空间直观景观模型LANDIS的灵敏度分析

灵敏度分析是模型验证过程中十分重要的一步，通过将模型中灵敏度高的参数与灵敏度低的参数加以区分，在调整模型参数时只需调整那些对改变模型结果有显著作用的参数，从而能够减轻模型校正过程中的工作量。首先借助于地理信息系统技术和遥感技术，综合林相图、TM影像数据以及林业调查数据库，在大兴安岭呼中林业局为LANDIS模型进行初步建模。在对模型的结构及特点进行分析的基础上，对模型从输入参数的两个部分一空间数据和非空间数据的灵敏度分别展开分析。对空间数据进行灵敏度分析的结果表明，输入图形文件的分辨率对LAND工S模型的模拟结果有显著影响；对非空间数据中几个与树种生活史特征以及千扰特征相关的参数进行灵敏度分析的结果表明，树种寿命、种子有效传播距离以及火干扰概率系数和火干扰面积系数都是较为敏感的参数，而种子最大传播距离及成熟年龄在其不确定性范围内是不敏感的参数。

空间直观景观模型LANDISⅠ.运行机制

空间直观景观模型是指在异质景观中模拟景观尺度上生态过程的空间直观模型 .LANDIS是一个用于模拟森林景观干扰、演替和管理的空间直观景观模型 .通过在样地尺度上跟踪以 10年为间隔的物种年龄级 ,半定量化地描述火和风倒 ,及使用位数组表示物种年龄结构 ,LANDIS能同时在物种、样地和景观尺度上模拟各种生态过程及其相互关系 .详细论述了LANDIS模型对种子传播、火、风倒和砍伐等生态过程的模拟 ,并讨论了模型中存在的一些不足 .

空间直观景观模型LANDIS在大兴安岭呼中林区的应用

应用空间直观景观模型 (L ANDIS) ,研究有采伐和无采伐预案下大兴安岭呼中林区的森林景观的长期变化。用 APACK计算每一个物种及各年龄级的分布面积。为了研究物种分布格局的变化 ,计算了物种分布的聚集度指数。研究结果如下 :(1)在无采伐预案下 ,火干扰模式为低频率大面积高强度火烧 ;在有采伐预下 ,火干扰模式为高频率小面积低强度火烧 ;(2 )在无采伐预案下 ,火会造成各种群分布面积的强烈波动 ,但是对种群的年龄结构没有很大影响 ;在有采伐预案下 ,火对种群分布面积和年龄结构都没有很大的影响 ;(3)采伐能完全改变各种群的年龄结构 ,降低种群分布的聚集度 ,但是对各种群的分布面积并没有很大影响 ;(4 )在有采伐预案下 ,各种群为增长型种群 ,增长量通过采伐取走 ,群落处于演替的干扰顶极状态 ;在无采伐预案下 ,各种群为稳定型种群 (樟子松和偃松除外 ) ,大面积高强度火烧使群落产生较大的波动。结果表明 ,在呼中林业局 ,在没有人为干扰情况下 ,火干扰是森林景观变化的主导因素。自从有了人为干扰 ,采伐开始逐渐取代火干扰成为影响森林景观变化的主导因素。空间直观景观模型的一个挑战是模型的验证。由于缺乏详细的空间数据及模型模拟中的随机性 ,很难通过模型模拟结果与实地调查或遥感数据的比较进行

Floyd-Hoare Verifiers "Considered Harmful"

The Floyd-Hoare methodology completely dominates the field of program verification and has contributed much to our understanding of how programs might be analyzed. Useful but limited verifiers have been developed using Floyd-Hoare techniques. However, it has long been known that it is difficult to handle side effects on shared data structures within the Floyd-Hoare framework. Most examples of successful Floyd-Hoare axioms for assignment to complex data structures, similar statements have been used by London. This paper demonstrates an error in these formalizations and suggests a different style of verification.

Ecosystem impacts of three sequential hurricanes (Dennis, Floyd, and Irene) on the United States' largest lagoonal estuary, Pamlico Sound, NC

Three sequential hurricanes, Dennis, Floyd, and Irene, affected coastal North Carolina in September and October 1999. These hurricanes inundated the region with up to 1 m of rainfall, causing 50- to 500-year flooding in the watershed of the Pamlico Sound, the largest lagoonal estuary in the United States and a key West Atlantic fisheries nursery. We investigated the ecosystem-level impacts on and responses of the Sound to the floodwater discharge. Floodwaters displaced three-fourths of the volume of the Sound, depressed salinity by a similar amount, and delivered at least half of the typical annual nitrogen load to this nitrogen-sensitive ecosystem. Organic carbon concentrations in floodwaters entering Pamlico Sound via a major tributary (the Neuse River Estuary) were at least 2-fold higher than concentrations under prefloodwater conditions. A cascading set of physical, chemical, and ecological impacts followed, including strong vertical stratification, bottom water hypoxia, a sustained increase in algal biomass, displacement of many marine organisms, and a rise in fish disease. Because of the Sound's long residence time (≈1 year), we hypothesize that the effects of the short-term nutrient enrichment could prove to be multiannual. A predicted increase in the frequency of hurricane activity over the next few decades may cause longer-term biogeochemical and trophic changes in this and other estuarine and coastal habitats.