A new approach for computing a flood vulnerability index using cluster analysis

A Flood Vulnerability Index (FloodVI) was developed using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and a new aggregation method based on Cluster Analysis (CA). PCA simplifies a large number of variables into a few uncorrelated factors representing the social, economic, physical and environmental dimensions of vulnerability. CA groups areas that have the same characteristics in terms of vulnerability into vulnerability classes. The grouping of the areas determines their classification contrary to other aggregation methods in which the areas' classification determines their grouping. While other aggregation methods distribute the areas into classes, in an artificial manner, by imposing a certain probability for an area to belong to a certain class, as determined by the assumption that the aggregation measure used is normally distributed, CA does not constrain the distribution of the areas by the classes. FloodVI was designed at the neighbourhood level and was applied to the Portuguese municipality of Vila Nova de Gaia where several flood events have taken place in the recent past. The FloodVI sensitivity was assessed using three different aggregation methods: the sum of component scores, the first component score and the weighted sum of component scores. The results highlight the sensitivity of the FloodVI to different aggregation methods. Both sum of component scores and weighted sum of component scores have shown similar results. The first component score aggregation method classifies almost all areas as having medium vulnerability and finally the results obtained using the CA show a distinct differentiation of the vulnerability where hot spots can be clearly identified. The information provided by records of previous flood events corroborate the results obtained with CA, because the inundated areas with greater damages are those that are identified as high and very high vulnerability areas by CA. This supports the fact that CA provides a reliable FloodVI.

Report of the seminar on the results of the social vulnerability index

The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC); Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean and secretariat of the Caribbean Development and Cooperation Committee (CDCC); has been involved for the past three years in the execution of a project NET/00/035: Development of the Social Statistical Databases and a methodological approach for a Social Vulnerability Index (SVI); funded by the Government of the Kingdom of the Netherlands. The project had been conceptualized to produce two outputs, one a social statistical database, and the other, the development of a methodological approach for an SVI. The project was in response to the articulated needs of governments in the subregion, specifically, and the wider international body of policy makers, in general, for greater availability and a better quality of social statistical data and indicators to measure the vulnerability of small States.

Coastal flood vulnerability assessment with geomatic methods: Test sites of western Thailand, Sydney (Australia) and aeolian islands (south tyrrhenian sea, Italy)

The work undertaken in this PhD thesis is aimed at the development and testing of an innovative methodology for the assessment of the vulnerability of coastal areas to marine catastrophic inundation (tsunami). Different approaches are used at different spatial scales and are applied to three different study areas: 1. The entire western coast of Thailand 2. Two selected coastal suburbs of Sydney – Australia 3. The Aeolian Islands, in the South Tyrrhenian Sea – Italy I have discussed each of these cases study in at least one scientific paper: one paper about the Thailand case study (Dall’Osso et al., in review-b), three papers about the Sydney applications (Dall’Osso et al., 2009a; Dall’Osso et al., 2009b; Dall’Osso and Dominey-Howes, in review) and one last paper about the work at the Aeolian Islands (Dall’Osso et al., in review-a). These publications represent the core of the present PhD thesis. The main topics dealt with are outlined and discussed in a general introduction while the overall conclusions are outlined in the last section.

Development and testing of the Elderly Social Vulnerability Index (ESVI): A composite indicator to measure social vulnerability in the Jamaican elderly population

Over the last two decades social vulnerability has emerged as a major area of study, with increasing attention to the study of vulnerable populations. Generally, the elderly are among the most vulnerable members of any society, and widespread population aging has led to greater focus on elderly vulnerability. However, the absence of a valid and practical measure constrains the ability of policy-makers to address this issue in a comprehensive way. This study developed a composite indicator, The Elderly Social Vulnerability Index (ESVI), and used it to undertake a comparative analysis of the availability of support for elderly Jamaicans based on their access to human, material and social resources. The results of the ESVI indicated that while the elderly are more vulnerable overall, certain segments of the population appear to be at greater risk. Females had consistently lower scores than males, and the oldest-old had the highest scores of all groups of older persons. Vulnerability scores also varied according to place of residence, with more rural parishes having higher scores than their urban counterparts. These findings support the political economy framework which locates disadvantage in old age within political and ideological structures. The findings also point to the pervasiveness and persistence of gender inequality as argued by feminist theories of aging. Based on the results of the study it is clear that there is a need for policies that target specific population segments, in addition to universal policies that could make the experience of old age less challenging for the majority of older persons. Overall, the ESVI has displayed usefulness as a tool for theoretical analysis and demonstrated its potential as a policy instrument to assist decision-makers in determining where to target their efforts as they seek to address the issue of social vulnerability in old age. Data for this study came from the 2001 population and housing census of Jamaica, with multiple imputation for missing data. The index was derived from the linear aggregation of three equally weighted domains, comprised of eleven unweighted indicators which were normalized using z-scores. Indicators were selected based on theoretical relevance and data availability.

Development and Testing of the Elderly Social Vulnerability Index (ESVI): A Composite Indicator to Measure Social Vulnerability in the Jamaican Elderly Population

Over the last two decades social vulnerability has emerged as a major area of study, with increasing attention to the study of vulnerable populations. Generally, the elderly are among the most vulnerable members of any society, and widespread population aging has led to greater focus on elderly vulnerability. However, the absence of a valid and practical measure constrains the ability of policy-makers to address this issue in a comprehensive way. This study developed a composite indicator, The Elderly Social Vulnerability Index (ESVI), and used it to undertake a comparative analysis of the availability of support for elderly Jamaicans based on their access to human, material and social resources. The results of the ESVI indicated that while the elderly are more vulnerable overall, certain segments of the population appear to be at greater risk. Females had consistently lower scores than males, and the oldest-old had the highest scores of all groups of older persons. Vulnerability scores also varied according to place of residence, with more rural parishes having higher scores than their urban counterparts. These findings support the political economy framework which locates disadvantage in old age within political and ideological structures. The findings also point to the pervasiveness and persistence of gender inequality as argued by feminist theories of aging. Based on the results of the study it is clear that there is a need for policies that target specific population segments, in addition to universal policies that could make the experience of old age less challenging for the majority of older persons. Overall, the ESVI has displayed usefulness as a tool for theoretical analysis and demonstrated its potential as a policy instrument to assist decision-makers in determining where to target their efforts as they seek to address the issue of social vulnerability in old age. Data for this study came from the 2001 population and housing census of Jamaica, with multiple imputation for missing data. The index was derived from the linear aggregation of three equally weighted domains, comprised of eleven unweighted indicators which were normalized using z-scores. Indicators were selected based on theoretical relevance and data availability.

Climate change vulnerability profiles for North East India

Climate change vulnerability profiles are developed at the district level for agriculture, water and forest sectors for the North East region of India for the current and projected future climates. An index-based approach was used where a set of indicators that represent key sectors of vulnerability (agriculture, forest, water) is selected using the statistical technique principal component analysis. The impacts of climate change on key sectors as represented by the changes in the indicators were derived from impact assessment models. These impacted indicators were utilized for the calculation of the future vulnerability to climate change. Results indicate that majority of the districts in North East India are subject to climate induced vulnerability currently and in the near future. This is a first of its kind study that exhibits ranking of districts of North East India on the basis of the vulnerability index values. The objective of such ranking is to assist in: (i) identifying and prioritizing the most vulnerable sectors and districts; (ii) identifying adaptation interventions, and (iii) mainstreaming adaptation in development programmes.

Farmers' vulnerability to climate variability in Dimapur district of Nagaland, India

Certain parts of the State of Nagaland situated in the northeastern region of India have been experiencing rainfall deficit over the past few years leading to severe drought-like conditions, which is likely to be aggravated under a climate change scenario. The state has already incurred considerable losses in the agricultural sector. Regional vulnerability assessments need to be carried out in order to help policy makers and planners formulate and implement effective drought management strategies. The present study uses an 'index-based approach' to quantify the climate variability-induced vulnerability of farmers in five villages of Dimapur district, Nagaland. Indicators, which are reflective of the exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity of the farmers to drought, were quantified on the basis of primary data generated through household surveys and participatory rural appraisal supplemented by secondary data in order to calculate a composite vulnerability index. The composite vulnerability index of village New Showba was found to be the least, while Zutovi, the highest. The overall results reveal that biophysical characteristics contribute the most to overall vulnerability. Some potential adaptation strategies were also identified based on observations and discussions with the villagers.

Assessing ``inherent vulnerability'' of forests: a methodological approach and a case study from Western Ghats, India

The objective of this study is to present a methodological approach to assess the inherent vulnerability of forests and apply it to a case study. Addressing inherent vulnerability, resulting from current stresses, is a necessary step for building resilience to long-term climate change. The proposed approach includes use of analytical framework that enables selection of vulnerability criteria and indicators systematically, application of pairwise comparison method (PCM) for assigning weights, and synthesis of a composite vulnerability index. This methodological approach has been applied at local scale to Aduvalli Protected Forest in Western Ghats in South India, where a vulnerability index value of 0.248 is estimated. Results of the case study indicate that `preponderance of invasive species' and forest dependence of community are the major sources of vulnerability at present for Aduvalli Protected Forest. Adoption of this methodology can assist in development of forest management plans to enhance adaptability of Aduvalli PF to current as well as future stresses, including climate change. This methodological approach can be applied across forest-types after appropriate changes to criteria and indicators and their weights, to estimate the inherent vulnerability to enable development of adaptation strategy.

Assessment of the settlement vulnerability of masonry buildings

Excavation works in urban areas require a preliminary risk damage assessment. In historical cities, the prediction of building response to settlements is necessary to reduce the risk of damage of the architectural heritage. The current method used to predict the building damage due to ground deformations is the Limiting Tensile Strain Method (LTSM). In this approach the building is modelled as an elastic beam subjected to imposed Greenfield settlements and the induced tensile strains are compared with a limit value for the material. These assumptions can lead to a non realistic evaluation of the damage. In this paper, the possibility to apply a settlement risk assessment derived from the seismic vulnerability approach is considered. The parameters that influence the structural response to settlements can be defined through numerical analyses which take into account the nonlinear behaviour of masonry and the soil-structure interaction. The effects of factors like material quality, geometry of the structure, amount of openings, type of foundation or the actual state of preservation can be included in a global vulnerability index, which should indicate the building susceptibility to damage by differential settlements of a given magnitude. Vulnerability curves will represent the expected damage of each vulnerability class of building as a function of the settlement.

Community Vulnerability to Malaria in Madre de Dios, Peru

Construction of a highway and artisanal gold mining have contributed to population and land use changes within the department of Madre de Dios, Peru. Such changes are expected to alter malaria rates due to impacts on vector habitat and human exposure. Vulnerability, as defined by the possibility of bereavement of a physical good or abstract state, is useful for understanding which communities are most likely to be adversely impacted by hazards such as malaria. A model defining susceptibility (SUS) and lack of resilience (LOR) was used to create an index of vulnerability to malaria for 40 communities in Madre de Dios. Indicators of SUS and LOR were developed from household and community data and combined into a final vulnerability index score. Vulnerability scores ranged between 0.13 and 0.31 with a mean of 0.21. Communities were grouped according to standard deviations from the mean. The most vulnerable communities (>1.5 standard deviations from mean) were located in the southern portion of the study area. When the dimension scores were compared for all communities, scores were generally higher in the susceptibility dimension than in the lack of resilience dimension. Examination of the indicator scores of individual communities revealed that drivers of vulnerability vary across the department. Therefore, targeted interventions addressing specific aspects of vulnerability may be useful. Finally, a predicted vulnerability surface was created for a 10 km buffer surrounding the Interoceanic Highway in Madre de Dios.