Panel cointegration tests of the Fisher hypothesis

Recent empirical studies suggest that the Fisher hypothesis, stating that inflation and nominal interest rates should cointegrate with a unit parameter on inflation, does not hold, a finding at odds with many theoretical models. This paper argues that these results can be explained in part by the low power inherent in univariate cointegration tests and that the use of panel data should generate more powerful tests. In doing so, we propose two new panel cointegration tests, which are shown by simulation to be more powerful than other existing tests. Applying these tests to a panel of monthly data covering the period 1980:1 to 1999:12 on 14 OECD countries, we find evidence supportive of the Fisher hypothesis.

PPP, UIP and Fisher parity: speculation or rational expectations? Evidence for four Latin American countries

This work aims to test the equilibrium relations of two international macroeconomics models for Colombia, Chile, Mexico and Brazil. The first model is the rational expectation hypothesis (REH) where three key relations will be tested: Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), Uncovered Interest Rate Parity (UIP) and the Fisher Parity condition. The second model follows the line of though of Imperfect Knowledge Economics (IKE) where two equilibrium relations will be tested. According to IKE, even under the assumption that agents are rational, the presence of speculative behavior in financial markets helps explain the long swings often observed in the behavior of exchange rates. The results support the view that the predictions of the IKE model hold for Colombia, while those of the REH hold for both Brazil and Mexico. Mixed findings are obtained for Chile.

Panel cointegration tests of the Fisher effect

Most empirical evidence suggests that the Fisher effect, stating that inflation and nominal interest rates should cointegrate with a unit slope on inflation, does not hold, a finding at odds with many theoretical models. This paper argues that these results can be attributed in part to the low power of univariate tests, and that the use of panel data can generate more powerful tests. For this purpose, we propose two new panel cointegration tests that can be applied under very general conditions, and that are shown by simulation to be more powerful than other existing tests. These tests are applied to a panel of quarterly data covering 20 OECD countries between 1980 and 2004. The evidence suggest that the Fisher effect cannot be rejected once the panel evidence on cointegration has been taken into account. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Membrane associated transporter protein gene (SLC45A2) and the genetic basis of normal human pigmentation variation

This work is concerned with the genetic basis of normal human pigmentation variation. Specifically, the role of polymorphisms within the solute carrier family 45 member 2 (SLC45A2 or membrane associated transporter protein; MATP) gene were investigated with respect to variation in hair, skin and eye colour ― both between and within populations. SLC45A2 is an important regulator of melanin production and mutations in the gene underly the most recently identified form of oculocutaneous albinism. There is evidence to suggest that non-synonymous polymorphisms in SLC45A2 are associated with normal pigmentation variation between populations. Therefore, the underlying hypothesis of this thesis is that polymorphisms in SLC45A2 will alter the function or regulation of the protein, thereby altering the important role it plays in melanogenesis and providing a mechanism for normal pigmentation variation. In order to investigate the role that SLC45A2 polymorphisms play in human pigmentation variation, a DNA database was established which collected pigmentation phenotypic information and blood samples of more than 700 individuals. This database was used as the foundation for two association studies outlined in this thesis, the first of which involved genotyping two previously-described non-synonymous polymorphisms, p.Glu272Lys and p.Phe374Leu, in four different population groups. For both polymorphisms, allele frequencies were significantly different between population groups and the 272Lys and 374Leu alleles were strongly associated with black hair, brown eyes and olive skin colour in Caucasians. This was the first report to show that SLC45A2 polymorphisms were associated with normal human intra-population pigmentation variation. The second association study involved genotyping several SLC45A2 promoter polymorphisms to determine if they also played a role in pigmentation variation. Firstly, the transcription start site (TSS), and hence putative proximal promoter region, was identified using 5' RNA ligase mediated rapid amplification of cDNA ends (RLM-RACE). Two alternate TSSs were identified and the putative promoter region was screened for novel polymorphisms using denaturing high performance liquid chromatography (dHPLC). A novel duplication (c.–1176_–1174dupAAT) was identified along with other previously described single nucleotide polymorphisms (c.–1721C>G and c.–1169G>A). Strong linkage disequilibrium ensured that all three polymorphisms were associated with skin colour such that the –1721G, +dup and –1169A alleles were associated with olive skin in Caucasians. No linkage disequilibrium was observed between the promoter and coding region polymorphisms, suggesting independent effects. The association analyses were complemented with functional data, showing that the –1721G, +dup and –1169A alleles significantly decreased SLC45A2 transcriptional activity. Based on in silico bioinformatic analysis that showed these alleles remove a microphthalmia-associated transcription factor (MITF) binding site, and that MITF is a known regulator of SLC45A2 (Baxter and Pavan, 2002; Du and Fisher, 2002), it was postulated that SLC45A2 promoter polymorphisms could contribute to the regulation of pigmentation by altering MITF binding affinity. Further characterisation of the SLC45A2 promoter was carried out using luciferase reporter assays to determine the transcriptional activity of different regions of the promoter. Five constructs were designed of increasing length and their promoter activity evaluated. Constitutive promoter activity was observed within the first ~200 bp and promoter activity increased as the construct size increased. The functional impact of the –1721G, +dup and –1169A alleles, which removed a MITF consensus binding site, were assessed using electrophoretic mobility shift assays (EMSA) and expression analysis of genotyped melanoblast and melanocyte cell lines. EMSA results confirmed that the promoter polymorphisms affected DNA-protein binding. Interestingly, however, the protein/s involved were not MITF, or at least MITF was not the protein directly binding to the DNA. In an effort to more thoroughly characterise the functional consequences of SLC45A2 promoter polymorphisms, the mRNA expression levels of SLC45A2 and MITF were determined in melanocyte/melanoblast cell lines. Based on SLC45A2’s role in processing and trafficking TYRP1 from the trans-Golgi network to stage 2 melanosmes, the mRNA expression of TYRP1 was also investigated. Expression results suggested a coordinated expression of pigmentation genes. This thesis has substantially contributed to the field of pigmentation by showing that SLC45A2 polymorphisms not only show allele frequency differences between population groups, but also contribute to normal pigmentation variation within a Caucasian population. In addition, promoter polymorphisms have been shown to have functional consequences for SLC45A2 transcription and the expression of other pigmentation genes. Combined, the data presented in this work supports the notion that SLC45A2 is an important contributor to normal pigmentation variation and should be the target of further research to elucidate its role in determining pigmentation phenotypes. Understanding SLC45A2’s function may lead to the development of therapeutic interventions for oculocutaneous albinism and other disorders of pigmentation. It may also help in our understanding of skin cancer susceptibility and evolutionary adaptation to different UV environments, and contribute to the forensic application of pigmentation phenotype prediction.

A multi-hypothesis topological SLAM approach for loop closing on edge-ordered graphs

We present a method for topological SLAM that specifically targets loop closing for edge-ordered graphs. Instead of using a heuristic approach to accept or reject loop closing, we propose a probabilistically grounded multi-hypothesis technique that relies on the incremental construction of a map/state hypothesis tree. Loop closing is introduced automatically within the tree expansion, and likely hypotheses are chosen based on their posterior probability after a sequence of sensor measurements. Careful pruning of the hypothesis tree keeps the growing number of hypotheses under control and a recursive formulation reduces storage and computational costs. Experiments are used to validate the approach.

Test of the enemy release hypothesis: the native magpie moth prefers a native fireweed (Senecio pinnatifolius) to its introduced congener (S.Madagascariensis)

Abstract The enemy release hypothesis predicts that native herbivores will either prefer or cause more damage to native than introduced plant species. We tested this using preference and performance experiments in the laboratory and surveys of leaf damage caused by the magpie moth Nyctemera amica on a co-occuring native and introduced species of fireweed (Senecio) in eastern Australia. In the laboratory, ovipositing females and feeding larvae preferred the native S. pinnatifolius over the introduced S. madagascariensis. Larvae performed equally well on foliage of S. pinnatifolius and S. madagascariensis: pupal weights did not differ between insects reared on the two species, but growth rates were significantly faster on S. pinnatifolius. In the field, foliage damage was significantly greater on native S. pinnatifolius than introduced S. madagascariensis. These results support the enemy release hypothesis, and suggest that the failure of native consumers to switch to introduced species contributes to their invasive success. Both plant species experienced reduced, rather than increased, levels of herbivory when growing in mixed populations, as opposed to pure stands in the field; thus, there was no evidence that apparent competition occurred.

Age-related maculopathy : linking aetiology and pathophysiological changes to the ischaemia hypothesis

Age-related maculopathy (ARM) has remained a challenging topic with respect to its aetiology, pathomechanisms, early detection and treatment since the late 19th century when it was first described as its own entity. ARM was previously considered an inflammatory disease, a degenerative disease, a tumor and as the result of choroidal hemodynamic disturbances and ischaemia. The latter processes have been repeatedly suggested to have a key role in its development and progression. In vivo experiments under hypoxic conditions could be models for the ischaemic deficits in ARM. Recent research has also linked ARM with gene polymorphisms. It is however unclear what triggers a person's gene susceptibility. In this manuscript, a linking hypothesis between aetiological factors including ischaemia and genetics and the development of early clinicopathological changes in ARM is proposed. New clinical psychophysical and electrophysiological tests are introduced that can detect ARM at an early stage. Models of early ARM based upon hemodynamic, photoreceptor and post-receptoral deficits are described and the mechanisms by which ischaemia may be involved as a final common pathway are considered. In neovascular age-related macular degeneration (neovascular AMD), ischaemia is thought to promote release of vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) which induces chorioretinal neovascularisation. VEGF is critical in the maintenance of the healthy choriocapillaris. In the final section of the manuscript the documentation of the effect of new anti-VEGF treatments on retinal function in neovascular AMD is critically viewed.

Stochastic modelling of financial time series with memory and multifractal scaling

Financial processes may possess long memory and their probability densities may display heavy tails. Many models have been developed to deal with this tail behaviour, which reflects the jumps in the sample paths. On the other hand, the presence of long memory, which contradicts the efficient market hypothesis, is still an issue for further debates. These difficulties present challenges with the problems of memory detection and modelling the co-presence of long memory and heavy tails. This PhD project aims to respond to these challenges. The first part aims to detect memory in a large number of financial time series on stock prices and exchange rates using their scaling properties. Since financial time series often exhibit stochastic trends, a common form of nonstationarity, strong trends in the data can lead to false detection of memory. We will take advantage of a technique known as multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) that can systematically eliminate trends of different orders. This method is based on the identification of scaling of the q-th-order moments and is a generalisation of the standard detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) which uses only the second moment; that is, q = 2. We also consider the rescaled range R/S analysis and the periodogram method to detect memory in financial time series and compare their results with the MF-DFA. An interesting finding is that short memory is detected for stock prices of the American Stock Exchange (AMEX) and long memory is found present in the time series of two exchange rates, namely the French franc and the Deutsche mark. Electricity price series of the five states of Australia are also found to possess long memory. For these electricity price series, heavy tails are also pronounced in their probability densities. The second part of the thesis develops models to represent short-memory and longmemory financial processes as detected in Part I. These models take the form of continuous-time AR(∞) -type equations whose kernel is the Laplace transform of a finite Borel measure. By imposing appropriate conditions on this measure, short memory or long memory in the dynamics of the solution will result. A specific form of the models, which has a good MA(∞) -type representation, is presented for the short memory case. Parameter estimation of this type of models is performed via least squares, and the models are applied to the stock prices in the AMEX, which have been established in Part I to possess short memory. By selecting the kernel in the continuous-time AR(∞) -type equations to have the form of Riemann-Liouville fractional derivative, we obtain a fractional stochastic differential equation driven by Brownian motion. This type of equations is used to represent financial processes with long memory, whose dynamics is described by the fractional derivative in the equation. These models are estimated via quasi-likelihood, namely via a continuoustime version of the Gauss-Whittle method. The models are applied to the exchange rates and the electricity prices of Part I with the aim of confirming their possible long-range dependence established by MF-DFA. The third part of the thesis provides an application of the results established in Parts I and II to characterise and classify financial markets. We will pay attention to the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), the American Stock Exchange (AMEX), the NASDAQ Stock Exchange (NASDAQ) and the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX). The parameters from MF-DFA and those of the short-memory AR(∞) -type models will be employed in this classification. We propose the Fisher discriminant algorithm to find a classifier in the two and three-dimensional spaces of data sets and then provide cross-validation to verify discriminant accuracies. This classification is useful for understanding and predicting the behaviour of different processes within the same market. The fourth part of the thesis investigates the heavy-tailed behaviour of financial processes which may also possess long memory. We consider fractional stochastic differential equations driven by stable noise to model financial processes such as electricity prices. The long memory of electricity prices is represented by a fractional derivative, while the stable noise input models their non-Gaussianity via the tails of their probability density. A method using the empirical densities and MF-DFA will be provided to estimate all the parameters of the model and simulate sample paths of the equation. The method is then applied to analyse daily spot prices for five states of Australia. Comparison with the results obtained from the R/S analysis, periodogram method and MF-DFA are provided. The results from fractional SDEs agree with those from MF-DFA, which are based on multifractal scaling, while those from the periodograms, which are based on the second order, seem to underestimate the long memory dynamics of the process. This highlights the need and usefulness of fractal methods in modelling non-Gaussian financial processes with long memory.

The ultra-low friction of the articular surface is pH-dependent and is built on a hydrophobic underlay including a hypothesis on joint lubrication mechanism

In this study, the influence of pH on interfacial energy distributed over the phospholipids-bilayer surface model and the effect of hydrophobicity on coefficient of friction (f) were investigated by using microelectrophoresis. An important clinical implication of deficiency in hydrophobicity is the loss of phospholipids that is readily observed in osteoarthritis joints. This paper establishes the influence of pH on interfacial energy upon an increase f, which might be associated with a decrease of hydrophobicity of the articular surface.