Política fiscal e dívida pública no Brasil: uma análise para o Período 1994 2008

The paper presents a study of fiscal policy and public debt in Brazil from 1994 to 2008. We assert that fiscal policy in Brazil was conducted in accordance with a new macroeconomic model, and that the measures adopted in that framework resulted in the construction of a new fiscal model. The fiscal policy in this new system has the main role of debt sustainability, with a suitable revenue and spending policy, conducted to achieve the goals of a positive public sector primary result.

Privatização aspectos fiscais e dívida pública

Este trabalho analisa os efeitos do programa de desestatização brasileiro sobre acumulação da dívida pública no período 1995-1999. objetivo central avaliar se utilização de receitas auferidas com alienação de ativos estatais concessões de serviços públicos no abatimento de dívidas de curto prazo tem efeito significativo sobre redução ou contenção do crescimento da dívida pública alteração do seu perfil, com reflexos sobre as necessidades de financiamento do setor público. Como possível contribuição adicional, esta dissertação apresenta um conjunto de dados, em geral pouco conhecidos, relativos às empresas estatais, ao programa de desestatização dívida pública, considerados de interesse geral. Dentre os principais aspectos discutidos no trabalho destacam-se os seguintes, referentes ao período 1995-1999. economia de juros obtida por meio do uso de recursos da privatização no resgate da dívida mobiliária interna de emissão do Tesouro Nacional atingiu R$ 8,8 bilhões, contra R$ 0,5 bilhão que Tesouro deixou de arrecadar na forma de dividendos das empresas privatizadas. No que tange aos efeitos da privatização sobre os estoques de dívidas, calcularam-se reduções de R$ 27,6 bilhões R$ 30,8 bilhões no saldo nas emissões de títulos competitivos dessa dívida, respectivamente. redução da dívida líquida do setor público alcançou 8,4% do PIB, tendo as privatizações estaduais contribuído com 3,6% do PIB. Adicionalmente, as necessidades de financiamento do setor público foram reduzidas em 5,4% do PIB. Esses são alguns resultados obtidos, por meio de metodologia de cálculo descrita no trabalho utilizando-se dados efetivamente observados, com os valores em moeda corrente preços de dezembro de 1999. Acrescenta-se esses resultados melhoria do desempenho das estatais remanescentes de alguns indicadores fiscais, com impactos positivos sobre dívida e déficit públicos. análise dos resultados indica que contribuição da privatização para redução da dívida do setor público esforço de ajuste fiscal pode ser significativa, mesmo no curto prazo. utilização de receitas de privatização para abater diversas dívidas governamentais as dívidas transferidas para setor privado reduziram carga de juros incidentes sobre dívida, seu estoque déficit público no período sob análise. privatização possibilitou, ainda, melhoria do perfil da dívida reestruturação de passivos do setor público.

Os efeitos da poupança pública sobre o crescimento econômico: análise para um painel de países

Este artigo analisou as relações entre poupança pública e crescimento econômico. Inicialmente, a análise teórico-descritiva dessas relações mostrou que a poupança pública é um indicador de sustentabilidade fiscal mais completo do que o superávit primário e tende a apresentar efeitos mais positivos sobre o produto do que o superávit operacional. As equações estimadas e os testes de robustez dos resultados da posterior análise econométrica, que utilizou modelos de regressão múltipla para um painel de 38 nações, comprovaram, a elevados níveis de confiança, a hipótese de relação positiva entre as taxas de poupança pública e de crescimento econômico per capita indicando a direção de causalidade entre ambos, além de fornecerem resultados interessantes e consistentes sobre a forma de associação do desenvolvimento a outras variáveis. A conclusão central foi de que um aumento de uma unidade na taxa de poupança pública deve levar, em média, a uma elevação de 0,17 unidades na taxa de crescimento econômico per capita

In sickness and in health: protecting and supporting public investment in Europe. Bruegel Policy Contribution 2014/02, February 2014

The long-term decline in gross public investment in European Union countries mirrors the trend in other advanced economies, but recent developments have been different: public investment has increased elsewhere, but in the EU it has declined and even collapsed in the most vulnerable countries, exaggerating the output fall. The provisions in the EU fiscal framework to support public investment are very weak.The recently inserted ‘investment clause’ is almost no help. In the short term, exclusion of national co-funding of EU-supported investments from the fiscal indicators considered in the Stability and Growth Pact would be sensible. In the medium term, the EU fiscal framework should be extended with an asymmetric ‘golden rule’ to further protect public investment in bad times, while limiting adverse incentives in good times. During a downturn, a European investment programme is needed and the European Semester should encourage greater investment by member states with healthy public finances and low public investment rates. Reform and harmonisation of budgeting, accounting, transparency and project assessment is also needed to improve the quality of public investment.

Indicators of fiscal policy: design and applications for Chile

Includes bibliography

Fiscal insurance and debt management in OECD economies

Assuming the role of debt management is to provide hedging against fiscal shocks we consider three questions: i) what indicators can be used to assess the performance of debt management? ii) how well have historical debt management policies performed? and iii) how is that performance affected by variations in debt issuance? We consider these questions using OECD data on the market value of government debt between 1970 and 2000. Motivated by both the optimal taxation literature and broad considerations of debt stability we propose a range of performance indicators for debt management. We evaluate these using Monte Carlo analysis and find that those based on the relative persistence of debt perform best. Calculating these measures for OECD data provides only limited evidence that debt management has helped insulate policy against unexpected fiscal shocks. We also find that the degree of fiscal insurance achieved is not well connected to cross country variations in debt issuance patterns. Given the limited volatility observed in the yield curve the relatively small dispersion of debt management practices across countries makes little difference to the realised degree of fiscal insurance.

Does it cost to be virtuous? The macroeconomic effects of fiscal constraints

We study whether and how fiscal restrictions alter the business cycle features of macrovariables for a sample of 48 US states. We also examine the typical transmission properties of fiscal disturbances and the implied fiscal rules of states with different fiscal restrictions. Fiscal constraints are characterized with a number of indicators. There are similarities in second moments of macrovariables and in the transmission properties of fiscal shocks across states with different fiscal constraints. The cyclical response of expenditure differs in size and sometimes in sign, but heterogeneity within groups makes point estimates statistically insignificant. Creative budget accounting is responsible for the pattern. Implications for the design of fiscal rules and the reform of the Stability and Growth Pact are discussed.

Price differentials in monetary unions: The role of fiscal shocks

We study the effect of regional expenditure and revenue shocks on price differentials for47 US states and 9 EU countries. We identify shocks using sign restrictions on the dynamicsof deficits and output and construct two estimates for structural price differentials dynamics which optimally weight the information contained in the data for all units. Fiscal shocks explain between 14 and 23 percent of the variability of price differentials both in the US and in the EU. On average, expansionary fiscal disturbances produce positive price differential responses while distortionary balance budget shocks produce negative price differential responses. In a number of units, price differential responses to expansionary fiscal shocks are negative. Spillovers and labor supply effects partially explain this pattern while geographical, political, and economic indicators do not.

The elusive costs and the immaterial gains of fiscal contraints

We study whether and how fiscal restrictions alter the business cycle features macrovariables for a sample of 48 US states. We also examine the 'typical' transmission properties of fiscal disturbances and the implied fiscal rules of states with different fiscal restrictions. Fiscal constraints are characterized with a number of indicators. There are similarities in second moments of macrovariables and in the transmission properties of fiscal shocks across states with different fiscal constraints. The cyclical response of expenditure differs in size and sometimes in sign, but heterogeneity within groups makes point estimates statistically insignificant. Creative budget accounting isresponsible for the pattern. Implications for the design of fiscal rules and thereform of the Stability and Growth Pact are discussed.

Performance Report for Fiscal Year, 2005

I am pleased to present the performance report for the Iowa Department for the Blind for fiscal year 2005. This report is provided in compliance with sections 8E.210 and 216B.7 of the Code of Iowa. It contains valuable information about the services the Department and its partners provided for Iowans during the past fiscal year in the areas of vocational rehabilitation, library services, and resource management. Major accomplishments of the year included new food service opportunities in the Randolph-Sheppard program, extensive remodeling of the Adult Orientation and Adjustment Center, and continued national prominence in vocational rehabilitation as measured by the U.S. Rehabilitation Services Administration, which on June 13, 2005 released data on federal standards and indicators for the year ended September 30, 2004. Earnings ratios and the percentage of employment for vocational rehabilitation clients of the Department remain among the best in the nation. This is corroborated by a report released in September, 2005 by the U.S. Government Accountability Office, which tested and summarized datasets compiled by the U.S. Department of Education for the nation’s 80 vocational rehabilitation agencies. Overall, we met or exceeded 26 of 32 results targets included in this report. Key strategic challenges, developments, and trends are also discussed in the "Department Overview" that follows. Sincerely, Allen C. Harris Director, Iowa Department for the Blind

Performance Report for Fiscal Year, 2006

I am pleased to present the performance report for the Iowa Department for the Blind for fiscal year 2006. This report is provided in compliance with sections 8E.210 and 216B.7 of the Code of Iowa. It contains valuable information about the services the Department and its partners provided for Iowans during the past fiscal year in the areas of vocational rehabilitation, library services, and resource management. Major accomplishments of the year included successful administration of a federally-funded mentoring program (Pathfinders) that matches young adults ages 16-26 who are blind or visually impaired with mentors who also have vision loss, installed a state-of-the art digital recording studio in the library, and continued national prominence in vocational rehabilitation. Earnings ratios and the percentage of employment for vocational rehabilitation clients of the Department remain among the best in the nation, as measured by the U.S. Rehabilitation Services Administration, which on July 3, 2006 released data on federal standards and indicators for the year ended September 30, 2005. Overall, we met or exceeded 15 of 20 results targets included in this report. Key strategic challenges, developments, and trends are also discussed in the "Department Overview" that follows. Sincerely, Allen C. Harris Director, Iowa Department for the Blind

Performance Report for Fiscal Year, 2007

I am pleased to present the performance report for the Iowa Department for the Blind for fiscal year 2007. This report is provided in compliance with sections 8E.210 and 216B.7 of the Code of Iowa. It contains valuable information about the services the Department and its partners provided for Iowans during the past fiscal year in the areas of Vocational Rehabilitation, Independent Living, Library Services, and Resource Management. The Department determines its competitive success in a number of ways. We look at the federal standards and indicators to learn our ranking in relation to the performance of other public rehabilitation agencies. We compare our library's production and circulation figures with those from previous years to determine trends. We set our own standards for success by looking at such factors as the number of successful case closures, average hourly wage at case closure, skills training provided, and compliance with regulations. Results show that the Department is working positively toward achieving its strategic goals of increasing the independence and productivity of blind Iowans and improving access to information for blind Iowans. Major accomplishments of the year included the selection of our Library as the only agency authorized to distribute educational materials using the National Instructional Materials Accessibility Standard (NIMAS) to students in Iowa. Our Independent Living program received the Shining Star award at the Governor's Conference on Aging for its work with and outreach to older blind Iowans. The Department, the Iowa Braille School, and the Department of Education implemented new cooperative efforts to improve the coordination and delivery of services to blind and visually impaired students in Iowa. Finally, earnings ratios and the percentage of employment for vocational rehabilitation clients of the Department remain among the best in the nation, as measured by the U.S. Rehabilitation Services Administration, which on June 27, 2007 released data on federal standards and indicators for the year ended September 30, 2006. Overall, we met or exceeded 11 of 16 results targets included in this report. A discussion of the Department's services, customers, organizational structure, and budget appears in the "Department Overview" that follows. The success of the Department's programs is evident in the success achieved by blind Iowans. It is reflected in the many blind persons who can be seen traveling about independently, going to their jobs and to the community and family activities in which they participate. Sincerely, Allen C. Harris Director, Iowa Department for the Blind

Performance Report for Fiscal Year, 2008

I am pleased to present the performance report for the Iowa Department for the Blind for fiscal year 2008. This report is provided in compliance with sections 8E.210 and 216B.7 of the Code of Iowa. It contains valuable information about results achieved because of the services that we and our partners provided to blind and visually impaired Iowans during the past fiscal year in the areas of Vocational Rehabilitation, Independent Living, Library Services, and Resource Management. We determine our competitive success in a number of ways. We look at the federal standards and indicators to learn our ranking in relation to the performance of other public rehabilitation agencies. We compare our library's production and circulation figures with those from previous years to determine trends. We set our own standards for success by looking at such factors as the number of successful case closures, average hourly wage at case closure, skills training provided, and compliance with regulations. Results show that the Department is working positively toward achieving its strategic goals of increasing the independence and productivity of blind Iowans and improving access to information for blind Iowans. Major accomplishments of the year included:  The selection of our Library as one of eight libraries to receive the new digital talking book machines and books in digital media from the National Library Service for the Blind and Physically Handicapped. Priority for distribution of the machines is given to Library patrons who are veterans.  The Department, the Iowa Braille School, and the Department of Education have been promoting the new expanded core curriculum as part of their continued efforts to improve the coordination and delivery of services to blind and visually impaired students in Iowa.  The Department's five-year grant funded Pathfinders mentoring program ended this year. A total of 49 blind youths aged 16-26 were paired with successful blind adult mentors. Assessments of the program clearly showed that participation in the program had a measurable positive effect on the youth involved.  Finally, earnings ratios and the percentage of employment for vocational rehabilitation clients of the Department are among the best in the nation, as measured by the U.S. Rehabilitation Services Administration's standards and indicators for the year ended September 30, 2007. Overall, we met or exceeded 13 of 18 targets included in this report. A discussion of the Department's services, customers, and organizational structure, and budget appears in the "Department Overview" that follows. Information pertaining to performance results appears in the final section of this document. The success of the Department's programs is evident in the success achieved by blind Iowans. It is reflected in the many blind persons who can be seen traveling about independently, going to their jobs and to the community and family activities in which they participate. Sincerely, Karen A. Keninger, Director Iowa Department for the Blind

Política fiscal nos estados brasileiros e a lei de responsabilidade fiscal: uma análise do tipo de ajuste e da composição do gasto público

O trabalho analisa a trajetória da política fiscal dos Estados brasileiros entre os anos de 1986 e 2008, período que compreende a realização de um expressivo ajuste fiscal no Brasil e busca identificar qual o tipo de ajuste praticado pelos Estados, conceituados de acordo com o referencial teórico conhecido como “visão expectacional da política fiscal”. De forma complementar, o trabalho analisa se ao longo do processo de ajuste as metas de evolução da política fiscal, definidas pela Lei de Responsabilidade Fiscal, foram cumpridas. Desta forma, este trabalho se propõe a contribuir com o tema relacionado às finanças públicas brasileiras, em especial à análise das finanças dos governos subnacionais, e visa destacar o comportamento das contas públicas dos Estados brasileiros no período proposto. O trabalho está organizado em três capítulos. No primeiro capítulo é analisada a evolução das ações legais e institucionais que influenciaram e determinaram aos Estados brasileiros uma nova postura fiscal. O capítulo II traz o referencial teórico que na literatura ficou conhecido como “visão expectacional da política fiscal”, que sugere que determinados ajustes fiscais podem ter efeitos expansionistas sobre o nível de atividade econômica. O capítulo III procura analisar as contas dos Estados nos períodos assinalados para identificar o tipo do ajuste fiscal praticado. O objetivo é analisar a composição dos ajustes praticados, seus efeitos sobre as contas públicas dos Estados, e finalmente identificar o tipo de ajuste praticado. Complementarmente é analisado se os indicadores impostos pela Lei de responsabilidade Fiscal estão sendo cumpridos pelos Estados.