A fuzzy reed-frost model for epidemic spreading

In this paper, we present a fuzzy approach to the Reed-Frost model for epidemic spreading taking into account uncertainties in the diagnostic of the infection. The heterogeneities in the infected group is based on the clinical signals of the individuals (symptoms, laboratorial exams, medical findings, etc.), which are incorporated into the dynamic of the epidemic. The infectivity level is time-varying and the classification of the individuals is performed through fuzzy relations. Simulations considering a real problem with data of the viral epidemic in a children daycare are performed and the results are compared with a stochastic Reed-Frost generalization

The role of the observed tropical convection in the generation of frost events in the southern cone of South America

Based on previous results obtained from observations and linear wave theory analysis, the hypothesis that large-scale patterns can generate extreme cold events in southeast South America through the propagation of remotely excited Rossby waves was already suggested. This work will confirm these findings and extend their analysis through a series of numerical experiments using a primitive equation model where waves are excited by a thermal forcing situated in positions chosen according to observed convection anomalies over the equatorial region. The basic state used for these experiments is a composite of austral winters with maximum and minimum frequency of occurrence of generalized frosts that can affect a large area known as the Wet Pampas located in the central and eastern part of Argentina. The results suggest that stationary Rossby waves may be one important mechanism linking anomalous tropical convection with the extreme cold events in the Wet Pampas. The combination of tropical convection and a specific basic state can generate the right environment to guide the Rossby waves trigged by the tropical forcing towards South America. Depending on the phase of the waves entering the South American continent, they can favour the advection of anomalous wind at low levels from the south carrying cold and dry air over the whole southern extreme of the continent, producing a generalized frost in the Wet Pampa region. On the other hand, when a basic state based on the composites of minimum frosts is used, an anomalous anticyclone over the southern part of the continent generates a circulation with a south-southeast wind which brings maritime air and therefore humidity over the Wet Pampas region, creating negative temperature anomalies only over the northeastern part of the region. Under these conditions even if frosts occur they would not be generalized, as observed for the other basic state with maximum frequency of occurrence of generalized frosts.

A fuzzy Reed-Frost model for epidemic spreading

In this paper, we present a fuzzy approach to the Reed-Frost model for epidemic spreading taking into account uncertainties in the diagnostic of the infection. The heterogeneities in the infected group is based on the clinical signals of the individuals (symptoms, laboratorial exams, medical findings, etc.), which are incorporated into the dynamic of the epidemic. The infectivity level is time-varying and the classification of the individuals is performed through fuzzy relations. Simulations considering a real problem with data of the viral epidemic in a children daycare are performed and the results are compared with a stochastic Reed-Frost generalization.

Frost Action in Rocks and Concrete, HR-258, 1986

The objectives of the project were to develop methodologies for (i) prediction and measurement of the magnitude of pressure which develops within pores of saturated porous materials upon freezing, (ii) determination of pore structure (pore size distribution) of porous materials; (iii) prediction and measurement of the rate with which pore ice grows; and (iv) prediction of frost susceptibility of porous materials with varying pore structures. As with all research endeavors solution of one problem leads to another one and this project was no exception. Emergence of new problems and the measures taken as the work progressed were discussed in progress reports submitted to the board. This final report will discuss only the conclusive finds and suggest measures to be taken for future investigations. The theory discussed in the proposal is not repeated in this report for the sake of brevity. However, the paper published as part of this project containing the theory is attached as Appendix I for the reader interested in the theory. In conformity with the objectives, this report consists of four parts. In accordance with the project contract two ice porosimeters were built and one will be delivered to the Iowa DOT after training of a DOT technician under the supervision of Mr. Wendell Dubberke with assistance from ISU researchers. During the training period debugging and further improvements in software will continue.

Development of an Expert System for Forecasting Frost on Bridges and Roadways in Iowa, HR-305, 1991

An expert system has been developed that provides 24 hour forecasts of roadway and bridge frost for locations in Iowa. The system is based on analysis of frost observations taken by highway maintenance personnel, analysis of conditions leading to frost as obtained from meteorologists with experience in forecasting bridge and roadway frost, and from fundamental physical principles of frost processes. The expert system requires the forecaster to enter information on recent maximum and minimum temperatures and forecasts of maximum and minimum air temperatures, dew point temperatures, precipitation, cloudiness, and wind speed. The system has been used operationally for the last two frost seasons by Freese-Notis Associates, who have been under contract with the Iowa DOT to supply frost forecasts. The operational meteorologists give the system their strong endorsement. They always consult the system before making a frost forecast unless conditions clearly indicate frost is not likely. In operational use, the system is run several times with different input values to test the sensitivity of frost formation on a particular day to various meteorological parameters. The users comment. that the system helps them to consider all the factors relevant to frost formation and is regarded as an office companion for making frost forecasts.

Development of a Conductometric Test for Frost Resistance of Concrete, HR-272, 1988

Research is described that was aimed at developing a test method which can be reasonably and rapidly performed in the laboratory and in the field to predict, with a high degree of certainty, the behavior of concrete subjected to the action of alternate freezing and thawing. The conductometric evaluation of concrete durability was explored with 3 different test methods: conductometric evaluation of the resistance of concrete to rapid freezing and thawing; conductomtric evaluation of the resistance of concrete to natural freezing and thawing, and conductometric evaluation of the pore size distribution of concrete and its correlation to concrete durability. The study showed that conductance could be used as a viable method for determining the durability of portland cement concrete. This would also allow the continuous monitoring of concrete durability without the removal twice per week from the freeze/thaw chamber. Recommendations for the continued development of these test methods are also included.

Development of a Conductometric Test for Frost Resistance of Concrete, HR-272, Phase II, 1986

The purpose of this report is to describe the major research activities during the period of February 1, 1985 - October 30, 1986 for the Iowa Highway Research Board under the research contract entitled "Development of a Conductometric Test for Frost Resistance of Concrete." The objective of this research, as stated in the project proposal, is to develop a test method which can be reasonably rapidly performed in the laboratory and in the field to predict the behavior of concrete subjected to the action of alternate freezing and thawing with a high degree of certainty. In the work plan of the proposal it was stated that the early part of the first year would be devoted to construction of testing equipment and preparation of specimens and the remainder of the year would be devoted to the testing of specimens. It was also stated that the second and third years would be devoted to performance and refinements of tests, data analysis, preparation of suggested specifications, and performance of tests covering variables which need to be studied such as types of aggregates, fly ash replacements and other admixtures. The objective of this report is to describe the progress made during the first 20 months of this project and assess the significance of the results obtained thus far and the expected significance of the results obtainable during the third year of the project.

I eld, i blod, i frost, i svält : möten med veteraners, lottors och sjuksköterskors berättande om krig

Folkligt berättande om krig är i fokus i min avhandling i folkloristik som baserar sig på intervjuer med tio män och tio kvinnor som själva deltagit aktivt i krigen 1939–1944 i Finland. Intervjuerna utgick från deras upplevelser av J.L. Runebergs verk Fänrik Ståls sägner och övergick sedan i berättande om deras egna erfarenheter från vinterkriget och fortsättningskriget. Jag arbetar med oral history som teoretiskt ramverk, och har ett antagande om att man genom studiet av personligt berättande om historiska händelser kan få syn på annat än sådant som förs fram av historieskrivningen. Fyra innehållsliga huvudteman har utkristalliserat sig för mig i analysen av materialet: möten med tjänstgöringen, möten med kroppen, möten med olika etniska andra, och möten med tiden efter kriget. Utöver den tematiska analysen studerar jag också hur jag som forskare är med och skapar materialet under intervjuerna, och jag ser bland annat att jag som hör till intervjupersonernas barnbarnsgeneration fick höra hur de på flera plan vill undervisa mig dels om krigshändelserna, dels om hur man borde förhålla sig till kriget och Finland. Som ett led i detta använder sig intervjupersonerna av något som jag kallar för typfigurer. Genom återkommande typfigurer som exempelvis ”Den ståndaktige soldaten”, ”Den elaka styvmodern” eller ”Kommunisten” förmedlas en viss innehållslig kunskap om krig samtidigt som de genererar vissa folkliga moraluppfattningar. I min avhandling visar jag att berättandet om krigen 1939–1944 är symboliskt laddat och att det mycket starkt förmedlar värderingar om vad som är rätt och riktigt. Man kan säga att berättande om krig är mytologiserande, och att det mytologiserar så väl kriget i sig som landet Finland, och härmed kan sägas producera sanningar som inte kan ifrågasättas. Genren krigsberättelser är inte det samma som berättande om krig. En konsekvens av detta är ett könsbestämt och ofta omedvetet nedtystande av kvinnor och ett ointresse för deras upplevelser och erfarenheter. Detta visar på etablerade och könsbestämda definitioner av vad som ses som historia och vilka roller som får figurera i den.