Bootstrap for panel data models with an application to the evaluation of public policies

Le but de cette thèse est d étendre la théorie du bootstrap aux modèles de données de panel. Les données de panel s obtiennent en observant plusieurs unités statistiques sur plusieurs périodes de temps. Leur double dimension individuelle et temporelle permet de contrôler l 'hétérogénéité non observable entre individus et entre les périodes de temps et donc de faire des études plus riches que les séries chronologiques ou les données en coupe instantanée. L 'avantage du bootstrap est de permettre d obtenir une inférence plus précise que celle avec la théorie asymptotique classique ou une inférence impossible en cas de paramètre de nuisance. La méthode consiste à tirer des échantillons aléatoires qui ressemblent le plus possible à l échantillon d analyse. L 'objet statitstique d intérêt est estimé sur chacun de ses échantillons aléatoires et on utilise l ensemble des valeurs estimées pour faire de l inférence. Il existe dans la littérature certaines application du bootstrap aux données de panels sans justi cation théorique rigoureuse ou sous de fortes hypothèses. Cette thèse propose une méthode de bootstrap plus appropriée aux données de panels. Les trois chapitres analysent sa validité et son application. Le premier chapitre postule un modèle simple avec un seul paramètre et s 'attaque aux propriétés théoriques de l estimateur de la moyenne. Nous montrons que le double rééchantillonnage que nous proposons et qui tient compte à la fois de la dimension individuelle et la dimension temporelle est valide avec ces modèles. Le rééchantillonnage seulement dans la dimension individuelle n est pas valide en présence d hétérogénéité temporelle. Le ré-échantillonnage dans la dimension temporelle n est pas valide en présence d'hétérogénéité individuelle. Le deuxième chapitre étend le précédent au modèle panel de régression. linéaire. Trois types de régresseurs sont considérés : les caractéristiques individuelles, les caractéristiques temporelles et les régresseurs qui évoluent dans le temps et par individu. En utilisant un modèle à erreurs composées doubles, l'estimateur des moindres carrés ordinaires et la méthode de bootstrap des résidus, on montre que le rééchantillonnage dans la seule dimension individuelle est valide pour l'inférence sur les coe¢ cients associés aux régresseurs qui changent uniquement par individu. Le rééchantillonnage dans la dimen- sion temporelle est valide seulement pour le sous vecteur des paramètres associés aux régresseurs qui évoluent uniquement dans le temps. Le double rééchantillonnage est quand à lui est valide pour faire de l inférence pour tout le vecteur des paramètres. Le troisième chapitre re-examine l exercice de l estimateur de différence en di¤érence de Bertrand, Duflo et Mullainathan (2004). Cet estimateur est couramment utilisé dans la littérature pour évaluer l impact de certaines poli- tiques publiques. L exercice empirique utilise des données de panel provenant du Current Population Survey sur le salaire des femmes dans les 50 états des Etats-Unis d Amérique de 1979 à 1999. Des variables de pseudo-interventions publiques au niveau des états sont générées et on s attend à ce que les tests arrivent à la conclusion qu il n y a pas d e¤et de ces politiques placebos sur le salaire des femmes. Bertrand, Du o et Mullainathan (2004) montre que la non-prise en compte de l hétérogénéité et de la dépendance temporelle entraîne d importantes distorsions de niveau de test lorsqu'on évalue l'impact de politiques publiques en utilisant des données de panel. Une des solutions préconisées est d utiliser la méthode de bootstrap. La méthode de double ré-échantillonnage développée dans cette thèse permet de corriger le problème de niveau de test et donc d'évaluer correctement l'impact des politiques publiques.

Resources for an Intersectorial Management of Public Policies: Mobility and Access

The objective of this paper is to integrate mobility as across component of the management of specific public actions. The case of study concerns the public health services in Argentina, and mother’s mobility conditions in the suburban of the Buenos Aires Metropolitan Area. In terms of methodology, the paper working on the concept of access trying to identify, measure and evaluate the relationship between mobility conditions and maternal health care. Access is weighted according to the realization of health services, and not according to the arrival at the places where they are offers. The result is innovative empirical evidence, useful as an indicator to make more relevant the role of mobility within the public agenda of transport and others specific sectors, asa basic social right behind the access that requires coordinated actions and cross-sectoral approaches.

Applying negotiation skills in the design of public policies: analysis of the city of São Paulo’s invoice program

The author argues that by applying problem-solving negotiation skills in the design of public policies, public administrators benefit from more effective and wide-ranging outcomes in the realization of their goals. In order to demonstrate this idea, the author analyzes how negotiation skills – such as identifying key actors and their interests, recognizing hardbargaining tactics and changing the players, knowing your best alternative, creating value and building trust – permeated and contributed to the success of the City of São Paulo’s Invoice Program (“Programa Nota Fiscal Paulistana”), a public policy aimed at combating tax evasion of service tax in the City of São Paulo.

Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean 2009-2010: The distributive impact of public policies

Includes bibliography

Law and economics in the civil law world: the case of Brazilian Courts

Conventional wisdom holds that economic analysis of law is either embryonic or nonexistent outside of the United States generally and in civil law jurisdictions in particular. Existing explanations for the assumed lack of interest in the application of economic reasoning to legal problems range from the different structure of legal education and academia outside of the United States to the peculiar characteristics of civilian legal systems. This paper challenges this view by documenting and explaining the growing use of economic reasoning by Brazilian courts. We argue that, given the ever-greater role of courts in the formulation of public policies, the application of legal principles and rules increasingly calls for a theory of human behavior (such as that provided by economics) to help foresee the likely aggregate consequences of different interpretations of the law. Consistent with the traditional role of civilian legal scholarship in providing guidance for the application of law by courts, the further development of law and economics in Brazil is therefore likely to be mostly driven by judicial demand.

Distributive impact of public policy

Includes bibliography

Gender, the environment and the sustainability of development

Includes bibliography

Public policies for equality: Towards universal social protection systems

Incluye bibliografía.

Scientific concepts and public policies: Semiotic-cultural obstacles concerning intergroup and intercultural relationships

I attempt to articulate Jahoda's (2012) critical reflections regarding definitions of culture in recent cross-cultural studies and Moghaddam's (2012) claims of an omnicultural imperative to guide the elaboration of public policies for managing relationships among human groups from different cultural origins. For this, I will approach some aspects of the socio-historical and ontogenetic roots of the notion of culture. The notion of culture and the consequent public policies involving intercultural managing are being transformed as our global society develops. It has been proposed that some ways of dealing with the culture of the other are crucial to achieve awareness in respect of one's own cultural positioning when making science and attempting social interventions. Finally, the experience of Brazilian psychologists working on challenges faced by Amerindians dealing with the national society they live in will be presented as a pioneering work aiming to interfere in the development of public policies ethically concerned with the assurance of cultural integrity of currently marginalized social groups.

Public policies and multilingualism in HCI

Language is an essential aspect of human communication and interaction, not only between humans but also between humans and interactive systems. Indeed, the use of the language is a keystone for the design of interactive systems.Inappropriate use of language might limit the access of users to information and induce users to make mistakes or to lose control of interactive systems. Despite the existence of public policies, the diversity of languages poses serious problems when considering full-fledged/seamless support for all existing languages. And yet standardization processes have successfully defined mechanisms for ensuring cross-platform compatibility between languages, at least at the level of format and the set of characters that can be used.

Weaknesses in the reporting of cross-sectional studies according to the STROBE statement: the case of metabolic syndrome in adults from Peru

Introduction: The inadequate reporting of cross-sectional studies, as in the case of the prevalence of metabolic syndrome, could cause problems in the synthesis of new evidence and lead to errors in the formulation of public policies. Objective: To evaluate the reporting quality of the articles regarding metabolic syndrome prevalence in Peruvian adults using the STROBE recommendations. Methods: We conducted a thorough literature search with the terms "Metabolic Syndrome", "Sindrome Metabolico" and "Peru" in MEDLINE/PubMed, LILACS, SciELO, LIPECS and BVS-Peru until December 2014. We selected those who were populationbased observational studies with randomized sampling that reported prevalence of metabolic syndrome in adults aged 18 or more of both sexes. Information was analysed through the STROBE score per item and recommendation. Results: Seventeen articles were included in this study. All articles met the recommendations related to the report of the study’s rationale, design, and provision of summary measures. The recommendations with the lowest scores were those related to the sensitivity analysis (8%, n= 1/17), participant flowchart (18%, n= 3/17), missing data analysis (24%, n= 4/17), and number of participants in each study phase (24%, n= 4/17). Conclusion: Cross-sectional studies regarding the prevalence of metabolic syndrome in peruvian adults have an inadequate reporting on the methods and results sections. We identified a clear need to improve the quality of such studies.

Weaknesses in the reporting of cross-sectional studies according to the STROBE statement: the case of metabolic syndrome in adults from Peru

Introduction: The inadequate reporting of cross-sectional studies, as in the case of the prevalence of metabolic syndrome, could cause problems in the synthesis of new evidence and lead to errors in the formulation of public policies. Objective: To evaluate the reporting quality of the articles regarding metabolic syndrome prevalence in Peruvian adults using the STROBE recommendations. Methods: We conducted a thorough literature search with the terms "Metabolic Syndrome", "Sindrome Metabolico" and "Peru" in MEDLINE/PubMed, LILACS, SciELO, LIPECS and BVS-Peru until December 2014. We selected those who were population-based observational studies with randomized sampling that reported prevalence of metabolic syndrome in adults aged 18 or more of both sexes. Information was analysed through the STROBE score per item and recommendation. Results: Seventeen articles were included in this study. All articles met the recommendations related to the report of the study’s rationale, design, and provision of summary measures. The recommendations with the lowest scores were those related to the sensitivity analysis (8%, n= 1/17), participant flowchart (18%, n= 3/17), missing data analysis (24%, n= 4/17), and number of participants in each study phase (24%, n= 4/17). Conclusion: Cross-sectional studies regarding the prevalence of metabolic syndrome in peruvian adults have an inadequate reporting on the methods and results sections. We identified a clear need to improve the quality of such studies.

Interfaces e lacunas na assistência prestada ao adolescente soropositivo

O objetivo desta dissertação foi estudar as várias interfaces e possíveis insuficiências no atendimento prestado aos adolescentes que vivem com HIV / AIDS. Assim, a área de pesquisa concentrou-se em algumas unidades de saúde da área do Rio de Janeiro - Programa municipal 2.2. O primeiro capítulo descreve um esboço histórico da formação do Estado moderno e as bases para a política social sustentável do Estado capitalista contemporâneo culminando com a análise da construção de um modelo de proteção social no Brasil, depois dos anos trinta. Desta forma, o Estado é visto como uma área atravessada por paradoxal interesses conflitantes e as políticas sociais, administradas no interior do estado, sendo fruto de processos históricos, econômicos e políticos. No segundo capítulo, os problemas da política de saúde no Brasil são discutidos, enfocando as orientações das políticas sobre a AIDS e a adolescência. Em primeiro lugar, os aspectos históricos sobre as políticas de AIDS são analisados e, em seguida, há uma investigação do conceito de adolescência e os princípios norteadores do Estatuto da Criança e do Adolescente e do Programa Saúde do Adolescente. No terceiro capítulo o material coletado na pesquisa por profissionais de saúde é analisado e relacionado com o estudo documental com a crítica das políticas destinadas. A conclusão mostra que, apesar de todo o progresso clínico e / ou farmacológico para o tratamento de pessoas vivendo com AIDS e na formulação de políticas públicas para garantir os direitos, os adolescentes precisam de espaços de boas-vindas nas relações sociais, onde nem a família, a religião, a escola e seus pares estão preparados para essa proximidade. Outra questão importante é a incapacidade dos profissionais de saúde para lidar com os vários aspectos da doença. Contas de contenção e abuso são comuns, revelando que as unidades de saúde nem sempre desenvolvem o seu potencial para cuidar.

A produção do conhecimento socialmente robusto no contexto da educação e do trabalho: inserção de moradores em comunidades do Rio de Janeiro no mercado de trabalho formal

O presente trabalho tem por objetivo analisar o processo de inserção de pessoas de baixa renda moradoras em comunidades do Rio de Janeiro no mercado de trabalho formal, alunos e egressos dos cursos da Educação Profissional oferecidos no âmbito do Programa SESI Cidadania (PSC), implantado pela Federação das Indústrias do Rio de Janeiro (FIRJAN), em 12 de agosto de 2010, por meio do acordo de cooperação com o Governo do Estado do Rio de Janeiro. O objetivo do programa é levar projetos sociais para as comunidades com Unidade de Polícia Pacificadora (UPP); dentre eles, projetos educacionais com oferta gratuita de cursos na modalidade Qualificação Profissional, respaldada no Decreto n 6.635, de 5 de novembro de 2008. Por conseguinte, este estudo visa a propor iniciativas no sentido de facilitar o ingresso e a permanência dessas pessoas no mercado de trabalho formal e a geração de trabalho e renda. A experiência da autora com processos de inserção de alunos e egressos de cursos da Educação Profissional oferecidos pelo Programa SESI Cidadania sinaliza que as dificuldades enfrentadas por moradores das comunidades do Rio de Janeiro estão relacionadas às condições históricas, sociais, econômicas e culturais. Diante dessa problemática, adotamos a seguinte hipótese: as competências comportamentais, dos moradores das comunidades do Rio de Janeiro interferem na sua inserção no mercado de trabalho formal. Nesse aspecto, o foco de investigação foi verificar as competências observadas pelos profissionais de recursos humanos que interferem na inserção e permanência desses egressos nas empresas. Adotamos o conceito de competências entendido por Joel Souza Dutra (2001) bem como por alguns teóricos da Administração, que o definem como um conjunto de conhecimentos, habilidades e atitudes necessárias para que a pessoa desenvolva suas atribuições e responsabilidades. O recorte empírico se constituiu de dez empresas de pequeno, médio e grande porte sediadas na Região Metropolitana do Rio de Janeiro. A abordagem metodológica incluiu pesquisa de campo com base em dados de entrevistas semiestruturadas, sendo incorporada a técnica de análise de relato verbal. Formulamos um questionário para realização de entrevistas semidirigidas com profissionais de Recursos Humanos e dirigentes de empresas as quais nos permitiram identificar os fatores que interferem na inserção dessas pessoas no mercado de trabalho formal. As conclusões apontam dificuldades de inserção e permanência de moradores das comunidades do Rio de Janeiro no mercado de trabalho formal por aspectos relacionados à formação educacional básica, e sobretudo a competências comportamentais desenvolvidas no contexto sociocultural no qual estão inseridos, as quais se encontram desassociadas das competências comportamentais demandadas pelo mercado de trabalho formal. A relevância da pesquisa consiste na possibilidade de subsidiar a formulação de políticas públicas da Educação e do trabalho destinadas à formação profissional de pessoas de baixa renda moradoras das comunidades do Rio de Janeiro para geração de trabalho e renda.