanto, verificou-se que a poupança no consumo de gás natural era de apenas 0,005%, o que não se mostrou uma proposta viável. O orçamento de todos os equipamentos é de 11.720,76 €, possibilitando não só um melhor funcionamento industrial, como um menor impacto a nível ambiental. Os custos futuros de funcionamento aumentam em 3,36%, tendo a pressurização um aumento do seu custo em 3,4% em relação ao custo actual, verificando-se um custo anual de 10.781,21€, em relação aos processos de arejamento, coagulação e desinfecção.

The adaptive dynamics of niche constructing traits in spatially subdivided populations: evolving posthumous extended phenotypes.

Niche construction, by which organisms modify the environment in which they live, has been proposed to affect the evolution of many phenotypic traits. But what about the evolution of a niche constructing trait itself, whose expression changes the pattern of natural selection to which the trait is exposed in subsequent generations? This article provides an inclusive fitness analysis of selection on niche constructing phenotypes, which can affect their environment from local to global scales in arbitrarily spatially subdivided populations. The model shows that phenotypic effects of genes extending far beyond the life span of the actor can be affected by natural selection, provided they modify the fitness of those individuals living in the future that are likely to have inherited the niche construction lineage of the actor. Present benefits of behaviors are thus traded off against future indirect costs. The future costs will generally result from a complicated interplay of phenotypic effects, population demography and environmental dynamics. To illustrate these points, I derive the adaptive dynamics of a trait involved in the consumption of an abiotic resource, where resource abundance in future generations feeds back to the evolutionary dynamics of the trait.

Reforming the Iowa Civil Justice System, January 30, 2012

Executive Summary I. Survey The Task Force conducted a wide-ranging survey of more than 9,000 licensed Iowa attorneys and judges to obtain their input on a variety of civil justice system topics. The survey results helped inform the Task Force of problem areas in Iowa’s civil justice system. II. Two-Tier Justice System The Task Force recommends a pilot program based on a two-tier civil justice system. A two-tier system would streamline litigation processes—including rules of evidence and discovery disclosures—and reduce litigation costs of certain cases falling below a threshold dollar value. III. One Judge/One Case and Date Certain for Trial Some jurisdictions in Iowa have adopted one judge/one case and date certain for trial in certain cases. The assignment of one judge to each case for the life of the matter and the establishment of dates certain for civil trials could enhance Iowans’ access to the courts, improve judicial management, promote consistency and adherence to deadlines, and reduce discovery excesses. IV. Discovery Processes Reforms addressing inefficient discovery processes will reduce delays in and costs of litigation. Such measures include adopting an aspirational purpose for discovery rules to “secure the just, speedy, and inexpensive determination of every action,” holding discovery proportional to the size and nature of the case, requiring initial disclosures, limiting the number of expert witnesses, and enforcing existing rules. V. Expert Witness Fees The Task Force acknowledges the probable need to revisit the statutory additional daily compensation limit for expert witness fees. Leaving the compensation level to the discretion of the trial court is one potential solution. VI. Jurors Additions to the standard juror questionnaire would provide a better understanding of the potential jurors’ backgrounds and suitability for jury service. The Task Force encourages adoption of more modern juror educational materials and video. Rehabilitation of prospective jurors who express an unwillingness or inability to be fair should include a presumption of dismissal. VII. Video and Teleconferencing Options When court resources are constrained both by limited numbers of personnel and budget cuts, it is logical to look to video and teleconferencing technology to streamline the court process and reduce costs. The judicial branch should embrace technological developments in ways that will not compromise the fairness, dignity, solemnity, and decorum of judicial proceedings. VIII. Court-Annexed Alternative Dispute Resolution(ADR) Litigants and practitioners in Iowa are generally satisfied with the current use of private, voluntary ADR for civil cases. There is concern, however, that maintaining the status quo may have steep future costs. Court-annexed ADR is an important aspect of any justice system reform effort, and the Task Force perceives benefits and detriments to reforming this aspect of the Iowa civil justice system. IX. Relaxed Requirement of Findings of Fact and Conclusions of Law A rule authorizing parties to waive findings of fact and conclusions of law could expedite resolution of nonjury civil cases. X. Business (Specialty) Courts Specialty business courts have achieved widespread support across the country. In addition, specialty courts provide excellent vehicles for implementing or piloting other court innovations that may be useful in a broader court system context. A business specialty court should be and could be piloted in Iowa within the existing court system framework of the Iowa Judicial Branch. Appendix included as a separate document, is 176 pages.

Uuteen organisaatioon rakennettavan kustannuslaskentajärjestelmän sertifioiminen valtionhallinnossa: Case Maanmittauslaitos

Työn lähtökohtana oli tieto siitä, että Valtiontalouden tarkastusvirasto (VTV) on lähtenyt tarjoamaan kustannuslaskentajärjestelmien sertifiointeja valtion virastoille ja laitoksille. Ensimmäisenä tavoitteena oli selvittää, mitä kustannuslaskentajärjestelmien sertifioiminen valtionhallinnossa tarkoittaa. Työn toisena tavoitteena oli selvittää, miten Maanmittauslaitoksen kustannuslaskenta muuttuu vuoden 2014 vaihteessa tapahtuvan organisaatiouudistuksen johdosta, ja miten ja milloin tämä uusi kustannuslaskentajärjestelmä voidaan sertifioida. Diplomityö toteutettiin tapaustutkimuksena ja empiirinen aineisto kerättiin kvalitatiivisin menetelmin tekemällä organisaation sisäisiä ja ulkoisia haastatteluja. Maanmittauslaitoksen lisäksi haastateltavat osapuolet olivat VTV, Ernst & Young, sertifiointiprosessin lähes läpikäyneen Riista- ja kalatalouden tutkimuslaitoksen entinen ja nykyinen talouspäällikkö, Maa- ja metsätalousministeriö ja Valtiokonttori. Haastatteluiden lisäksi valtion virastoilta ja laitoksilta kysyttiin ovatko he kuulleet VTV:n tarjoamasta sertifiointipalvelusta ja ovatko he kiinnostuneita tästä kyseisestä palvelusta. Työn tuloksista käy ilmi, että VTV:n palvelu etenee samalla tavalla kuin mikä tahansa muu sertifiointiprosessi. VTV:n palvelu eroaa kuitenkin jonkin verran sertifioinnin perusrakenteesta, koska kustannuslaskentajärjestelmien tapauksessa ei ole laadittu yleisiä standardeja kustannuslaskennalle. Tämän vuoksi perusrakenteessa ei ole ollenkaan standardin omistajaa. Standardin omistajan paikalle sijoittuvat laki valtion talousarviosta ja asetus valtion talousarviosta. Maanmittauslaitoksen kustannuslaskenta muuttuu organisaatiouudistuksen myötä odotettua enemmän. Uuden organisaatiorakenteen vuoksi kustannuksia ei tarvitse vyöryttää toimintayksiköille, tulosyksiköille ja vastuualueille. Kustannukset vyörytetään jatkossa vain tuotteille ja projekteille. Maanmittauslaitoksen kannattaa sertifioida uusi kustannuslaskentajärjestelmänsä vuonna 2014, vaikka seuraavien vuosien aikana on tiedossa uusia muutoksia sekä organisaatioon, että tietojärjestelmiin. Ennen varsinaista tarkastusta Maanmittauslaitoksen kustannuslaskentajärjestelmä kuvattiin uudelleen.

Prevenção em diabetes: efeitos do treino de automonitoração na redução de fatores de risco

Dados da Sociedade Brasileira de Diabetes mostram o crescimento acelerado do diabetes mellitus (DM) na população e a grande maioria dos portadores não sabem do diagnóstico. A Análise do Comportamento Aplicada à Saúde se mostra consoante com a proposta da Organização Mundial Saúde, que prioriza variáveis ambientais e comportamentais para prevenir e gerenciar condições crônicas e tem direcionado muitos estudos com enfoque na adesão de pacientes ao tratamento e na redução dos prejuízos que as doenças crônicas oferecem à saúde destes. No entanto, torna-se imprescindível a eliminação ou redução de custos futuros para pessoas que apresentam fatores de risco como excesso de peso, história familiar, sedentarismo e alimentação inadequada. Por outro lado, estudos indicam que o treino em automonitoração pode ser eficaz na aquisição e manutenção de comportamentos que promovam a saúde e reduzam a incidência de doenças. Com base no modelo construcional, o objetivo deste estudo foi verificar, por meio de estudo de caso, os efeitos de um treino em automonitoração na construção e ampliação de comportamentos preventivos por quatro indivíduos com histórico familiar de diabetes, alimentação inadequada e sedentarismo, filhos de pacientes atendidos no Programa de Atenção ao Portador de Diabetes do Hospital Universitário Bettina Ferro de Souza. Os participantes foram distribuídos em duas condições, sendo dois na Condição-Treino (CT) e dois na Condição-Não Treino (CNT). Foram realizadas visitas domiciliares para investigação de dados sóciodemográficos, Linhas de Base 1 e 2 do comportamento alimentar e da atividade física, intervenção com os participantes da CT, entrevista quinzenal com os participantes da CNT e entrevista final. Os resultados apontam mudanças significativas referentes à aquisição e ampliação de hábitos alimentares mais saudáveis e atividade física pelos participantes da CT e apontam poucas mudanças na aquisição e ampliação desses hábitos pelos participantes da CNT. A discussão dos resultados abrange aspectos que indicam a aquisição de comportamentos preventivos, relacionando-os com a literatura utilizada e ao final faz-se uma conclusão geral sobre a realização deste estudo.

Comparative cost-effectiveness of Option B+ for prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV in Malawi.

OBJECTIVE To estimate the cost-effectiveness of prevention of mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) of HIV with lifelong antiretroviral therapy (ART) for pregnant and breastfeeding women ('Option B+') compared with ART during pregnancy or breastfeeding only unless clinically indicated ('Option B'). DESIGN Mathematical modelling study of first and second pregnancy, informed by data from the Malawi Option B+ programme. METHODS Individual-based simulation model. We simulated cohorts of 10 000 women and their infants during two subsequent pregnancies, including the breastfeeding period, with either Option B+ or B. We parameterized the model with data from the literature and by analysing programmatic data. We compared total costs of antenatal and postnatal care, and lifetime costs and disability-adjusted life-years of the infected infants between Option B+ and Option B. RESULTS During the first pregnancy, 15% of the infants born to HIV-infected mothers acquired the infection. With Option B+, 39% of the women were on ART at the beginning of the second pregnancy, compared with 18% with Option B. For second pregnancies, the rates MTCT were 11.3% with Option B+ and 12.3% with Option B. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio comparing the two options ranged between about US$ 500 and US$ 1300 per DALY averted. CONCLUSION Option B+ prevents more vertical transmissions of HIV than Option B, mainly because more women are already on ART at the beginning of the next pregnancy. Option B+ is a cost-effective strategy for PMTCT if the total future costs and lost lifetime of the infected infants are taken into account.

Exploring users inter-temporal preferences for measuring transport social equity effects

There exist different ways for defining a welfare function. Traditionally, welfare economic theory foundation is based on the Net Present Value (NPV) calculation where the time dependent preferences of considered agents are taken into account. However, the time preferences, remains a controversial subject. Currently, the traditional approach employs a unique discount rate for various agents. Nevertheless, this way of discounting appears inconsistent with sustainable development. New research work suggests that the discount rate may not be a homogeneous value. The discount rates may change following the individual’s preferences. A significant body of evidence suggests that people do not behave following a constant discount rate. In fact, UK Government has quickly recognized the power of the arguments for time-varying rates, as it has done in its official guidance to Ministries on the appraisal of investments and policies. Other authors deal with not just time preference but with uncertainty about future income (precautionary saving). In a situation in which economic growth rates are similar across time periods, the rationale for declining social optimal discount rates is driven by the preferences of the individuals in the economy, rather than expectations of growth. However, these approaches have been mainly focused on long-term policies where intergenerational risks may appear. The traditional cost-benefit analysis (CBA) uses a unique discount rate derived from market interest rates or investment rates of return for discounting the costs and benefits of all social agents included in the CBA. However, recent literature showed that a more adequate measure of social benefit is possible by using different discount rates including inter-temporal preferences rate of users, private investment discount rate and intertemporal preferences rate of government. Actually, the costs of opportunity may differ amongst individuals, firms, governments, or society in general, as do the returns on savings. In general, the firms or operators require an investment rate linked to the current return on savings, while the discount rate of consumers-users depends on their time preferences with respect of the current and the future consumption, as well as society can take into account the intergenerational well-being, adopting a lower discount rate for today’s generation. Time discount rate of social actors (users, operators, government and society) places a lower value in a future gain, but the uncertainty about future income strongly determines the individual preferences. These time and uncertainty depends on preferences and should be integrated into a transport policy formulation that may have significant social impacts. The discount rate of a user cannot be the same than the operator’s discount rate. The preferences of both are different. In addition, another school of thought suggests that people, such as a social group, may have different attitudes towards future costs and benefits. Particularly, the users have different discount rates related to their income. Some research work tried to modify user discount rates using a compensating weight which represents the inverse of household income level. The inter-temporal preferences are a proxy of the willingness to pay during the time. Its consideration is important in order to make acceptable or not a policy or investment

The Conservation reserve--yesterday, today and tomorrow : symposium proceedings, January 14, 1991, Washington, DC /

"These papers were presented at the 1991 meeting of the Society for Range Management in a Symposium titled "The Conservaton Reserve - Yesterday, Today and Tomorrow"--Pref.

A production planning system for plastic footwear in a seasonal market

Modern injection-moulding machinery which produces several, pairs of plastic footwear at a time brought increased production planning problems to a factory. The demand for its footwear is seasonal but the company's manning policy keeps a fairly constant production level thus determining the aggregate stock. Production planning must therefore be done within the limitations of a specified total stock. The thesis proposes a new production planning system with four subsystems. These are sales forecasting, resource planning, and two levels of production scheduling: (a) aggregate decisions concerning the 'manufacturing group' (group of products) to be produced in each machine each week, and (b) detailed decisions concerning the products within a manufacturing group to be scheduled into each mould-place. The detailed scheduling is least dependent on improvements elsewhere so the sub-systems were tackled in reverse order. The thesis concentrates on the production scheduling sub-systems which will provide most. of the benefits. The aggregate scheduling solution depends principally on the aggregate stocks of each manufacturing group and their division into 'safety stocks' (to prevent shortages) and 'freestocks' (to permit batch production). The problem is too complex for exact solution but a good heuristic solution, which has yet to be implemented, is provided by minimising graphically immediate plus expected future costs. The detailed problem splits into determining the optimal safety stocks and batch quantities given the appropriate aggregate stocks. It.is found that the optimal safety stocks are proportional to the demand. The ideal batch quantities are based on a modified, formula for the Economic Batch Quantity and the product schedule is created week by week using a priority system which schedules to minimise expected future costs. This algorithm performs almost optimally. The detailed scheduling solution was implemented and achieved the target savings for the whole project in favourable circumstances. Future plans include full implementation.

Accommodating energy price volatility in life cycle cost analysis of asphalt pavements

Energy price is related to more than half of the total life cycle cost of asphalt pavements. Furthermore, the fluctuation related to price of energy has been much higher than the general inflation and interest rate. This makes the energy price inflation an important variable that should be addressed when performing life cycle cost (LCC) studies re- garding asphalt pavements. The present value of future costs is highly sensitive to the selected discount rate. Therefore, the choice of the discount rate is the most critical element in LCC analysis during the life time of a project. The objective of the paper is to present a discount rate for asphalt pavement projects as a function of interest rate, general inflation and energy price inflation. The discount rate is defined based on the portion of the energy related costs during the life time of the pavement. Consequently, it can reflect the financial risks related to the energy price in asphalt pavement projects. It is suggested that a discount rate sensitivity analysis for asphalt pavements in Sweden should range between –20 and 30%.