941 resultados para Forecast of harvest
Resumo:
Residue retention is an important issue in evaluating the sustainability of production forestry. However, its long-term impacts have not been studied extensively, especially in sub-tropical environments. This study investigated the long-term impact of harvest residue retention on tree nutrition, growth and productivity of a F1 hybrid (Pinus elliottii var. elliottii × Pinus caribaea var. hondurensis) exotic pine plantation in sub-tropical Australia, under three harvest residue management regimes: (1) residue removal, RR0; (2) single residue retention, RR1; and (3) double residue retention, RR2. The experiment, established in 1996, is a randomised complete block design with 4 replicates. Tree growth measurements in this study were carried out at ages 2, 4, 6, 8 and 10 years, while foliar nutrient analyses were carried out at ages 2, 4, 6 and 10 years. Litter production and litter nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) measurements were carried out quarterly over a 15-month period between ages 9 and 10 years. Results showed that total tree growth was still greater in residue-retained treatments compared to the RR0 treatment. However, mean annual increments of diameter at breast height (MAID) and basal area (MAIB) declined significantly after age 4 years to about 68-78% at age 10 years. Declining foliar N and P concentrations accounted for 62% (p < 0.05) of the variation of growth rates after age 4 years, and foliar N and P concentrations were either marginal or below critical concentrations. In addition, litter production, and litter N and P contents were not significantly different among the treatments. This study suggests that the impact of residue retention on tree nutrition and growth rates might be limited over a longer period, and that the integration of alternative forest management practices is necessary to sustain the benefits of harvest residues until the end of the rotation.
Resumo:
I t was hypothesized that the freeze/thaw cycles endured by icewine grapes would change their chemical composition, resulting in unique chemical fingerprint and sensory properties, and would be affected by harvest date (HD) and crop level (CL). The objectives were: 1) to identify odour-active compounds using gas chromatographic and sensory analysis; 2) to determine the effect of CL and HD on these compounds; 3) to determine the icewine sensory profiles; 4) to correlate analytical and sensory results for an overall icewine profile. CharmAnalysis™ determined the Top 15 odour-potent compounds in Vidal and Riesling icewine and table wines; 24 and 23 compounds, respectively. The majority of the compounds had the highest concentrations in the icewines compared to table wines. These compounds were used as the foundation for assessing differences in icewine chemical profiles from different HD and CL. Vidal and Riesling icewine were made from grapes picked at different HD; HI : 19 December; H2: 29 December; H3: 18 January; H4: 11 February (Vidal only). HI wines differed from H3 and H4 wines in both Vidal and Riesling for aroma compounds and sensory profiles. - Three·CL [control (fully cropped), cluster thin at fruit set to one basal cluster/shoot (TFS), and cluster thin at veraison to one basal cluster/shoot (TV)] were evaluated for Riesling and Vidal cultivars over two seasons. Vidal icewines had the highest concentration of aroma compounds in the control and TV icewines in 2003 and in TFS icewines in 2004. In Riesling, most aroma compounds had the highest concentration in the TV icewines and the lowest concentration in the TFS wine for both years. The thinned treatments were associated with almost all of the sensory attributes in both cultivars, both years. HD and CL affected the chemical variables, aroma compounds and sensory properties of Vidal and Riesling icewines and freeze/thaw events changed their sensory profile. The most odour-potent compounds were p-damascenone, cis-rose oxide, 1- octen-3-ol, 4-vinylguaiacol, ethyl octanoate, and ethyl hexanoate. The role of Pdamascenone as a marker compound for icewine requires further investigation. This research provides a strong foundation for the understanding the odour-active volatiles and sensory profiles important to icewine.
Resumo:
Short term load forecasting is one of the key inputs to optimize the management of power system. Almost 60-65% of revenue expenditure of a distribution company is against power purchase. Cost of power depends on source of power. Hence any optimization strategy involves optimization in scheduling power from various sources. As the scheduling involves many technical and commercial considerations and constraints, the efficiency in scheduling depends on the accuracy of load forecast. Load forecasting is a topic much visited in research world and a number of papers using different techniques are already presented. The accuracy of forecast for the purpose of merit order dispatch decisions depends on the extent of the permissible variation in generation limits. For a system with low load factor, the peak and the off peak trough are prominent and the forecast should be able to identify these points to more accuracy rather than minimizing the error in the energy content. In this paper an attempt is made to apply Artificial Neural Network (ANN) with supervised learning based approach to make short term load forecasting for a power system with comparatively low load factor. Such power systems are usual in tropical areas with concentrated rainy season for a considerable period of the year
Resumo:
In this paper we focus on the one year ahead prediction of the electricity peak-demand daily trajectory during the winter season in Central England and Wales. We define a Bayesian hierarchical model for predicting the winter trajectories and present results based on the past observed weather. Thanks to the flexibility of the Bayesian approach, we are able to produce the marginal posterior distributions of all the predictands of interest. This is a fundamental progress with respect to the classical methods. The results are encouraging in both skill and representation of uncertainty. Further extensions are straightforward at least in principle. The main two of those consist in conditioning the weather generator model with respect to additional information like the knowledge of the first part of the winter and/or the seasonal weather forecast. Copyright (C) 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Resumo:
A total of 133 samples (53 fermented unprocessed, 19 fermented processed. 62 urea-treated processed) of whole crop wheat (WCW) and 16 samples (five fermented unprocessed, six fermented processed, five urea-treated processed) of whole crop barley (WCB) were collected from commercial farms over two consecutive years (2003/2004 and 2004/2005). Disruption of the maize grains to increase starch availability was achieved at the point of harvest by processors fitted to the forage harvesters. All samples were subjected to laboratory analysis whilst 50 of the samples (24 front Year 1, 26 front Year 2 all WCW except four WCB in Year 2) were subjected to in vivo digestibility and energy value measurements using mature wether sheep. Urea-treated WCW had higher (P<0.05) pH, and dry matter (DM) and crude protein contents and lower concentrations of fermentation products than fermented WCW. Starch was generally lower in fermented, unprocessed WCW and no effect of crop maturity at harvest (as indicated by DM content) on starch concentrations was seen. Urea-treated WCW had higher (P<0.05) in vivo digestible organic matter contents in the DM (DOMD) in Year 1 although this was not recorded in Year 2. There was a close relationship between the digestibility values of organic matter and gross energy thus aiding the use of DOMD to predict metabolisable energy (ME) content. A wide range of ME values was observed (WCW. 8.7-11.8 MJ/kg DM; WCB 7.9-11.2 MJ/kg DM) with the overall ME/DOMD ratio (ME = 0.0156 DOMD) in line With Studies in other forages. There was no evidence that a separate ME/DOMD relationship was needed for WCB which is helpful for practical application. This ratio and other parameters were affected by year of harvest (P<0.05) highlighting the influence of environmental and Other undefined factors. The variability in the composition and nutritive value of WCW and WCB highlights the need for reliable and accurate evaluation methods to be available to assess the Value of these forages before they are included in diets for dairy cows. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
Tuber dormancy enables yams to survive in the ground during the dry season and post-harvest storage. Three clones of Dioscorea rotundata were harvested after five intervals and then stored in a cooler (20.6°C) or at ambient temperature (27.8°C). The time from harvest to sprouting was shorter as harvest was delayed. The period from sowing to sprouting for each clone was similar for tubers harvested from 140 days after planting, but tubers harvested earlier took longer to sprout. The cooler temperature delayed sprouting. Tubers of two clones sprouted after only 70 days of crop growth. If the dormancy period of these young tubers can be broken, the generation time of yam crop improvement programmes could be considerably reduced.