Exchange rate: fix, float, or manage it?

The Exchange Rate is the Most Strategic of the Four Macroeconomic Prices. it Determines not Only Exports and Imports, But Also Real Wages, Consumption and the Savings Rate. Conventional Theory Holds That it is Impossible to Manage It, and That the Only Alternatives are to Fix or to Float It. the Experience of the East Asian Countries, That Use it Strategically, Demonstrates That This Claim is False.

Investigation of exchange of energy between zeeman and dipolar reservoirs in the rotating frame in solids

Exchange of energy between Zeeman and dipolar reservoirs in the rotating frame during spin-lock has important implications for the understanding of the Hartmann-Hahn cross polarisation process and is examined here with experiments on ammonium dihydrogen phosphate. It is observed that energy exchange between the two reservoirs takes place indicating that the relative magnitude of the dipolar coupling in relation to the applied r.f. field may have a role to play in determining the rate of exchange of energy between the two reservoirs.

The trasition from fixed to floating exchange rate regimes: the case of Brazil

This dissertation evaluates macroeconomic management in Brazil from 1994 to the present, with particular focus on exchange rate policy. It points out that while Brazil's Real Plan succeeded in halting the hyperinflation that had reached more than 2000 percent in 1993, it also caused significant real appreciation of the exchange rate situation that was only made worse by the extremely high interest rates and ensuing bout of severe financial crises in the intemational arena. By the end of 1998, the accumulation of internai and externai imbalances led the authorities to drop foreign exchange controls and allow the currency to float. In spite of some initial scepticism, the flexible rate regime cum inflation target proved to work well. Inflation was kept under control; the current account position improved significantly, real interest rates fell and GDP growth resumed. Thus, while great challenges still lie ahead, the recent successes bestow some optimism on the well functioning of this exchange rate regime. The Brazilian case suggests that successful transition from one foreign exchange system to another, particularly during financial crisis, does not depend only on one variable be it fiscal or monetary. In reality, it depends on whole set of co-ordinated policies aimed at resuming price stability with as little exchange rate and output volatility as possible.

An evaluation of exchange rate policy and economic adjustment in Nicaragua, 1993--1995

Since the late 1970's, but particularly since the mid-1980s, the economy of Nicaragua has had persistent and large macroeconomic imbalances, while GDP per-capita has declined to 1950s' levels. By the second half of the 1990s, huge fiscal deficits and a reduction of foreign financing resulted in record hyperinflation. The Sandinista government's (1979–1990) harsh stabilization program in 1988–89 had only modest and short-lived success. It was doomed by their inability to lower the public sector deficit due to the war, plus diminishing financial support from abroad. Hyperinflation stopped only after their 1990 electoral defeat ended the war and massive aid began to flow in. Five years later, macroeconomic stability is still very fragile. A sluggish recovery of export agriculture plus import liberalization, have impeded a reduction of huge trade and current account deficits. Facing the prospects of diminished aid flows, the government's strategy has hinged on the achievement of a real devaluation through a crawling-peg adjustment of the nominal rate. However, at the end of 1995 the situation of the external accounts was still critical, and the modest progress achieved was attributable to cyclical terms-of-trade improvement and changes in the political outlook of agricultural producers. Using a Computable General Equilibrium Model and a Social Accounting Matrix constructed for this dissertation, the importance of structural rigidities in production and demand in explaining such outcome is shown. It is shown that under the plausible structural assumptions incorporated in the model, the role of devaluation in the adjustment process is restricted by structural rigidities. Moreover, contrary to the premise of the orthodox economic thinking behind the economic program, it is the contractionary effect of devaluation more than its expenditure-switching effects that provide the basis for is use in solving the external sector's problems. A fixed nominal exchange rate is found to lead to adverse results. The broader conclusion that emerges from the study is that a new social compact and a rapid increase in infrastructure spending plus fiscal support for the traditional agro-export activities is at the center of a successful adjustment towards external viability in Nicaragua. ^

The impacts of exchange rate volatility on vegetable trade flows

Trade flows of commodities are generally affected by the principles of comparative advantage in a free trade. However, trade flows might be enhanced or distorted not only by various government interventions, but also by exchange rate fluctuations among others. This study applies a commodity-specific gravity model to selected vegetable trade flows among Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries to determine the effects of exchange rate uncertainty on the trade flows. Using the data from 1996 to 2002, the results show that, while the exchange rate uncertainty significantly reduces trade in the majority of commodity flows, there is evidence that both short- and long-term volatility have positive effect on trade flows of specific commodities. This study also tests the regional preferential trade agreements such as the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) and the EU, and their different effects on commodities.

Trade effects of exchange rate fluctuations: Evidence from Sweden

An overview of the theoretical literature for the last two decades suggests that there is no clear-cut relationship one can pin down between exchange rate volatility and trade flows. Analytical results are based on specific assumptions and only hold in certain cases. Especially, the impact of exchange rate volatility on export and import activity investigated separately leads also to dissimilar conclusions among countries studied. The general presumption is that an increase in exchange rate volatility will have an adverse effect on trade flows and consequently, the overall heath of the world economy. However, neither theoretical models nor empirical studies provide us with a definitive answer, leaving obtained results highly ambiguous and inconsistent (Baum and Caglayan, 2006). We purposed to empirically investigate trade effects of exchange rate fluctuations in Sweden from the perspective of export and import in this research. The data comprises period from January 1993 to December 2006, where export and import volumes are considered from the point of their determinants, including exchange rate volatility, which has been measured through EGARCH model. The results for the case of Sweden show that short run dynamics of volatility negatively associated with both export and import, whereas considered from the case of previous period volatility it exhibits positive relationship. These results are consistent with the most findings of prior studies, where the relationship remained ambiguous.

The political economy of exchange rate in Brazil

This paper reviews part of the political economy literature on exchange rate policy relevant to understanding the political motivations behind the Brazilian exchange rate policy. We shall first examine the distributive role of the exchange rate, and the way it unfolds in terms of the desired political goals. We will follow by analyzing exchange policy as indicative of government effciency prior to elections. Finally, we discuss fiscal policy from the point of view of political economy, in which the exchange rate results from the macroeconomic equilibrium. Over this review, the Brazilian exchange rate policy is discussed in light of the theories presented.

The political economy of exchange rate policy in Brazil: 1964-1999

This paper was developed as part of a broader research program on the political economy of exchange rate policies in Latin America and the Caribbean. We are grateful for helpful comments and suggestions from Jeff Frieden, Ernesto Stein, Jorge Streb, Marcelo Neri and seminar participants at Getulio Vargas Foundation, PUC-Rio, IDB workshop on The Political Economy of Exchange Rate Policies in Latin America and the Caribbean, and LACEA meeting in Buenos Aires. We thank René Garcia for providing us with a Fortran program for estimating the Markov Switching Model, Ilan Goldfajn for sending us updated estimates of the real exchange rate series of Goldfajn and Valdés (1996), Altamir Lopes and Ricardo Markwald for kindly furnishing data on Brazilian external accounts, and Carla Bernardes, Gabriela Domingues, Juliana Pessoa de Araújo, and, specially, Marcelo Pinheiro for excellent research assistant. Both authors thank CNPq for a research fellowship.

In search of exchange rate predictability : a study about accuracy, consistency, and granger causality of forecasts generated by a Taylor Rule Model

Este estudo investiga o poder preditivo fora da amostra, um mês à frente, de um modelo baseado na regra de Taylor para previsão de taxas de câmbio. Revisamos trabalhos relevantes que concluem que modelos macroeconômicos podem explicar a taxa de câmbio de curto prazo. Também apresentamos estudos que são céticos em relação à capacidade de variáveis macroeconômicas preverem as variações cambiais. Para contribuir com o tema, este trabalho apresenta sua própria evidência através da implementação do modelo que demonstrou o melhor resultado preditivo descrito por Molodtsova e Papell (2009), o “symmetric Taylor rule model with heterogeneous coefficients, smoothing, and a constant”. Para isso, utilizamos uma amostra de 14 moedas em relação ao dólar norte-americano que permitiu a geração de previsões mensais fora da amostra de janeiro de 2000 até março de 2014. Assim como o critério adotado por Galimberti e Moura (2012), focamos em países que adotaram o regime de câmbio flutuante e metas de inflação, porém escolhemos moedas de países desenvolvidos e em desenvolvimento. Os resultados da nossa pesquisa corroboram o estudo de Rogoff e Stavrakeva (2008), ao constatar que a conclusão da previsibilidade da taxa de câmbio depende do teste estatístico adotado, sendo necessária a adoção de testes robustos e rigorosos para adequada avaliação do modelo. Após constatar não ser possível afirmar que o modelo implementado provém previsões mais precisas do que as de um passeio aleatório, avaliamos se, pelo menos, o modelo é capaz de gerar previsões “racionais”, ou “consistentes”. Para isso, usamos o arcabouço teórico e instrumental definido e implementado por Cheung e Chinn (1998) e concluímos que as previsões oriundas do modelo de regra de Taylor são “inconsistentes”. Finalmente, realizamos testes de causalidade de Granger com o intuito de verificar se os valores defasados dos retornos previstos pelo modelo estrutural explicam os valores contemporâneos observados. Apuramos que o modelo fundamental é incapaz de antecipar os retornos realizados.

EU-Mercosur trade relations: impacts of exchange rate misalignments on tariffs

The issue of “trade and exchange rate misalignments” is being discussed at the G20, IMF and WTO, following an initiative by Brazil. The main purpose of this paper is to apply the methodology developed by the authors to exam the impacts of misalignment on tariffs in order to analyse the impacts of misalignments on the trade relations between two customs unions – the EU and Mercosur, as well as to explain how tariff barriers are affected. It is divided into several sections: the first summarises the debate on exchange rates at the WTO; the second explains the methodology used to determine exchange rate misalignments; the third and fourth summarises the methodology applied to calculate the impacts of exchange rate misalignments on the level of tariff protection through an exercise of ‘misalignment tariffication’; the fifth reviews the effects of exchange rate misalignments on tariffs and its consequences for the trade negotiations between the two areas; and the last concludes and suggests a way to move the debate forward in the context of regional arrangements

Serum progesterone concentration and conception rate of beef cows supplemented with ground corn after a fixed-time artificial insemination protocol

Avaliaram-se os efeitos de diferentes níveis de ingestão de suplemento com milho moído finamente (MF) em vacas de corte, mantidas em pasto, após inseminação artificial em tempo fixo (IATF), sobre a concentração sérica de progesterona (P4) no dia 7, e sobre a concepção no dia 28 pós IATF. Trezentas e sessenta e quatro vacas Brangus, multíparas lactantes, tiveram as atividades folicular e luteal sincronizadas por tratamento com benzoato de estradiol (Estrogin; 2,0mg IM) e inserção de dispositivo intravaginal de P4 (CIDR) no dia -11, seguido por tratamento com PGF2 α (Lutalyse; 25mg IM) no dia - 4, retirada do CIDR e remoção temporária de bezerros no dia -2, e tratamento com GnRH (Fertagyl; 100 µ g IM), IATF e retorno dos bezerros no dia 0. No dia 0, as vacas foram aleatoriamente distribuídas para receber um dos quatro tratamentos: G1 -2kg/dia de MF do dia 0 ao dia 21; G2 -2kg/dia de MF do dia 0 ao dia 7, e 6kg/dia de MF do dia 8 ao dia 21; G3 -6kg/dia de MF do dia 0 ao dia 7, e 2kg/dia de MF do dia 8 ao dia 21; G4 -6kg/dia de MF do dia 0 ao dia 21. Amostras de sangue foram colhidas no dia 7, e o diagnóstico de gestação foi realizado por ultrassonografia no dia 28. As vacas suplementadas com 2kg/dia de MF apresentaram maior concentração sérica de P4 no dia 7 em relação às vacas suplementadas com 6kg/dia (1,58 vs. 1,28ng/mL; P<0,01, EPM=0,08). As vacas do G4 apresentaram maior taxa de concepção em relação às vacas do G1 (58,4 vs. 41,9%, respectivamente; P<0,05). O nível de consumo do suplemento energético após a IATF é negativamente associado às concentrações séricas de P4, porém positivamente associado à taxa de concepção em vacas de corte em pasto.

Effects of topical levobunolol or fixed combination of dorzolamide-timolol or association of dorzolamide-levobunolol on intraocular pressure, pupil size, and heart rate in healthy cats

Estudaram-se e compararam-se os efeitos do levobunolol, da combinação fixa de dorzolamida 2%-timolol 0,5% e da associação de dorzolamida 2% com levobunolol 0,5% sobre a pressão intra-ocular (PIO), o diâmetro pupilar (DP), a freqüência cardíaca (FC) e a hiperemia conjuntival em 18 gatos saudáveis. PIO, DP, FC e hiperemia conjuntival foram aferidos diariamente, em três horários distintos (9h, 14h e 18h). Três grupos foram formados (n=6) e um olho de cada animal recebeu, aleatoriamente, uma gota de levobunolol (L), ou a combinação comercial à base de dorzolamida-timolol (DT), ou a associação de dorzolamida com levobunolol (DL). Parâmetros basais foram aferidos no primeiro dia (dia 0). Nos quatro dias consecutivos, os fármacos foram instilados às 8h e 20h e os parâmetros aferidos nos mesmos horários. Todos os parâmetros decresceram significativamente em relação aos valores basais (P<0,001) e não se observou hiperemia conjuntival. O levobunolol reduziu significativamente a PIO, o DP e a FC e o foi o fármaco que mais reduziu a FC. Não se observou efeito sinérgico na redução da PIO quando a dorzolamida foi adicionada ao levobulol.