Correcting the fixed-effect estimator for endogenous switching

In this paper, we propose a two-step estimator for panel data models in which a binary covariate is endogenous. In the first stage, a random-effects probit model is estimated, having the endogenous variable as the left-hand side variable. Correction terms are then constructed and included in the main regression.

Effect of nonnormal random components on level and power in group-randomized trials

The use of group-randomized trials is particularly widespread in the evaluation of health care, educational, and screening strategies. Group-randomized trials represent a subset of a larger class of designs often labeled nested, hierarchical, or multilevel and are characterized by the randomization of intact social units or groups, rather than individuals. The application of random effects models to group-randomized trials requires the specification of fixed and random components of the model. The underlying assumption is usually that these random components are normally distributed. This research is intended to determine if the Type I error rate and power are affected when the assumption of normality for the random component representing the group effect is violated. ^ In this study, simulated data are used to examine the Type I error rate, power, bias and mean squared error of the estimates of the fixed effect and the observed intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) when the random component representing the group effect possess distributions with non-normal characteristics, such as heavy tails or severe skewness. The simulated data are generated with various characteristics (e.g. number of schools per condition, number of students per school, and several within school ICCs) observed in most small, school-based, group-randomized trials. The analysis is carried out using SAS PROC MIXED, Version 6.12, with random effects specified in a random statement and restricted maximum likelihood (REML) estimation specified. The results from the non-normally distributed data are compared to the results obtained from the analysis of data with similar design characteristics but normally distributed random effects. ^ The results suggest that the violation of the normality assumption for the group component by a skewed or heavy-tailed distribution does not appear to influence the estimation of the fixed effect, Type I error, and power. Negative biases were detected when estimating the sample ICC and dramatically increased in magnitude as the true ICC increased. These biases were not as pronounced when the true ICC was within the range observed in most group-randomized trials (i.e. 0.00 to 0.05). The normally distributed group effect also resulted in bias ICC estimates when the true ICC was greater than 0.05. However, this may be a result of higher correlation within the data. ^

The Effect of Slum Redevelopment on Child Health Outcomes: Evidence from Mumbai

As the population of urban poor living in slums increases, governments are trying to relocate people into government-provided free housing. Slum redevelopment affects every part of a household’s livelihood, but most importantly the health and wellbeing of younger generations. This paper investigates the effect of slum redevelopment schemes on child stunting levels. Data was collected in forty-one buildings under the slum-redevelopment program in Mumbai. The study demonstrates through a fixed effect regression analysis that an additional year of living in the building is associated with an increase in the height-for-age Z-score by 0.124 standard deviations. Possible explanations include an improvement in the overall hygienic environment, sanitation conditions, indoor air pollution, and access to health and water facilities. However, anecdotal evidence suggests that water contamination, loss of livelihood and increased expenses could worsen health outcomes for residents. This study prompts more research on the health effects of slum redevelopment projects, which are becoming increasingly common in the rapidly urbanizing developing world.

Hand and ultrasonic instrumentation for orthograde root canal treatment of permanent teeth

Root canal treatment is a frequently performed dental procedure and is carried out on teeth in which irreversible pulpitis has led to necrosis of the dental pulp. Removal of the necrotic tissue remnants and cleaning and shaping of the root canal are important phases of root canal treatment. Treatment options include the use of hand and rotary instruments and methods using ultrasonic or sonic equipment. OBJECTIVES: The objectives of this systematic review of randomized controlled trials were to determine the relative clinical effectiveness of hand instrumentation versus ultrasonic instrumentation alone or in conjunction with hand instrumentation for orthograde root canal treatment of permanent teeth. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The search strategy retrieved 226 references from the Cochrane Oral Health Group Trials Register (7), the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) (12), MEDLINE (192), EMBASE (8) and LILACS (7). No language restriction was applied. The last electronic search was conducted on December 13th, 2007. Screening of eligible studies was conducted in duplicate and independently. RESULTS: Results were to be expressed as fixed-effect or random-effects models using mean differences for continuous outcomes and risk ratios for dichotomous outcomes with 95% confdence intervals. Heterogeneity was to be investigated including both clinical and methodological factors. No eligible randomized controlled trials were identifed. CONCLUSIONS: This review illustrates the current lack of published or ongoing randomized controlled trials and the unavailability of high-level evidence based on clinically relevant outcomes referring to the effectiveness of ultrasonic instrumentation used alone or as an adjunct to hand instrumentation for orthograde root canal treatment. In the absence of reliable research-based evidence, clinicians should base their decisions on clinical experience, individual circumstances and in conjunction with patients' preferences where appropriate. Future randomized controlled trials might focus more closely on evaluating the effectiveness of combinations of these interventions with an emphasis on not only clinically relevant, but also patient-centered outcomes.

Parâmetros genéticos para idade ao primeiro parto estimados por diferentes modelos para rebanhos da raça Nelore

Com objetivo de estimar parâmetros genéticos e estudar a utilização de diferentes efeitos em avaliações genéticas para idade ao primeiro parto (IPP) por diferentes modelos, foram utilizados registros de IPP de animais da raça Nelore, nascidos entre os anos de 1990 e 2005. Foram considerados os seguintes modelos (M): M1, incluindo o efeito fixo de GC1 (constituído pelos animais nascidos na mesma fazenda e ano), além da covariável, peso aos 365 dias de idade (efeito linear e quadrático), totalizando 24.263 registros de IPP; M2, considerando os efeitos fixos de GC1, ano e estação de parição, totalizando 59.792 registros de IPP e M3, incluindo os efeitos fixos de GC2 (agrupando os animais nascidos na mesma fazenda, ano e que conceberam no mesmo manejo reprodutivo), ano e estação de parição, totalizando 59.792 registros de IPP. As estimativas dos componentes de variância e herdabilidade e os valores genéticos (VG) foram obtidos pelo método da máxima verossimilhança restrita, com a inclusão da matriz de parentesco disponível. As diferenças esperadas na progênie (DEPs) foram obtidas dividindo os VG por dois. Após a obtenção desses resultados, foram realizadas correlações entre os VG e o ranqueamento das DEPs dos reprodutores para IPP, utilizando-se o procedimento PROC CORR (SAS, 2003). Ao se considerar o ano e a estação de parto nos modelos de análise (M2 e M3), esses produziram um maior R², indicando que tais modelos conseguiram explicar, em maior grau, as diferenças existentes entre os animais para IPP. As herdabilidades estimadas foram de baixa magnitude (0,14 e 0,15). As correlações entre os VG obtidas por diferentes modelos foram 0,73 (M1 x M2); 0,91 (M2 x M3) e 0,66 (M1 x M3).

Financial distress, financial constraint and investment decision: Evidence from Brazil

This paper analyses the presence of financial constraint in the investment decisions of 367 Brazilian firms from 1997 to 2004, using a Bayesian econometric model with group-varying parameters. The motivation for this paper is the use of clustering techniques to group firms in a totally endogenous form. In order to classify the firms we used a hybrid clustering method, that is, hierarchical and non-hierarchical clustering techniques jointly. To estimate the parameters a Bayesian approach was considered. Prior distributions were assumed for the parameters, classifying the model in random or fixed effects. Ordinate predictive density criterion was used to select the model providing a better prediction. We tested thirty models and the better prediction considers the presence of 2 groups in the sample, assuming the fixed effect model with a Student t distribution with 20 degrees of freedom for the error. The results indicate robustness in the identification of financial constraint when the firms are classified by the clustering techniques. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of carcass characteristics of Bos indicus and tropically adapted Bos taurus breeds selected for postweaning weight

Data from 9 studies were compiled to evaluate the effects of 20 yr of selection for postweaning weight (PWW) on carcass characteristics and meat quality in experimental herds of control Nellore (NeC) and selected Nellore (NeS), Caracu (CaS), Guzerah (GuS), and Gir (GiS) breeds. These studies were conducted with animals from a genetic selection program at the Experimental Station of Sertaozinho, Sao Paulo State, Brazil. After the performance test (168 d postweaning), bulls (n = 490) from the calf crops born between 1992 and 2000 were finished and slaughtered to evaluate carcass traits and meat quality. Treatments were different across studies. A meta-analysis was conducted with a random coefficients model in which herd was considered a fixed effect and treatments within year and year were considered as random effects. Either calculated maturity degree or initial BW was used interchangeably as the covariate, and least squares means were used in the multiple-comparison analysis. The CaS and NeS had heavier (P = 0.002) carcasses than the NeC and GiS; GuS were intermediate. The CaS had the longest carcass (P < 0.001) and heaviest spare ribs (P < 0.001), striploin (P < 0.001), and beef plate (P = 0.013). Although the body, carcass, and quarter weights of NeS were similar to those of CaS, NeS had more edible meat in the leg region than did CaS bulls. Selection for PWW increased rib-eye area in Nellore bulls. Selected Caracu had the lowest (most favorable) shear force values compared with the NeS (P = 0.003), NeC (P = 0.005), GuS (P = 0.003), and GiS (P = 0.008). Selection for PWW increased body, carcass, and meat retail weights in the Nellore without altering dressing percentage and body fat percentage.

The treatment of tardive dyskinesia: A systematic review and meta-analysis

This systematic review aimed to collate randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of various interventions used to treat tardive dyskinesia (TD) and, where appropriate, to combine the data for mete-analysis, Clinical trials were identified by electronic searches, handsearches and contact with principal investigators. Data were extracted independently by two reviewers, for outcomes related to improvement, deterioration, side-effects and drop out rates. Data were pooled using the Mantel-Haenzel Odds Ratio (fixed effect model). For treatments that had significant effects, the number needed to treat (NNT) was calculated. From 296 controlled clinical trials, data were extracted from 47 trials. For most interventions, we could identify no RCT-derived evidence of efficacy. A meta-analysis showed that baclofen, deanol and diazepam were no more effective than a placebo. Single RCTs demonstrated a lack of evidence of any effect for bromocriptine, ceruletide, clonidine, estrogen, gamma linolenic acid, hydergine, lecithin, lithium, progabide, seligiline and tetrahydroisoxazolopyridinol. The meta-analysis found that five interventions were effective: L-dopa, oxypertine, sodium valproate, tiapride and vitamin E; neuroleptic reduction was marginally significant. Data from single RCTs revealed that insulin, alpha methyl dopa and reserpine were more effective than a placebo. There was a significantly increased risk of adverse events associated with baclofen, deanol, L-dopa, oxypertine and reserpine. Metaanalysis of the impact of placebo (n=485) showed that 37.3% of participants showed an improvement. Interpretation of this systematic review requires caution as the individual trials identified tended to have small sample sizes. For many compounds, data from only one trial were available, and where meta-analyses were possible, these were based on a small number of trials. Despite these concerns, the review facilitated the interpretation of the large and diverse range of treatments used for TD. Clinical recommendations for the treatment of TD are made, based on the availability of RCT-derived evidence, the strength of that evidence and the presence of adverse effects. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Modelling the Distribution of Ischaemic Stroke-Specific Survival Time Using an EM-based Mixture Approach with Random Effects Adjustment

A two-component survival mixture model is proposed to analyse a set of ischaemic stroke-specific mortality data. The survival experience of stroke patients after index stroke may be described by a subpopulation of patients in the acute condition and another subpopulation of patients in the chronic phase. To adjust for the inherent correlation of observations due to random hospital effects, a mixture model of two survival functions with random effects is formulated. Assuming a Weibull hazard in both components, an EM algorithm is developed for the estimation of fixed effect parameters and variance components. A simulation study is conducted to assess the performance of the two-component survival mixture model estimators. Simulation results confirm the applicability of the proposed model in a small sample setting. Copyright (C) 2004 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

A rentabilidade das indústrias nacionais de cortiça: na ótica da gestão de tesouraria.

Dissertação de Mestrado Apresentado ao Instituto de Contabilidade e Administração do Porto para a obtenção do grau de Mestre em Contabilidade e Finanças, sob orientação de Mestre Adalmiro Álvaro Malheiro de Castro Andrade Pereira.

The determinants of trade credit: a study of portuguese industrial companies

Despite the relevance of trade credit as a source of business financing, the topic is far from being considered exhausted, especially because there is no general and integrated theory explaining the causes and consequences of trade credit.Our research aims to contribute towards the literature that studies the determinants for granting and receiving trade credit. In this sequence, the present study seeks to empirically test some theories about the reasons why companies grant and receive commercial credit. For this purpose we apply a fixed effect model to a panel of 11 040 Portuguese industrial companies, of which 360 are large companies and the majority 10 680 are Small and Medium Enterprises (SME) for the period between 2003 and 2009. We conclude that large companies (with greater access to credit market) serve as financial intermediaries to their clients with less access to finance. In addition, it was observed that the supplier companies use trade credit as a legal means of price discrimination. Finally, financially constrained enterprises, especially in times of financial crisis, use commercial credit as an alternative source of funding, endorsing the hypothesis of substitution between trade credit and bank credit.

Determinants of reelection in Portuguese municipal elections

This Work Project investigates the determinants of reelection using data on the 278 Portuguese mainland municipalities for the period 1976-2009. We implement a logit fixed effect model to control for the municipalities’ unobserved characteristics that remain constant over time. Political variables, such as the vote share of the incumbent’s party in previous election, the number of mayor’s consecutive mandates and abstention rate, are found to be relevant in explaining incumbent’s reelection. Moreover, as to the mayor’s individual characteristics, age and education contribute to explain reelection prospects. We also provide weak evidence that a higher degree of fiscal autonomy increases political turnover and that the good economic prospects of the municipality positively affect reelection. Finally, the residents’ level of education and the size of the municipal population have an explanatory power on mayor’s reelection. We perform several robustness checks to confirm these results.

Credit default swap (CDS) prediction model & trading strategy

This project focuses on the study of different explanatory models for the behavior of CDS security, such as Fixed-Effect Model, GLS Random-Effect Model, Pooled OLS and Quantile Regression Model. After determining the best fitness model, trading strategies with long and short positions in CDS have been developed. Due to some specifications of CDS, I conclude that the quantile regression is the most efficient model to estimate the data. The P&L and Sharpe Ratio of the strategy are analyzed using a backtesting analogy, where I conclude that, mainly for non-financial companies, the model allows traders to take advantage of and profit from arbitrages.

Under the veil of citations

Academics are often ranked on citation counts’, which is considered an adequate proxy for author's quality and reputation. This paper seeks to find what is behind a cited academic / a cited article. We constructed a rich dataset from Portuguese affiliated economists and use zero inflated negative binomial model. This procedure is appropriate for count outcomes, correcting for overdispersion and excess zeros. We also use a fixed effect poisson model to accomodate authors' unobserved heterogeneity. We analyze results in detail comparing with existing literature and making some theoretical considerations around.

Biomedical risk assessment as an aid for smoking cessation.

BACKGROUND: A possible strategy for increasing smoking cessation rates could be to provide smokers who have contact with healthcare systems with feedback on the biomedical or potential future effects of smoking, e.g. measurement of exhaled carbon monoxide (CO), lung function, or genetic susceptibility to lung cancer. OBJECTIVES: To determine the efficacy of biomedical risk assessment provided in addition to various levels of counselling, as a contributing aid to smoking cessation. SEARCH STRATEGY: We systematically searched the Cochrane Collaboration Tobacco Addiction Group Specialized Register, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials 2008 Issue 4, MEDLINE (1966 to January 2009), and EMBASE (1980 to January 2009). We combined methodological terms with terms related to smoking cessation counselling and biomedical measurements. SELECTION CRITERIA: Inclusion criteria were: a randomized controlled trial design; subjects participating in smoking cessation interventions; interventions based on a biomedical test to increase motivation to quit; control groups receiving all other components of intervention; an outcome of smoking cessation rate at least six months after the start of the intervention. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two assessors independently conducted data extraction on each paper, with disagreements resolved by consensus. Results were expressed as a relative risk (RR) for smoking cessation with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Where appropriate a pooled effect was estimated using a Mantel-Haenszel fixed effect method. MAIN RESULTS: We included eleven trials using a variety of biomedical tests. Two pairs of trials had sufficiently similar recruitment, setting and interventions to calculate a pooled effect; there was no evidence that CO measurement in primary care (RR 1.06, 95% CI 0.85 to 1.32) or spirometry in primary care (RR 1.18, 95% CI 0.77 to 1.81) increased cessation rates. We did not pool the other seven trials. One trial in primary care detected a significant benefit of lung age feedback after spirometry (RR 2.12; 95% CI 1.24 to 3.62). One trial that used ultrasonography of carotid and femoral arteries and photographs of plaques detected a benefit (RR 2.77; 95% CI 1.04 to 7.41) but enrolled a population of light smokers. Five trials failed to detect evidence of a significant effect. One of these tested CO feedback alone and CO + genetic susceptibility as two different intervention; none of the three possible comparisons detected significant effects. Three others used a combination of CO and spirometry feedback in different settings, and one tested for a genetic marker. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: There is little evidence about the effects of most types of biomedical tests for risk assessment. Spirometry combined with an interpretation of the results in terms of 'lung age' had a significant effect in a single good quality trial. Mixed quality evidence does not support the hypothesis that other types of biomedical risk assessment increase smoking cessation in comparison to standard treatment. Only two pairs of studies were similar enough in term of recruitment, setting, and intervention to allow meta-analysis.