Patchy populations in stochastic environments: Critical number of patches for persistence

We introduce a model for the dynamics of a patchy population in a stochastic environment and derive a criterion for its persistence. This criterion is based on the geometric mean (GM) through time of the spatial-arithmetic mean of growth rates. For the population to persist, the GM has to be greater than or equal to1. The GM increases with the number of patches (because the sampling error is reduced) and decreases with both the variance and the spatial covariance of growth rates. We derive analytical expressions for the minimum number of patches (and the maximum harvesting rate) required for the persistence of the population. As the magnitude of environmental fluctuations increases, the number of patches required for persistence increases, and the fraction of individuals that can be harvested decreases. The novelty of our approach is that we focus on Malthusian local population dynamics with high dispersal and strong environmental variability from year to year. Unlike previous models of patchy populations that assume an infinite number of patches, we focus specifically on the effect that the number of patches has on population persistence. Our work is therefore directly relevant to patchily distributed organisms that are restricted to a small number of habitat patches.

Adaptation to larval malnutrition does not affect fluctuating asymmetry in Drosophila melanogaster

Both stress during development and response to directional selection were proposed to lead to reduced developmental stability of an organism, commonly measured as fluctuating asymmetry. Here, we investigated the direct physiological (plastic) effect of larval malnutrition and the effect of evolutionary adaptation to this form of stress on developmental stability, measured as fluctuating asymmetry of several wing measurements. The measurements were made on female Drosophila melanogaster from populations which, in the course of 84 generations of experimental evolution, adapted to malnutrition and from non-adapted controls, raised either under standard conditions or under nutritional stress. We detected no changes in the levels of fluctuating asymmetry as either a plastic or an evolutionary response. Thus, neither nutritional stress within lifetime nor directional selection it imposes seems to affect developmental stability in flies.

Substitution rates at neutral genes depend on population size under fluctuating demography and overlapping generations.

It is widely accepted that the rate of evolution (substitution rate) at neutral genes is unaffected by population size fluctuations. This result has implications for the analysis of genetic data in population genetics and phylogenetics, and provides, in particular, a justification for the concept of the molecular clock. Here, we show that the substitution rate at neutral genes does depend on population size fluctuations in the presence of overlapping generations. As both population size fluctuations and overlapping generations are expected to be the norm rather than the exception in natural populations, this observation may be relevant for understanding variation in substitution rates within and between lineages.

Morphometric analysis of Triatoma dimidiata populations (Reduviidae:Triatominae) from Mexico and Northern Guatemala

Triatoma dimidiata is one of the major vectors of Chagas disease in Latin America. Its range includes Mexico, all countries of Central America, Colombia, and Ecuador. In light of recent genetic analysis suggesting that the possible origin of this species is the Yucatan peninsula, we have analyzed populations from the state of Yucatan, San Luis Potosi, and Veracruz in Mexico, and a population from the southern region of the Yucatan peninsula located in Northern Guatemala, the region of El Peten. Classical morphometry including principal component, discriminant, sexual dimorphism, and wing asymmetry was analyzed. San Luis Potosi and Veracruz populations were indistinguishable while clearly separate from Yucatan and Peten populations. Despite important genetic differences, Yucatan and Peten populations were highly similar. Yucatan specimens were the smallest in size, while females were larger than males in all populations. Only head characters were necessary to distinguish population level differences, although wing fluctuating asymmetry was present in all populations. These results are discussed in light of recent findings suggesting genetic polymorphism in most populations of Triatoma dimidiata south of Chiapas to Ecuador.

Possible influence of the ENSO phenomenon on the pathoecology of diphyllobothriasis and anisakiasis in ancient Chinchorro populations

Current clinical data show a clear relationship between the zoonosis rates of Diphyllobothrium pacificum and Anisakis caused by the El Niño Southern Oscillations (ENSO) phenomenon along the Chilean coast. These parasites are endemic to the region and have a specific habitat distribution. D. pacificum prefers the warmer waters in the northern coast, while Anisakis prefers the colder waters of Southern Chile. The ENSO phenomenon causes a drastic inversion in the seawater temperatures in this region, modifying both the cool nutrient-rich seawater and the local ecology. This causes a latitudinal shift in marine parasite distribution and prevalence, as well as drastic environmental changes. The abundance of human mummies and archaeological coastal sites in the Atacama Desert provides an excellent model to test the ENSO impact on antiquity. We review the clinical and archaeological literature debating to what extent these parasites affected the health of the Chinchorros, the earliest settlers of this region. We hypothesise the Chinchorro and their descendants were affected by this natural and cyclical ENSO phenomenon and should therefore present fluctuating rates of D. pacificum and Anisakis infestations.

Constant fluctuating asymmetry but not directional asymmetry along the geographic distribution of Drosophila antonietae (Diptera, Drosophilidae)

ABSTRACT The population dynamics of a species tends to change from the core to the periphery of its distribution. Therefore, one could expect peripheral populations to be subject to a higher level of stress than more central populations (the center–periphery hypothesis) and consequently should present a higher level of fluctuating asymmetry. To test these predictions we study asymmetry in wing shape of five populations of Drosophila antonietae collected throughout the distribution of the species using fluctuating asymmetry as a proxy for developmental instability. More specifically, we addressed the following questions: (1) what types of asymmetry occur in populations of D. antonietae? (2) Does the level of fluctuating asymmetry vary among populations? (3) Does peripheral populations have a higher fluctuating asymmetry level than central populations? We used 12 anatomical landmarks to quantify patterns of asymmetry in wing shape in five populations of D. antonietae within the framework of geometric morphometrics. Net asymmetry – a composite measure of directional asymmetry + fluctuating asymmetry – varied significantly among populations. However, once net asymmetry of each population is decomposed into directional asymmetry and fluctuating asymmetry, most of the variation in asymmetry was explained by directional asymmetry alone, suggesting that populations of D. antonietae have the same magnitude of fluctuating asymmetry throughout the geographical distribution of the species. We hypothesize that larval development in rotting cladodes might play an important role in explaining our results. In addition, our study underscores the importance of understanding the interplay between the biology of a species and its geographical patterns of asymmetry.

Sperm velocity in an Alpine whitefish: effects of age, size, condition, fluctuating asymmetry and gonad abnormalities

The relationship between sperm velocity and individual age, size, body condition and fluctuating asymmetry was investigated in Alpine whitefish Coregonus fatioi. The fish analysed belonged to one among several sympatric whitefish populations of Lake Thun, Switzerland, which are characterized by a high prevalence of gonad alterations. Therefore, sperm velocity data were also tested for a link between gonad deformation and sperm swimming speed. Sperm velocity was significantly lower in larger-grown individuals and in individuals of higher body condition. As expected, sperm velocity was higher in males with higher levels of fluctuating asymmetry, but it did not significantly vary with male age. Moreover, variation in sperm velocity was found to be significantly higher in individuals showing some types of gonad alterations but it did not significantly correlate with the presence of other types of alterations. (C) 2007 The Authors Journal compilation (C) 2007 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Variation in thermal performance and reaction norms among populations of Drosophila melanogaster.

The major goal of evolutionary thermal biology is to understand how variation in temperature shapes phenotypic evolution. Comparing thermal reaction norms among populations from different thermal environments allows us to gain insights into the evolutionary mechanisms underlying thermal adaptation. Here, we have examined thermal adaptation in six wild populations of the fruit fly (Drosophila melanogaster) from markedly different natural environments by analyzing thermal reaction norms for fecundity, thorax length, wing area, and ovariole number under ecologically realistic fluctuating temperature regimes in the laboratory. Contrary to expectation, we found only minor differences in the thermal optima for fecundity among populations. Differentiation among populations was mainly due to differences in absolute (and partly also relative) thermal fecundity performance. Despite significant variation among populations in the absolute values of morphological traits, we observed only minor differentiation in their reaction norms. Overall, the thermal reaction norms for all traits examined were remarkably similar among different populations. Our results therefore suggest that thermal adaptation in D. melanogaster predominantly involves evolutionary changes in absolute trait values rather than in aspects of thermal reaction norms.

Theoretical Dynamics of Experimental Populations of Introduced and Native Blowflies (Diptera: Calliphoridae)

Equilibrium dynamics in experimental populations of Chrysomya megacephala (F.) and C. putoria (Wiedemann), which have recently invaded the Americas, and the native species Cochliomyia macellaria (F.), were investigated using nonlinear difference equations. A theoretical analysis of the mathematical model using bifurcation theory established the combination of demographic parameters responsible for producing shifts in blowfly population dynamics from stable equilibria to bounded cycles and aperiodic behavior. Mathematical modeling shows that the populations of the 2 introduced Chrysomya species will form stable oscillations with numbers fluctuating 3-4 times in successive generations. However, in the native species C. macellaria, the dynamics is characterized by damping oscillations in population size, leading to a stable population level.

Climatic regulation of seed dormancy and emergence of diverse Malva parviflora populations from a Mediterranean-type environment

Malva parviflora L. (Malvaceae) is rapidly becoming a serious weed of Australian farming systems. An understanding of the variability of its seed behaviour is required to enable the development of integrated weed management strategies. Mature M. parviflora seeds were collected from four diverse locations in the Mediterranean-type climatic agricultural region of Western Australia. All of the seeds exhibited physical dormancy at collection; manual scarification or a period of fluctuating summer temperatures (50/20 degrees C or natural) were required to release dormancy. When scarified and germinated soon (1 month) after collection, the majority of seeds were able to germinate over a wide range of temperatures (5-37 degrees C) and had no light requirement. Germination was slower for seeds stored for 2 months than seeds stored for 2 years, suggesting the presence of shallow physiological dormancy. Seed populations from regions with similar annual rainfall exhibited similar dormancy release patterns; seeds from areas of low rainfall (337-344mm) were more responsive to fluctuating temperatures, releasing physical dormancy earlier than those from areas of high rainfall (436-444mm). After 36 months, maximum seedling emergence from soil in the field was 60%, with buried seeds producing 13-34% greater emergence than seeds on the surface. Scanning electron microscopy of the seed coat revealed structural differences in the chalazal region of permeable and impermeable seeds, suggesting the importance of this region in physical dormancy breakdown of M. parviflora seeds. The influence of rainfall during plant growth in determining dormancy release, and hence, germination and emergence timing, must be considered when developing management strategies for M. parviflora.

Disturbance regime and limits on benefits of refuge use for fishes in a fluctuating hydroscape

Refuge habitats increase survival rate and recovery time of populations experiencing environmental disturbance, but limits on the ability of refuges to buffer communities are poorly understood. We hypothesized that importance of refuges in preventing population declines and alteration in community structure has a non-linear relationship with severity of disturbance. In the Florida Everglades, alligator ponds are used as refuge habitat by fishes during seasonal drying of marsh habitats. Using an 11-year record of hydrological conditions and fish abundance in 10 marshes and 34 alligator ponds from two regions of the Everglades, we sought to characterize patterns of refuge use and temporal dynamics of fish abundance and community structure across changing intensity, duration, and frequency of drought disturbance. Abundance in alligator ponds was positively related to refuge size, distance from alternative refugia (e.g. canals), and abundance in surrounding marsh prior to hydrologic disturbance. Variables negatively related to abundance in alligator ponds included water level in surrounding marsh and abundance of disturbance-tolerant species. Refuge community structure did not differ between regions because the same subset of species in both regions used alligator ponds during droughts. When time between disturbances was short, fish abundance declined in marshes, and in the region with the most spatially extensive pattern of disturbance, community structure was altered in both marshes and alligator ponds because of an increased proportion of species more resistant to disturbance. These changes in community structure were associated with increases in both duration and frequency of hydrologic disturbance. Use of refuge habitat had a modal relationship with severity of disturbance regime. Spatial patterns of response suggest that decline in refuge use was because of decreased effectiveness of refuge habitat in reducing mortality and providing sufficient time for recovery for fish communities experiencing reduced time between disturbance events.

Exploring Iris Colour Prediction And Ancestry Inference In Admixed Populations Of South America.

New DNA-based predictive tests for physical characteristics and inference of ancestry are highly informative tools that are being increasingly used in forensic genetic analysis. Two eye colour prediction models: a Bayesian classifier - Snipper and a multinomial logistic regression (MLR) system for the Irisplex assay, have been described for the analysis of unadmixed European populations. Since multiple SNPs in combination contribute in varying degrees to eye colour predictability in Europeans, it is likely that these predictive tests will perform in different ways amongst admixed populations that have European co-ancestry, compared to unadmixed Europeans. In this study we examined 99 individuals from two admixed South American populations comparing eye colour versus ancestry in order to reveal a direct correlation of light eye colour phenotypes with European co-ancestry in admixed individuals. Additionally, eye colour prediction following six prediction models, using varying numbers of SNPs and based on Snipper and MLR, were applied to the study populations. Furthermore, patterns of eye colour prediction have been inferred for a set of publicly available admixed and globally distributed populations from the HGDP-CEPH panel and 1000 Genomes databases with a special emphasis on admixed American populations similar to those of the study samples.

Distribution Of Lutzomyia Longipalpis Chemotype Populations In São Paulo State, Brazil.

American visceral leishmaniasis (AVL) is an emerging disease in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. Its geographical expansion and the increase in the number of human cases has been linked to dispersion of Lutzomyia longipalpis into urban areas. To produce more accurate risk maps we investigated the geographic distribution and routes of expansion of the disease as well as chemotype populations of the vector. A database, containing the annual records of municipalities which had notified human and canine AVL cases as well as the presence of the vector, was compiled. The chemotypes of L. longipalpis populations from municipalities in different regions of São Paulo State were determined by Coupled Gas Chromatography - Mass Spectrometry. From 1997 to June 2014, L. longipalpis has been reported in 166 municipalities, 148 of them in the Western region. A total of 106 municipalities were identified with transmission and 99 were located in the Western region, where all 2,204 autochthonous human cases occurred. Both the vector and the occurrence of human cases have expanded in a South-easterly direction, from the Western to central region, and from there, a further expansion to the North and the South. The (S)-9-methylgermacrene-B population of L. longipalpis is widely distributed in the Western region and the cembrene-1 population is restricted to the Eastern region. The maps in the present study show that there are two distinct epidemiological patterns of AVL in São Paulo State and that the expansion of human and canine AVL cases through the Western region has followed the same dispersion route of only one of the two species of the L. longipalpis complex, (S)-9-methylgermacrene-B. Entomological vigilance based on the routes of dispersion and identification of the chemotype population could be used to identify at-risk areas and consequently define the priorities for control measures.

Is size structure a good measure of future trends of plant populations? an empirical approach using five woody species from the Cerrado (Brazilian savanna)

Size distributions in woody plant populations have been used to assess their regeneration status, assuming that size structures with reverse-J shapes represent stable populations. We present an empirical approach of this issue using five woody species from the Cerrado. Considering count data for all plants of these five species over a 12-year period, we analyzed size distribution by: a) plotting frequency distributions and their adjustment to the negative exponential curve and b) calculating the Gini coefficient. To look for a relationship between size structure and future trends, we considered the size structures from the first census year. We analyzed changes in number over time and performed a simple population viability analysis, which gives the mean population growth rate, its variance and the probability of extinction in a given time period. Frequency distributions and the Gini coefficient were not able to predict future trends in population numbers. We recommend that managers should not use measures of size structure as a basis for management decisions without applying more appropriate demographic studies.

Should reproductively isolated populations of Lutzomyia longipalpis sensu lato receive taxonomically valid names?

A group of 18 research workers involved in different aspects of the biology of Lutzomyia longipalpis discussed whether or not it is important to give taxonomically valid names to populations that have been defined by biological, biochemical and molecular methods to be reproductively isolated. The type material of this medically important species has been lost and because of this it was recommended that a colony should be established from insects captured in the region of the type area and that their description should serve as the basis for future descriptions. It was pointed out that there is a lack of uniformity in the naming of closely related American sand flies and that some of the differences between populations of Lu. longipalpis are greater than those between accepted species. The majority of the participants agreed that the populations that have been defined in the literature as sibling species should be named.